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Raft of bad news for the US.
A new report came out that says 97k kids tested positive in the last two weeks of july, in the US. This was before we decided to reopen schools.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
We've also passed 5 million total infected (though 40% are in 5 states :
As of this week, five states account for more than 40% of US infections: California (with the most cases in the country), Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia.
California has 545k, Florida 527k (FL is roughly half the population of Cali)
Texas has hit its highest 7 day positive test rate so far (19.41%)
Some kids got suspended after taking pics showing how crowded their HS was in Georgia. This got revoked after public outrage, then the GA high school went to remote learning after a high positive rate...
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On August 11 2020 00:30 Nevuk wrote:Raft of bad news for the US. A new report came out that says 97k kids tested positive in the last two weeks of july, in the US. This was before we decided to reopen schools. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.htmlWe've also passed 5 million total infected (though 40% are in 5 states : Show nested quote +As of this week, five states account for more than 40% of US infections: California (with the most cases in the country), Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia. California has 545k, Florida 527k (FL is roughly half the population of Cali) Texas has hit its highest 7 day positive test rate so far (19.41%) Some kids got suspended after taking pics showing how crowded their HS was in Georgia. This got revoked after public outrage, then the GA high school went to remote learning after a high positive rate...
If the suspension was for posting pictures of people without their knowledge or consent, then that sounds like a normal action. If they edited the faces out and still got suspended then it is a much clearer case.
The more interesting question is, does a high positive rate in schools translate into a lot of infected people from them or a decent amount of damage to the infected?
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From what I read of that story the explicit reason for the suspension was for painting the school in a bad light (as per the principal in a later audio recording by another student).
Incidentally, said school closed for two days after several positive cases.
PAULDING COUNTY, Ga. — A day after a Paulding County High School announced nine cases of COVID-19 among students and staff, school officials announced they will close for two days to disinfect.
North Paulding High School will have digital learning days on Monday and Tuesday, the Paulding County superintendent said in a letter to parents Sunday. Teachers will dole out assignments online Monday morning.
Officials said they consulted with the Georgia Department of Public health after three staff members and six students tested positive for the coronavirus just one week into the school year. All nine of those people were at school for at least a few days last week.
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On August 11 2020 01:05 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 00:30 Nevuk wrote:Raft of bad news for the US. A new report came out that says 97k kids tested positive in the last two weeks of july, in the US. This was before we decided to reopen schools. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.htmlWe've also passed 5 million total infected (though 40% are in 5 states : As of this week, five states account for more than 40% of US infections: California (with the most cases in the country), Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia. California has 545k, Florida 527k (FL is roughly half the population of Cali) Texas has hit its highest 7 day positive test rate so far (19.41%) Some kids got suspended after taking pics showing how crowded their HS was in Georgia. This got revoked after public outrage, then the GA high school went to remote learning after a high positive rate... If the suspension was for posting pictures of people without their knowledge or consent, then that sounds like a normal action. If they edited the faces out and still got suspended then it is a much clearer case. The more interesting question is, does a high positive rate in schools translate into a lot of infected people from them or a decent amount of damage to the infected?
Rules that are only enforced when they make the school look bad are a joke.
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On August 11 2020 01:05 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 00:30 Nevuk wrote:Raft of bad news for the US. A new report came out that says 97k kids tested positive in the last two weeks of july, in the US. This was before we decided to reopen schools. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.htmlWe've also passed 5 million total infected (though 40% are in 5 states : As of this week, five states account for more than 40% of US infections: California (with the most cases in the country), Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia. California has 545k, Florida 527k (FL is roughly half the population of Cali) Texas has hit its highest 7 day positive test rate so far (19.41%) Some kids got suspended after taking pics showing how crowded their HS was in Georgia. This got revoked after public outrage, then the GA high school went to remote learning after a high positive rate... If the suspension was for posting pictures of people without their knowledge or consent, then that sounds like a normal action. If they edited the faces out and still got suspended then it is a much clearer case. The more interesting question is, does a high positive rate in schools translate into a lot of infected people from them or a decent amount of damage to the infected?
They didn't edit faces out, though only 1-2 are even partially visible (News sites have been posting them unaltered, fwiw). They were suspended for unauthorized use of school images on social media, apparently.
While it's not THAT deadly to minors (US has had 86 die since pandemic began), there is probably some risk of long-term damage. It also spreads to the minors family, which is the larger concern (and teachers).
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So there was an interesting article from WSJ noting that, contrary to the magical thinking coming out of Sweden, sending kids back to school is not a good idea. I suppose it shouldn't really be a surprise.
Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.
Several studies and reports published in recent weeks found coronavirus infections among children of all ages at places ranging from schools to camps to homes. Other research suggested that kids, especially older ones, can be a driving force behind transmission. And some researchers found children carry high levels of Covid-19’s genetic material in their upper respiratory tract, which doesn’t mean they are transmitting the virus but that they potentially could.
Most of the studies have limitations, and more research is needed, experts say. Yet the new studies, together with reports of outbreaks among children at some schools overseas and a summer camp in Georgia, have persuaded many researchers that children aren’t as immune to Covid-19 as initially thought.
“Are they susceptible to catching the virus? Absolutely. Are they able to transmit the virus? Absolutely,” said Joelle Simpson, interim chief of emergency medicine at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C.
...
Researchers who examined an outbreak in an Israeli school for older children shortly after it reopened in May said two known coronavirus cases ultimately led to 153 students and 25 staff members—13.2% and 16.6%, respectively—testing positive for the virus. And the virus spread outside the school, to 87 close contacts.
Whether or not they die from it (and I'm not looking forward to thousands of them dying when millions go to school), kids sure seem to be great vectors for the spread of disease...
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On August 11 2020 01:44 LegalLord wrote:So there was an interesting article from WSJ noting that, contrary to the magical thinking coming out of Sweden, sending kids back to school is not a good idea. I suppose it shouldn't really be a surprise. Show nested quote +Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.
Several studies and reports published in recent weeks found coronavirus infections among children of all ages at places ranging from schools to camps to homes. Other research suggested that kids, especially older ones, can be a driving force behind transmission. And some researchers found children carry high levels of Covid-19’s genetic material in their upper respiratory tract, which doesn’t mean they are transmitting the virus but that they potentially could.
Most of the studies have limitations, and more research is needed, experts say. Yet the new studies, together with reports of outbreaks among children at some schools overseas and a summer camp in Georgia, have persuaded many researchers that children aren’t as immune to Covid-19 as initially thought.
“Are they susceptible to catching the virus? Absolutely. Are they able to transmit the virus? Absolutely,” said Joelle Simpson, interim chief of emergency medicine at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C.
...
Researchers who examined an outbreak in an Israeli school for older children shortly after it reopened in May said two known coronavirus cases ultimately led to 153 students and 25 staff members—13.2% and 16.6%, respectively—testing positive for the virus. And the virus spread outside the school, to 87 close contacts. Whether or not they die from it (and I'm not looking forward to thousands of them dying when millions go to school), kids sure seem to be great vectors for the spread of disease...
shhhh god emperor Trump has to be right about something for once
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On August 11 2020 01:05 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 00:30 Nevuk wrote:Raft of bad news for the US. A new report came out that says 97k kids tested positive in the last two weeks of july, in the US. This was before we decided to reopen schools. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.htmlWe've also passed 5 million total infected (though 40% are in 5 states : As of this week, five states account for more than 40% of US infections: California (with the most cases in the country), Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia. California has 545k, Florida 527k (FL is roughly half the population of Cali) Texas has hit its highest 7 day positive test rate so far (19.41%) Some kids got suspended after taking pics showing how crowded their HS was in Georgia. This got revoked after public outrage, then the GA high school went to remote learning after a high positive rate... If the suspension was for posting pictures of people without their knowledge or consent, then that sounds like a normal action. If they edited the faces out and still got suspended then it is a much clearer case. The more interesting question is, does a high positive rate in schools translate into a lot of infected people from them or a decent amount of damage to the infected?
Do you not have rules where it is allowed to post images of large groups of people without consent? Here in Germany, consent to having your image taken is very, very important, but out of practical reasons it doesn't apply to shots of masses of people (with no one person explicitly in the foreground). Publicizing an image of a cramped school cafeteria would be completely okay here.
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Its usually considered good form to blur faces of minors, but the 1A is much stronger than EU free speech laws so, if you want, its the wild wild west.
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On August 11 2020 01:54 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 01:05 Yurie wrote:On August 11 2020 00:30 Nevuk wrote:Raft of bad news for the US. A new report came out that says 97k kids tested positive in the last two weeks of july, in the US. This was before we decided to reopen schools. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.htmlWe've also passed 5 million total infected (though 40% are in 5 states : As of this week, five states account for more than 40% of US infections: California (with the most cases in the country), Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia. California has 545k, Florida 527k (FL is roughly half the population of Cali) Texas has hit its highest 7 day positive test rate so far (19.41%) Some kids got suspended after taking pics showing how crowded their HS was in Georgia. This got revoked after public outrage, then the GA high school went to remote learning after a high positive rate... If the suspension was for posting pictures of people without their knowledge or consent, then that sounds like a normal action. If they edited the faces out and still got suspended then it is a much clearer case. The more interesting question is, does a high positive rate in schools translate into a lot of infected people from them or a decent amount of damage to the infected? Do you not have rules where it is allowed to post images of large groups of people without consent? Here in Germany, consent to having your image taken is very, very important, but out of practical reasons it doesn't apply to shots of masses of people (with no one person explicitly in the foreground). Publicizing an image of a cramped school cafeteria would be completely okay here.
I don't know about Germany, but here if something is deemed newsworthy no permission is required even if it isn't a group shot. In fact, in general I think most places have reverse laws: if you don't want your photo published you need to have a good reason. That reason is usually a pretty low barrier, and lower still with minors, but there is no a priori requirement to request permission (even though it is always better to do so, of course).
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/us/paulding-school-crowded-halls-threats/index.html
Shouldn't really be surprising, but the girl who shared it now has threats against her. Various reasons why, but none of them acceptable.
(CNN)A teen who shared a photo of a crowded hallway at her Georgia high school last week says she has been receiving threats after the image went viral.
North Paulding High School sophomore Hannah Watters told CNN she and her family and friends have been receiving screenshots of group chats with threatening language against her.
One message said "I know where this girl lives," she said. Other threats included, "We're going to jump every girl named Hannah in the tenth grade," and, "Hannah is going to have a rough day at school on Monday," Hannah told Boris Sanchez Sunday night on CNN's "Newsroom."
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Northern Ireland26087 Posts
On August 11 2020 03:27 JimmiC wrote:It is really strange and we see it here but less percentage that people are so stuck to this belief that it isn't real that they get mad people who show that it is. I really don't know how to talk to people like this and sadly I have a close cousin who thinks it is a hoax and comes to my house every summer, but this year we can't have them because they could carry it, but more than that there is no way to avoid conversations about it over the course of a week. It is "lucky" that I have health challenges and that is a good excuse. Has anyone had any good success with convincing anyone who believes it is a hoax? I sent an article that talked about Jordan Petersen having it, thinking that because he listens to him that would work but it did nothing. Any suggestions? Or do I just wait it out and avoid? Here is the article. https://nationalpost.com/news/things-are-not-good-right-now-jordan-peterson-battling-covid-19-u-k-paper-reports
Don’t believe that is possible to do personally.
Those who accept its existence but are blasé about it can be convinced, those who legitimately think it’s a hoax are whackjobs who are almost certain to other have other weird beliefs that will pre-emptively discount out of hand any evidence you show them for all sorts of spurious reasons.
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Who knew a virus could have long term impacts on health? This isn’t new, this was the case for just about every flu outbreak in human history. There have been a non-insignificant number of people who have caught things like swine flu, suffer mild symptoms but have to deal with awful conditions like chronic fatigue.
It’s like people keep thinking the flu is just a cold.
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So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death.
Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India.
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My dad is on day 15 since he was diagnosed and he says he's doing pretty well, just a bit short of breath. Hopefully that condition continues and he doesn't have any truly terrible long lasting damage. He's eager to return to work but me and my brothers are slapping him over the phone trying to make sure he gets a complete clean bill from his doctors with a full read out of what kind of damage the virus did to him first.
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On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Show nested quote +Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India.
China would also be likely to hide data and also simply not count the dead at all, among other countries with high infection or death rates. Drone video shows chinese guards escorting unmasked Uyghur prisoners. The early stages of the infection involved local government officials concealing the extent of transmissibility.
However, India is less further along in time-since-exposure.
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On August 11 2020 13:27 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. China would also be likely to hide data and also simply not count the dead at all, among other countries with high infection or death rates. Drone video shows chinese guards escorting unmasked Uyghur prisoners. The early stages of the infection involved local government officials concealing the extent of transmissibility. However, India is less further along in time-since-exposure.
Are you guys still on China? And gg for slipping the uyghurs in here (not that it isn't a real thing, it's just that it has NOTHING to do here where you answer to an India post. Or you wanted to speak about Cachemire maybe? lol). At some point you should really remove your partisan goggles. Just try to look at thing for what they are.
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EPT
