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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On August 11 2020 14:36 Furikawari wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 13:27 Danglars wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. China would also be likely to hide data and also simply not count the dead at all, among other countries with high infection or death rates. Drone video shows chinese guards escorting unmasked Uyghur prisoners. The early stages of the infection involved local government officials concealing the extent of transmissibility. However, India is less further along in time-since-exposure. Are you guys still on China? And gg for slipping the uyghurs in here (not that it isn't a real thing, it's just that it has NOTHING to do here where you answer to an India post. Or you wanted to speak about Cachemire maybe? lol). At some point you should really remove your partisan goggles. Just try to look at thing for what they are.
I'm responding to someone making a superlative (unlike ANY of the other countries with...). Please confine yourself to contradicting evidence, or logical argument, or I must ask "So?"
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On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Show nested quote +Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India.
India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus.
One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense.
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On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense.
That theory doesn't really seem very credible.
If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves.
But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus:
1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better.
2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis.
Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm.
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On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense.
Both India and Brazil seem rather strong counterexamples to that theory. Brazil is young and sunny, yet increasingly the numbers look worse than the USA.
I don't think India is willfully hiding numbers. I think they are just not equipped to handle this in the first place.
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On August 11 2020 18:19 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. Both India and Brazil seem rather strong counterexamples to that theory. Brazil is young and sunny, yet increasingly the numbers look worse than the USA. I don't think India is willfully hiding numbers. I think they are just not equipped to handle this in the first place.
I mean that's obvious. They have a billion people living there and a lot of them in very squalid conditions. The Netflix Documentary: Pandemic has a whole section on what the Swine Flu epidemic was like in India, and about how people in rural areas needed to travel hundreds of miles just to get to a hospital that had a respirator. And that was Swine Flu.
Coronavirus is WAY more contagious than Swine Flu ever was.
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On August 11 2020 15:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. That theory doesn't really seem very credible. If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves. But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus: 1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better. 2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis. Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm.
Your theory doesn't seem credible considering we aren't seeing any massive bodybag conditions in the third world.
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On August 12 2020 01:05 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 15:39 LegalLord wrote:On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. That theory doesn't really seem very credible. If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves. But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus: 1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better. 2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis. Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm. Your theory doesn't seem credible considering we aren't seeing any massive bodybag conditions in the third world.
Just like we didn't see a rise in the southern states ? Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it isn't going to be true in the next few months, at least for India.
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On August 12 2020 01:05 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 15:39 LegalLord wrote:On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. That theory doesn't really seem very credible. If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves. But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus: 1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better. 2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis. Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm. Your theory doesn't seem credible considering we aren't seeing any massive bodybag conditions in the third world. You mean stuff like this?
https://www.businessinsider.nl/photos-brazil-mass-graves-experts-anticipate-covid-19-deaths-2020-5/
And that was from May, I don't think things have improved there since.
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Do they even generally use bodybags in the third world? I would envisage more of a mass grave scenario than body bags in a really poor rural village.
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Northern Ireland27234 Posts
On August 12 2020 01:05 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2020 15:39 LegalLord wrote:On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. That theory doesn't really seem very credible. If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves. But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus: 1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better. 2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis. Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm. Your theory doesn't seem credible considering we aren't seeing any massive bodybag conditions in the third world.
That’s not credible but India having a lot of sunshine will mitigate a potential pandemic is?
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On August 12 2020 02:07 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2020 01:05 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 15:39 LegalLord wrote:On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. That theory doesn't really seem very credible. If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves. But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus: 1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better. 2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis. Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm. Your theory doesn't seem credible considering we aren't seeing any massive bodybag conditions in the third world. That’s not credible but India having a lot of sunshine will mitigate a potential pandemic is?
There are a lot of demographic trends that correlate with covid morbidity, one is Vitamin D Deficiency. That you don't know this suggests that you should expand your sourcing for C19 stories outside whatever sources you currently use.
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On August 08 2020 07:16 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2020 06:32 Elroi wrote:On August 08 2020 03:00 LegalLord wrote:
Failing to close schools in a timely fashion was likely what hurt New York more than anything else in the first wave. I wonder if Cuomo’s insistence on opening schools will lead to the same consequences once more.
Why do you think that? Do you have some kind of source to back that up? All I have seen from Sweden is that keeping the schools open turned out to be relatively unproblematic. We had community spread during a big part of the spring but only about 1% of the identified cases were children (that means that children are very underrepresented). We also haven't had any deaths among children and only one teacher has died so far in the country ( source in Swedish). Since we have about 240 000 active teachers, I would say they are probably a heavily underrepresented group among the victims of the disease. Those results hardly justify the closing of schools even in places with relatively high levels of community spread in my opinion. It's less of a problem that children will get sick and die and more of a problem that children are notorious vectors for spreading disease to adults they come in contact with (parents, teachers, staff, etc). This is true well beyond coronavirus in particular, but there have been a decent number of reports linked throughout this thread of similar such events - illness after early school opening, summer camp coronavirus spread, etc. - that it's not that hard to see what follows. And in the US, there has already been significantly more than one teacher death from coronavirus. Not hard to see that there will be more.
Again, do you have any statistics to support your claim that children are "notorious vectors" for spreading the coronavirus? As far as I know, scientists are yet to prove that children spread the disease at all. Also, while the experience in Sweden shows that working in a school during this pandemic is obviously not without any kind of danger, it shows that schools are significantly safer than most other workplaces. If that isn't safe enough to open schools after the summer you might as well just keep them closed forever because of the - to the children atleast - much greater threat of school shootings.
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Northern Ireland27234 Posts
On August 12 2020 05:15 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2020 02:07 Wombat_NI wrote:On August 12 2020 01:05 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 15:39 LegalLord wrote:On August 11 2020 15:24 cLutZ wrote:On August 11 2020 12:14 LegalLord wrote:So, India. It looks quite bad there, and the consensus is that it's probably a lot worse than it looks. That's primarily because unlike any of the other countries with high infection or death rates, India would not only be likely to hide data but also to simply not count the dead at all. This article suggests that, given that only about 20% of deaths have a medically registered cause of death, their real number is probably more like 5 times the already alarming 45k dead. Probably even more if you count the people whose death isn't even accounted for, much less given a cause of death. Death registration and MCCD
Do the reported COVID-19 deaths reflect the true picture? Before we get into this, we need to understand the prevailing coverage of death registration and MCCD in India. According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.
The COVID-19 deaths compiled by States predominantly include deaths occurring in COVID-19-designated facilities among reported COVID-19 cases. Hence, suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals may not be reported. Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death (testing not done or results not available); this may not be captured. This is possible in the context of a prevailing systemic under-registration of deaths and the poor coverage of MCCD. This may be more pronounced in rural and semi-urban areas where there is poor access to health facilities and/or qualified medical doctors. Hence, we need to adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD to arrive at the correct estimate of COVID-19 deaths.
Estimated COVID-19 deaths
To adjust for the prevailing under-registration of deaths and poor coverage of MCCD, we multiplied the reported COVID-19 deaths by a multiplication factor. It was 5.29 for India and calculated as the inverse of 18.9% (the coverage of MCCD among total deaths based on the 2018 CRS and 2017 MCCD reports). This gave a total of 1,88,938 estimated COVID-19 deaths taking the deaths per million population to 138. This is in contrast to the widely prevailing notion that deaths are very low in India. India is in a high sun (aka Vit D) and high normal virus area. I also think its fairly low average age (I haven't looked this part up). If true, its a very strong argument against them falsifying deaths, and a strong argument about the inherent properties of the virus. One of the increasingly powerful theories of the C19 is that previous viruses provide some defense, sunlight provides defense, youth is a defense, and healthiness is a defense. That theory doesn't really seem very credible. If India simply isn't naturally very vulnerable, you'd probably see few if any signs of a heavy infection. That's clearly not the case, because their official numbers are quite alarming in and of themselves. But furthermore, if India were, for the sake of argument, a country with such questionable medical and government infrastructure that, independent of the virus: 1. People could die and it'd never be reported, or not for a long time, and no one would know any better. 2. Deaths happen without a certified cause of death on a very regular basis. Well, maybe you might think that this cause of death, too, would tend to be under-reported. Hmm. Your theory doesn't seem credible considering we aren't seeing any massive bodybag conditions in the third world. That’s not credible but India having a lot of sunshine will mitigate a potential pandemic is? There are a lot of demographic trends that correlate with covid morbidity, one is Vitamin D Deficiency. That you don't know this suggests that you should expand your sourcing for C19 stories outside whatever sources you currently use.
On a macro level? In the summer anyway outside of dietary vitamin D relatively short periods of exposure to sunlight, even with a good chunk of your body covered up.
Individuals may make themselves more vulnerable by allowing themselves to be deficient in vitamin D, I’m unsure whether say in the European summer for example you’re going to have a huge amount of vitamin D deficiency.
In India’s case, and as per general healthiness being a comorbid factor with Covid, widespread poverty to a level that is alien to the West and the accompanying malnutrition that that brings should be a negative factor in how it impacts India.
Plus the aforementioned problems of infrastructure and isolation of rural areas to basic services and cataloguing stuff.
Would seem considerably more likely to me that India are undercounting through no ill intent but due to the pre-existing problems of infrastructure and poverty that impact all sorts of things outside of Covid.
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Children can get covid. They can almost certainly spread it, but it isn't proven yet. It would be more accurate to say children are notorious vectors for almost all diseases.
Here's a snippet about the latest study.
Yet the latest research indicates children may be carriers just as much as adults. Even when experiencing only a mild or moderate case, children under the age of five might have anywhere between 10 to 100 times as much of Covid-19’s genetic material, viral RNA, in their upper respiratory tracts as older children and adults, according to a study published last month in the journal JAMA Pediatrics.
The study didn’t show children were able to transmit the virus. Yet researchers say the findings suggest children are likely capable of spreading the coronavirus.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-research-points-to-children-carrying-transmitting-coronavirus-11596978001
And Israel and France already had school closures due to covid spread.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-shuts-some-schools-as-coronavirus-cases-jump-after-reopening-11591203323
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On August 12 2020 12:46 Nevuk wrote:Children can get covid. They can almost certainly spread it, but it isn't proven yet. It would be more accurate to say children are notorious vectors for almost all diseases. Here's a snippet about the latest study. Show nested quote +
Yet the latest research indicates children may be carriers just as much as adults. Even when experiencing only a mild or moderate case, children under the age of five might have anywhere between 10 to 100 times as much of Covid-19’s genetic material, viral RNA, in their upper respiratory tracts as older children and adults, according to a study published last month in the journal JAMA Pediatrics.
The study didn’t show children were able to transmit the virus. Yet researchers say the findings suggest children are likely capable of spreading the coronavirus.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-research-points-to-children-carrying-transmitting-coronavirus-11596978001 And Israel and France already had school closures due to covid spread. https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-shuts-some-schools-as-coronavirus-cases-jump-after-reopening-11591203323
Study also reminds the audience that children are ridiculously unlikely to get COVID and die. 45 children in a population of 300,000+ have died, but spotty data on which of those had pre-existing conditions.
By the way, it's nearly criminal that you have to read until the 17th paragraph to discover
The study didn’t show children were able to transmit the virus. Yet researchers say the findings suggest children are likely capable of spreading the coronavirus.
Criminal also to not divide up the age groups in summer camps:
Other reports and studies point to children as transmitters. At the overnight summer camp in Georgia, 260, or 76%, of campers, staff members and trainees whose test results were available were infected by Covid-19 shortly after arriving in June, according to a report released recently by the CDC. Most of the cases, 231, were in people age 17 or younger.
Mid-teens and late-teens are well established to spread it. When we're talking about actual children, studies and journalists must be able to separate the under-12 (or thereabouts) groups to actually talk about them. (And pointing to a single summer camp that had a problem should have been weighed against the hundreds in that state that didn't have the same problems)
In a study out of South Korea, researchers attempted to trace the contacts of roughly 5,700 people, including about 150 kids ages 19 and younger, who had the first identified or documented cases of Covid-19. The researchers found that children between 10 and 19 years old transmitted the virus within their own households at the same rate as adults of certain ages.
Children under the age of 10 didn’t spread the virus as much, according to the study, which the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases posted last month.
I guess I should award some points for including a semi-useful breakdown from a very old study. But that article committed so many journalistic fouls it's laughable. It doesn't rise to its title of "research shows" but more like "a couple professors and researchers postulate and speculate." A kind of hedge between what we already knew about late teens, convoluted with calling them under the header "children," and not being honest with the limited breakdowns.
There are currently efforts underway to crowd-source better information from the multitudes of summer camps to actually determine if elementary schools should open with restrictions focused around the adults working there.
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who wants to pool money for the russian vaccine? 1M per shot, we'll split the dose
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TBH I'm honestly more afraid of a rushed Russian (or frankly American) disease for my own health than of C19.
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The vaccine will properly first be available for the common people in 2022, first high risk job and high risk groups should get it.
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EPT
