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On July 31 2020 04:50 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2020 01:54 cLutZ wrote:On July 31 2020 01:33 Simberto wrote:On July 31 2020 01:27 cLutZ wrote:On July 31 2020 00:27 JimmiC wrote:On July 31 2020 00:21 cLutZ wrote:
Its just more evidence that plan lockdown and quarantine was never a plan at all. It is the best we have, it is clear now that herd immunity is impossible with out massive deaths and maybe simply not possible. And if you start to let it get to the point that Italy Spain New York, and now many southern states get you start to hear about the 9 year old in Florida who died with no underlying conditions because she was turned away from an overburdened hospital because she only had a fever. Lockdown followed by quarantining those that contact anyone along with social distancing and masks once it is at a low enough level to keep the r at below 1 is the best anyone has right now. Not a plan. Try again. How is that not a plan? Because its the California plan, except vaguer. Disastrous economically on the front end, massive outbreak anyways on the back end. "once it is at a low enough level to keep the r at below 1 " ^This is the tell. Its an unattainable goal. States that had shelter at home for 2 months+ did not achieve this. In other words, he has proposed something fundamentally dishonest. Here are honest plans: 1) Permanent closing of indoor group gatherings. Sporting events, concerts, restaurants are no longer legal businesses in our country for at least 2 years. Stop pretending this is a week to week or month to month thing. Embrace the political backlash, don't be the pilot that keeps telling passengers takeoff has been delayed another 15 minutes for 12 hours. 2) Sweden. Aka, treat C19 like the 1968 Hong Kong Flu, which is the most comparable recent historical pandemic. No lockdown, expect your people to be a serious populace. Aka, the treat adults like adults plan. 3) Actual quarantine. 21 Days where anyone found on the streets will be arrested and locked in solitary for 21 days. Followed by draconian track and trace. This would be close to "Plan East Asia" except we make it even more draconian because we don't have the luxury of an East Asian high intelligence, highly socially compliant, populace. To this and previous posts: When did your mind change on the previously-successful European model, or which country is your best current example that European-style lockdowns were a mistake/are a mistake now? Is America’s state system, on-average aimed at blunting the exponential curve to aid hospitals, effectively becomes a Sweden system albeit with more economic destruction? I’m talking primarily about each state opening up at staggered times, and reclosing, and the inter-state spread facilitated by that. Lastly, is anything gained now with the Texas and Florida model of opening up and reclosing in terms of keeping hospitals below capacity? Excess deaths from hospital overcapacity seems like a good thing to avoid, though there’s an obvious trade off with economic damage the more you do with that.
1. I was never convinced the lockdown plan was a plan, because now one could ever describe successful follow up to it. Another factor was the problem of "2 more weeks", wherein no on had a fixed plan. This queued me up to suspicion. Also, I'm kinda hard pressed to even have called the European plan successful. Lots of European countries did very poorly. Germany is an outlier among big European countries, but its full of Germans. I'd bet German-Americans are doing pretty well.
2. California was my first point of confirmation of my skepticism. I'd say recent surges in Spain and Germany are further confirmation. If California's very proactive plan failed, I don't think any similar plan could work in the US.
3. "Is America’s state system, on-average aimed at blunting the exponential curve to aid hospitals, effectively becomes a Sweden system albeit with more economic destruction?"
Yes it is, but it doesn't, from my POV have much to do with staggering or interstate movement (aside from NY/NJ residents seeding the virus elsewhere on the east coast, but that's one specific case). Rather, the problem is that ambient virus levels never dropped low enough even in the most locked down states.
4. "Lastly, is anything gained now with the Texas and Florida model of opening up and reclosing in terms of keeping hospitals below capacity? Excess deaths from hospital overcapacity seems like a good thing to avoid, though there’s an obvious trade off with economic damage the more you do with that."
Possibly. There is the idea of perfect titration in the hammer and dance. But, its incredibly hard to coordinate. NY never ended up using its emergency hospitals, but FL and TX are having problems with overcapacity largely because the previous set of lockdowns resulted in pent up demand for non-C19 hospital use. Thus, their caseload spikes coincided with a spike in people who put off getting a lump looked at for 2 months, and other things of that nature.
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On July 31 2020 04:04 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2020 01:12 Kipsate wrote:
Parts of Rotterdam & Amsterdam are going to institute localing mask rules
We won't have a nationwide one because our national health institute says there is no scientific evidence that non-medical masks work. Which feels a bit eh given that like 80% of Europe has it but whatever. And here I thought America had a virtual monopoly on the “masks don’t work” crowd. Another strike against American exceptionalism.
Just to clarify, if the NL health institute is on the same page as the Swedish one, then the argument isn't that "masks don't work" but that masks don't reduce the spread. Masks are very effective in specific environments where social distancing can't be enforced.
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I work as a supplier for retailers such as Walmart, CVS etc.
Recently they’ve added a question during health screening (before we enter the store to do our service call) on whether or not I have already contracted covid. Merely curious if Im obligated to divulge this information or not?
Again gov is lacking severe transparency when it comes to things like these. I’ve recently become bombarded by the blood bank to donate blood, as well.
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![[image loading]](https://i.redd.it/biwjk01jp1e51.png)
This is the school plan for the state of Minnesota. Every county is going to be updated on a 2 week basis for the cases per capita to decide what the schooling plan is going to be. The picture above is what the state would be about if school started today.
This seems like exactly what people are looking for I haven't seen any other state do this.
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The UK has just come up with the worst, most stupid combination of lockdown rules i've seen yet.
We are not allowed to have people outside of our household in our houses, but we are allowed *encouraged even* to go to the pub and out for meals in restaurants.
In Leicester they have reopened the pubs on the exact same weekend that the new lockdown came into effect.
Its fucking stupid man.
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TLADT24920 Posts
On July 31 2020 08:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
The UK has just come up with the worst, most stupid combination of lockdown rules i've seen yet.
We are not allowed to have people outside of our household in our houses, but we are allowed *encouraged even* to go to the pub and out for meals in restaurants.
In Leicester they have reopened the pubs on the exact same weekend that the new lockdown came into effect.
Its fucking stupid man.
ya, that seems quite silly lol.
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On July 31 2020 08:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
The UK has just come up with the worst, most stupid combination of lockdown rules i've seen yet.
We are not allowed to have people outside of our household in our houses, but we are allowed *encouraged even* to go to the pub and out for meals in restaurants.
In Leicester they have reopened the pubs on the exact same weekend that the new lockdown came into effect.
Its fucking stupid man.
Oo
I thought the UK learned its lesson after being one of the most effected countries in Europe.
Guess not.
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On July 31 2020 07:20 Sermokala wrote:This is the school plan for the state of Minnesota. Every county is going to be updated on a 2 week basis for the cases per capita to decide what the schooling plan is going to be. The picture above is what the state would be about if school started today. This seems like exactly what people are looking for I haven't seen any other state do this.
Who's looking for half the state completely reopening with all students together? Except for Trump and other people who still don't take covid seriously? Hybrid, rather than 100% online/remote, will be unsafe enough as it is. If I had children / was teaching in the orange regions, I'd be flipping out right now.
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That school map is terrifying. So unbelievably happy I don't have kids right now
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On July 31 2020 06:39 Emnjay808 wrote:
I work as a supplier for retailers such as Walmart, CVS etc.
Recently they’ve added a question during health screening (before we enter the store to do our service call) on whether or not I have already contracted covid. Merely curious if Im obligated to divulge this information or not?
Again gov is lacking severe transparency when it comes to things like these. I’ve recently become bombarded by the blood bank to donate blood, as well.
Hmm, I don't think your employers are allowed to ask your health questions but not sure if that way in the US. I'd say no.
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I finally have a friend who got confirmed covid; he was sick for 2-3 with small fever and recovered; says he felt like shit for a few days and got better, like a normal cold. 34 y/o male, very healthy individual.
At this point I think it seems clear covid will last a few years, draconians lockdowns should be thrown of the window, people should social distance, wear mask, isolate vulnerable people and dare I say start exposing young people. School and work should be resumed, they can't be delayed for years.
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The school problem is just another example of shutdowners having no plan and an unfortunately true theory that people can't be responsible. Schools should be largely open and we should be able to trust parents to opt out if grandma lives at home, and they should be trusted not to bring kids over to grandmas house.
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On July 31 2020 10:52 Erasme wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2020 06:39 Emnjay808 wrote:
I work as a supplier for retailers such as Walmart, CVS etc.
Recently they’ve added a question during health screening (before we enter the store to do our service call) on whether or not I have already contracted covid. Merely curious if Im obligated to divulge this information or not?
Again gov is lacking severe transparency when it comes to things like these. I’ve recently become bombarded by the blood bank to donate blood, as well. Hmm, I don't think your employers are allowed to ask your health questions but not sure if that way in the US. I'd say no.
Theyre not employers, just our accounts/customers. The health screening they practiced used to be run-of-the-mill "do u exhibit X symptoms" etc and a temp check at the end. Now they recently added "have u tested positive for COVID?" as the last question, and im like "NANI???". Isnt that personal medical information? Ill just lie lol.
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On July 31 2020 11:21 Emnjay808 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2020 10:52 Erasme wrote:On July 31 2020 06:39 Emnjay808 wrote:
I work as a supplier for retailers such as Walmart, CVS etc.
Recently they’ve added a question during health screening (before we enter the store to do our service call) on whether or not I have already contracted covid. Merely curious if Im obligated to divulge this information or not?
Again gov is lacking severe transparency when it comes to things like these. I’ve recently become bombarded by the blood bank to donate blood, as well. Hmm, I don't think your employers are allowed to ask your health questions but not sure if that way in the US. I'd say no. Theyre not employers, just our accounts/customers. The health screening they practiced used to be run-of-the-mill "do u exhibit X symptoms" etc and a temp check at the end. Now they recently added "have u tested positive for COVID?" as the last question, and im like "NANI???". Isnt that personal medical information? Ill just lie lol.
Yes, and since they're not your employers, they have even less rights to your personal informations.
Out of curiosity, have you tested positive though ?
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On July 31 2020 11:09 GoTuNk! wrote:
I finally have a friend who got confirmed covid; he was sick for 2-3 with small fever and recovered; says he felt like shit for a few days and got better, like a normal cold. 34 y/o male, very healthy individual.
At this point I think it seems clear covid will last a few years, draconians lockdowns should be thrown of the window, people should social distance, wear mask, isolate vulnerable people and dare I say start exposing young people. School and work should be resumed, they can't be delayed for years.
Kids going to school basically means people get infected from having kids. Kids being in classrooms, distanced or not, will be the same as churches and other indoor areas. We're seeing lots of examples of entire parties getting infected. A whole school gets infected, then those people's entire families get infected, then some of those people spread it at their jobs...etc...kids being allowed to spread it will be terrible. Opening schools right now is total madness
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On July 31 2020 11:09 GoTuNk! wrote:
I finally have a friend who got confirmed covid; he was sick for 2-3 with small fever and recovered; says he felt like shit for a few days and got better, like a normal cold. 34 y/o male, very healthy individual.
At this point I think it seems clear covid will last a few years, draconians lockdowns should be thrown of the window, people should social distance, wear mask, isolate vulnerable people and dare I say start exposing young people. School and work should be resumed, they can't be delayed for years.
So... despite the hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions infected, many of whom have serious, permanent organ damage and other complications... you have a friend who didn't get too sick... and so therefore, schools should reopen?
On July 31 2020 11:11 cLutZ wrote:
The school problem is just another example of shutdowners having no plan and an unfortunately true theory that people can't be responsible. Schools should be largely open and we should be able to trust parents to opt out if grandma lives at home, and they should be trusted not to bring kids over to grandmas house.
Shutdowners? Are we really referring to the experts in the medical community who best understand the virus as silly nicknames? No, schools should not be largely open... at least, in the United States. The "open-uppers" are the ones who need a solid plan to somehow, magically, convince the disease to stop spreading as we allow hundreds and thousands of people into the same building. Half of American adults don't even believe in wearing masks or social distancing, yet all children are supposed to be more mature than their parents? Have you ever managed a classroom of students before? Or considered how easy it is for people to transmit a disease inside of a school?
There are like a thousand major league baseball players, with basically infinite money and protection, and even they're getting sick. The number of students in the ONE high school I teach at is more than double ALL the major league baseball players who are spread throughout the country. Except my students will be in one building together. Then start counting all the other middle and elementary schools in my district, and consider every other district and school in New Jersey, and then every other state in the country.
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On July 31 2020 11:59 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2020 11:11 cLutZ wrote:
The school problem is just another example of shutdowners having no plan and an unfortunately true theory that people can't be responsible. Schools should be largely open and we should be able to trust parents to opt out if grandma lives at home, and they should be trusted not to bring kids over to grandmas house. Shutdowners? Are we really referring to the experts in the medical community who best understand the virus as silly nicknames? No, schools should not be largely open... at least, in the United States. The "open-uppers" are the ones who need a solid plan to somehow, magically, convince the disease to stop spreading as we allow hundreds and thousands of people into the same building. Half of American adults don't even believe in wearing masks or social distancing, yet all children are supposed to be more mature than their parents? Have you ever managed a classroom of students before? Or considered how easy it is for people to transmit a disease inside of a school? There are like a thousand major league baseball players, with basically infinite money and protection, and even they're getting sick. The number of students in the ONE high school I teach at is more than double ALL the major league baseball players who are spread throughout the country. Except my students will be in one building together. Then start counting all the other middle and elementary schools in my district, and consider every other district and school in New Jersey, and then every other state in the country.
#1. Shutdown vs. No is not a medical decision, it is a political decision that is informed by medicine, as well as many other things.
#2. Most major pediatric groups think schools should be open in all but the hottest of hotspot areas.
#3. Most other major countries have opened schools and will keep them open.
#4. For most people going to and working in schools (under 50) they are more likely to die going to/from school than of corona. The key thing here is personal responsibility of parents who should know more about their situations and may opt out.
#5. MLB is a success story of infection. People got infected they quarantine for 10 days and then they are back. That's perfectly fine. Infections will happen, that is anticipated, and in many ways actually good because infections then mean those students are no longer shadow risks for spreading after they fight off the virus.
Again, if you don't think schools should be open, the burden is on you to tell me your path for opening schools, and if you say vaccine you might as well be saying, "prayer" because: A) We don't know when one will be proven effective; B) There might be adverse side effects such as Guillain-Barre given this will be a novel vaccine, thus we won't be able to ethically give it to people under 55 for at least a year after its officially approved; C) Even if its effective, it might be only 40% or so effective like many seasonal flu vaccines, so you are still going to be in shutdown mode even after having the vaccine and giving doses to all the at risk people.
Again, you have no plan. You have things you think are plans, but ultimately when they are fisked, they are not a plan.
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