Coronavirus and You - Page 216

On July 31 2020 01:12 Kipsate wrote:
Parts of Rotterdam & Amsterdam are going to institute localing mask rules

We won't have a nationwide one because our national health institute says there is no scientific evidence that non-medical masks work. Which feels a bit eh given that like 80% of Europe has it but whatever.

On July 31 2020 00:27 JimmiC wrote:

It is the best we have, it is clear now that herd immunity is impossible with out massive deaths and maybe simply not possible. And if you start to let it get to the point that Italy Spain New York, and now many southern states get you start to hear about the 9 year old in Florida who died with no underlying conditions because she was turned away from an overburdened hospital because she only had a fever.

Lockdown followed by quarantining those that contact anyone along with social distancing and masks once it is at a low enough level to keep the r at below 1 is the best anyone has right now.

On July 31 2020 00:48 JimmiC wrote:

Our rules are so up in the air as well. The school gave out information on thee possible senario's. But the most open scenario, where it is basically normal with social distancing will be impossible for grade ones up to maybe grade 4 because of class sizes and curriculum. My daughter will also start daycare (she was to start the week of lockdown) and I have no idea how that will go given she can't social distance and still puts lots of things in her mouth. I have no idea how any of this is going to work well until there is a vaccine or at least something that vastly improves outcomes.

On July 31 2020 01:27 cLutZ wrote:


Not a plan. Try again.

On July 31 2020 01:12 Kipsate wrote:
Parts of Rotterdam & Amsterdam are going to institute localing mask rules

We won't have a nationwide one because our national health institute says there is no scientific evidence that non-medical masks work. Which feels a bit eh given that like 80% of Europe has it but whatever.

On July 31 2020 01:33 Simberto wrote:


How is that not a plan?

On July 31 2020 02:06 Simberto wrote:
It's also the Germany plan. And while we are currently experiencing a slight (but definitively not massive) uptick in cases due to continuously loosening regulations, it worked very well to keep the virus under control so far.

Hard lockdown for about 2 months, then slowly loosening regulations while trying to keep r below 1 is a very sensible plan. You do not the population to take the pandemic seriously and actually adhere to social distancing rules and so forth. But if you manage to do that, it works pretty well.

The problem is that the US kinda fucked up the lockdown thing, AND large enough parts of your population doesn't seem to take the pandemic seriously to be a huge problem.

I personally find it really strange that you can use the words "pandemic" and "not taking seriously" in the same sentence, but it definitively applies to the US.

On July 31 2020 02:45 cLutZ wrote:

You're way undervaluing "the population". The California plan, for lack of a better word, is essentially handing the keys to the drunkest guy at the party. You let the least responsible people of your state govern your outcomes, but you basically intentionally impose no costs on them, nor do you ever hold them to account.

On July 31 2020 01:39 Gorsameth wrote:
Not to mention that a fragmented response will just make things more confusing for everyone.

In general I've been reasonably happy with our governments response but this choice is just stupid.

On July 31 2020 01:12 Kipsate wrote:
Parts of Rotterdam & Amsterdam are going to institute localing mask rules

We won't have a nationwide one because our national health institute says there is no scientific evidence that non-medical masks work. Which feels a bit eh given that like 80% of Europe has it but whatever.

On July 31 2020 03:03 Simberto wrote:


That is not a problem with the plan per se, but with not actually doing of the plan. Of course if you have a plan, but then do not do anything to actually do the things necessary for the plan, it doesn't work.

For a lockdown to work, you need clear rules, enforcement of said clear rules, and a population which is largely willing to enforce the rules on themselves on their own. If you miss any of the above, it doesn't work.

But that really shouldn't be impossible. Punish any business which violates the rules hard. Have a social security net which is able to catch the problems which arise for the workers if some businesses cannot function. Have clear and reasonably easy to follow rules for individuals. And have some enforcement of the rules for individuals, but not absurdly hard, and especially figure out a way that keeps the cops from killing people or being racist during the enforcement of these rules. But mostly, just enable the people to actually follow the rules without the system destroying them.

On July 31 2020 01:54 cLutZ wrote:

Because its the California plan, except vaguer. Disastrous economically on the front end, massive outbreak anyways on the back end.

"once it is at a low enough level to keep the r at below 1 "

^This is the tell. Its an unattainable goal. States that had shelter at home for 2 months+ did not achieve this. In other words, he has proposed something fundamentally dishonest.

Here are honest plans:
1) Permanent closing of indoor group gatherings. Sporting events, concerts, restaurants are no longer legal businesses in our country for at least 2 years. Stop pretending this is a week to week or month to month thing. Embrace the political backlash, don't be the pilot that keeps telling passengers takeoff has been delayed another 15 minutes for 12 hours.

2) Sweden. Aka, treat C19 like the 1968 Hong Kong Flu, which is the most comparable recent historical pandemic. No lockdown, expect your people to be a serious populace. Aka, the treat adults like adults plan.

3) Actual quarantine. 21 Days where anyone found on the streets will be arrested and locked in solitary for 21 days. Followed by draconian track and trace. This would be close to "Plan East Asia" except we make it even more draconian because we don't have the luxury of an East Asian high intelligence, highly socially compliant, populace.

On July 31 2020 04:50 Danglars wrote:

To this and previous posts:
When did your mind change on the previously-successful European model, or which country is your best current example that European-style lockdowns were a mistake/are a mistake now?
Is America’s state system, on-average aimed at blunting the exponential curve to aid hospitals, effectively becomes a Sweden system albeit with more economic destruction? I’m talking primarily about each state opening up at staggered times, and reclosing, and the inter-state spread facilitated by that.
Lastly, is anything gained now with the Texas and Florida model of opening up and reclosing in terms of keeping hospitals below capacity? Excess deaths from hospital overcapacity seems like a good thing to avoid, though there’s an obvious trade off with economic damage the more you do with that.