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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On July 28 2020 16:51 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2020 16:18 LegalLord wrote:
There certainly is precedent for respiratory illnesses being less severe in the summer than winter. Though the coronavirus clearly is far from gone right now - I wonder if the summer months contribute to the lower apparent mortality? For one, sunlight is a good source of Vitamin D.
I guess we will see what happens to mortality rates in the colder months, now that testing is more widespread than in the first wave. No real need to wait. We can probably figure out whether that is at all true by looking at Australia, South Africa and Brazil.
Well, all three of them certainly look visibly worse now than they did in the March through May timeframe. But it feels like it's comparing twenty data points to just three, which isn't really enough when you take into account nuance such as how developed the countries are, and how competent their pandemic response was.
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who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ...
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On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ...
Norway
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United States43255 Posts
On July 29 2020 00:13 Neneu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ... Norway
Peter the Great
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Whoever created "the Muppet Show".
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Finland, to fill out the Nordic set.
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On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ...
In relation to ?
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On July 29 2020 00:19 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 00:13 Neneu wrote:On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ... Norway Peter the Great
I like you.
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On July 29 2020 03:29 Erasme wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ... In relation to ?
My several mentions of Sweden's consistently subpar results in handling the corvid problem.
Solicited some excellent follow-up responses here, so that's great.
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Was there an argument about that?
Italy has 5.9 times the swedish population, and 6.1 times the deaths due to covid.
Sweden fared marginally better than Italy. And that "better" only applies if you ignore a few very key facts. First, italy had factually no idea of the extent of what was coming, they were hit first in europe. They couldn't preemptively lock down the country after cases emerged, because no one at that time knew what kind of shitshow Covid19 really is.
Sweden did know.
Sweden has an incredibly low population density compared to italy. In fact, basically a quarter of the population density of italy (64ppl per sqm compared to 204ppl per sqm).
And, lastly, italy is one of the, if not the tourism hub in europe, with 61m visitors each year. Sweden has 7.5m.
That isn't "bashing", that's just cold hard facts. Sweden did have the worst possible response to Covid (in europe), and the numbers show it, too. They had every value in their favour (knowing that it was coming, very low population density, not much tourism, warnings about care homes etc) and they still barely edged out italy.
Really nothing to be proud of, or to be brought up in an internet discussion (other than pointing out how bad they did).
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On July 29 2020 11:39 m4ini wrote:
Was there an argument about that?
Italy has 5.9 times the swedish population, and 6.1 times the deaths due to covid.
Sweden fared marginally better than Italy. And that "better" only applies if you ignore a few very key facts. First, italy had factually no idea of the extent of what was coming, they were hit first in europe. They couldn't preemptively lock down the country after cases emerged, because no one at that time knew what kind of shitshow Covid19 really is.
Sweden did know.
Sweden has an incredibly low population density compared to italy. In fact, basically a quarter of the population density of italy (64ppl per sqm compared to 204ppl per sqm).
And, lastly, italy is one of the, if not the tourism hub in europe, with 61m visitors each year. Sweden has 7.5m.
That isn't "bashing", that's just cold hard facts. Sweden did have the worst possible response to Covid (in europe), and the numbers show it, too. They had every value in their favour (knowing that it was coming, very low population density, not much tourism, warnings about care homes etc) and they still barely edged out italy.
Really nothing to be proud of, or to be brought up in an internet discussion (other than pointing out how bad they did).
Dunnu - excess mortality data + Show Spoiler +https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
Select data from the link:
Britain had 98 excess deaths / 100k people
Italy had: 78
The Netherlands: 55
Sweden 51
France: 41
Germany 9
Denmark 4
The true horror story seems to be the UK, (though I am fairly sure both New York state and New Jersey are even worse).
(the data series ends between May and June depending on country but based on the graphs it seems like most European countries were down to ~0 excess deaths per week by then anyway so it shouldn't matter too much)
That said, there were certainly a lot of things that could have been done better in Sweden, but at the risk of sounding like a libertarian hippie, I do think there is some intrinsic value in asking for voluntary cooperation rather than forcibly locking everyone at home.
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On July 29 2020 13:48 KlaCkoN wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 11:39 m4ini wrote:
Was there an argument about that?
Italy has 5.9 times the swedish population, and 6.1 times the deaths due to covid.
Sweden fared marginally better than Italy. And that "better" only applies if you ignore a few very key facts. First, italy had factually no idea of the extent of what was coming, they were hit first in europe. They couldn't preemptively lock down the country after cases emerged, because no one at that time knew what kind of shitshow Covid19 really is.
Sweden did know.
Sweden has an incredibly low population density compared to italy. In fact, basically a quarter of the population density of italy (64ppl per sqm compared to 204ppl per sqm).
And, lastly, italy is one of the, if not the tourism hub in europe, with 61m visitors each year. Sweden has 7.5m.
That isn't "bashing", that's just cold hard facts. Sweden did have the worst possible response to Covid (in europe), and the numbers show it, too. They had every value in their favour (knowing that it was coming, very low population density, not much tourism, warnings about care homes etc) and they still barely edged out italy.
Really nothing to be proud of, or to be brought up in an internet discussion (other than pointing out how bad they did). Dunnu - excess mortality data + Show Spoiler +https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries seems to put Sweden around the middle of the pack in Europe - way worse overall than say Germany and Denmark, but way better than the UK and Spain. Select data from the link: Britain had 98 excess deaths / 100k people Italy had: 78 The Netherlands: 55 Sweden 51 France: 41 Germany 9 Denmark 4 The true horror story seems to be the UK, (though I am fairly sure both New York state and New Jersey are even worse). (the data series ends between May and June depending on country but based on the graphs it seems like most European countries were down to ~0 excess deaths per week by then anyway so it shouldn't matter too much) That said, there were certainly a lot of things that could have been done better in Sweden, but at the risk of sounding like a libertarian hippie, I do think there is some intrinsic value in asking for voluntary cooperation rather than forcibly locking everyone at home.
It's worth saying that Sweden's critics predicted "bottom of the pack" rather than middle of the pack, but the goalposts shifted to some sort of "better/worse than scandinavian neighbors" along the way.
I applaud their citizenry's voluntary compliance with the advice of their government. I wish more states from my own country would have done something a bit similar, though mandatory sequestering of elderly and respiratory precondition/diabetes preconditions is warranted.
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dude ... you're starring at a second wave that looks to hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as it did the first time.
and then, you'll have a third wave come autumn that will hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as the first wave did.
and then, ... do you see the pattern?.
AN THEN, ... no one is proud of anything.
but apart from that obvious thing, Kwarkie, being the numbers guy, is failing. he should do the maths on covid vs the massive global economic recession that was expected to hit early this year(worse than the '08 some would say).
where did the recession go?.
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United States43255 Posts
On July 29 2020 14:09 xM(Z wrote:
dude ... you're starring at a second wave that looks to hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as it did the first time.
and then, you'll have a third wave come autumn that will hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as the first wave did.
and then, ... do you see the pattern?.
AN THEN, ... no one is proud of anything.
but apart from that obvious thing, Kwarkie, being the numbers guy, is failing. he should do the maths on covid vs the massive global economic recession that was expected to hit early this year(worse than the '08 some would say).
where did the recession go?.
?
The recession is here, economic output and activity has declined for two consecutive quarters. The stock market is not the economy.
Also why am I responsible for this?
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On July 29 2020 14:09 xM(Z wrote:
dude ... you're starring at a second wave that looks to hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as it did the first time.
and then, you'll have a third wave come autumn that will hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as the first wave did.
and then, ... do you see the pattern?.
AN THEN, ... no one is proud of anything.
but apart from that obvious thing, Kwarkie, being the numbers guy, is failing. he should do the maths on covid vs the massive global economic recession that was expected to hit early this year(worse than the '08 some would say).
where did the recession go?.
Why do you think Sweden is safe from a second wave?
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On July 29 2020 14:09 xM(Z wrote:
dude ... you're starring at a second wave that looks to hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as it did the first time.
and then, you'll have a third wave come autumn that will hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as the first wave did.
and then, ... do you see the pattern?.
AN THEN, ... no one is proud of anything.
but apart from that obvious thing, Kwarkie, being the numbers guy, is failing. he should do the maths on covid vs the massive global economic recession that was expected to hit early this year(worse than the '08 some would say).
where did the recession go?.
Norway says whaaaaaaaaaaat...? Here's the current travel restrictions for Norway.
We are the closest neighbor and are basically brothers when it comes to trade, culture and friendship. We do almost everything the same. You should compare them to us.
Btw Sweden is going for an R below 1. It would take decades for them to reach herd immunity (assuming immunity even lasts that long).
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On July 29 2020 03:51 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 03:29 Erasme wrote:On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ... In relation to ? My several mentions of Sweden's consistently subpar results in handling the corvid problem. Solicited some excellent follow-up responses here, so that's great.
Yes.Clearly Sweden should have gone into lockdown.
How are UK deaths per million compared to Sweden?
Let's not forget a Swedish research team claimed a best scenario of 15,000 deaths by May 1 if Sweden adopted a UK style lockdown by mid April.96,000 deaths by July 1 with no lockdown there.
Paper : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf
Should be noted this was based on Ferguson's Imperial college scenario predictions which sound ludicrous now.Ferguson himself became an outcast after breaking UK lockdown restrictions (seeing his married mistress) that he recommended implementing.You can't even make it up it's so batshit insane.Everyones forgotten about that though so back to Sweden.
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On July 29 2020 15:34 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 14:09 xM(Z wrote:
dude ... you're starring at a second wave that looks to hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as it did the first time.
and then, you'll have a third wave come autumn that will hit everyone except Sweden, as hard as the first wave did.
and then, ... do you see the pattern?.
AN THEN, ... no one is proud of anything.
but apart from that obvious thing, Kwarkie, being the numbers guy, is failing. he should do the maths on covid vs the massive global economic recession that was expected to hit early this year(worse than the '08 some would say).
where did the recession go?.
Why do you think Sweden is safe from a second wave?
The theory is that the second wave hits when you open up a society with low immunity and the disease comes back (Israel, australia, for example). Sweden's strategy was to never close down to begin with but to try to protect people at risk while keeping society open at a sustainable level.
Now we are almost completely back to normal while we dont see any increase in cases so hopefully we have found a stable development. But if this is the correct way of handling Corona depends om a number of factors that we dont know yet, in my opinion.
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On July 29 2020 17:53 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2020 03:51 LegalLord wrote:On July 29 2020 03:29 Erasme wrote:On July 29 2020 00:11 xM(Z wrote:
who was bashing on Sweden a while back? ... In relation to ? My several mentions of Sweden's consistently subpar results in handling the corvid problem. Solicited some excellent follow-up responses here, so that's great. Yes.Clearly Sweden should have gone into lockdown. How are UK deaths per million compared to Sweden? Let's not forget a Swedish research team claimed a best scenario of 15,000 deaths by May 1 if Sweden adopted a UK style lockdown by mid April.96,000 deaths by July 1 with no lockdown there. Paper : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdfShould be noted this was based on Ferguson's Imperial college scenario predictions which sound ludicrous now.Ferguson himself became an outcast after breaking UK lockdown restrictions (seeing his married mistress) that he recommended implementing.You can't even make it up it's so batshit insane.Everyones forgotten about that though so back to Sweden.
And what's supposed to be wrong with Ferguson's predictions?
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