EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 171
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6213 Posts
On May 26 2020 13:13 LegalLord wrote: It finally looks like the US has a meaningful downward trend in infections and death. It didn't even hit 100k on Monday as predicted because the death rate was so low. That's good news. Worldometers It's also Memorial day weekend. I'm highly doubtful that next weekend will show the same trend, or even the week starting tomorrow. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15689 Posts
I still don't understand why Spain went so crazy and we didn't. What is different? I don't understand!! | ||
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Slydie
1920 Posts
On May 26 2020 15:26 Mohdoo wrote: With all these pictures of packed bars and no one wearing masks, either shit is about to get wild or we are going to hopefully understand what contributes to high/low infection rates. It is also really encouraging to see developments in understanding with regards to t cell interactions. I am gaining confidence in the idea that therapy for covid will get much better soon and that we will be able to drastically improve people's outcomes through improved knowledge before we have a vaccine. I still don't understand why Spain went so crazy and we didn't. What is different? I don't understand!! All of Spain did not go crazy, mainly Madrid and surrounding areas+Barcelona. Spain did basically nothing the first weeks the virus was here, add that to a social culture with close conversations, bad testing capacity, touching, french kisses elderly living with their kids, family member taking care of elderly, lack of protective gear for HC workers, an old population and apparently a dysfunctional HC system in Madrid. In Madrid, 40k+ went to hospital for Corona, which is terrible, but most of the country was ok. Even by doing nothing for several weeks, the virus only infected ~15% of the population in the hardest hit regions. The lockdown stopped the spread dead, but there was a significant lag, so deaths spiked weeks later. I think it s clear now that the virus is not that contagious, and very simple measures like testing and distancing is enough to keep it in check, maybe even shut it down completely. I am not a believer in facemasks, but being careful inside bars, restaurants, works spaces and public toilets seems very reasonable. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21689 Posts
Just recently there was a case where 100+ people apparently got infected from a single church service that actually did have measures in place. https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/one-german-church-service-resulted-in-more-than-100-coronavirus-infections/ar-BB14ypPN?li=BBr5KbJ And at the start of this mess a similar thing happened in SK. I wonder if this is a case of mutations, where most strains are not that infectious but a small number are very infectious? I donno, feels weird. | ||
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Slydie
1920 Posts
On May 26 2020 18:58 Gorsameth wrote: On one hand it appears that social distancing is very effective in suppressing the spread but on the other hand we have stories coming out that when it does spread it can do explosively. Just recently there was a case where 100+ people apparently got infected from a single church service that actually did have measures in place. https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/one-german-church-service-resulted-in-more-than-100-coronavirus-infections/ar-BB14ypPN?li=BBr5KbJ And at the start of this mess a similar thing happened in SK. I wonder if this is a case of mutations, where most strains are not that infectious but a small number are very infectious? I donno, feels weird. Church services are known to be of high risk, they have caused many outbreaks! They should be moved outside if possible. Good ventilation is not a main feature of churches afaik. | ||
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Geisterkarle
Germany3257 Posts
There are probably no mutations! There seem to be a lot of factors for that outbreak! For example, it seems they had some big chorus together there. And it is already known that singing, shouting ... is a "lovely" home for droplets with the virus! And they didn't wear masks! Well, maybe a silent prayer would be better... btw. you remeber the big outbreak in south korea, that infected a lot of people? Yep, it was a church meeting! Nothing new here! for German speaking people: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/a-e99fbe8d-857e-4e01-9206-c535f558569c Also just for a positive note about that: While many were infected, only one person is in a hospital and most of the people didn't even notice they are infected weren't it for the test! So luckily there will probably no death from that! | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On May 26 2020 18:51 Slydie wrote: All of Spain did not go crazy, mainly Madrid and surrounding areas+Barcelona. Spain did basically nothing the first weeks the virus was here, add that to a social culture with close conversations, bad testing capacity, touching, french kisses elderly living with their kids, family member taking care of elderly, lack of protective gear for HC workers, an old population and apparently a dysfunctional HC system in Madrid. In Madrid, 40k+ went to hospital for Corona, which is terrible, but most of the country was ok. Even by doing nothing for several weeks, the virus only infected ~15% of the population in the hardest hit regions. The lockdown stopped the spread dead, but there was a significant lag, so deaths spiked weeks later. I think it s clear now that the virus is not that contagious, and very simple measures like testing and distancing is enough to keep it in check, maybe even shut it down completely. I am not a believer in facemasks, but being careful inside bars, restaurants, works spaces and public toilets seems very reasonable. What he said. European capitals and main towns have a layout dating back centuries, very cramped with a high pop density. Restaurants are narrow and cramped, shops also. And in spain/italy/France our social life means being very close with "la bise", shaking hands, speaking at very close quarters (italy mainly) etc. We have needed quite some time to adapt our behaviour. I am not sure la bise will be coming back... It's much better now overall, but students don't care from what i see here. Small groups with members shoulder to shoulder looking at each other's phones and chatting softly... That did not change. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria818 Posts
Also, kindergartens reopened today. Here is link in local language. I think Bulgaria has done as well as Germany considering we're not as wealthy and when compared to EU countries. I think having 2443 infection cases and about 130 deaths is not bad in this situation, here is link from government. Scotland has 1.5 million less population than us, but it has 15k cases and 2291 deaths. I'm super proud of how we went through this. With GDP of $65.13 billion, we're the worst in the EU, so we expected to be badly hit due to lack of resources that Germany has (lots of hospital beds, much better economy, etc). | ||
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Jek
Denmark2771 Posts
On May 27 2020 01:56 SC-Shield wrote: Only 10 new cases in the last 24 hours here (reported once daily I think), but only 295 were tested. If this isn't undertesting, then coronavirus is slowly going away unless someone imports it. Masks might have helped (a month and a half in use). Restaraunts and arrivals from other Balkan countries will be allowed from 1 June (no quarantine will be needed for Balkan neighbours coming here as long as they have similar measures as us). Also, kindergartens reopened today. Here is link in local language. I think Bulgaria has done as well as Germany considering we're not as wealthy and when compared to EU countries. I think having 2443 infection cases and about 130 deaths is not bad in this situation, here is link from government. Scotland has 1.5 million less population than us, but it has 15k cases and 2291 deaths. I'm super proud of how we went through this. With GDP of $65.13 billion, we're the worst in the EU, so we expected to be badly hit due to lack of resources that Germany has (lots of hospital beds, much better economy, etc). I'm actually not that surprised the poorer EU countries are getting through it better. The lower life expectancy should mean less vulnerable elderly and I would imagine also ironically a healthier lifestyle - not every household is glued in front of a screen all time off school/work and less money to spend on "luxury" but unhealthy habits. In Denmark an unemployed person on social aid can easily fit their budget to smoke a pack of cigerettes a day, order junk food now and then while also having the luxury of owning a console or pc while also get hammered on cheap beer. Source: Myself wasting 1 year away after finishing college. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5559 Posts
On May 27 2020 03:18 Jek wrote: I'm actually not that surprised the poorer EU countries are getting through it better. The lower life expectancy should mean less vulnerable elderly and I would imagine also ironically a healthier lifestyle - not every household is glued in front of a screen all time off school/work and less money to spend on "luxury" but unhealthy habits. In Denmark an unemployed person on social aid can easily fit their budget to smoke a pack of cigerettes a day, order junk food now and then while also having the luxury of owning a console or pc while also get hammered on cheap beer. Source: Myself wasting 1 year away after finishing college. Wouldn't lower life expectancy imply that people die earlier because they're in poorer health? That would mean someone who's 75 years old in the West would be of equivalent health to someone who's 65 in a poorer country (I made up the numbers but you get the gist). | ||
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BlackJack
United States10503 Posts
On May 27 2020 07:53 maybenexttime wrote: Wouldn't lower life expectancy imply that people die earlier because they're in poorer health? That would mean someone who's 75 years old in the West would be of equivalent health to someone who's 65 in a poorer country (I made up the numbers but you get the gist). It's probably more likely to mean the opposite. If your healthcare system is not as advanced then being of old age in a poorer country probably means you haven't had many health problems because if you did you'd have died already. | ||
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Slydie
1920 Posts
On May 27 2020 01:56 SC-Shield wrote: Only 10 new cases in the last 24 hours here (reported once daily I think), but only 295 were tested. If this isn't undertesting, then coronavirus is slowly going away unless someone imports it. Masks might have helped (a month and a half in use). Restaraunts and arrivals from other Balkan countries will be allowed from 1 June (no quarantine will be needed for Balkan neighbours coming here as long as they have similar measures as us). Also, kindergartens reopened today. Here is link in local language. I think Bulgaria has done as well as Germany considering we're not as wealthy and when compared to EU countries. I think having 2443 infection cases and about 130 deaths is not bad in this situation, here is link from government. Scotland has 1.5 million less population than us, but it has 15k cases and 2291 deaths. I'm super proud of how we went through this. With GDP of $65.13 billion, we're the worst in the EU, so we expected to be badly hit due to lack of resources that Germany has (lots of hospital beds, much better economy, etc). You probably got help from other factors, like a much younger population and lower life expectancy than Spain. 71,2 years vs 81,3 years for males for example. The average Corona victim is over 80 years old for all countries I have seen the numbers for. https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/spain-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/bulgaria-demographics/ | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5559 Posts
On May 27 2020 08:19 BlackJack wrote: It's probably more likely to mean the opposite. If your healthcare system is not as advanced then being of old age in a poorer country probably means you haven't had many health problems because if you did you'd have died already. If that were the case, wouldn't those 65-year-olds have higher life expectancy than those in wealthier countries? https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm It's also not a matter of just the healthcare system. You have to take into account nutrition (% of elderly people at risk of or in poverty), how many people are working menial jobs or the retirement age. Just compare people working physical jobs with people working office jobs. In my experience, the former look much older. I get the idea that weaker elderly people could hypothetically be "filtered out" in poorer countries. I'm not convinced that is the case in relevant age bracket, though. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Jek
Denmark2771 Posts
On May 28 2020 03:49 maybenexttime wrote: If that were the case, wouldn't those 65-year-olds have higher life expectancy than those in wealthier countries? https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm It's also not a matter of just the healthcare system. You have to take into account nutrition (% of elderly people at risk of or in poverty), how many people are working menial jobs or the retirement age. Just compare people working physical jobs with people working office jobs. In my experience, the former look much older. I get the idea that weaker elderly people could hypothetically be "filtered out" in poorer countries. I'm not convinced that is the case in relevant age bracket, though. The deaths lowering the life expectancy were/are deaths from non-COVID related incidents, someone that died from being worn down working in a factory would still die from it now and not be a part of the COVID related death statistics, likewise with someone dying earlier from cancer or similar illness who might have lived longer in the rich country. In this case with COVID it's the living elderly that are relevant the ones dying from non-related causes are irrelevant to the statistics. I dont really know how to properly phrase it in English, so bear with me. My idea was the naive assumption that people that survive in a harsh environment would most likely on average be more stronger than people that survive in a mild environment. How many died in the harsh environment doesn't matter, it's the survivors that are relevant since they are the ones fighting the new threat. Another thing to keep in mind is the test frequency. Denmark has nearly a factor ten per million as many compared to Bulgary for instance. I'm not trying to rain on Bulgary's efforts as a "psh it's natural, not your work", nobody in Denmark wore masks and despite as much as we want to pat ourself on the back anecdotally I saw lot of people not exactly follow the grouping limitations, mostly late teens to mid twenties aka A-tier vectors for the virus. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10503 Posts
On May 28 2020 03:49 maybenexttime wrote: If that were the case, wouldn't those 65-year-olds have higher life expectancy than those in wealthier countries? https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-65.htm It's also not a matter of just the healthcare system. You have to take into account nutrition (% of elderly people at risk of or in poverty), how many people are working menial jobs or the retirement age. Just compare people working physical jobs with people working office jobs. In my experience, the former look much older. I get the idea that weaker elderly people could hypothetically be "filtered out" in poorer countries. I'm not convinced that is the case in relevant age bracket, though. I don't think they would have a higher life expectancy once they made it to 65 because they will still be in a country with a less modern healthcare system. Poorer countries are probably also more likely to rely on family as caregivers for the elderly instead of nursing homes. I've heard that nearly half of the COVID-19 deaths in the US are from nursing homes. One of the first big known exposures of COVID-19 in the United States happened at a nursing home in Washington state. Here's a CDC report: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm 22 of the 81 residents were killed (27.2%). It also shows underlying conditions, 69% had high blood pressure, 57% had heart disease, 43% had kidney disease, 37% had diabetes, and 30% had obesity. I'd imagine there is just so much more of this type of population in richer countries than in poorer countries. | ||
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