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Coronavirus and You - Page 172

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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.

It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.

Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.

This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.

Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
May 27 2020 21:58 GMT
#3421
There's a very simple explanation to why some of the poorer European nations are doing better than the wealthier ones. Most European countries imposed lockdown measures on roughly the same timeline (with some small differences which ended up making a very big difference [e.g Germany doing much better than France]), however the outbreak was not equally advanced in all of those countries when lockdowns started getting imposed. In general the wealthier nations already had many more cases due to more widespread traveling.

Relative to each country's outbreak Czechia started lockdown a week or two earlier than Germany for example.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-27 22:26:05
May 27 2020 22:07 GMT
#3422
Follow the path of air traffic. You need little more insight than that to see where the disease spread quickly and aggressively in its early weeks.

Edit: This plot is a good one. Admittedly it's not exactly a very small amount of flight in the lesser affected regions of Europe, but Spain, Italy, etc., have visibly more.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-28 00:20:07
May 28 2020 00:11 GMT
#3423
As expected I guess, USA is over their holiday and is reporting higher numbers again.

I'm a bit skeptical of the reporting though for some states. It's almost definitely an undercount, primarily by assigning different causes of death.

(Copied from reddit)

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)


Edit: 5year avg is expected deaths in state from feb1 to whenever comment was made

Across all states, taking the pneumonia deaths this year vs 5 year averages, it's around 40k excess deaths from pneumonia alone. Odds are including a couple other related ones, actual deaths are likely much higher than currently reported.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-28 04:32:34
May 28 2020 04:29 GMT
#3424
On May 28 2020 09:11 Lmui wrote:
As expected I guess, USA is over their holiday and is reporting higher numbers again.

I'm a bit skeptical of the reporting though for some states. It's almost definitely an undercount, primarily by assigning different causes of death.

(Copied from reddit)
Show nested quote +

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)


Edit: 5year avg is expected deaths in state from feb1 to whenever comment was made

Across all states, taking the pneumonia deaths this year vs 5 year averages, it's around 40k excess deaths from pneumonia alone. Odds are including a couple other related ones, actual deaths are likely much higher than currently reported.


The bump from people saying "but its not reasonable to..." won't happen until probably 3 weeks from now. People normalized it last weekend and will just go back to business as usual because they are dumb
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-28 06:31:07
May 28 2020 06:14 GMT
#3425
wrong thread my bad

Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1996 Posts
May 28 2020 09:56 GMT
#3426
On May 28 2020 09:11 Lmui wrote:
As expected I guess, USA is over their holiday and is reporting higher numbers again.

I'm a bit skeptical of the reporting though for some states. It's almost definitely an undercount, primarily by assigning different causes of death.

(Copied from reddit)
Show nested quote +

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)


Edit: 5year avg is expected deaths in state from feb1 to whenever comment was made

Across all states, taking the pneumonia deaths this year vs 5 year averages, it's around 40k excess deaths from pneumonia alone. Odds are including a couple other related ones, actual deaths are likely much higher than currently reported.


I think a more correct approach is to compare with flu seasons where deaths also tend to spike, often dramatically.
Buff the siegetank
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
May 28 2020 10:57 GMT
#3427
It's not comparable to flu season because it's not flu season?
passive quaranstream fan
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7347 Posts
May 28 2020 11:04 GMT
#3428
On May 28 2020 09:11 Lmui wrote:
As expected I guess, USA is over their holiday and is reporting higher numbers again.

I'm a bit skeptical of the reporting though for some states. It's almost definitely an undercount, primarily by assigning different causes of death.

(Copied from reddit)
Show nested quote +

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)


Edit: 5year avg is expected deaths in state from feb1 to whenever comment was made

Across all states, taking the pneumonia deaths this year vs 5 year averages, it's around 40k excess deaths from pneumonia alone. Odds are including a couple other related ones, actual deaths are likely much higher than currently reported.


Did I understand this right that all those deaths caused by pneumonia are not counted in the COVID numbers?
And nobody bats an eye that pneumonia deaths are 4-5 times the "usual" numbers?
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22492 Posts
May 28 2020 11:27 GMT
#3429
On May 28 2020 20:04 Harris1st wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2020 09:11 Lmui wrote:
As expected I guess, USA is over their holiday and is reporting higher numbers again.

I'm a bit skeptical of the reporting though for some states. It's almost definitely an undercount, primarily by assigning different causes of death.

(Copied from reddit)

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)


Edit: 5year avg is expected deaths in state from feb1 to whenever comment was made

Across all states, taking the pneumonia deaths this year vs 5 year averages, it's around 40k excess deaths from pneumonia alone. Odds are including a couple other related ones, actual deaths are likely much higher than currently reported.


Did I understand this right that all those deaths caused by pneumonia are not counted in the COVID numbers?
And nobody bats an eye that pneumonia deaths are 4-5 times the "usual" numbers?
When politicians stake their political career on pretending there is no crisis this is what you get. A large effort to pretend that there is no crisis.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11945 Posts
May 28 2020 11:32 GMT
#3430
I mean, even with the official numbers, the US is quickly reaching WW1 levels of deaths due to corona.
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7347 Posts
May 28 2020 11:41 GMT
#3431
I see a correlation between this

On May 28 2020 20:27 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2020 20:04 Harris1st wrote:
On May 28 2020 09:11 Lmui wrote:
As expected I guess, USA is over their holiday and is reporting higher numbers again.

I'm a bit skeptical of the reporting though for some states. It's almost definitely an undercount, primarily by assigning different causes of death.

(Copied from reddit)

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)


Edit: 5year avg is expected deaths in state from feb1 to whenever comment was made

Across all states, taking the pneumonia deaths this year vs 5 year averages, it's around 40k excess deaths from pneumonia alone. Odds are including a couple other related ones, actual deaths are likely much higher than currently reported.


Did I understand this right that all those deaths caused by pneumonia are not counted in the COVID numbers?
And nobody bats an eye that pneumonia deaths are 4-5 times the "usual" numbers?
When politicians stake their political career on pretending there is no crisis this is what you get. A large effort to pretend that there is no crisis.


and this:

On May 28 2020 20:32 Simberto wrote:
I mean, even with the official numbers, the US is quickly reaching WW1 levels of deaths due to corona.


But maybe that's just me
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
May 28 2020 11:43 GMT
#3432
It's not just you, and the obvious number cooking is not lost on everyone here either.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11945 Posts
May 28 2020 11:43 GMT
#3433
That would be a political statement, and thus i cannot talk about that here.
Firebolt145
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Lalalaland34504 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-28 13:19:05
May 28 2020 13:18 GMT
#3434
Occasional political reference when discussing how the world is reacting is unavoidable, but please think twice so to avoid completely disrupting the flow of discussion. Current discussion appears to be okay.
Moderator
Howie_Dewitt
Profile Joined March 2014
United States1416 Posts
May 28 2020 19:48 GMT
#3435
With the exception of Chicago, Illinois is getting ready to re-open. They've met all 5 of the White House's criteria for re-opening, so governor Pritzker is moving forward.
Newsweek link, has link to the governor's twitter post on it
Phase 3 of "Restore Illinois" allows most essential and non-essential businesses to re-open while accommodating for social distancing guidelines. Bars and restaurants can't open their inside spaces up yet, though.

I'm not sure about this, and I'm glad that Chicago is using its own schedule instead, even if it means I'm stuck inside for a bit longer. I went to volunteer at a food pantry today, and while there's not enough space to enforce social distancing in the back end of the place and some of the recipients don't have masks, the staff are doing what they can. I didn't get to ask if they've seen an uptick in customers, but I'll try to figure it out next time I go.
Sisyphus had a good gig going, the disappointment was predictable. | Visions of the Country (1978) is for when you're lost.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
May 28 2020 20:05 GMT
#3436
On May 29 2020 04:48 Howie_Dewitt wrote:
With the exception of Chicago, Illinois is getting ready to re-open. They've met all 5 of the White House's criteria for re-opening, so governor Pritzker is moving forward.
Newsweek link, has link to the governor's twitter post on it
Phase 3 of "Restore Illinois" allows most essential and non-essential businesses to re-open while accommodating for social distancing guidelines. Bars and restaurants can't open their inside spaces up yet, though.

I'm not sure about this, and I'm glad that Chicago is using its own schedule instead, even if it means I'm stuck inside for a bit longer. I went to volunteer at a food pantry today, and while there's not enough space to enforce social distancing in the back end of the place and some of the recipients don't have masks, the staff are doing what they can. I didn't get to ask if they've seen an uptick in customers, but I'll try to figure it out next time I go.


Must be nice. Oregon is amazingly stupid. People are obsessed with sitting inside.
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9063 Posts
May 28 2020 20:27 GMT
#3437
On May 29 2020 04:48 Howie_Dewitt wrote:
With the exception of Chicago, Illinois is getting ready to re-open. They've met all 5 of the White House's criteria for re-opening, so governor Pritzker is moving forward.
Newsweek link, has link to the governor's twitter post on it
Phase 3 of "Restore Illinois" allows most essential and non-essential businesses to re-open while accommodating for social distancing guidelines. Bars and restaurants can't open their inside spaces up yet, though.

I'm not sure about this, and I'm glad that Chicago is using its own schedule instead, even if it means I'm stuck inside for a bit longer. I went to volunteer at a food pantry today, and while there's not enough space to enforce social distancing in the back end of the place and some of the recipients don't have masks, the staff are doing what they can. I didn't get to ask if they've seen an uptick in customers, but I'll try to figure it out next time I go.

Yeah, we can't reopen the bar yet because we don't have enough space outside to make it worthwhile just yet. So maybe mid-June is when we'll open fully and get things going. It'll still be a challenge but we'll see how it goes.

I'm assuming you're downtown?
Howie_Dewitt
Profile Joined March 2014
United States1416 Posts
May 28 2020 21:14 GMT
#3438
On May 29 2020 05:27 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2020 04:48 Howie_Dewitt wrote:
With the exception of Chicago, Illinois is getting ready to re-open. They've met all 5 of the White House's criteria for re-opening, so governor Pritzker is moving forward.
Newsweek link, has link to the governor's twitter post on it
Phase 3 of "Restore Illinois" allows most essential and non-essential businesses to re-open while accommodating for social distancing guidelines. Bars and restaurants can't open their inside spaces up yet, though.

I'm not sure about this, and I'm glad that Chicago is using its own schedule instead, even if it means I'm stuck inside for a bit longer. I went to volunteer at a food pantry today, and while there's not enough space to enforce social distancing in the back end of the place and some of the recipients don't have masks, the staff are doing what they can. I didn't get to ask if they've seen an uptick in customers, but I'll try to figure it out next time I go.

Yeah, we can't reopen the bar yet because we don't have enough space outside to make it worthwhile just yet. So maybe mid-June is when we'll open fully and get things going. It'll still be a challenge but we'll see how it goes.

I'm assuming you're downtown?

Northside, near the zoo. PM me the bar name, I might go once things ease up!
Sisyphus had a good gig going, the disappointment was predictable. | Visions of the Country (1978) is for when you're lost.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
May 28 2020 23:34 GMT
#3439
My local mall opened up again just over a week ago. Been around there a few times before and since; it's been interesting to watch.

Was operating at around 1/10 store capacity during lockdown (some logistics still need doing, some businesses can still operate fully online / via curbside), went to about 1/4 when it opened up at first, now looks like maybe 1/3 of the stores are open. Looking at which stores seem to be in the process of bringing things back online, I think about half will be open in the very near future. Maybe 4 stores looked like they're now shuttered for good, judging by obvious signs of packing up and leaving. I'm sure there will be more eventually.

The mall was historically very well trafficked, with what must have been thousands of people on any given day. These last few times, it wasn't exactly "dead mall" levels of empty, but... even at popular times there couldn't have been more than 200 people there. And what's more, wearing a mask is so suffocating that it absolutely makes me think twice about going shopping. The whole "social distancing" mechanic isn't much fun either.

Seems like a lot of people are hoping for a rapid economic recovery driven by a post-lockdown boom. Personally, I'm just not feeling it. If I'm supposed to be patronizing businesses when I have to avoid all other people like the plague, and wear a suffocating mask while doing it - well I'm definitely going to think twice about doing so. I bet most other people will feel the same way.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
May 29 2020 00:24 GMT
#3440
On May 29 2020 08:34 LegalLord wrote:
My local mall opened up again just over a week ago. Been around there a few times before and since; it's been interesting to watch.

Was operating at around 1/10 store capacity during lockdown (some logistics still need doing, some businesses can still operate fully online / via curbside), went to about 1/4 when it opened up at first, now looks like maybe 1/3 of the stores are open. Looking at which stores seem to be in the process of bringing things back online, I think about half will be open in the very near future. Maybe 4 stores looked like they're now shuttered for good, judging by obvious signs of packing up and leaving. I'm sure there will be more eventually.

The mall was historically very well trafficked, with what must have been thousands of people on any given day. These last few times, it wasn't exactly "dead mall" levels of empty, but... even at popular times there couldn't have been more than 200 people there. And what's more, wearing a mask is so suffocating that it absolutely makes me think twice about going shopping. The whole "social distancing" mechanic isn't much fun either.

Seems like a lot of people are hoping for a rapid economic recovery driven by a post-lockdown boom. Personally, I'm just not feeling it. If I'm supposed to be patronizing businesses when I have to avoid all other people like the plague, and wear a suffocating mask while doing it - well I'm definitely going to think twice about doing so. I bet most other people will feel the same way.


Not only is it unpleasant, but lots of people have developed ways of getting by without malls at this point. Similar to WFH, the people who didn't quite get around to making themselves efficient at online shopping are likely totally set at this point. I won't be going to stores for a very long time, but once I do, I'm not sure what that will look like.
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