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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On March 09 2020 20:08 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 19:26 Velr wrote: What baffles me the most is that Germany still has full on public football games... Every gathering of more than 1000 people is advised against, but still possible AFAIK. Give it 1 more week and it will be strictly forbidden Will probably be way too late for that then.. Idk why, maybe because most people are fucking stupid, but I see that most people seem to be downplaying all this really hard..
Hope I'm wrong, but.. this can't end well.
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On March 09 2020 21:57 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 21:40 Swisslink wrote:On March 09 2020 20:54 BlackJack wrote:On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote: Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights. Not really. But I like the comparison with flights: just because flying is dangerous for sick people, no one argues that flights should be forbidden for everyone. You just advice these people not to fly. Right now, the countermeasures against the Corona Virus are just plain stupid and completely miss the spot. The WHO clearly states that barely any transmission of the virus is happening without any symptoms. Therefore a simple advice not to visit elderly people (or people that are otherwise at risk) if you have symptoms would help more than any idiotic prohibition of any cultural events. Right now we have a mass hysteria based on assumptions that clearly contradict any statement of the health institute. For example: the flu spreads faster than Corona. The flu can be transmitted without symptoms, Corona can‘t. The flu is spread amongst all age groups, Corona is restricted to (mostly) 60+. Especially the last point obviously affects the mortality rate of the virus. And as mentioned: yes, we have to protect those people at risk. But not with overall prohibitions, and instead clear communication not to visit mass events if you‘re at risk and that you shouldn‘t visit your parents/grandparents and shouldn‘t attend any big events if you show any symptoms. I would, however, suggest the same for the seasonal flu as well. Not being a dick should be the first rule under any circumstances. Thats rather strange interpretation of what WHO is saying : https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronavirusesThey precisly mention that: "Governments and health authorities are taking vigorous action every time a new case of COVID-19 is identified. Be sure to comply with any local restrictions on travel, movement or large gatherings. Cooperating with disease control efforts will reduce your risk of catching or spreading COVID-19"and that You can catch it from people who do not consider themselves sick becuase they feel fine and only have mild symptoms: "However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.".
You're rather mild, saying that it is a "strange interpretation" rather than just 100% uninformed bullshit.
It's also worth noting that the Italian government surely doesn't want to tank their economy and cause mass panic in a significant portion of their country (which includes a large portion of their own voter base, before you intercede with "it's just politics"). They are sure to have informed with their own national health institute and international experts in epidemiology and virology, and decided upon these Draconian measures not because of political expedience, but because the medical professionals estimate this is a good policy.
Now might I be overestimating the Italian government? Absolutely. They may just be panicking and doing the first thing someone suggested. But given the huge hit they are taking economically for this, I want to believe they weighed pros and cons before doing this, and that they are more informed than some random posters on TL.
Especially also considering that if the reports from China are to be trusted, similar Draconian measures there contributed significantly to stopping the spread. Are they strictly necessary? I want to say it'll depend heavily on how the disease evolves in each country (and between countries). Spain has already come out and thanked Italy for this, because it ensures Spain and other countries do not need to enact travel restrictions to Italy (as a whole) in order to try to stop what is still the main vector of contagion (although secondary transmission rate is increasing, so travel restrictions are probably not too far away for us either). Semana Santa (major holiday) is about a month away, so we'll see what the plan is. I was planning on avoiding travelling outside the country anyway, but maybe we won't even be able to travel outside the region. It'd suck, but I'd rather take these measures than have this disease spread completely out of control.
Of course if these measures cause short-term damage to the economy, which topples too many fragile companies and in term sparks a mid/long-term recession, we just have to hope the cure isn't actually worse than the disease. People die from economic downfall too. It may not be a direct cause of death like the corona virus, but suicides and substance abuse rise with economic problems. Of course, letting the virus run wild might have all the same harmful economic effects (due to loss of productivity from sick employees) AS WELL AS having a deadly virus run rampant. So... good luck to whoever is trying to model that type of tradeoff.
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On March 09 2020 03:15 Laurens wrote: Belgian media reporting 133 new deaths in Italy today. That’s wild. Why suddenly so many deaths?
User was warned for this post.
Here's one of many sources for whoever reported the post: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51793619 Didn't realise you had to provide a source for something that is frontpage news everywhere around the world.
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On March 09 2020 23:17 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 21:57 Silvanel wrote:On March 09 2020 21:40 Swisslink wrote:On March 09 2020 20:54 BlackJack wrote:On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote: Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights. Not really. But I like the comparison with flights: just because flying is dangerous for sick people, no one argues that flights should be forbidden for everyone. You just advice these people not to fly. Right now, the countermeasures against the Corona Virus are just plain stupid and completely miss the spot. The WHO clearly states that barely any transmission of the virus is happening without any symptoms. Therefore a simple advice not to visit elderly people (or people that are otherwise at risk) if you have symptoms would help more than any idiotic prohibition of any cultural events. Right now we have a mass hysteria based on assumptions that clearly contradict any statement of the health institute. For example: the flu spreads faster than Corona. The flu can be transmitted without symptoms, Corona can‘t. The flu is spread amongst all age groups, Corona is restricted to (mostly) 60+. Especially the last point obviously affects the mortality rate of the virus. And as mentioned: yes, we have to protect those people at risk. But not with overall prohibitions, and instead clear communication not to visit mass events if you‘re at risk and that you shouldn‘t visit your parents/grandparents and shouldn‘t attend any big events if you show any symptoms. I would, however, suggest the same for the seasonal flu as well. Not being a dick should be the first rule under any circumstances. Thats rather strange interpretation of what WHO is saying : https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronavirusesThey precisly mention that: "Governments and health authorities are taking vigorous action every time a new case of COVID-19 is identified. Be sure to comply with any local restrictions on travel, movement or large gatherings. Cooperating with disease control efforts will reduce your risk of catching or spreading COVID-19"and that You can catch it from people who do not consider themselves sick becuase they feel fine and only have mild symptoms: "However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.". You're rather mild, saying that it is a "strange interpretation" rather than just 100% uninformed bullshit.
How is it uninformed? I pretty much quoted the WHO, who stated:
The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID- 19.
Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
-> Slower transmission than the flu. -> rarely a transmission without symptoms.
Happened a few times so far, but it wasn‘t a major driver of transmission. And yes, the WHO does suggest to contain the virus. They suggest that not because it‘s insanely dangerous, but because we might be able to contain it - in contrast to the seasonal flu. There, it‘s impossible.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
Right now, the panicking masses are a bigger danger than the virus itself.
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Welp, was scheduled to go to a conference on Wednesday and it just got cancelled because all the industry people stayed away. Meh.
There is a Reddit thread in German by someone who is quarantined in his home. Basically the local authorities check up on you every day and bring you food until it's over. They also check your id and face to make sure you stay inside. A delivery man tried to give them a package for their neighbors and bailed when the person walked out in full protection gear, thought that was funny.
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On March 10 2020 00:01 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 23:17 Acrofales wrote:On March 09 2020 21:57 Silvanel wrote:On March 09 2020 21:40 Swisslink wrote:On March 09 2020 20:54 BlackJack wrote:On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote: Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights. Not really. But I like the comparison with flights: just because flying is dangerous for sick people, no one argues that flights should be forbidden for everyone. You just advice these people not to fly. Right now, the countermeasures against the Corona Virus are just plain stupid and completely miss the spot. The WHO clearly states that barely any transmission of the virus is happening without any symptoms. Therefore a simple advice not to visit elderly people (or people that are otherwise at risk) if you have symptoms would help more than any idiotic prohibition of any cultural events. Right now we have a mass hysteria based on assumptions that clearly contradict any statement of the health institute. For example: the flu spreads faster than Corona. The flu can be transmitted without symptoms, Corona can‘t. The flu is spread amongst all age groups, Corona is restricted to (mostly) 60+. Especially the last point obviously affects the mortality rate of the virus. And as mentioned: yes, we have to protect those people at risk. But not with overall prohibitions, and instead clear communication not to visit mass events if you‘re at risk and that you shouldn‘t visit your parents/grandparents and shouldn‘t attend any big events if you show any symptoms. I would, however, suggest the same for the seasonal flu as well. Not being a dick should be the first rule under any circumstances. Thats rather strange interpretation of what WHO is saying : https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronavirusesThey precisly mention that: "Governments and health authorities are taking vigorous action every time a new case of COVID-19 is identified. Be sure to comply with any local restrictions on travel, movement or large gatherings. Cooperating with disease control efforts will reduce your risk of catching or spreading COVID-19"and that You can catch it from people who do not consider themselves sick becuase they feel fine and only have mild symptoms: "However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.". You're rather mild, saying that it is a "strange interpretation" rather than just 100% uninformed bullshit. How is it uninformed? I pretty much quoted the WHO, who stated: Show nested quote +The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID- 19.
Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission. -> Slower transmission than the flu. -> rarely a transmission without symptoms. Happened a few times so far, but it wasn‘t a major driver of transmission. And yes, the WHO does suggest to contain the virus. They suggest that not because it‘s insanely dangerous, but because we might be able to contain it - in contrast to the seasonal flu. There, it‘s impossible. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2Right now, the panicking masses are a bigger danger than the virus itself.
Okay, but *what* panicking masses? You implied the draconian measures were due to panicking masses, rather than a potentially necessary precaution, which you should comply with rather than panicking (and trying to jump on a train to Rome at the last minute, or buy your entire supermarket's supply of toilet paper).
Also, the reason those panicking masses are dangerous is because they either spread the virus (because containment would've worked if only people hadn't tried to escape), or because they take resources away from people who need it more (you don't need 3 years' supply of TP in your home, but someone else who is all out could really use that TP that you bought in a panicked flurry), or because they are spreading nonsense (drinking corona beer gives you corona).
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Five hours ago I said that they will close schools here in Bucharest. Well, from Wednesday they close them!
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TLADT24920 Posts
We have 34 cases of covid now in Ontario and I expect this number to spike as time passes. There's a good chance that there's unreporting (not intentional obviously) so will have to wait and see how things look in another month or two. I do have to agree with one of the previous assertions though. Mass panicking will only make things worse. Biggest thing is to make sure to have something at your place for 14 days in the case that you have to self-isolate. There's no need to drain the market of rice, toilet paper etc... otherwise. As for myself, I'm not really worried. I do have elderly parents and do deal with that population on a semi-daily basis so they would be my biggest concern.
Also, a friend of mine shared this story on fb. From reading it, it seems like the US is really really unprepared for this despite knowing that its coming. It's a bit of a long read, but quite insightful. Spoilered due to length: + Show Spoiler +I want to share with everyone my story of potentially having COVID-19 and how our health care system is completely broken in dealing with this. If you think people are getting tested and being isolated from the rest of the public, think again. Think there are no cases in your community? Think again. If my story is any indication, this thing is way out of control already -- we just aren’t testing people so we don’t know about it.
I will start with my travel history. On Sunday, February 23, I began a trip to Thailand for a meeting for work. I didn’t read the news that morning because I was busy getting packed and out of the door. My first flight left from Dulles and landed in Seoul 14 hours later (it’s now Monday, 2/24). There was no wi-fi on the flight and so it wasn’t until I landed that I knew that South Korea was experiencing an outbreak. I bought a mask in the airport, got some food and coffee, and then boarded my plane to Bangkok. I spent five days in a meeting in Bangkok washing hands religiously. On Saturday 2/29 I began my trip back. My trip had been rerouted back through London so that I would avoid South Korea. I spent the night in London near the airport and returned to Dulles on Sunday March 1st.
You may remember that on Saturday there was a big announcement from Trump saying that they would be taking increased measures to ensure people coming from South Korea would be evaluated and tested when necessary. So, I was a little worried I would have trouble getting back into the country. Every other country I had flown through they made announcements on the plane as we were landing. In Thailand there were public health officials randomly testing people coming off of my flight and in all other countries there were clear signs of what to do if you don’t feel well directing you to people to talk to. In London, public health people even boarded the plane before we could disembark. When I got to Dulles, there was nothing. I didn’t see a single sign, there were no announcements, and while I was looking, I didn’t see anyone checking anyone’s health or a place where people could ask someone a question.
I was looking because toward the end of that last flight, the lymph nodes in my neck started to swell and that is usually a sign I’m about to be sick. I called my ex-husband to ask him to keep the kids for an extra day to be on the safe side and made a quick stop by the grocery store to get some food for the week.
On Monday I was achy, had a headache, had chills and generally felt horrible. But, no fever or chest congestion and so I wasn’t too worried just thinking I had picked up a cold travelling. On Tuesday when I woke up, I got more concerned because there was now congestion in my chest, and I was coughing and having shortness of breath. I called my asthma doctor who told me to go to the ER because they didn’t have the capacity to deal with it and they thought I should be tested. I understood they were asking people to not just show up anywhere but to call first to let them know you are coming. I called GW hospital and they said not to come because they don’t have the tests. They told me that I should call the DC Department of Health.
I called the Department of Health. The man on the phone took a detailed history of my symptoms and my travel history and said that the shortness of breath could be from my asthma, I don’t have a fever, and because I’m low risk I don’t qualify to be tested. I was surprised to be called low-risk with my travel history. I know there are people at greater risk, and so I let it go. I asked if I should continue to self-quarantine and he said that limiting my interactions would be good and if I needed to go out wear a mask and wash hands a lot. I asked for how long and he said for 14 days since I was in South Korea. He also said to call back if my symptoms worsened or changed in any way. He said they would keep monitoring my case.
Over the course of the week, my symptoms would get better and then worse. I didn’t feel like I was on death’s door and felt much like I have felt when I’ve had the flu but with no head congestion. On Wednesday night I was up with stomach cramps and diarrhea, and I also found out that one of my work colleagues was not feeling well. She is in rural Indonesia where testing isn’t possible and so there is no way to know if she has it. So, on Thursday morning I called back to Department of Health and the woman I talked to was clearly not familiar with my case and seemed to have no way to find my earlier call. I went through everything again, and told her of the new symptoms and my colleague being sick. She said that I haven’t been in contact with anyone who has it (she doesn’t care that my colleague is sick because she hasn’t been tested), and that I’m low risk. She said that if I feel I need to be tested, the way to do that is to go to my doctor and my doctor can recommend I be tested. I asked her whether I should extend my self-quarantine since I am now displaying symptoms, and she said no. That I don’t need to self-quarantine, and that I should treat it just like if I had a cold or the flu. I can go out in public just try not to cough on anyone and wash my hands a lot. I was stunned.
I called my doctor again who told me to go to urgent care or the emergency room, but they didn’t have capacity to deal with it. I really wanted to avoid the emergency room and didn’t think they would test me if I went so I didn’t go. I also thought going into a room full of sick people just wasn’t that great of an idea or either of us. On Friday, a friend contacted the director of the Department of Health who told me to go to an urgent care facility (even listing a few). So, instead of showing up I called a few, and they told me that they were not equipped to handle this and that I should go to the ER. I was then told by my friend that the director said they are doing testing at GW hospital’s emergency room and I should go there. That if a doctor thought I should be tested, they would test me there.
So, on Friday at 2:15, I arrived at the ER at GW. I told them I had been in South Korea. There clearly was someone else there in the same situation. They had me take a seat and then called me over to the triage nurse. She took my history and symptoms and told me they needed to put me in isolation. I was already wearing a mask but she also put gloves on my hands. They didn’t have a room right away and so put me in an area of the waiting room that was away from others and told the security guard not to let anyone else sit there. I was beginning to feel like I was in the right place where people were taking it seriously. Soon they called me back to a room. I saw a doctor and they said they were going to do a viral screen to rule out everything. It’s an ER, it took a long time, but I was in isolation thinking someone was taking me seriously and I was feeling good about that. After a few hours the doctor poked her head in to say I had tested positive for Flu B and they would be discharging me soon and get rest and liquids. About a half hour later, she came back in to apologize that she had mixed up my room with the room next door (I believe there were 3 other people there also being assessed for Covid-19 at the time), and that my flu test was actually negative as were the other things they test for and so now they would do a test for Covid-19. Time passed and I didn’t hear anything. After several hours the doctor came back in and told me that she was very sorry but the department of health was refusing to run the test. They said I wasn’t in South Korea long enough. She was furious. She said she was still trying to get them to change their mind. She got the chief of staff involved. She kept trying. Nothing. The doctor told me she thought there was a high likelihood that I have it based on my travel history, symptoms, the colleague that is sick, and all other tests coming back negative. But, without the test she couldn’t tell me for sure, and her hands were tied. She asked me to please keep self-quarantining and to come back if my symptoms worsened so that they could at least treat the symptoms. At 11:45, I was discharged and went home.
Do I have Covid-19? Who knows. Do we have a broken public healthcare system that is utterly failing during a health pandemic? Absolutely.
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On March 10 2020 02:00 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 00:01 Swisslink wrote:On March 09 2020 23:17 Acrofales wrote:On March 09 2020 21:57 Silvanel wrote:On March 09 2020 21:40 Swisslink wrote:On March 09 2020 20:54 BlackJack wrote:On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote: Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights. Not really. But I like the comparison with flights: just because flying is dangerous for sick people, no one argues that flights should be forbidden for everyone. You just advice these people not to fly. Right now, the countermeasures against the Corona Virus are just plain stupid and completely miss the spot. The WHO clearly states that barely any transmission of the virus is happening without any symptoms. Therefore a simple advice not to visit elderly people (or people that are otherwise at risk) if you have symptoms would help more than any idiotic prohibition of any cultural events. Right now we have a mass hysteria based on assumptions that clearly contradict any statement of the health institute. For example: the flu spreads faster than Corona. The flu can be transmitted without symptoms, Corona can‘t. The flu is spread amongst all age groups, Corona is restricted to (mostly) 60+. Especially the last point obviously affects the mortality rate of the virus. And as mentioned: yes, we have to protect those people at risk. But not with overall prohibitions, and instead clear communication not to visit mass events if you‘re at risk and that you shouldn‘t visit your parents/grandparents and shouldn‘t attend any big events if you show any symptoms. I would, however, suggest the same for the seasonal flu as well. Not being a dick should be the first rule under any circumstances. Thats rather strange interpretation of what WHO is saying : https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronavirusesThey precisly mention that: "Governments and health authorities are taking vigorous action every time a new case of COVID-19 is identified. Be sure to comply with any local restrictions on travel, movement or large gatherings. Cooperating with disease control efforts will reduce your risk of catching or spreading COVID-19"and that You can catch it from people who do not consider themselves sick becuase they feel fine and only have mild symptoms: "However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.". You're rather mild, saying that it is a "strange interpretation" rather than just 100% uninformed bullshit. How is it uninformed? I pretty much quoted the WHO, who stated: The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID- 19.
Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission. -> Slower transmission than the flu. -> rarely a transmission without symptoms. Happened a few times so far, but it wasn‘t a major driver of transmission. And yes, the WHO does suggest to contain the virus. They suggest that not because it‘s insanely dangerous, but because we might be able to contain it - in contrast to the seasonal flu. There, it‘s impossible. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2Right now, the panicking masses are a bigger danger than the virus itself. Okay, but *what* panicking masses? You implied the draconian measures were due to panicking masses, rather than a potentially necessary precaution, which you should comply with rather than panicking (and trying to jump on a train to Rome at the last minute, or buy your entire supermarket's supply of toilet paper). Also, the reason those panicking masses are dangerous is because they either spread the virus (because containment would've worked if only people hadn't tried to escape), or because they take resources away from people who need it more (you don't need 3 years' supply of TP in your home, but someone else who is all out could really use that TP that you bought in a panicked flurry), or because they are spreading nonsense (drinking corona beer gives you corona).
I can‘t talk for all countries, but around here, people are stealing the masks and the disinfectants from the freaking hospitals, even the place where the cancer patients are located. Result? Problems with treating those. Additionally, people are rushing to the hospitals with the first signs of a flu, out of fear it might be Corona. And again: the people that actually needed treatment are endangered because of it. It got to a point where our health minister asked the population not to go to the hospital because of minor symptoms, if they‘re not part of the „risk group“ because they are most likely mild and nothing will happen.
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I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo.
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On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo.
But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places.
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On March 10 2020 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo. But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places.
Your mortality rate is also a lot larger than that of other places, which suggests that you might have a lot more people infected than is reported.
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On March 10 2020 03:51 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo. But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places. Your mortality rate is also a lot larger than that of other places, which suggests that you might have a lot more people infected than is reported.
Why does a higher morality rate mean more people were infected? Meaning people who died from flu stuff maybe was actually Corona?
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On March 10 2020 03:56 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 03:51 Nebuchad wrote:On March 10 2020 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo. But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places. Your mortality rate is also a lot larger than that of other places, which suggests that you might have a lot more people infected than is reported. Why does a higher morality rate mean more people were infected? Meaning people who died from flu stuff maybe was actually Corona?
Well there's no reason why the virus would kill Americans more efficiently than people of other countries (except that your healthcare sucks I guess but I don't think that's what's happening here lol) so if so many people are dead it's probably likely that a lot more people are sick, but we don't know that, and that's why the stats look different.
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On March 10 2020 04:03 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 03:56 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:51 Nebuchad wrote:On March 10 2020 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo. But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places. Your mortality rate is also a lot larger than that of other places, which suggests that you might have a lot more people infected than is reported. Why does a higher morality rate mean more people were infected? Meaning people who died from flu stuff maybe was actually Corona? Well there's no reason why the virus would kill Americans more efficiently than people of other countries (except that your healthcare sucks I guess but I don't think that's what's happening here lol) so if so many people are dead it's probably likely that a lot more people are sick, but we don't know that, and that's why the stats look different.
I thought the reason the death rate is all weird is that it beats the shit out of old people? So if it gets into an old folks home, gg. If it runs around a school, not so bad.
Who knows. I'll just wait this out.
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I can add for those wondering about the part where it says states are testing, here's what I could find regarding that for Washington (where there's been more than a dozen deaths already).
1. Maxed currently at about 100 people a day they can test of a population of ~7,500,000 (with plans to increase testing capacity in 2 weeks)
2. Private/commercial testing is ramping up (unclear from the site where to find more reliable information on that)
3. Even when testing is available, obtaining samples will be slower than desired.
4. There's no different treatment available so people should just treat any noted symptoms like it is covid-19.
As I mentioned there's nothing for people that can't afford to get quarantined, so while it is good the tests may become increasingly available, it is unclear they will be able to be administered in a way that prevents people that can't afford to self-quarantine from avoiding testing to keep working in order to avoid jobless/homelessness.
Source and more information available here: www.doh.wa.gov
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United States42251 Posts
On March 10 2020 03:56 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 03:51 Nebuchad wrote:On March 10 2020 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo. But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places. Your mortality rate is also a lot larger than that of other places, which suggests that you might have a lot more people infected than is reported. Why does a higher morality rate mean more people were infected? Meaning people who died from flu stuff maybe was actually Corona? Sampling bias. If you test everyone who is slightly sick you’ll catch a bunch of cases where people recover and get a low death to infected ratio. But if you’re only testing people admitted to hospital with serious issues then you’re excluding a lot of potential infected but not in serious danger cases from your sample.
People who are dying from Coronavirus are way, way more likely to be tested than people who have it but are healthy because hospital is a last resort in the US and there is a deliberate policy of not testing probable cases.
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On March 10 2020 04:30 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2020 04:03 Nebuchad wrote:On March 10 2020 03:56 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:51 Nebuchad wrote:On March 10 2020 03:46 Mohdoo wrote:On March 10 2020 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't see any sign (in one of the hardest hit states thus far) of this not getting a LOT worse in the US than it has just about everywhere else before it gets better. There's no way you'll be able to definitively say anyone travelling out of the US doesn't have COVID-19 for at least a year imo. But it feels like it has slowed way down. Still only a few cases in Oregon. Basically just took out an old folks home in Washington, right? It really just isn't exploding in the US like it did other places. Your mortality rate is also a lot larger than that of other places, which suggests that you might have a lot more people infected than is reported. Why does a higher morality rate mean more people were infected? Meaning people who died from flu stuff maybe was actually Corona? Well there's no reason why the virus would kill Americans more efficiently than people of other countries (except that your healthcare sucks I guess but I don't think that's what's happening here lol) so if so many people are dead it's probably likely that a lot more people are sick, but we don't know that, and that's why the stats look different. I thought the reason the death rate is all weird is that it beats the shit out of old people? So if it gets into an old folks home, gg. If it runs around a school, not so bad. Who knows. I'll just wait this out.
Looking at this, you have 624 infected and 22 dead. Japan with 530 infected has 9 dead, and Spain with 28 dead has 1102 infected.
It's not going to be exactly as deadly because of the random luck of who gets infected, for sure, but a difference this large seems unlikely to me. I could be wrong for sure.
Edit: Germany's stats also don't seem quite in line with that of other countries according to this
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One of the major side effects of the virus on world economics is that the alliance between Russia and OPEC is now gone. OPEC was negotiating with Russia to cut production and keep oil prices up but Russia refused in order to not lose more market share to the US. Now the Saudis are dumping oil into the market and the price of oil is going down to $25 a barrel or so.
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