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On March 09 2020 12:28 Bagration wrote:
Hope everyone and their loved ones are safe - what's the group's take on how this pandemic is going to turn out? Anything y'all are doing to prepare?
My fear is that while the situation in China and South Korea give optimism, the situation in Western EU is fast deteriorating, and the situation in the USA is a fiasco. In that case, one country fucking up and letting the virus run rampant will continue to endanger the rest of the world.
If the direct deaths from this virus weren't bad enough, its indirect impact might be more devastating - triggering severe global recession and overwhelming health systems.
At this point, it really seems like the high optimism we might have seen 3-4 weeks ago is giving way to the reality that this is going to be quite bad. The overall situation looks like it's slowly slipping out of control, not being contained, and there seems to be a fairly significant event related to the coronavirus every other day or so. This is going to be a big one.
What to do to prepare? Stock up on essentials (cough syrup, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, reasonable supply of non-perishable food, etc), avoid international travel, and hope for the best is my take. It's not really feasible to work from home for months unless everyone is doing it, and I'm not going to stay locked in the house for weeks just to avoid exposure either. Good to be able to avoid the grocery store for a couple of weeks if you get infected. Not sure there's much else to be done unless you just want to isolate yourself from the world and have the means to be able to do so.
A recession in the aftermath of this seems reasonably likely. Not strictly because of the virus itself, but because it's the first real shock to the system in quite a long time, and the fundamentals don't look so good.
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I see several xenophobic attacks on Asians in the west regarding the virus. Yea the Chinese were to be blamed initially, but surely now you'd be more afraid of an european than Chinese now logically speaking?
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On March 09 2020 12:38 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 10:34 DucK- wrote:
I find it strange that with so much more time to prepare for the virus, Italy and many other countries appear incapable to contain the spread. Maybe it's because I'm too used to my country's efficiency and effectiveness, maybe because I have zero grasps of the issues big countries have (Singapore is soooo small). But surely much more could have been done? I don't know how to make my comment not political, but Singapore is very unique in terms of economy, respect and enforcement of the law.
Geography is much more important in this case. Also Italy especially northern Italy is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world. Circumstances are very much different.
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On March 09 2020 12:28 Bagration wrote:
Hope everyone and their loved ones are safe - what's the group's take on how this pandemic is going to turn out? Anything y'all are doing to prepare?
My fear is that while the situation in China and South Korea give optimism, the situation in Western EU is fast deteriorating, and the situation in the USA is a fiasco. In that case, one country fucking up and letting the virus run rampant will continue to endanger the rest of the world.
If the direct deaths from this virus weren't bad enough, its indirect impact might be more devastating - triggering severe global recession and overwhelming health systems.
There are now 177 known cases in Norway and 0 deaths so far. There are still 0 deaths under the age of 11 globally afaik. Sorry, the virus is not that dangerous, and for healthy people even less so.
I am much more worried about the hysterical countermeasures than the virus itself.
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On March 09 2020 17:03 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 12:28 Bagration wrote:
Hope everyone and their loved ones are safe - what's the group's take on how this pandemic is going to turn out? Anything y'all are doing to prepare?
My fear is that while the situation in China and South Korea give optimism, the situation in Western EU is fast deteriorating, and the situation in the USA is a fiasco. In that case, one country fucking up and letting the virus run rampant will continue to endanger the rest of the world.
If the direct deaths from this virus weren't bad enough, its indirect impact might be more devastating - triggering severe global recession and overwhelming health systems. There are now 177 known cases in Norway and 0 deaths so far. There are still 0 deaths under the age of 11 globally afaik. Sorry, the virus is not that dangerous, and for healthy people even less so. I am much more worried about the hysterical countermeasures than the virus itself.
There are 0 reported cases in Congo. Virus really must not be dangerous at all! The 2-4% mortality rate must be a Chino-Italian hoax!
Or... maybe..
A) Norway got lucky.
B) It is relatively new in Norway and hasn't progressed to its terminal stage yet in any patients.
C) Norwegian countermeasures have been particularly effective and they should share their best practices.
Also, what have deaths under 11 got to do with anything? The fact that children can cope well with the virus is great news, but doesn't really help adults at all.
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Zurich15365 Posts
Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean.
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Also a lot of people are completely missing the point. You cant say "those countermeasures are too drastic, look how few people are dying/getting infected". Its beacuse of those "too drastic countermeasures" its not spreading like wildfire.
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On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote:
Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean.
The over 50 category happens to include mine, and I would guess almost everybody here's parents.
I'm young, active and healthy, if I get it, small chance of hospitalization, smaller chance of dying. Even without hospitalization I could probably pull through with over the counter drugs.
If my parents get it they could die with the best care in the world. That's what I'm worried about.
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As always, people not giving a fuck getting people sick and/or killed..
People that know the risks of travelling, especially to the hotbeds of this pandemic really don't deserve any empathy when they get sick.. Worst thing is that they can spread this shit to others..
I'm really kinda worried about myself, but more about my older and elderly family members..
What a fucking mess. . . 
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What baffles me the most is that Germany still has full on public football games...
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On March 09 2020 19:26 Velr wrote:
What baffles me the most is that Germany still has full on public football games...
Every gathering of more than 1000 people is advised against, but still possible AFAIK. Give it 1 more week and it will be strictly forbidden
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It's a minor consequence, but I would absolutely love it if this forced a bunch of dinosaur workplaces to develop functional work-from-home policies. There are so many jobs that can be done remotely that are still stuck in a 9-5 cubicle because their boomer manager never left the 80s.
If we're all still here afterwards, we might find ourselves in a flexible-work revolution.
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Here in Romania, we have 15 or 16 confirmed cases. Maybe they will close schools. All press writes only about Corona Virus. I don't have a mask , but I hope I wont need it !
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On March 09 2020 20:08 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 19:26 Velr wrote:
What baffles me the most is that Germany still has full on public football games... Every gathering of more than 1000 people is advised against, but still possible AFAIK. Give it 1 more week and it will be strictly forbidden
AAAAA yes, we have that too! No more than 1000 persons gathered in one place !
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On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote:
Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean.
It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights.
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On March 09 2020 19:05 Amui wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote:
Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. The over 50 category happens to include mine, and I would guess almost everybody here's parents. I'm young, active and healthy, if I get it, small chance of hospitalization, smaller chance of dying. Even without hospitalization I could probably pull through with over the counter drugs. If my parents get it they could die with the best care in the world. That's what I'm worried about.
Chinese specialists said young people would probably die due to cytokine storm,which means your immune system is activated too much and starts to attack yourself.Well,the possibility is small of course.
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On March 09 2020 20:54 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote:
Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights.
Not really. But I like the comparison with flights: just because flying is dangerous for sick people, no one argues that flights should be forbidden for everyone. You just advice these people not to fly. Right now, the countermeasures against the Corona Virus are just plain stupid and completely miss the spot. The WHO clearly states that barely any transmission of the virus is happening without any symptoms. Therefore a simple advice not to visit elderly people (or people that are otherwise at risk) if you have symptoms would help more than any idiotic prohibition of any cultural events.
Right now we have a mass hysteria based on assumptions that clearly contradict any statement of the health institute. For example: the flu spreads faster than Corona. The flu can be transmitted without symptoms, Corona can‘t. The flu is spread amongst all age groups, Corona is restricted to (mostly) 60+. Especially the last point obviously affects the mortality rate of the virus. And as mentioned: yes, we have to protect those people at risk. But not with overall prohibitions, and instead clear communication not to visit mass events if you‘re at risk and that you shouldn‘t visit your parents/grandparents and shouldn‘t attend any big events if you show any symptoms. I would, however, suggest the same for the seasonal flu as well. Not being a dick should be the first rule under any circumstances.
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This still prerequisites people adhering to advice. Politicians clearly know the populace better than you, hence the, in part, Draconian measures.
Anecdotal: northern Italians rushing for the trains to the south as it v vame clear there would be quarantine the next day.
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On March 09 2020 17:03 Slydie wrote:
There are now 177 known cases in Norway and 0 deaths so far. There are still 0 deaths under the age of 11 globally afaik. Sorry, the virus is not that dangerous, and for healthy people even less so.
I am much more worried about the hysterical countermeasures than the virus itself.
Keep in mind that (which Acrofales in this threat also suggests) the people with Covid-19 in Norway were infected quite recently. This virus appears to cause a prolonged illness, which may take a turn for the worse after a week or more. The first Norwegian Covid-19 patient was hospitalized yesterday, and so far today three more have followed.
The numbers from Italy, where people have been sick longer, are not looking good at all. 366 out of a total of 988 cases where the patient has either died or recovered, has ended with the patient dying. That's a case fatality rate of 37 percent. We don't yet know what will happen in the rest of the 7375 known cases in Italy.
From a mortality perspective one might hope that there's also a lot of people in Italy that have been infected but only developed mild symptoms, on the other hand this will surely complicate the containment effort.
(Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
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On March 09 2020 21:40 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2020 20:54 BlackJack wrote:On March 09 2020 18:00 zatic wrote:
Yeah this "only people over 50 are dying, it's all good" is kind of mean. It's like saying you're not concerned about school shootings or Boeing jets smashing into the ground because you're not in school and you don't take flights. Not really. But I like the comparison with flights: just because flying is dangerous for sick people, no one argues that flights should be forbidden for everyone. You just advice these people not to fly. Right now, the countermeasures against the Corona Virus are just plain stupid and completely miss the spot. The WHO clearly states that barely any transmission of the virus is happening without any symptoms. Therefore a simple advice not to visit elderly people (or people that are otherwise at risk) if you have symptoms would help more than any idiotic prohibition of any cultural events. Right now we have a mass hysteria based on assumptions that clearly contradict any statement of the health institute. For example: the flu spreads faster than Corona. The flu can be transmitted without symptoms, Corona can‘t. The flu is spread amongst all age groups, Corona is restricted to (mostly) 60+. Especially the last point obviously affects the mortality rate of the virus. And as mentioned: yes, we have to protect those people at risk. But not with overall prohibitions, and instead clear communication not to visit mass events if you‘re at risk and that you shouldn‘t visit your parents/grandparents and shouldn‘t attend any big events if you show any symptoms. I would, however, suggest the same for the seasonal flu as well. Not being a dick should be the first rule under any circumstances.
Thats rather strange interpretation of what WHO is saying : https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses
They precisly mention that: "Governments and health authorities are taking vigorous action every time a new case of COVID-19 is identified. Be sure to comply with any local restrictions on travel, movement or large gatherings. Cooperating with disease control efforts will reduce your risk of catching or spreading COVID-19"
and that You can catch it from people who do not consider themselves sick becuase they feel fine and only have mild symptoms: "However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.".
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