EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 146
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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Gina
241 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On May 02 2020 18:25 Gorsameth wrote: Any chance that its stable at that number because the real limit is the amount of tests and that is keeping stable? It could look unnatural because your not seeing the natural curve. I assume the US doesn't publish numbers on ICU capacity? that would show a much clearer picture because regardless of your ability to test. Possible, but the US has quite a lot of testing. At a rate of 300k tests per day, the 1-in-10 occurrence of new positive tests is reasonably stable. I wouldn't call that testing-constrained by any stretch. The actual results are without a doubt a mediocre estimate of the "natural curve" but I see nothing so unusual about the way the US handles it that would make it unique in this regard. ICUs seem quite localized in their over/undercapacity right now from what I can tell. | ||
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Slydie
1935 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/5kSSrBg.png) The last week or so is inaccurate, but the peaks should be correct by now. Some observations: -Most experienced the first sympthoms between the 13th and 25th of March, with the 16th and 20th as spike days. The normal incubation time is between 3 and 7 days. The lockdown started the 15th. It was obvioulsy too late, but did have a dramatic effect on new infections. -The actual deaths spiked later, between the 28th of March and the 3rd of April, with the peak day on April 2nd with 961 -From that point, there has been a steady decline on all fronts. -Lately, the health authorothies have started to public antibody tests as well. On topic: I doubth many Spanish people will ever be out running an early morning again! It is understandable, as being locked up for 50 days is tough to ask from anyone. The schedule is: 6-10: Sports/walking for general population. 10-12: Age 70+ and persons in need of assistance. 12-19: Kids accompanied with an adult. 19-20: Age 70+ and persons in need of assistance. 20-23: Sports/walking for general population. No restrictions for villages of less than 5000 people. There was a fun story about a village with 5001 inhabitants. Many are not happy about this level of detail management of people's life, but for now, the relief of finally going outside again outweighs it. It puzzles me that most of these new "rights" were never taken away in other countries which have dealt much better with the virus. Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_92_COVID-19.pdf https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200501/asi-podremos-salir-calle-horarios-edades-limitaciones/2013141.shtml | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
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TT1
Canada10035 Posts
On May 02 2020 05:33 Vindicare605 wrote: This is starting to get really crazy. This whole thing is really putting a big old test on American federalism. Despite how much I agree with Governor Newsom's order to close down the beaches in OC, the fact that the city council is overriding it is also something I agree with, I think local governments should have the ability to have the final say. Either way, this is turning into a big mess and these protests are clearly not practicing safe social distancing. They better make that vaccine quick. Can you imagine the prolonged damage this is going to have if people just go out regularly (no masks, no social distancing etc.)? Imagine 1-2+ years of this, it's unbelievable. I feel like people aren't gonna take this issue seriously until it affects them personally. It still feels distant to most people, it really hasn't hit home yet. Hello? This virus has spread to every continent, just because it hasn't reached your state or city/town yet doesn't mean it won't. It's extremely sad because by the time everyone does take it seriously it'll be too late, once again. Haven't we seen this story play out before? Preventive measures need to be taken.. not reactive (that's the advantage you get from being hit late). There's nothing greater than the collective health of society. Unfortunately a half ass quarantine for a month won't accomplish much. The reward you get for abiding by a strict quarantine is that you help keep society safe (which includes you, your friends and family) and you get to restart the economy with less likelihood of future setbacks (avoiding exponential growth, having to re-lockdown, over-flooding hospitals etc.). We'll have to see how many more deaths it'll take before everyone starts taking this seriously. It's unbelievable to me how split the country is, especially relative to the Asian nations. You would think that something as serious as a pandemic would help bring people together. I still think it will eventually but it'll be at the expense of others. Human nature at its finest, i guess. It's sad because we're causing the death of others, to me that's the worst form of selfishness. Nothing else to say. | ||
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Vivax
22298 Posts
What I am going to judge are rushed treatments. Plenty of examples in history of what a poorly understood drug can do. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18270 Posts
On May 03 2020 00:50 Slydie wrote: I think now it is safe to revisit this curve from Spain: The last week or so is inaccurate, but the peaks should be correct by now. Some observations: -Most experienced the first sympthoms between the 13th and 25th of March, with the 16th and 20th as spike days. The normal incubation time is between 3 and 7 days. The lockdown started the 15th. It was obvioulsy too late, but did have a dramatic effect on new infections. -The actual deaths spiked later, between the 28th of March and the 3rd of April, with the peak day on April 2nd with 961 -From that point, there has been a steady decline on all fronts. -Lately, the health authorothies have started to public antibody tests as well. On topic: I doubth many Spanish people will ever be out running an early morning again! It is understandable, as being locked up for 50 days is tough to ask from anyone. The schedule is: 6-10: Sports/walking for general population. 10-12: Age 70+ and persons in need of assistance. 12-19: Kids accompanied with an adult. 19-20: Age 70+ and persons in need of assistance. 20-23: Sports/walking for general population. No restrictions for villages of less than 5000 people. There was a fun story about a village with 5001 inhabitants. Many are not happy about this level of detail management of people's life, but for now, the relief of finally going outside again outweighs it. It puzzles me that most of these new "rights" were never taken away in other countries which have dealt much better with the virus. Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_92_COVID-19.pdf https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200501/asi-podremos-salir-calle-horarios-edades-limitaciones/2013141.shtml I dunno man. I've seen pictures of the run/bike lane along the beach of Barcelona this morning and social distancing was completely out the window. Not all the time, but at the peak it was packed. We waited til the evening and went for a walk around the town, and it was a bit busy at times, but mostly social distancing was okay. We thought more restaurants would be open for takeaway, but not much was. | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10665 Posts
On May 03 2020 04:45 Vivax wrote: We'll see if the gatherings have consequences for health & healthcare. I'm not going to judge them either way. What I am going to judge are rushed treatments. Plenty of examples in history of what a poorly understood drug can do. Most definitely. I never thought about if some pharmacy companies have their hand in with FDA to get some trials rushed so that they will be the first ones to get their “COVID remedy” drug in headlines. The sensationalism sells it self. | ||
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Slydie
1935 Posts
Can you imagine the prolonged damage this is going to have if people just go out regularly (no masks, no social distancing etc.)? Imagine 1-2+ years of this, it's unbelievable. I feel like people aren't gonna take this issue seriously until it affects them personally. It still feels distant to most people, it really hasn't hit home yet. This is not how virus infections work. They call it "flatten the curve" and not "stop the pandemic" for a reason. The peak of a steap curve will cause hospitals to be overwhelmed (like this virus has in many areas) and more people to get the virus, but it will also decline more rapidly as pack immunity is achieved faster and you can only get the virus once. I dunno man. I've seen pictures of the run/bike lane along the beach of Barcelona this morning and social distancing was completely out the window. Not all the time, but at the peak it was packed. I am not sure if that schedule is the best. The streets were packed in the "exercise" hours, but there were almost nobody outside during the "kids" hours when Spanish eat lunch (13-16.) Just leaving it all open, maybe except the "old people" hours would probably have been better. When parents are only allowed 1 hour outside with their kids, they won't do it during lunch. In 1-3 weeks time, we will know if opening up the streets had an effect on new cases. My guess is that it will not be by much. Keeping pople locked up for even more time was not really an option either. I have seen a lot of miserable faces through the windows! | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
People will protest against a new lockdown even more then some are already doing against the first lockdown. Every change makes things more complicated and will see increased resitance so maybe thats why most countries try to be on the safe side of things. To not only flatten the curve properly but also to smooth out the response and keep the trust of the public. The lockdowns are really starting to get an effect now,it took over 2 months of lockdown to get a considerable decline in new cases and casualties. I think its good to be on the safe side here,any extra week spend in lockdown now will be regained and even more in the future. The lower the amount of infections when the lockdown ends,the easier it is to keep the disease under control and the longer it will take before a new lockdown will be needed. If infecections get really low then maybe a new lockdown wont be needed at all. This contrary to the scenario of opening up to early and having to face another lockdown relatively soon. Beeing on the safe side is not only good for public health,in the end it is also much better for the economy. | ||
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Slydie
1935 Posts
The lockdowns are really starting to get an effect now,it took over 2 months of lockdown to get a considerable decline in new cases and casualties. Why are you claiming something like this? If you look at the graph I posted, it should be very clear that lockdowns work right away, but there is a considerable delay between actual new infections, when they are discovered and when they cause serious illness and death. 2 months is FAR too much. Please! | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On May 04 2020 00:45 Slydie wrote: Why are you claiming something like this? If you look at the graph I posted, it should be very clear that lockdowns work right away, but there is a considerable delay between actual new infections, when they are discovered and when they cause serious illness and death. 2 months is FAR too much. Please! There is not only 1 chain of contamination. 1 month would be enough is everyone was seeing *no one*. However you still have a family, some still go to work etc.. so the chain continues with asymptomatic cases. If you break it too early, you barely lowered the load on hospitals (because people will heavy symptoms take a LOT of time to recover) and still have many ill people even if it doesn't show. Then you reopen, and less than 1 month later you are in the same situation. With 2 months, you actually break the cycle and reduce it to manageable levels. Even then it's not perfect, as we still see around 1000 new hospital arrivals/day after one and a half months here. Have a look at this : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ Click on "reanimations" in the chart, and then "hospitalisations". When confinement was decided on March 17th we had 700 ICU patients. One month after confinement, the numbers were barely beginning to lower. It took 3 weeks to reach the peak, and after one month, we were at 10% below peak ICU patients, and still nearly at the peak of regular covid patients in hospital. If you reopen at that moment ? The virus is still present and circulating in a shitton of people and family clusters. We are going to reopen after 8 weeks. 7 weeks in, ICU cases are still more than 50% from peak, there is still 25k people in hospitals and around 1k/day new hospital patients... It hasn't even disappeared after about 2 months. So, 1 month ? Yeah, let's stop confinement when we are nearing the peak, good stuff. The fact that there is considerable delay between new infections, their detection, maybe after 1 or 2 rounds of asymptomatic cases, and serious illnesses is exactly the reason why 1 month is nearly useless and barely gives respite. You need to give it a few cycles of infection/transfer/antibodies to make sure it's not just waiting to jump out from your wife at the end of the month. | ||
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konadora
Singapore66359 Posts
To Americans, is your individual freedom that much more important than the collective well-being of your society? Like this quarantine is for the benefit of everyone, yet I see so much news about how there are a vocal (but probably minority I hope?) group that are calling for quarantines to be lifted, for hairdressers to be open, beaches to be open, and having the "I don't care if others get it, you are not my responsibility" mindset. Saying how it is your individual right to be out in the open and how being quarantined is not constitutional... Almost every other country has obeyed quarantine orders, and things are starting to get better. Personally, when it comes to a social benefit of the masses, some liberty and freedom has to be sacrificed, and many countries and its citizens agree as well, such as South Korea. Every citizen has to play its part for the benefit of themselves AND each other. But it seems like America is very strongly defending its "freedom", so much so that your individual rights are more important than the collective mass. I'm just very baffled by this mindset. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14105 Posts
Unlike any other nation in the world's history bar maybe the roman empire America is not a homogeneous population in any way. Even the white people come from different nationalities and past that it splinters more and more. The only thing the only thing that holds the country together is a story about freedom that we tell each other and ourselves every single day until we believe it. Yes American exceptionalism is a lie, but in that of itself is exceptional. If we ever really lost that lie we wouldn't be a nation anymore. Americans will murder anyone around them in order to keep their head above water another day. Its the best and worst thing about ourselves. | ||
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On May 04 2020 01:51 konadora wrote: This is not a personal attack but its something I truly want to know... To Americans, is your individual freedom that much more important than the collective well-being of your society? Like this quarantine is for the benefit of everyone, yet I see so much news about how there are a vocal (but probably minority I hope?) group that are calling for quarantines to be lifted, for hairdressers to be open, beaches to be open, and having the "I don't care if others get it, you are not my responsibility" mindset. Saying how it is your individual right to be out in the open and how being quarantined is not constitutional... Almost every other country has obeyed quarantine orders, and things are starting to get better. Personally, when it comes to a social benefit of the masses, some liberty and freedom has to be sacrificed, and many countries and its citizens agree as well, such as South Korea. Every citizen has to play its part for the benefit of themselves AND each other. But it seems like America is very strongly defending its "freedom", so much so that your individual rights are more important than the collective mass. I'm just very baffled by this mindset. To many Americans, yes. America has a pretty unique strain of individualism (i.e. selfishness). Also, recent polls showed that these protesters are actually a significant minority (over 80% of the population supports these stay-at-home orders an are concerned about re-opening too soon). Still though, daily infection numbers have been around 30k per day for a month now with no change in sight. I find it odd that people in the US value their personal freedom higher than the lives of their loved ones. Becaus at the rate you are going, you might be the first country reaching herd immunity at the cost of millions of lives. This is because Americans are selfish. Mind you, it's not selfish in a logical, self-aware, "I care more about myself than my loved ones" way. It's selfish in a "I'm selfish enough to believe stupid, irrational, and illogical conspiracy theories that affirm my own world view and support my selfish interests, regardless of the real-world consequences" way. Americans are quite good at donating, volunteering, helping others, etc., but that's only when it's people around them, in and around their actual community. Cultural values surrounding individualism and deeply ingrained anti-government sentiments mean that Americans are very, very bad at doing anything for a bigger, more nebulous community or "greater good" of society. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
I see it only getting worse when most people show little sign of taking social distancing seriously and only reduce their activity by virtue of the complete lack of things to do when everything is closed down. | ||
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konadora
Singapore66359 Posts
On May 04 2020 02:15 Sermokala wrote: You have to understand the general difference in America then to any other nation in the world. This isn't a nation of people who have lived here for hundreds of years or moved here when pressured by another group. This is a patchwork nation nearly 250 years old with the majority of its population coming in much sooner then that. The whole Idea sold to people to come to America was to give them freedom from their old countries. You look at the gun control debate and why its so different in the rest of the world because In America the right to bear arms was just a way for the British to not have to pay for a standing army to protect people and instead allow people to very legitimately and practically defend themselves. Unlike any other nation in the world's history bar maybe the roman empire America is not a homogeneous population in any way. Even the white people come from different nationalities and past that it splinters more and more. The only thing the only thing that holds the country together is a story about freedom that we tell each other and ourselves every single day until we believe it. Yes American exceptionalism is a lie, but in that of itself is exceptional. If we ever really lost that lie we wouldn't be a nation anymore. Americans will murder anyone around them in order to keep their head above water another day. Its the best and worst thing about ourselves. Hmm this is what confuses me because I'll take my country Singapore as example. We're a country founded for less than a century, but its literally made up of mostly immigrants as it was a sea port town. But with some great urban planning by our colonial British masters AND great government policies to ensure cultural integration and acceptance. So although our ethnical groups comprise of the Chinese, the Malays, the Indians, the Westerners and other Asian ethnicity, we really do see ourselves as "Singaporean" and as one united country on most part. Yeah racism does still exist on a small scale, but we have pretty much built up a nation-before-individual mindset quite a bit in the last 55 years. So that's why America's super strong individualism fascinates and scares me. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
So what is the difference between the UK situation and USA? Looking at the lockdown protests, it seems more likely that the root cause is the general anti-science prevalent in USA and the lack of leadership, or rather the misplaced trust into the leadership of the president of USA who denies the impact of coronavirus to his audience and tells his audience that the governers who place lockdown mechanisms should not have done so. In essence the natural collective instincts of the lockdown protesters are being lead to be against lockdown measures. They aren't being selfish, quite the opposite, as their collective instincts combined with their anti-science have lead them to believe that coronavirus is not a threat. | ||
Kipsate
Netherlands45349 Posts
Not saying its on average not worse in US, but it still happens in places. | ||
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