|
Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On April 22 2020 01:38 KwarK wrote:
The plan was always that mass infection was unavoidable but that distancing would give us time to put mitigation efforts in place like better healthcare and more hygienic practices. But eventually we were going to have to bite the bullet and let everyone get exposed to it, it was just an attempt to delay that until we were ready. Short of implementing universal healthcare I don’t know how much more ready the US is going to get.
I’m shocked not more people knew what the lockdown meant. Maybe it wasn’t emphasized enough. My parents think the virus will go away but I was like “we HAVE to get it to go back to normal”. I think media scared the shit out of everyone about the infection that it is highly fatal with these digits of data etc. So the idea that u need to be exposed to it is frightening to the general populace (or vaccine but we know that’s not till 2021 at best)
|
It's mind boggling that Georgia is planning on relaxing restrictions. I guess Kemp doesn't surprise me, but the graph below is BC. We have ~half the population of Georgia.
![[image loading]](https://i.redd.it/kyr80rwwb2u41.jpg)
We're sitting at mid-20s new infections per day, with enough testing capacity now to test everyone who has flu-like symptoms. We had a couple weeks where we asked all but the most severe cases to stay home and recover, and self-isolate. Even with these numbers, we're still 2-3 weeks away from relaxing restrictions.
If a care home gets infected, you stand a very real chance of losing 30-50% of the residents, despite decent care. In Canada, that's ~350,000 seniors of which 100-150k die, ignoring the millions of seniors who aren't in care homes. There's no realistic way of protecting them without a vaccine.
Edit::
Thinking about it, if USA passes 3k deaths a day, that's a 9/11 event, every day from coronavirus.
Does that change how anyone perceives the event?
|
A lot of people don't realize exactly how low the demand for healthcare is across the country right now. I can't speak for other countries but in the USA unless you're in one of the hotspots, e.g. NY, NJ, New Orleans, Detroit, etc. hospitals are operating at an all-time low census. The irony is that while the shelter-in-place orders have bought time for hospitals to ramp out their staffing and preparedness the exact opposite has happened. Hospitals are not willing to pay people to sit around and do nothing. Workers have been furloughed and laid off by the thousands, entire hospital wards have been closed down, and in a few cases entire hospitals have been closed down. I know many nurses that are at home collecting unemployment checks right now. My girlfriend has been getting paid to sit at home and watch netflix for the last 3 weeks because she has been called-off every shift she was scheduled for. They still have me coming in the emergency room but things have been so dead I've basically been sitting around and talking/joking with coworkers for my shift. Someone set up a gofundme to provide food for ERs/ICUs in my area and they've been delivering 40 individualized meals to us every shift. It's like I'm getting paid to have weird social gatherings with my coworkers and eat free food.
So yeah I'm in support of loosening restrictions. Unless you think we should stay locked down for potentially 2 years until a vaccine is discovered then you should be in favor of loosening restrictions as well. If you're of the opinion that the only way out of this is through herd immunity then you should be in favor of loosening restrictions. You should want our healthcare system to be operating at 80-90% capacity. Right now we're probably operating at 50% if even that which means the fewer cases we work through right now means potentially a bigger spike in the future.
I should probably mention even though it should go without saying that "loosening restrictions" doesn't mean lifting all restrictions. You shouldn't lift any restrictions in places that are already being hit hard or are trending as if they are about to be hit hard. Also restrictions on things like movie theaters, concerts, shows, large gatherings etc, should remain in place. I'd also advise anyone elderly or immunocompromised to continue to shelter in place. I've been doing a lot of hiking lately since everything is closed and I think it's asinine whenever I see hikes and trails closed down. Unless you're in a famous national park like Yellowstone or Yosemite you're not exactly in close contact with anyone in the middle of a forest. Besides that, the people that are able to hike up a mountain are probably the people with good enough lungs to not die from COVID anyway.
|
That’s very eye opening. Respective to the healthcare state of each state I really think lockdown restrictions will really start to loosen by the end of the month
|
On April 22 2020 06:54 Lmui wrote:It's mind boggling that Georgia is planning on relaxing restrictions. I guess Kemp doesn't surprise me, but the graph below is BC. We have ~half the population of Georgia. We're sitting at mid-20s new infections per day, with enough testing capacity now to test everyone who has flu-like symptoms. We had a couple weeks where we asked all but the most severe cases to stay home and recover, and self-isolate. Even with these numbers, we're still 2-3 weeks away from relaxing restrictions. If a care home gets infected, you stand a very real chance of losing 30-50% of the residents, despite decent care. In Canada, that's ~350,000 seniors of which 100-150k die, ignoring the millions of seniors who aren't in care homes. There's no realistic way of protecting them without a vaccine. Edit:: Thinking about it, if USA passes 3k deaths a day, that's a 9/11 event, every day from coronavirus. Does that change how anyone perceives the event?
Daily new cases, daily new deaths are extremely static. Hence, total confirmed cases does not show exponential increase.
Graph does not show hospital utilization, ICU utilization, ventilator availability, so not commenting on that aspect.
From the data presented, relaxation to a small degree is perfectly justifiable. Keep the recommendations on social distancing within crowded areas, mask use, and sequestering to start an exponential growth phase. Make sure sufficient PPE exists for people to comply with mask orders etc.
As to the care home case, I don't think the current normal for ordered restrictions is at all workable if they aren't relaxed sometime prior to a vaccine. Vaccines, should they even prove effective for this kind of virus, are around a year away at the earliest. Current delays in "deemed non-essential" medical procedures like colonoscopies, root canals, cancer treatments, etc are definitely not maintainable until a vaccine. Many nonessential industries that are paused can survive somewhat for a period of 3 months, but will really make their absence known if they remain down for a year. I think more people will have to get mentally comfortable with staggered relaxation of restrictions that currently wish to wait for a vaccine.
Compare with Texas governor Abbot, excerpts from news article:
At the same time, Abbott announced school buildings will remain closed through the end of the school year, as health officials have determined it is still unsafe for students to gather in large numbers. Teachers will be allowed in classrooms for video instruction, administrative tasks and to clean out their classrooms.
“The number of infections and hospitalizations is beginning to level off. We have a steady supply of PPE like face masks. We have plenty of hospital rooms and ventilators to treat,” he said. “Our fellow Texas deaths, while far too high, will not come close to the early dire predictions.”
In the short term, the order loosens some restrictions on surgeries beginning Monday, provided there is enough personal protective equipment or PPEs.
Abbott also ordered that state parks be reopened Monday, with groups no larger than five people. Those going to state parks will also be required to wear masks or face coverings and must maintain a distance of 6 feet from people who are not members of their own household.
University of Houston NPR
Schools still closed, but a number of businesses allowed to open, masks/face coverings, 6 ft, groups under 5 etc etc
On April 22 2020 07:44 BlackJack wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
A lot of people don't realize exactly how low the demand for healthcare is across the country right now. I can't speak for other countries but in the USA unless you're in one of the hotspots, e.g. NY, NJ, New Orleans, Detroit, etc. hospitals are operating at an all-time low census. The irony is that while the shelter-in-place orders have bought time for hospitals to ramp out their staffing and preparedness the exact opposite has happened. Hospitals are not willing to pay people to sit around and do nothing. Workers have been furloughed and laid off by the thousands, entire hospital wards have been closed down, and in a few cases entire hospitals have been closed down. I know many nurses that are at home collecting unemployment checks right now. My girlfriend has been getting paid to sit at home and watch netflix for the last 3 weeks because she has been called-off every shift she was scheduled for. They still have me coming in the emergency room but things have been so dead I've basically been sitting around and talking/joking with coworkers for my shift. Someone set up a gofundme to provide food for ERs/ICUs in my area and they've been delivering 40 individualized meals to us every shift. It's like I'm getting paid to have weird social gatherings with my coworkers and eat free food.
So yeah I'm in support of loosening restrictions. Unless you think we should stay locked down for potentially 2 years until a vaccine is discovered then you should be in favor of loosening restrictions as well. If you're of the opinion that the only way out of this is through herd immunity then you should be in favor of loosening restrictions. You should want our healthcare system to be operating at 80-90% capacity. Right now we're probably operating at 50% if even that which means the fewer cases we work through right now means potentially a bigger spike in the future.
I should probably mention even though it should go without saying that "loosening restrictions" doesn't mean lifting all restrictions. You shouldn't lift any restrictions in places that are already being hit hard or are trending as if they are about to be hit hard. Also restrictions on things like movie theaters, concerts, shows, large gatherings etc, should remain in place. I'd also advise anyone elderly or immunocompromised to continue to shelter in place. I've been doing a lot of hiking lately since everything is closed and I think it's asinine whenever I see hikes and trails closed down. Unless you're in a famous national park like Yellowstone or Yosemite you're not exactly in close contact with anyone in the middle of a forest. Besides that, the people that are able to hike up a mountain are probably the people with good enough lungs to not die from COVID anyway.
You beat me to it as far as negative consequences. Hospitals around me that normally utilize "registry nurses" (nursing agency nurses not attached to a single hospital) are barely bringing in any at all because of low occupancy of beds. Registry nurses that can't get any hours despite availability to work are unhappy. It would also be tough to see hospitals facing shutdowns because of COVID-shutdown bans on "nonessential" medical procedures and other scheduled services.
|
My primary care doctor yesterday told me that everyone at her hospital was facing a 40% salary cut and removal of bonuses.
|
On April 22 2020 08:18 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 06:54 Lmui wrote:It's mind boggling that Georgia is planning on relaxing restrictions. I guess Kemp doesn't surprise me, but the graph below is BC. We have ~half the population of Georgia. We're sitting at mid-20s new infections per day, with enough testing capacity now to test everyone who has flu-like symptoms. We had a couple weeks where we asked all but the most severe cases to stay home and recover, and self-isolate. Even with these numbers, we're still 2-3 weeks away from relaxing restrictions. If a care home gets infected, you stand a very real chance of losing 30-50% of the residents, despite decent care. In Canada, that's ~350,000 seniors of which 100-150k die, ignoring the millions of seniors who aren't in care homes. There's no realistic way of protecting them without a vaccine. Edit:: Thinking about it, if USA passes 3k deaths a day, that's a 9/11 event, every day from coronavirus. Does that change how anyone perceives the event? Daily new cases, daily new deaths are extremely static. Hence, total confirmed cases does not show exponential increase. Graph does not show hospital utilization, ICU utilization, ventilator availability, so not commenting on that aspect. From the data presented, relaxation to a small degree is perfectly justifiable. Keep the recommendations on social distancing within crowded areas, mask use, and sequestering to start an exponential growth phase. Make sure sufficient PPE exists for people to comply with mask orders etc. As to the care home case, I don't think the current normal for ordered restrictions is at all workable if they aren't relaxed sometime prior to a vaccine. Vaccines, should they even prove effective for this kind of virus, are around a year away at the earliest. Current delays in "deemed non-essential" medical procedures like colonoscopies, root canals, cancer treatments, etc are definitely not maintainable until a vaccine. Many nonessential industries that are paused can survive somewhat for a period of 3 months, but will really make their absence known if they remain down for a year. I think more people will have to get mentally comfortable with staggered relaxation of restrictions that currently wish to wait for a vaccine. Compare with Texas governor Abbot, excerpts from news article: Show nested quote +At the same time, Abbott announced school buildings will remain closed through the end of the school year, as health officials have determined it is still unsafe for students to gather in large numbers. Teachers will be allowed in classrooms for video instruction, administrative tasks and to clean out their classrooms.
“The number of infections and hospitalizations is beginning to level off. We have a steady supply of PPE like face masks. We have plenty of hospital rooms and ventilators to treat,” he said. “Our fellow Texas deaths, while far too high, will not come close to the early dire predictions.”
In the short term, the order loosens some restrictions on surgeries beginning Monday, provided there is enough personal protective equipment or PPEs.
Abbott also ordered that state parks be reopened Monday, with groups no larger than five people. Those going to state parks will also be required to wear masks or face coverings and must maintain a distance of 6 feet from people who are not members of their own household. University of Houston NPRSchools still closed, but a number of businesses allowed to open, masks/face coverings, 6 ft, groups under 5 etc etc Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 07:44 BlackJack wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
A lot of people don't realize exactly how low the demand for healthcare is across the country right now. I can't speak for other countries but in the USA unless you're in one of the hotspots, e.g. NY, NJ, New Orleans, Detroit, etc. hospitals are operating at an all-time low census. The irony is that while the shelter-in-place orders have bought time for hospitals to ramp out their staffing and preparedness the exact opposite has happened. Hospitals are not willing to pay people to sit around and do nothing. Workers have been furloughed and laid off by the thousands, entire hospital wards have been closed down, and in a few cases entire hospitals have been closed down. I know many nurses that are at home collecting unemployment checks right now. My girlfriend has been getting paid to sit at home and watch netflix for the last 3 weeks because she has been called-off every shift she was scheduled for. They still have me coming in the emergency room but things have been so dead I've basically been sitting around and talking/joking with coworkers for my shift. Someone set up a gofundme to provide food for ERs/ICUs in my area and they've been delivering 40 individualized meals to us every shift. It's like I'm getting paid to have weird social gatherings with my coworkers and eat free food.
So yeah I'm in support of loosening restrictions. Unless you think we should stay locked down for potentially 2 years until a vaccine is discovered then you should be in favor of loosening restrictions as well. If you're of the opinion that the only way out of this is through herd immunity then you should be in favor of loosening restrictions. You should want our healthcare system to be operating at 80-90% capacity. Right now we're probably operating at 50% if even that which means the fewer cases we work through right now means potentially a bigger spike in the future.
I should probably mention even though it should go without saying that "loosening restrictions" doesn't mean lifting all restrictions. You shouldn't lift any restrictions in places that are already being hit hard or are trending as if they are about to be hit hard. Also restrictions on things like movie theaters, concerts, shows, large gatherings etc, should remain in place. I'd also advise anyone elderly or immunocompromised to continue to shelter in place. I've been doing a lot of hiking lately since everything is closed and I think it's asinine whenever I see hikes and trails closed down. Unless you're in a famous national park like Yellowstone or Yosemite you're not exactly in close contact with anyone in the middle of a forest. Besides that, the people that are able to hike up a mountain are probably the people with good enough lungs to not die from COVID anyway.
You beat me to it as far as negative consequences. Hospitals around me that normally utilize "registry nurses" (nursing agency nurses not attached to a single hospital) are barely bringing in any at all because of low occupancy of beds. Registry nurses that can't get any hours despite availability to work are unhappy. It would also be tough to see hospitals facing shutdowns because of COVID-shutdown bans on "nonessential" medical procedures and other scheduled services.
This is an presentation of the hospitalization/deaths data. BC's been trending downward for a while - we have a few outbreaks but they're largely contained.
![[image loading]](https://i.redd.it/rbyxtw1ww8u41.png)
edit: Our hospital system is quite underutilized at the moment, we're around 50% open beds, and can probably open up elective surgeries etc to bring it up to 80% or so over the next few weeks. Normally our beds are in the 90+% capacity range, so we've overprepared. Better than underprepared for sure.
|
On April 22 2020 06:17 Elroi wrote:
Actually, according to the latest conference by the Folkhälsomyndigheten they have done random tests that show that 2.5% of the population in Stockholm have the disease. According to their math, that means that about a third of the population in Stockholm has had the disease already. sounds about right.
been living in full quarantine here for about a month and a half and people just have it, or had it and cured themselves/did not need a cure. the official count is one thing, the people having the virus is another.
and so, i'm going with the stats coming out of Iceland that said that another ~40% of the population will have the virus, be asymptomatic and fly under the radar of official statistics.
at 820000 confirmed infected in US, you'll get an overall real guesstimate of ~1.150.000 infected.
by the time a vaccine comes, will be with the herd immunity at about ~60%.
|
You guys are fooling yourselves if you think a vaccine will come. Coronaviruses are almost impossible to provide an effective vaccine, just look at the SARS attempts. There is a reason that the response to the cold is to treat the symptoms (many colds are caused by coronaviruses).
It's also bewildering to me how the view of the lockdowns switched from "flattening the curve, and allowing time for our hospitals to ramp up needed supplies" to "stop all/most infection cases". That was never the point and it's an impossible task. This is just going to be with us for a long time. Get used to it. Take universal precautions, but understand this isn't the bubonic plague. If you're in an at-risk category take the same precautions you would for deadly illnesses like pneumonia, influenza, etc, but for everyone else COVID is basically like those afflictions or even milder.
Because this is new and the media is 24/7 COVID with a relative dearth of data comparing relative groups people are unaware how COVID is similar to cases of PNA and influenza in these at-risk groups. Let NY, NJ, MI, etc. stay closed for months while places like SD, GA, TX, etc. do the smart thing and open up before you see huge spikes in suicides, crime, and worse behaviors for viral spread (like say, 400 people gathering together in close proximity to protest the stupid draconian lockdown rules).
|
There are a lot of studies coming out involving antibody testing that shows the # of cases might be much higher than thought which would obviously make the mortality rate a lower lower.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753
The actual number of infections from COVID-19 in Los Angeles County may be as high as 55 times the current number of confirmed positive cases, according to preliminary results from antibody tests conducted as part of a joint venture between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.
Dr. Barbara Ferrer, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health said that the data suggests the county's mortality rate is around 0.1% or 0.2% of true infections
Obviously needs peer review but hopefully antibody testing can give us a lot more insight in the true mortality rate of the virus
|
I'm cautiously optimistic that there might be a possible treatment (not cure, important distinction) coming.
Coronavirus binds to the ACE2 enzyme on our cells. This enzyme is very important in regulating important bodily functions so they don't run amok (simplifying here).
Initially it was thought that blocking or reducing ACE2 receptors (which is a standard treatment for high blood pressure) would be good. This doesn't work and it's probably because the virus has very high affinity to the receptor. Simply put it just pushes to the front of the line and takes the available receptors anyway.
In fact people with low ACE2 seems to get worse than those with high ACE2. This is probably because of two things
a) the virus can't differentiate a receptor that is on a cell surface (which it wants to be able to infect the cell) or just floating around on it's own. So if you have a lot of ACE2 some viral particles will bind to the free enzymes which does nothing for the virus.
b) Available ACE2 prevents excessive damage from the infection and reduces the risk of ARDS. Low ACE2 gets bound by the virus and you get worse damage to your body because of that.
The new treatment would to give free ACE2 that would bind up and wash away virus particles and hopefully reduce damage to organs at the same time.
The articles I read didn't specify a time schedule (although this one says late fall https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/10/coronavirus-ace-2-receptor/).
But at least one version had already been tested on humans and confirmed safe and they were going to set up clinical trials right now so one would hope it could get going even faster.
I think it's the first treatment I've seen where I can find an actual credible idea behind why it would work, unlike for example Vitamin C which just seem to be health stores trying to survive by going viral.
|
I thought the virus binds relatively weakly to ACE2.
However, some kind of decoy ACE2 to bind the virus to might be an interesting idea to handle this
|
On April 22 2020 13:22 Wegandi wrote:
You guys are fooling yourselves if you think a vaccine will come. Coronaviruses are almost impossible to provide an effective vaccine, just look at the SARS attempts. There is a reason that the response to the cold is to treat the symptoms (many colds are caused by coronaviruses).
It's also bewildering to me how the view of the lockdowns switched from "flattening the curve, and allowing time for our hospitals to ramp up needed supplies" to "stop all/most infection cases". That was never the point and it's an impossible task. This is just going to be with us for a long time. Get used to it. Take universal precautions, but understand this isn't the bubonic plague. If you're in an at-risk category take the same precautions you would for deadly illnesses like pneumonia, influenza, etc, but for everyone else COVID is basically like those afflictions or even milder.
I think you won't be right this time. The reason for that is I think not many countries were directly affected by SARS, while this time many, many countries have interest to do their best. Just read news how many organisations are attempting to discover a vaccine. I think this increases the chance to have at least one successful vaccine a lot.
I have a question - if coronaviruses cause common cold, are they so different that we don't have even the slightest immunity/higher fighting chance against COVID-19? Also, I watched an interesting video last night about COVID-19 that immune system overreacts in the end (Killer T Cells and some other cells) and it just kills people. If it's overreaction, why are older people more at risk if they're said to have weaker immune system?
Link to video: + Show Spoiler +
|
On April 22 2020 13:29 BlackJack wrote:There are a lot of studies coming out involving antibody testing that shows the # of cases might be much higher than thought which would obviously make the mortality rate a lower lower. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753Show nested quote +The actual number of infections from COVID-19 in Los Angeles County may be as high as 55 times the current number of confirmed positive cases, according to preliminary results from antibody tests conducted as part of a joint venture between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. Show nested quote +Dr. Barbara Ferrer, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health said that the data suggests the county's mortality rate is around 0.1% or 0.2% of true infections Obviously needs peer review but hopefully antibody testing can give us a lot more insight in the true mortality rate of the virus
And there are also some comments that these antibodies tests used currently are full of shit. It has to be taken with a grain of salt since this is from an executive at a pharmaceutical firm, but still. Be cautious.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/22/coronavirus-live-news-un-warns-of-biblical-famine-as-white-house-prepares-immigration-halt?page=with:block-5e9ff6f88f085a072d3bce7c#block-5e9ff6f88f085a072d3bce7c
Some blood tests being marketed to tell people if they have ever had Covid-19 are a “disaster”, Roche chief executive, Severin Schwan, said on Wednesday, as he prepares to launch the Swiss drugmaker’s own antibody test in May.
In developing its test, Schwan said, Roche scrutinised some existing products now on offer but rejected them as unreliable in determining if somebody has actually ever had the disease.
“It’s a disaster. These tests are not worth anything, or have very little use,” Schwan told reporters on a conference call on the Basel-based company’s first-quarter results. “Some of these companies, I tell you, this is ethically very questionable to get out with this stuff.”
|
On April 22 2020 06:17 Elroi wrote:
Actually, according to the latest conference by the Folkhälsomyndigheten they have done random tests that show that 2.5% of the population in Stockholm have the disease. According to their math, that means that about a third of the population in Stockholm has had the disease already.
Apparently I spoke too soon. The report from Folkhälsomyndigheten has been withdrawn today because of problems with their modelling (source in Swedish).
|
On April 22 2020 18:30 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 13:29 BlackJack wrote:There are a lot of studies coming out involving antibody testing that shows the # of cases might be much higher than thought which would obviously make the mortality rate a lower lower. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753The actual number of infections from COVID-19 in Los Angeles County may be as high as 55 times the current number of confirmed positive cases, according to preliminary results from antibody tests conducted as part of a joint venture between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. Dr. Barbara Ferrer, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health said that the data suggests the county's mortality rate is around 0.1% or 0.2% of true infections Obviously needs peer review but hopefully antibody testing can give us a lot more insight in the true mortality rate of the virus And there are also some comments that these antibodies tests used currently are full of shit. It has to be taken with a grain of salt since this is from an executive at a pharmaceutical firm, but still. Be cautious. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/22/coronavirus-live-news-un-warns-of-biblical-famine-as-white-house-prepares-immigration-halt?page=with:block-5e9ff6f88f085a072d3bce7c#block-5e9ff6f88f085a072d3bce7cShow nested quote +Some blood tests being marketed to tell people if they have ever had Covid-19 are a “disaster”, Roche chief executive, Severin Schwan, said on Wednesday, as he prepares to launch the Swiss drugmaker’s own antibody test in May.
In developing its test, Schwan said, Roche scrutinised some existing products now on offer but rejected them as unreliable in determining if somebody has actually ever had the disease.
“It’s a disaster. These tests are not worth anything, or have very little use,” Schwan told reporters on a conference call on the Basel-based company’s first-quarter results. “Some of these companies, I tell you, this is ethically very questionable to get out with this stuff.”
On April 22 2020 18:14 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 13:22 Wegandi wrote:
You guys are fooling yourselves if you think a vaccine will come. Coronaviruses are almost impossible to provide an effective vaccine, just look at the SARS attempts. There is a reason that the response to the cold is to treat the symptoms (many colds are caused by coronaviruses).
It's also bewildering to me how the view of the lockdowns switched from "flattening the curve, and allowing time for our hospitals to ramp up needed supplies" to "stop all/most infection cases". That was never the point and it's an impossible task. This is just going to be with us for a long time. Get used to it. Take universal precautions, but understand this isn't the bubonic plague. If you're in an at-risk category take the same precautions you would for deadly illnesses like pneumonia, influenza, etc, but for everyone else COVID is basically like those afflictions or even milder. I think you won't be right this time. The reason for that is I think not many countries were directly affected by SARS, while this time many, many countries have interest to do their best. Just read news how many organisations are attempting to discover a vaccine. I think this increases the chance to have at least one successful vaccine a lot. I have a question - if coronaviruses cause common cold, are they so different that we don't have even the slightest immunity/higher fighting chance against COVID-19? Also, I watched an interesting video last night about COVID-19 that immune system overreacts in the end (Killer T Cells and some other cells) and it just kills people. If it's overreaction, why are older people more at risk if they're said to have weaker immune system? Link to video: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY
A doesn't mean that B is not possible. There could be septic shocks, there could be an dangerous inflammatory response in the lungs or somewhere else, there could be uncontrolled spreading of the virus in the organism, there could be a lot of things. Old people are at risk because their immune system is weaker and in the end, is unable to stop the spread, people with comorbidities are at risk because another virus weakens them further and is an aggravating factor, smokers might be less or more at risk depending on how you take it (slight unconfirmed possibility they have less chance to have a serious case, but in case of a serious case, more at risk to die), men are more vulnerable and nobody knows why, etc etc...
And for your first question, our immunity is based on the exact proteins of a specific virus strain. Why do you believe we need a different vaccine for flu each year ? It's the same family of virus, it's just a slightly different one, but we still need a different vaccine. Since common cold and Covid were initially targeting different species, there is only a very little chance that immunity to one means immunity to the other.
Also, there is the question of how long we are immune for. Antibodies might not be permanent. They are not for every vaccine or every illness. "It depends".
|
Regarding the vaccine, here's an article with one of our leading immunologists talking about the challenges. A bit surface-level but still interesting.
I've not worked with him myself, but he was responsible for the HPV vaccine against cervical cancer about 10 years ago, and certainly knows what he's doing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
There are several reasons why our upper respiratory tract is a hard area to target a vaccine.
"It's a separate immune system, if you like, which isn't easily accessible by vaccine technology," Professor Frazer told the Health Report.
Despite your upper respiratory tract feeling very much like it's inside your body, it's effectively considered an external surface for the purposes of immunisation.
"It's a bit like trying to get a vaccine to kill a virus on the surface of your skin."
The ABC has received many questions around how long immunity lasts and whether someone can be reinfected.
To answer this we have to go back to what we know about coronaviruses that cause the common cold, according to Professor Frazer.
"I think it would be fair to say that the natural immunity that you get after infection from this coronavirus is probably going to turn out like the coronaviruses we've seen in the past.
"There will be some natural protection over a period of months, maybe even years, but it won't be lifelong.
"The good news is that if you get reinfected with the virus a second time some months down the track, there will probably be enough immunity there to stop you becoming seriously ill."
This all sounds a bit negative so I will add that nothing I'm hearing suggests a vaccine is not possible.
This is not HIV where there's an actual mechanism to evade the immune response. A big reason we don't have a vaccine for any coronaviruses so far is that we haven't needed one. There's no point trying to vaccinate against the common cold. For SARS/MERS, the first attempts went badly but there was also no need to push further when they died out on their own.
It's hard, for sure, but we knew that. It will take time.
|
|
|
On April 22 2020 05:44 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 01:17 Acrofales wrote:On April 22 2020 00:40 Slydie wrote:On April 21 2020 17:30 SC-Shield wrote:On April 21 2020 08:13 Slydie wrote:
Suicides, domestic abuse are effects of quarantines which are difficult to justify, but I still think the big story is actually the mass psychological stress and illness which comes with it. Being quarentined myself, reading the article I went yup-yup-yup-yup for the different possible sympthoms listed. Some of them for myself, others from people I talk to.
Also, being in a situation like that can make you a much worse parent, partner or other family member, so some abuse will be a consequence of the quarantine itself.
Yes, reading about 500-2500 people dying every day in your country is very scary too, and will be part of the slow recovery process after this. However, that most of those are 80+, and many would not have had many years left anyway is often undercommunicated. The main focus should always be if the hostpitals are about to be overwhelmed or not. 1. Your comment doesn't have any sources to support your point that suicides and abuse are up. 2. Your comment doesn't have any proof that these people "would not have had many years left anyway". There are people aged 17 and slightly older that died and didn't have any underlying health problems. Did they also not have many years left? And on top of that, it's an incredibly dumb post too. Think of your grandmother and grandfather, would you also say "it's a few years, so it doesn't matter if they die now or later"?! Wouldn't you want to spend more years with your loved ones? This is probably the worst post I've read in the last pages here. Every person you sentence to death to coronavirus is a loved one to someone. Everybody who dies for any reason is loved by someone, do you think Corona victims are somehow loved more than others? The last time I checked, the AVERAGE Corona victim in Italy was 80 years old, and in Norway it was 84. For that to happen, you need very few young victims and a significant amount of very old ones. Why do you pretend like this virus is an equal threat to everybody when it clearly is not? There are a few examples of young people dying from this virus, but that should not freak anybody out. Some young people die from just about any disease out there, and we don't freak out about that. Anybody who dies from anything is loved, but I don't understand why Corona victims matter so much more than anyone else. I bet nobody has looked up how many has died from cancer, heart attacks and other lower respiratory infections the last couple of months. The only numbers I have seen about deaths this year vs average deaths are from the Netherlands, definitely not one of the hardest hit countries. The estimate I saw was 80% more than average, and it also said the last time this many people died in a single week was 1945 (an infamous winter during which many people starved to death at the end of WW2). It'll take one heck of a lot of suicides and domestic violence cases to rival that. And this is the Netherlands, where the hospitals have been able to cope well with peak load. Compare that to Italy, Spain or NYC and you can see the problem. That is really interesting, do you have a source? I have been following the numbers in Sweden pretty closely and for a very long time there was surprisingly no particular difference between the average number of deaths this year compared to other years. Now that is not the case anymore, however. Going back a couple of weeks the numbers have risen to about 300 deaths per day here compared to an average of about 250 per day over the last five years (I could give a source, but it'd be in Swedish). So we are now at a level of about 20% more people dying in the country than what could have been expected were it not for the virus. That kind of comparison could probably provide an interesting perspective on the actual situation in different countries since they all seem to count corona deaths differently.
Only sources I can find are Dutch. But the graphs are pretty self-explanatory. Using NPO (public broadcast) as the main source, but lots of other sources reported it as well and the original numbers come from the central bureau of statistics, which has tracked weekly deaths throughout the years in NL.
https://www.nporadio1.nl/achtergrond/23164-argos-flattenthecurve-hoe-dodelijk-is-covid-19-echt
|
A decent source on excess mortality is euromomo: https://www.euromomo.eu/
Data there only available up to week 15, ending on the 12th April.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
