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On April 09 2020 23:13 Mohdoo wrote:Especially when we're not totally 100% set on whether reinfection is possible or not.
I think this reinfection myth is so far due to the following:
- people were tested too quickly after recovery (maybe virus lingers around for a little bit after symptoms, just like common cold does, you're still infectious for a few more days allegedly)
- false positive
On April 09 2020 23:22 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2020 23:13 Mohdoo wrote:On April 09 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:
"We have reached the peak" of the pandemic, says Spain's PM
Link: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-09-20/h_58a159b4419850fe3c4f422d8a0ad7d8Ok, this scares me to be honest. It sounds like they think they can predict the future, act like virus is their own weapon and they can control it or something weird like that. How can you know you've reached the peak when there was 4-day decline, then cases rose again and the next day you announce this is the peak? I think anything could happen, so I'm confused by this announcement. Especially when we're not totally 100% set on whether reinfection is possible or not. He probably knows more about the situation behind the numbers than you do. Also, a record 4800 were reported as recovered in Spain yesterday, which should be among the highest in one day for any country so far. There has not been any reinfection waved anywhere yet, like in China. Can't we worry about them when they actually happen?
Nope, he doesn't. No one can predict the future. Things could go horribly wrong in a few days but hopefully not. This statement about peak implies that cases will never rise above a certain amount, not even one-off day. This is what I can't believe yet. It's too soon to say.
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An item that is difficult to ascertain and in controversy due to lack of information is not a myth.
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The reinfection thing most definitely is a myth, because scientifically it contradicts everything we've learned about viruses withiin the last 100 years.
Once your immune system is capable of building antibodies, you are immune to it unless the virus mutates. A week ago, Dr. Fauci acknowledged, that reinfection in such a short time frame is very very unlikely and contradicting the science, in a recent Youtube interview with Dr. Mike.
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On April 10 2020 01:07 thePunGun wrote:The reinfection thing most definitely is a myth, because scientifically it contradicts everything we've learned about viruses withiin the last 100 years. Once your immune system is capable of building antibodies, you are immune to it unless the virus mutates. A week ago, Dr. Fauci acknowledged, that reinfection in such a short time frame is very very unlikely and contradicting the science, in a recent Youtube interview with Dr. Mike.
Well, you could always get measles and give your immune system a bit of amnesia.
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I think I've mentioned sometime at the beginning that I was afraid it would persist in some cells. Replace reinfection with reactivation and you've got another answer.
If it's a chronic disease, then it can be super bad in regards to long term effects. Chronic inflammation tends to cause cancer.
It shouldn't be too hard to find out with in vitro cell cultures of different tissues just which ones it infects though.
That said, I still think that as long as it isn't conclusive, the harping on reinfection looks more like fearmongering. It should be something obvious to observe.
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On April 09 2020 14:18 Bagration wrote:
It seems like the catastrophic scenarios forecasted for the USA are being avoided? Or have I been conditioned by the more pessimistic outcomes that were mentioned back in March, and now the situation seems like it's improved? It seems like they're now projecting 80K deaths in the USA by August - which is better than previously forecasted.
Unfortunately, it seems like re-infection may be possible even after people recover, so we might not see an end to this until a vaccine is widely available (spring 2021?)
Projected deaths were within good error margins even as they got revised down from what I saw. The projected hospital utilization has been way off comparing projections against actual (stuff like current 210,000 projected vs 45,000 actual for the lockdown scenario). This isn't to say distinct metros do not have troubles with hospital beds/ICU beds available.
The duration of high spread and lockdown, as well as the effects of astronomic unemployment, are still catastrophes in their own right.
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On April 09 2020 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2020 23:22 Slydie wrote:On April 09 2020 23:13 Mohdoo wrote:On April 09 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:
"We have reached the peak" of the pandemic, says Spain's PM
Link: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-09-20/h_58a159b4419850fe3c4f422d8a0ad7d8Ok, this scares me to be honest. It sounds like they think they can predict the future, act like virus is their own weapon and they can control it or something weird like that. How can you know you've reached the peak when there was 4-day decline, then cases rose again and the next day you announce this is the peak? I think anything could happen, so I'm confused by this announcement. Especially when we're not totally 100% set on whether reinfection is possible or not. He probably knows more about the situation behind the numbers than you do. Also, a record 4800 were reported as recovered in Spain yesterday, which should be among the highest in one day for any country so far. There has not been any reinfection waved anywhere yet, like in China. Can't we worry about them when they actually happen? Nope, he doesn't. No one can predict the future. Things could go horribly wrong in a few days but hopefully not. This statement about peak implies that cases will never rise above a certain amount, not even one-off day. This is what I can't believe yet. It's too soon to say.
We predict the future all the time, everywhere. F.i. weather reports are a prediction of the future based on models and data. Similarly you can predict the spread of a virus, with some uncertainty, based on proper models and data.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On April 10 2020 01:07 thePunGun wrote:The reinfection thing most definitely is a myth, because scientifically it contradicts everything we've learned about viruses withiin the last 100 years. Once your immune system is capable of building antibodies, you are immune to it unless the virus mutates. A week ago, Dr. Fauci acknowledged, that reinfection in such a short time frame is very very unlikely and contradicting the science, in a recent Youtube interview with Dr. Mike.
Untrue. For something like HIV, you actually mount quite a robust antibody response, but this does not confer immunity. Similar with chronic hepatitis viral infections, shingles, etc.
I'm not saying SARS-CoV-2 will be like this, but not all antibodies are 100% protective.
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Work is now able to supply us with N95s and has made it mandatory to wear them at all times. This is my first time using it and I have a HARD time breathing, good god. Idk if this can be the norm for me.
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On April 10 2020 02:55 Emnjay808 wrote:
Work is now able to supply us with N95s and has made it mandatory to wear them at all times. This is my first time using it and I have a HARD time breathing, good god. Idk if this can be the norm for me.
This is what we wear for hours on end while caring for patients.
Fuckin' sucks. It feels like you're breathing through a (large) straw.
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On April 10 2020 02:41 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2020 01:07 thePunGun wrote:The reinfection thing most definitely is a myth, because scientifically it contradicts everything we've learned about viruses withiin the last 100 years. Once your immune system is capable of building antibodies, you are immune to it unless the virus mutates. A week ago, Dr. Fauci acknowledged, that reinfection in such a short time frame is very very unlikely and contradicting the science, in a recent Youtube interview with Dr. Mike. Untrue. For something like HIV, you actually mount quite a robust antibody response, but this does not confer immunity. Similar with chronic hepatitis viral infections, shingles, etc. I'm not saying SARS-CoV-2 will be like this, but not all antibodies are 100% protective.
Well HIV/AIDS is of course the one exception, because it directly attaches to T-helper cells, replicates itself, then kills them and basically cripples your immune response, leaving you vulnerable to other diseases.
Which is entirely different than SARS-CoV-2 and therefore doesn't make my point untrue, especially when my previous post included a video of Dr. Fauci and another doctor basically saying the exact same thing I did in that post.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On April 10 2020 04:31 thePunGun wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2020 02:41 opterown wrote:On April 10 2020 01:07 thePunGun wrote:The reinfection thing most definitely is a myth, because scientifically it contradicts everything we've learned about viruses withiin the last 100 years. Once your immune system is capable of building antibodies, you are immune to it unless the virus mutates. A week ago, Dr. Fauci acknowledged, that reinfection in such a short time frame is very very unlikely and contradicting the science, in a recent Youtube interview with Dr. Mike. Untrue. For something like HIV, you actually mount quite a robust antibody response, but this does not confer immunity. Similar with chronic hepatitis viral infections, shingles, etc. I'm not saying SARS-CoV-2 will be like this, but not all antibodies are 100% protective. Well HIV/AIDS is of course the one exception, because it directly attaches to T-helper cells, replicates itself, then kills them and basically cripples your immune response, leaving you vulnerable to other diseases. Which is entirely different than SARS-CoV-2 and therefore doesn't make my point untrue, especially when my previous post included a video of Dr. Fauci and another doctor basically saying the exact same thing I did in that post.
I agree with the overall point that it's unlikely, but I'm arguing semantics, we don't entirely know and cannot guarantee that SARS-CoV-2 will have lasting immunity. With what the know about the virus in animal models and extrapolating from other coronaviruses, sure, re-infection is unlikely, but I will never say never! For example we have no idea whether it might do something strange like persist in a protected site and reactivate later. It's a new virus and we relatively little about it. Plus it may mutate in the future as well.
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Reinfection is unlikely but Korea’s CDC, probably the only country that didn’t handle this coronavirus crisis like an absolute tool, is concerned about re-activation considering they’ve had several cases of recovered patients testing positive shortly afterwards of being theoretically cleared.
It’s a pretty small number fortunately but the bigger concern are people intentionally dropping their guard and believing themselves to be immune.
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I predict as more people gain the anti bodies then they will eventually be less strict with future lockdowns but still strongly recommend people practice social distancing, wearing masks etc. I guess I’m speaking for Hawaii mostly.
As of right now, starting Friday: we have a 11pm-5am curfew. Roadblocks for everyone unless ur a first responder/health worker.
Currently we’re at 300 cases from 200 cases last week. Doing real good
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Curfews are one of the more bizarre restrictions to me. It's the same with reduced hours at supermarkets. All it does is increase density in the active window.
Personally, I think we should be encouraging people to exercise, go to work etc in the middle of the night if they want to.
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Nah then people will use that as a guise to drink with their friends and still have gatherings. Also this gives more enforcing capabilities to cops when they set up roadblocks so not every John and Jane can claim they’re an essential worker on a nightshift.
Market place densities have been dealt with at stores by imposing a customer capacity limit and building lines outside (6ft apart from one another). This also discourages families to go shopping all together, which shouldn’t be happening in the first place.
And idk what daily activities/exercises you can’t do during the day that you can do at night.
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It's not about what you can't do during the day, it's about density.
If you're a worker who can't work from home but your task is somewhat self-contained, you'd be much better off if the other people in your workplace were spread across 3 different shifts rather than all crammed into the same 8 hours.
Same with running, biking etc. Come 8am/4pm many parks and bikeways are packed, even if people are nominally keeping distance. Also true of grocery shopping. Waiting in line with distancing is still higher risk than going in the middle of the night when you can walk straight in and see nobody but the clerk.
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On April 09 2020 23:35 Aveng3r wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2020 23:22 Slydie wrote:On April 09 2020 23:13 Mohdoo wrote:On April 09 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:
"We have reached the peak" of the pandemic, says Spain's PM
Link: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-09-20/h_58a159b4419850fe3c4f422d8a0ad7d8Ok, this scares me to be honest. It sounds like they think they can predict the future, act like virus is their own weapon and they can control it or something weird like that. How can you know you've reached the peak when there was 4-day decline, then cases rose again and the next day you announce this is the peak? I think anything could happen, so I'm confused by this announcement. Especially when we're not totally 100% set on whether reinfection is possible or not. He probably knows more about the situation behind the numbers than you do. Also, a record 4800 were reported as recovered in Spain yesterday, which should be among the highest in one day for any country so far. There has not been any reinfection waved anywhere yet, like in China. Can't we worry about them when they actually happen? No, a lack of proper planning is what got us into this mess. Planning ahead is absolutely essential.
Of course he knows more than you, health supervisors are reporting to him. Saying the peak is reached is not the same as returning to normal life. The "state of alarm" where people are not even allowed to go for a walk anywhere in the country seems likely to be prolonged.
The full extent of the measures Spain is taking will not be clear for a while, but right now, many seem more worried about getting a facemask for walking their dog than the millions of unemployed, incoming wave of bankrupcies, the extremely difficult recovery of the service industry and the massive mental and physical health problems due to isolation.
Unfortunately, there is not easy way out either, as 700 deaths a day (~average recently) and 15000 total so far is a lot, but I feel a lot more worried about the recovery from the countermeasurements than the virus itself.
Also this has taught me that when it comes to predicting the future, even experts can be wrong completely off the charts in both directions.
On the positive side, the 4800 recovered on April 7th seems to be the record for one country in one day, neither Italy nor China has ever came close. The Spanish hc system is very good! It will likely be surpassed by the US in a while.
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EPT
