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On April 10 2019 05:28 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 05:08 JimmiC wrote:On April 10 2019 02:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 02:12 JimmiC wrote:On April 10 2019 02:04 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 01:07 JimmiC wrote:
Because they think any change is a good change since right now all the oil money is being stolen by Maduro/china/Russia/various drug gangs. The US thinks that it would be better if corporate America was getting that. I also don't think that everyone involved is completely evil (though some are) and would like it to be better for the people. But mainly I think the US involvement is about getting the money to their corporations instead of in the hands of their enemy's. And in those regards it is very sad that Maduro did such a shitty job running the country that this is a better alternative. Why do you think it's better for the wealth to go to US oligarchs rather than Maduro? As bad as you think Maduro is, I'm not sure even you accuse him of taking a larger share of the wealth than US oligarchs do to their own citizens, let alone non-white foreigners on valuable natural resources. Add on top of that it's US oligarchs in the era of Trump, so they are even more emboldened to ruthlessly exploit the Venezuelan people than the US typically does to countries where they (help) install an obsequious leader. Because the people are leaving by the millions because they are starving to death. As bad as you think America is I believe Russia is worse. Also all that Guiado is calling for is free and fair elections their is no Guarantee he will win. Perhaps an ACTUAL socialist will emerge. Venezuela is far more of a corrupt narco state than it is a socialist one right now. And I'll take neo liberal over Narco any day of the week. I don't think that whole "millions are leaving because they are starving to death" holds up to scrutiny. Firstly Yemen is what that looks like, yet we don't see anything remotely like that coming out of Venezuela. Also worth noting the US as well as several European countries support the side starving and bombing the children there. So I'm skeptical this has anything to do with the humanitarian side for any of the decision makers involved. Particularly under Trump. "Free and fair elections" are what the leaders the US has installed around the world usually promise, they rarely if ever come though. It's unduly optimistic in my view to think it's going to go differently this time. Venezuela has been trending toward crony capitalism since Chavez's death so it's unlikely a "real socialist" in your view would win an election. It'd most likely be Maduro since despite significant opposition, he's still popular among those that oppose US empire and moving toward capitalism. Guaido was unknown before this and is seen as a US puppet by pretty much everyone, but there is a contingent of about 15%, last I checked, that support that because they are part of the ownership class of Venezuela. And everything I have read says otherwise about the popularity. I Guaido wouldn't win, but in free and fair elections the popular well known opposition would be freed from jail or allowed to return to the country from either their exile or escaping jailing and torturing. To your first point. Why then are millions leaving? Or do you think that is all made up? If it's the later I think you are drinking some wild kool-aid. If it is the first I'd be interested in an alternative reason for the mass exodus. Also, glad your back and I appreciate the new tone. I mean Guaido would be executed already in most countries, including the US. Same or at least jailed for other opposition members that coordinated with the US and other hostile foreign nations in an attempt to forcibly remove the President. So I'm not sure how a free and fair election can happen by your measure. As to people leaving Venezuela, there's a long list of reasons like any other country. It shares a lot of reasons with most of the South/Central American countries experiencing large amounts of emigration, summed up by "US interference". They're mainly leaving because Venezuela is a scary/tough place to be, particularly since Trump became president and they have the resources/health to be able to. Lots of people go shop at the black markets just across the border or will visit family in other countries until things settle down and so on. I'm sure some had some level of malnutrition, but so does 85% of the US so I'm skeptical it was a primary driver of the emigration or that it's being honestly represented in western media.
I think in a normal country the legality of his claim for leadership would be discussed in congress and then likely off to the courts to be sorted out. I also would guess that a independent 3rd party would investigate the elections to see if there was political interference. But alas with a dictator nothing "normal" happens.
That is a interesting theory. I do subscribe to it because I don't believe the US is the root of all the problem in the world. I think the root cause of this is Maduro and his friends and family robbing the country blind and not even doing the basic maintenance required because the greed is so great that not stealing as much and keeping things working isn't a priority.
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On April 10 2019 06:18 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 05:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 05:08 JimmiC wrote:On April 10 2019 02:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 02:12 JimmiC wrote:On April 10 2019 02:04 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 01:07 JimmiC wrote:
Because they think any change is a good change since right now all the oil money is being stolen by Maduro/china/Russia/various drug gangs. The US thinks that it would be better if corporate America was getting that. I also don't think that everyone involved is completely evil (though some are) and would like it to be better for the people. But mainly I think the US involvement is about getting the money to their corporations instead of in the hands of their enemy's. And in those regards it is very sad that Maduro did such a shitty job running the country that this is a better alternative. Why do you think it's better for the wealth to go to US oligarchs rather than Maduro? As bad as you think Maduro is, I'm not sure even you accuse him of taking a larger share of the wealth than US oligarchs do to their own citizens, let alone non-white foreigners on valuable natural resources. Add on top of that it's US oligarchs in the era of Trump, so they are even more emboldened to ruthlessly exploit the Venezuelan people than the US typically does to countries where they (help) install an obsequious leader. Because the people are leaving by the millions because they are starving to death. As bad as you think America is I believe Russia is worse. Also all that Guiado is calling for is free and fair elections their is no Guarantee he will win. Perhaps an ACTUAL socialist will emerge. Venezuela is far more of a corrupt narco state than it is a socialist one right now. And I'll take neo liberal over Narco any day of the week. I don't think that whole "millions are leaving because they are starving to death" holds up to scrutiny. Firstly Yemen is what that looks like, yet we don't see anything remotely like that coming out of Venezuela. Also worth noting the US as well as several European countries support the side starving and bombing the children there. So I'm skeptical this has anything to do with the humanitarian side for any of the decision makers involved. Particularly under Trump. "Free and fair elections" are what the leaders the US has installed around the world usually promise, they rarely if ever come though. It's unduly optimistic in my view to think it's going to go differently this time. Venezuela has been trending toward crony capitalism since Chavez's death so it's unlikely a "real socialist" in your view would win an election. It'd most likely be Maduro since despite significant opposition, he's still popular among those that oppose US empire and moving toward capitalism. Guaido was unknown before this and is seen as a US puppet by pretty much everyone, but there is a contingent of about 15%, last I checked, that support that because they are part of the ownership class of Venezuela. And everything I have read says otherwise about the popularity. I Guaido wouldn't win, but in free and fair elections the popular well known opposition would be freed from jail or allowed to return to the country from either their exile or escaping jailing and torturing. To your first point. Why then are millions leaving? Or do you think that is all made up? If it's the later I think you are drinking some wild kool-aid. If it is the first I'd be interested in an alternative reason for the mass exodus. Also, glad your back and I appreciate the new tone. I mean Guaido would be executed already in most countries, including the US. Same or at least jailed for other opposition members that coordinated with the US and other hostile foreign nations in an attempt to forcibly remove the President. So I'm not sure how a free and fair election can happen by your measure. As to people leaving Venezuela, there's a long list of reasons like any other country. It shares a lot of reasons with most of the South/Central American countries experiencing large amounts of emigration, summed up by "US interference". They're mainly leaving because Venezuela is a scary/tough place to be, particularly since Trump became president and they have the resources/health to be able to. Lots of people go shop at the black markets just across the border or will visit family in other countries until things settle down and so on. I'm sure some had some level of malnutrition, but so does 85% of the US so I'm skeptical it was a primary driver of the emigration or that it's being honestly represented in western media. I think in a normal country the legality of his claim for leadership would be discussed in congress and then likely off to the courts to be sorted out. I also would guess that a independent 3rd party would investigate the elections to see if there was political interference. But alas with a dictator nothing "normal" happens. That is a interesting theory. I do subscribe to it because I don't believe the US is the root of all the problem in the world. I think the root cause of this is Maduro and his friends and family robbing the country blind and not even doing the basic maintenance required because the greed is so great that not stealing as much and keeping things working isn't a priority.
Maybe? But in most countries coordinating with a hostile foreign power and having them threaten military force if your demands for the presidency aren't accepted is a death sentence (life imprisonment, etc...).
I also don't think the US is the root of all the problems of the world. I am curious just how much you think Maduro is stealing and you've mentioned billionaires in country, so I'm curious who you think are some of his friends?
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Dude... its not about how much he is stealing, its about how many people starve.
Fuck ideological bullshit.
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On April 10 2019 07:34 Velr wrote:
Dude... its not about how much he is stealing, its about how many people starve.
Fuck ideological bullshit.
As I mentioned the starving thing doesn't hold up to scrutiny. It's probably not about how many people are "starving" or "free and fair elections" either anyway, else we wouldn't be helping our bombs be dropped on unquestionably starving children in a different country while supporting the theocratic monarchy that's stealing more than Maduro could ever dream of to pay for what we don't do for free to help.
Not sure what "fuck ideological bullshit" means in this context though.
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On April 10 2019 07:34 Velr wrote:
Dude... its not about how much he is stealing, its about how many people starve.
Fuck ideological bullshit.
This, it is my guess that you have been very hurt and discriminated against because of your hatred for the US and capitalism. But compared to the average Venezuelan right now you are living like a king. They can't turn on their taps for water, some times they go without power for days but at least some times a day as their is rolling blackouts. There is not food that is affordable in grocery stores. It is fucking terrible their. And their is no place for the people to earn money so they are forced to leave or take whatever they can get from their local collectivo which makes them indebted to that group and they have to what ever. And even those guys are running out of supply's.
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On April 10 2019 07:40 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 07:34 Velr wrote:
Dude... its not about how much he is stealing, its about how many people starve.
Fuck ideological bullshit. As I mentioned the starving thing doesn't hold up to scrutiny. It's probably not about how many people are "starving" or "free and fair elections" either anyway, else we wouldn't be helping our bombs be dropped on unquestionably starving children in a different country while supporting the theocratic monarchy that's stealing more than Maduro could ever dream of to pay for what we don't do for free to help. Not sure what "fuck ideological bullshit" means in this context though.
How many months or years have to pass with no dropping of bombs and military intervention for you to stop talking like it has happened or will happen but rather that it is a possibility and not a reality. We are 2 weeks away from the 4 month mark.
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On April 10 2019 07:45 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 07:40 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 07:34 Velr wrote:
Dude... its not about how much he is stealing, its about how many people starve.
Fuck ideological bullshit. As I mentioned the starving thing doesn't hold up to scrutiny. It's probably not about how many people are "starving" or "free and fair elections" either anyway, else we wouldn't be helping our bombs be dropped on unquestionably starving children in a different country while supporting the theocratic monarchy that's stealing more than Maduro could ever dream of to pay for what we don't do for free to help. Not sure what "fuck ideological bullshit" means in this context though. How many months or years have to pass with no dropping of bombs and military intervention for you to stop talking like it has happened or will happen but rather that it is a possibility and not a reality. We are 2 weeks away from the 4 month mark.
To be clear the threat has been on the table since Chavez was president and has manifested in attempts at assassinations, coups, and so on.
+ Show Spoiler +I was also referencing Yemen and our ally Saudi Arabia with the present tense bombing if that's what you were talking about?
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Yes that did happen to Chavez. It doesnt mean it will happen here.
If you are so concerned with foriegn influence and invasion how do you feel about the 10000 cubans working in the external and intern al spy network. And now the 100s of Russians?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maduro-survived-lots-help-cuban-100000745.html
Edit: I think our difference in opinion can sort of be summed up in devil you know vs Devil you don't. We know all (or at least many) of the shitty things Maduro has done and is doing to his people. You think the new person would be worse, or could be worse. I think it worth giving him a chance to see if he is not as awful, or even possibly good.
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On April 10 2019 09:18 JimmiC wrote:
Yes that did happen to Chavez. It doesnt mean it will happen here.
Invasion doesn't have to happen at all for my point to remain true.
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I think your difference in opinion is about how bad Maduro is. GH has doubts that the humanitarian situation is as bad as media portraits it and thinks that the exodus is based on other factors. The fact that the USA and EU are actively opposing Maduro also says zero about how bad Maduro is considering that both have no problem supporting Saudi Arabia massacring the populace of Yemen. The fact that Guiado is still alive means that either the country is out of Maduro's grasp or that he's not as suppressive as we think.
I agree that it's hard to get a good read on the situation. It's no secret that the USA's foreign politics has a special interest in socialist SA countries as well as countries with high amounts of oil, so Venezuela is definitely on the plate even if the situation isn't disastrous. But whether or not the situation is disastrous decides how justified the involvement and possibly a military action are.
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On April 10 2019 18:27 Archeon wrote:
I think your difference in opinion is about how bad Maduro is. GH has doubts that the humanitarian situation is as bad as media portraits it and thinks that the exodus is based on other factors. The fact that the USA and EU are actively opposing Maduro also says zero about how bad Maduro is considering that both have no problem supporting Saudi Arabia massacring the populace of Yemen. The fact that Guiado is still alive means that either the country is out of Maduro's grasp or that he's not as suppressive as we think.
I agree that it's hard to get a good read on the situation. It's no secret that the USA's foreign politics has a special interest in socialist SA countries as well as countries with high amounts of oil, so Venezuela is definitely on the plate even if the situation isn't disastrous. But whether or not the situation is disastrous decides how justified the involvement and possibly a military action are.
Which is why I wish he would seek out some actual refugees and talk to them like I have. It would be a pretty elaborate propaganda plan to send them to my small city and have 16 people in a 4 person house and have them cry about family stuck back home. It wont be hard to find them considering 3 million have left. It would also be pretty elaborate to have 4 refugee camps out side of venezuela and have 100s of thousands pick to live there insteadof their homes. The ones who were nurses and other professionals in venezuela that are now prostitutes in columbia or brazil just to get by. You have to also get the redcross and the UN to be involved in the lie. Guaido isnt dead because that is the "red line" for military intervention. However his chief of staff was kidnapped and he "cant run for office for 15 years". 5 opposition leaders before him have ended up jailed tourtured killed or in exile. Only thing keeping him alive is how public and global Guaido is.
Talking to GH about Venezuela is as frustrating as talking to a bery intelligent Trump supporter about climate change. You cant understand why you can't agree on the basic facts untill you realize you are getting those facts from completely different sources.
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On April 10 2019 14:47 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 09:18 JimmiC wrote:
Yes that did happen to Chavez. It doesnt mean it will happen here.
Invasion doesn't have to happen at all for my point to remain true.
I'm starting to think it doesn't matter what happens, to you your point will remain true.
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On April 10 2019 22:34 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 14:47 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 09:18 JimmiC wrote:
Yes that did happen to Chavez. It doesnt mean it will happen here.
Invasion doesn't have to happen at all for my point to remain true. I'm starting to think it doesn't matter what happens, to you your point will remain true.
Well sorta yeah. My point was about something that's already happened. I can repeat it if we've lost track?
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On April 10 2019 22:45 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 22:34 JimmiC wrote:On April 10 2019 14:47 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 09:18 JimmiC wrote:
Yes that did happen to Chavez. It doesnt mean it will happen here.
Invasion doesn't have to happen at all for my point to remain true. I'm starting to think it doesn't matter what happens, to you your point will remain true. Well sorta yeah. My point was about something that's already happened. I can repeat it if we've lost track?
No thanks I think we have had enough repeating of your point. And I think the discussion for now has run its course. No need taking it any further until something else changes. Have a good one.
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I haven't really researched the situation enough to have a founded opinion tbh. Most sources I've heard talk about the topic are main stream media who had too many scandals in recent times for me to trust them anymore. As mentioned above there are a lot of political alignments of the people who want Maduro gone, which also taints their credibility.
But you cite some sources I do trust, i.e. first hand experience and red cross (screw the UN).
The situation is quickly escalating into a second Syria, makes me wonder if we are back in the cold war tbh.
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On April 10 2019 22:55 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 22:45 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 22:34 JimmiC wrote:On April 10 2019 14:47 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 10 2019 09:18 JimmiC wrote:
Yes that did happen to Chavez. It doesnt mean it will happen here.
Invasion doesn't have to happen at all for my point to remain true. I'm starting to think it doesn't matter what happens, to you your point will remain true. Well sorta yeah. My point was about something that's already happened. I can repeat it if we've lost track? No thanks I think we have had enough repeating of your point. And I think the discussion for now has run its course. No need taking it any further until something else changes. Have a good one.
To be fair, you seem to disagree with a point about a fact of history. That working with a hostile foreign power and threatening force to remove the president/leader is typically a capital crime (or imprisonment for more civilized countries).
Hopefully that clears up why what happens going forward is irrelevant to that point.
On April 10 2019 22:57 Archeon wrote:
I haven't really researched the situation enough to have a founded opinion tbh. Most sources I've heard talk about the topic are main stream media who had too many scandals in recent times for me to trust them anymore. As mentioned above there are a lot of political alignments of the people who want Maduro gone, which also taints their credibility.
But you cite some sources I do trust, i.e. first hand experience and red cross (not the UN).
The situation is quickly escalating into a second Syria, makes me wonder if we are back in the cold war tbh.
I advise looking for Black academics and activists in South America. Recently had a group of grad students from Brazil visit a group I'm part of. They tend to have the most informed perspectives on the region and situation. When you talk to marginalized people in SoAm you get a wildly different perspective than what you find in corporate media, especially western corporate media or affluent emigrants that skew whiter.
Greyzoneproject is one of the better western sources imo.
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On April 10 2019 22:23 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2019 18:27 Archeon wrote:
I think your difference in opinion is about how bad Maduro is. GH has doubts that the humanitarian situation is as bad as media portraits it and thinks that the exodus is based on other factors. The fact that the USA and EU are actively opposing Maduro also says zero about how bad Maduro is considering that both have no problem supporting Saudi Arabia massacring the populace of Yemen. The fact that Guiado is still alive means that either the country is out of Maduro's grasp or that he's not as suppressive as we think.
I agree that it's hard to get a good read on the situation. It's no secret that the USA's foreign politics has a special interest in socialist SA countries as well as countries with high amounts of oil, so Venezuela is definitely on the plate even if the situation isn't disastrous. But whether or not the situation is disastrous decides how justified the involvement and possibly a military action are. Which is why I wish he would seek out some actual refugees and talk to them like I have. It would be a pretty elaborate propaganda plan to send them to my small city and have 16 people in a 4 person house and have them cry about family stuck back home. It wont be hard to find them considering 3 million have left. It would also be pretty elaborate to have 4 refugee camps out side of venezuela and have 100s of thousands pick to live there insteadof their homes. The ones who were nurses and other professionals in venezuela that are now prostitutes in columbia or brazil just to get by. You have to also get the redcross and the UN to be involved in the lie. Guaido isnt dead because that is the "red line" for military intervention. However his chief of staff was kidnapped and he "cant run for office for 15 years". 5 opposition leaders before him have ended up jailed tourtured killed or in exile. Only thing keeping him alive is how public and global Guaido is. Talking to GH about Venezuela is as frustrating as talking to a bery intelligent Trump supporter about climate change. You cant understand why you can't agree on the basic facts untill you realize you are getting those facts from completely different sources.
One of the good things that GH does is that he allows positions to be defined more clearly.
Cause when we talked about Venezuela in general some time ago, you sympathized with my position (and Jock's) that when there are conflicting narratives and the media is more or less complicit in one, it's very hard to tell what's really happening, and therefore it's hard to take a side or to figure out what the facts even are.
But here we can see that one position is perceived as climate change and the other is perceived as climate change denial, which is a very different approach. Given your general attitude on Venezuela I have no doubt this new approach is closer to your actual position.
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I don't think it's entirely fair to hold someone responsible for changing his position from "some time ago", I'd argue it's a good thing when people are able to. JimmyC isn't a politician running on those issues. To boot most of the articles linked in this threat are from him and he talked first hand to people affected, it'd be weird if he wasn't more sure of his opinion.
Also he's clearly frustrated and hence his wording might have been a bit more extreme than normally. Cut him some slack 
(Not that I disagree that finding the truth isn't easy here, especially not for people without access to first hand sources.)
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On April 10 2019 23:28 Archeon wrote:I don't think it's entirely fair to hold someone responsible for changing his position from "some time ago", I'd argue it's a good thing when people are able to. JimmyC isn't a politician running on those issues. To boot most of the articles linked in this threat are from him and he talked first hand to people affected, it'd be weird if he wasn't more sure of his opinion. Also he's clearly frustrated and hence his wording might have been a bit more extreme than normally. Cut him some slack (Not that I disagree that finding the truth isn't easy here, especially not for people without access to first hand sources.)
I don't think he has changed his opinion. His posting on Venezuela has been pretty consistent from the start, I just don't think he was quite honest with us (or himself) at that particular time.
But, like, the main point is, there's clarity here. It's good when things are clearer, and that's one of the effects GH has on discourse, we get to the heart of things. GH is putting a lot more trust in the other side of the narrative than I do, or at least he's projecting more trust in the other side of the narrative than I am willing to, but that also means he gets more of a reaction.
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Again I'd argue that JC was emotionally affected (we all are all the time) when he wrote the climate change comparison and might be more understanding of opposing positions normally. He also expresses why he's frustrated and the fact that he posted articles mainly portraying positions against Maduro shows that he's been reading them, which would explain why he developed a stronger opinion on the matter. As he points out in the same post he's also put some personal effort into developing an educated opinion on the matter.
Also imo his comparison was a lot less vicious than you make it out to be, comparing two acts doesn't mean that you compare the objects of said actions, you compare an aspect of the act. If I say that searching for truth is like looking for a needle in a haystack i'm not comparing truth to haystacks. I read it as "GH is stubborn and I'm frustrated".
I don't think "clarity" as in people getting frustrated and move to an extreme corner of a discussion is necessarily a good thing btw. It stalls discussions and makes it hard to look for a solution. We can choose to look for a compromise or define clear cut positions we remain on that don't develop the discussion. "We vs them" is what tears our societies apart atm and it really is anything but helpful.
Ofc I am not arrogant enough to believe that we'll find a solution to a global conflict in an online forum and even if it did it wouldn't matter, but that should still be the goal of a discussion, right?
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WCS
