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South American Politics thread - Page 3
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/21/americas/venezuela-oscar-perez-death-photos-intl/index.html | ||
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa/trump-adviser-warns-russia-on-military-presence-in-venezuela-idUSKCN1RA1LT The Maduro government has also made a rule that Guiardo can not hold public office for 15 years. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-guaido/venezuela-bars-guaido-from-holding-public-office-for-15-years-idUSKCN1R9298 Major black outs continue. https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/03/28/venezuela-blackout-caracas-sot-vpx.cnn In spite of all of this there still seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel. They are still stuck with the two governments and the people suffering. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
This is looking a lot less like a battle of L v R as it is a power struggle between US and it's allys and the Russia/Iran/ China counter force. I say not left vs right because their is nothing Left about the countries supporting Venezuela it is all about having influence in the western Hemisphere. Sunk cost fallacy is probably going to keep people fighting for their side but everyone is losing right now. And whoever wins is going to have huge struggles trying to rebuild the infrastructure that is failing on a massive level due to corruption and lack of maintenance. Who ever "wins" is going to have to take an awful deal from either other countries (think china Iran Russia is Maduro holds on) or corporations if Juan does. Either way it will be bad for the people. Sad times. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
As it stands Guaido is toast imo and the sooner the west stops propping him up the better for the people of Venezuela. Once the failed forced removal of Maduro has passed it would be wise to restart negotiations and open support aid through Mexico, Cuba, etc... We have Trump and a convicted war criminal running the show in the US though so it's pretty much on the European countries that hesitantly signed on to this thing to leave the US alone in their support of Guaido and hope Guaido knows what's best for him. Maduro has been generous but he's not going to protect Guaido forever If the US (or more realistically the European countries) doesn't stop supporting Guaido soon it's only going to get worse. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States34368 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
On April 09 2019 07:34 GreenHorizons wrote: It would seem to me that with the additional benefit of hindsight it would have been best, as many suggested, for all parties involved but most importantly the people of Venezuela to avoid the current situation by not backing Guaido unless he continued the diplomatic process advised by the former PM of Spain who was working closely on negotiations before Guaido backed out with the support of the US. As it stands Guaido is toast imo and the sooner the west stops propping him up the better for the people of Venezuela. Once the failed forced removal of Maduro has passed it would be wise to restart negotiations and open support aid through Mexico, Cuba, etc... We have Trump and a convicted war criminal running the show in the US though so it's pretty much on the European countries that hesitantly signed on to this thing to leave the US alone in their support of Guaido and hope Guaido knows what's best for him. Maduro has been generous but he's not going to protect Guaido forever https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1112131499464294400 If the US (or more realistically the European countries) doesn't stop supporting Guaido soon it's only going to get worse. I can post just as many things about Maduro being and so forth. it is an absolute quagmire. Lets hope it doesn't turn into a civil war. On April 09 2019 07:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: The US just needs to stay out of it entirely. The Monroe Doctrine no longer exists, simply suggest talks in Mexico City, The Hague, or Switzerland and then leave. This is very true. But the Guaido side demands fair elections and Maduro has said no way. So they both have their feet dug in. I don't know that talks would work. It is not like it one side of the country vs another so they can't even split it. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
On April 09 2019 08:00 JimmiC wrote: I can post just as many things about Maduro being and so forth. it is an absolute quagmire. Lets hope it doesn't turn into a civil war. I'm not sure what the first sentence means but civil war hinges on US and European support. If the US stops supporting Guaido there's no war. If aid flows then everything gets better faster and diplomacy can continue. If the US keeps supporting Guaido it can only get worse. He doesn't have his tenuous claim to the presidency anymore either. Basically the only thing making him president is western countries saying he is, which isn't really a good look. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
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GoTuNk!
Chile4410 Posts
US leaving the thing alone is the best for the US obviously, the problem are the millions who will die in the following years because of Maduro's doing. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
On April 09 2019 09:28 JimmiC wrote: And if Russia cuba Iran and China stop supporting Maduro there is no civil war and fair and free elections can happen. The US, according to itself, is better and wiser than they are. The US shouldn't expect them to back off on threat of the US instigating war on behalf of Guaido. Many people saw this point coming, which is why they said the US should stop doing what it was doing before we even got here. That we couldn't rely on Trump/Abrams to do this in a way that didn't make everything worse, and so on. Guaido isn't in charge, Maduro is president no matter what the western media and leaders say. So if one guy is actually in charge, and the US's guy is in charge only in the US's mind, it seems clear the US has to back off. The faster the support for Trump and Abrams stops, the better. Trying to force Guaido into office failed, even if people were doing it with the best intentions. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands5388 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
On April 09 2019 13:11 GreenHorizons wrote: The US, according to itself, is better and wiser than they are. The US shouldn't expect them to back off on threat of the US instigating war on behalf of Guaido. Many people saw this point coming, which is why they said the US should stop doing what it was doing before we even got here. That we couldn't rely on Trump/Abrams to do this in a way that didn't make everything worse, and so on. Guaido isn't in charge, Maduro is president no matter what the western media and leaders say. So if one guy is actually in charge, and the US's guy is in charge only in the US's mind, it seems clear the US has to back off. The faster the support for Trump and Abrams stops, the better. Trying to force Guaido into office failed, even if people were doing it with the best intentions. I understand why you think the US is hoping for a war, not only is the story that Maduro and his propaganda machine have been posting, and also the far left media. But also the US has in the past done it so it makes the theory believable. (it is strange to me that the far left supports Maduro when he is so far from being a socialist, but that is neither here nor there) Also, appointing a slimeball like Abrams to manage it with his history only gave credibility to this theory. However, we are now months in, and no invasion has happened. Even when Maduro and his men refused aid, shot and killed indigenous people(the poorest of the poor, thanks for being a socialist...) for trying to get aid, kidnapped journalists, kidnapped Guaido's chief of staff, Russian military showing up, and so on. There has been a lot of reasons that the US could have used to invade if they wanted to. They have shown they are happy to sanction the Oil and more than that they have frozen as many of the assets of the government leaders as possible. It is amazing how many Billionaires and Millionaires there are in positions of power in Venezuela (draw your own conclusions about how socialist they are). Then they are letting the infrastructure that was poorly maintained to begin with fail. This strategy has it's down sides, like it hurts everyone in Venezuela not just Maduro. But I prefer over the invasion. I would prefer both would just agree to elections. Lets not forget Guaido is not naming himself President. He is naming himself interm president until they can have elections. Also, lets not pretend like the "people" support Maduro, some do some don't. The last free election held their the oposition won 70% of the seats before Maduro disbanded them. There are also over 3 million people who have fled as refugee's who would most certainly not support him. So I understand why you think the US is evil and anything it supports must be evil. But the countries supporting Maduro are just as bad if not worse and as I have mentioned the refugee's I have talked to (none who have light skin) are very supportive of Guaido, in fact they want military intervention because they believe that is the only way Maduro will leave. I hope they are wrong. I wish Maduro was actually confident he had his peoples support and was like fine, I'll hold fair free elections, they can be oversaw by the UN, Russia and who ever else wants to. I'll free all the political prisoners I've captured and tortured and lets see who supports who. I wouldn't even be surprised if some one other than Guaido won, but I would be super shocked if Maduro won, without the actions of the Cuban secret police and muscle of the colectivos I think his support would diminish greatly. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
On April 10 2019 00:36 JimmiC wrote: I understand why you think the US is hoping for a war, not only is the story that Maduro and his propaganda machine have been posting, and also the far left media. But also the US has in the past done it so it makes the theory believable. (it is strange to me that the far left supports Maduro when he is so far from being a socialist, but that is neither here nor there) Also, appointing a slimeball like Abrams to manage it with his history only gave credibility to this theory. However, we are now months in, and no invasion has happened. Even when Maduro and his men refused aid, shot and killed indigenous people(the poorest of the poor, thanks for being a socialist...) for trying to get aid, kidnapped journalists, kidnapped Guaido's chief of staff, Russian military showing up, and so on. There has been a lot of reasons that the US could have used to invade if they wanted to. They have shown they are happy to sanction the Oil and more than that they have frozen as many of the assets of the government leaders as possible. It is amazing how many Billionaires and Millionaires there are in positions of power in Venezuela (draw your own conclusions about how socialist they are). Then they are letting the infrastructure that was poorly maintained to begin with fail. This strategy has it's down sides, like it hurts everyone in Venezuela not just Maduro. But I prefer over the invasion. I would prefer both would just agree to elections. Lets not forget Guaido is not naming himself President. He is naming himself interm president until they can have elections. Also, lets not pretend like the "people" support Maduro, some do some don't. The last free election held their the oposition won 70% of the seats before Maduro disbanded them. There are also over 3 million people who have fled as refugee's who would most certainly not support him. So I understand why you think the US is evil and anything it supports must be evil. But the countries supporting Maduro are just as bad if not worse and as I have mentioned the refugee's I have talked to (none who have light skin) are very supportive of Guaido, in fact they want military intervention because they believe that is the only way Maduro will leave. I hope they are wrong. I wish Maduro was actually confident he had his peoples support and was like fine, I'll hold fair free elections, they can be oversaw by the UN, Russia and who ever else wants to. I'll free all the political prisoners I've captured and tortured and lets see who supports who. I wouldn't even be surprised if some one other than Guaido won, but I would be super shocked if Maduro won, without the actions of the Cuban secret police and muscle of the colectivos I think his support would diminish greatly. There's a lot there I obviously disagree with but I think I should clarify that the US doesn't "want war" and didn't. The MIC loves a good war, but the overarching interest of US oligarchs is wealth. US oligarchs want the oil. John Bolton said as much out in public While I understand your position regarding Maduro, what I don't understand is why you think Trump and a convicted war criminal are supporting Guaido and elections (that may or may not ever happen under a theoretical Guaido presidency)? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
On April 10 2019 01:07 JimmiC wrote: Because they think any change is a good change since right now all the oil money is being stolen by Maduro/china/Russia/various drug gangs. The US thinks that it would be better if corporate America was getting that. I also don't think that everyone involved is completely evil (though some are) and would like it to be better for the people. But mainly I think the US involvement is about getting the money to their corporations instead of in the hands of their enemy's. And in those regards it is very sad that Maduro did such a shitty job running the country that this is a better alternative. Why do you think it's better for the wealth to go to US oligarchs rather than Maduro? As bad as you think Maduro is, I'm not sure even you accuse him of taking a larger share of the wealth than US oligarchs do to their own citizens, let alone non-white foreigners on valuable natural resources. Add on top of that it's US oligarchs in the era of Trump, so they are even more emboldened to ruthlessly exploit the Venezuelan people than the US typically does to countries where they (help) install an obsequious leader. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
On April 10 2019 02:04 GreenHorizons wrote: Why do you think it's better for the wealth to go to US oligarchs rather than Maduro? As bad as you think Maduro is, I'm not sure even you accuse him of taking a larger share of the wealth than US oligarchs do to their own citizens, let alone non-white foreigners on valuable natural resources. Add on top of that it's US oligarchs in the era of Trump, so they are even more emboldened to ruthlessly exploit the Venezuelan people than the US typically does to countries where they (help) install an obsequious leader. Because the people are leaving by the millions because they are starving to death. As bad as you think America is I believe Russia is worse. Also all that Guiado is calling for is free and fair elections their is no Guarantee he will win. Perhaps an ACTUAL socialist will emerge. Venezuela is far more of a corrupt narco state than it is a socialist one right now. And I'll take neo liberal over Narco any day of the week. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
On April 10 2019 02:12 JimmiC wrote: Because the people are leaving by the millions because they are starving to death. As bad as you think America is I believe Russia is worse. Also all that Guiado is calling for is free and fair elections their is no Guarantee he will win. Perhaps an ACTUAL socialist will emerge. Venezuela is far more of a corrupt narco state than it is a socialist one right now. And I'll take neo liberal over Narco any day of the week. I don't think that whole "millions are leaving because they are starving to death" holds up to scrutiny. Firstly Yemen is what that looks like, yet we don't see anything remotely like that coming out of Venezuela. Also worth noting the US as well as several European countries support the side starving and bombing the children there. So I'm skeptical this has anything to do with the humanitarian side for any of the decision makers involved. Particularly under Trump. "Free and fair elections" are what the leaders the US has installed around the world usually promise, they rarely if ever come though. It's unduly optimistic in my view to think it's going to go differently this time. Venezuela has been trending toward crony capitalism since Chavez's death so it's unlikely a "real socialist" in your view would win an election. It'd most likely be Maduro since despite significant opposition, he's still popular among those that oppose US empire and moving toward capitalism. Guaido was unknown before this and is seen as a US puppet by pretty much everyone, but there is a contingent of about 15%, last I checked, that support that because they are part of the ownership class of Venezuela. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
In an interview on Monday, Bolsonaro appeared to say that he might single-handedly decide if Brazil needs to join a potential US-led military incursion against the Maduro government. “What can Brazil do? Suppose there is a military invasion there [from the United States]. The decision will be mine, but I will listen to the National Defense Council and then the Parliament,” Bolsonaro pledged. Back in February, Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão flatly rejected the possibility of Brazil serving as a staging ground for a US invasion. Mourão argued that, for foreign troops to be stationed in Brazil, Bolsonaro would need to receive a green light from the National Congress, which at present is reluctant to back such a militaristic move. www.rt.com | ||
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JimmiC
Canada1959 Posts
On April 10 2019 02:24 GreenHorizons wrote: I don't think that whole "millions are leaving because they are starving to death" holds up to scrutiny. Firstly Yemen is what that looks like, yet we don't see anything remotely like that coming out of Venezuela. Also worth noting the US as well as several European countries support the side starving and bombing the children there. So I'm skeptical this has anything to do with the humanitarian side for any of the decision makers involved. Particularly under Trump. "Free and fair elections" are what the leaders the US has installed around the world usually promise, they rarely if ever come though. It's unduly optimistic in my view to think it's going to go differently this time. Venezuela has been trending toward crony capitalism since Chavez's death so it's unlikely a "real socialist" in your view would win an election. It'd most likely be Maduro since despite significant opposition, he's still popular among those that oppose US empire and moving toward capitalism. Guaido was unknown before this and is seen as a US puppet by pretty much everyone, but there is a contingent of about 15%, last I checked, that support that because they are part of the ownership class of Venezuela. And everything I have read says otherwise about the popularity. I Guaido wouldn't win, but in free and fair elections the popular well known opposition would be freed from jail or allowed to return to the country from either their exile or escaping jailing and torturing. To your first point. Why then are millions leaving? Or do you think that is all made up? If it's the later I think you are drinking some wild kool-aid. If it is the first I'd be interested in an alternative reason for the mass exodus. Also, glad your back and I appreciate the new tone. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States17641 Posts
On April 10 2019 05:08 JimmiC wrote: And everything I have read says otherwise about the popularity. I Guaido wouldn't win, but in free and fair elections the popular well known opposition would be freed from jail or allowed to return to the country from either their exile or escaping jailing and torturing. To your first point. Why then are millions leaving? Or do you think that is all made up? If it's the later I think you are drinking some wild kool-aid. If it is the first I'd be interested in an alternative reason for the mass exodus. Also, glad your back and I appreciate the new tone. I mean Guaido would be executed already in most countries, including the US. Same or at least jailed for other opposition members that coordinated with the US and other hostile foreign nations in an attempt to forcibly remove the President. So I'm not sure how a free and fair election can happen by your measure. As to people leaving Venezuela, there's a long list of reasons like any other country. It shares a lot of reasons with most of the South/Central American countries experiencing large amounts of emigration, summed up by "US interference". They're mainly leaving because Venezuela is a scary/tough place to be, particularly since Trump became president and they have the resources/health to be able to. Lots of people go shop at the black markets just across the border or will visit family in other countries until things settle down and so on. I'm sure some had some level of malnutrition, but so does 85% of the US so I'm skeptical it was a primary driver of the emigration or that it's being honestly represented in western media. | ||
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