On December 04 2023 17:06 WombaT wrote: Is this actually disputed territory in a complex sense with legitimate claims either side, or a Venezuelan territory grab? Profoundly ignorant on this particular topic.
This is a dispute from basically Spain vs the UK colonial BS.
The status of the territory is subject to the Geneva Agreement, which was signed by the United Kingdom, Venezuela and British Guiana on 17 February 1966. This treaty stipulates that the parties will agree to find a practical, peaceful and satisfactory solution to the dispute.[3] Should there be a stalemate, according to the treaty, the decision as to the means of settlement is to be referred to an "appropriate international organ" or, failing agreement on this point, to the Secretary-General of the United Nations.[3] The Secretary-General referred the entire matter to the International Court of Justice. On 18 December 2020, the ICJ accepted the case submitted by Guyana to settle the dispute.
Do not listen to GH, he has actually no clue, this just comes to his same analysis on every situation which is, what side is America on, ok that is the bad side. It is why his posts in the Ukraine thread are so cringy. Hopefully at some point we as a community can stop pretending he is more than an América is bad bot with a great vocabulary.
I do not know anything about the area until it came up in the news recently. I think that Maduro is a narco dictator and his other big money source is oil tells you most of what you need to know. He probably also needs a bunch of the supplies from that area as he has been sanctioned and he has been famous for not maintaining their wells since they nationalized them (massive corruption).
Here's some of the reading I've been doing, but it is probably best to do you own. Unless we have a poster who actually lives near there I would shocked if anyone else actually had any expertise. If you come across any good sources in your hunts please share!
Seems kind of odd that we haven't really heard from any of the neighboring countries like say Colombia etc. About any of this and who they support etc. I mean I know Brazil is sending its military to the border simply because of political security not only for the region but for Lula as well. His political survival depends on it as well.
On December 05 2023 00:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Seems kind of odd that we haven't really heard from any of the neighboring countries like say Colombia etc. About any of this and who they support etc. I mean I know Brazil is sending its military to the border simply because of political security not only for the region but for Lula as well. His political survival depends on it as well.
My guess is that places other than Brazil think Brazil will handle it. I hope this is just Maduro strongman sabre rattling. Last thing the world needs is another live war.
On December 05 2023 00:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Seems kind of odd that we haven't really heard from any of the neighboring countries like say Colombia etc. About any of this and who they support etc. I mean I know Brazil is sending its military to the border simply because of political security not only for the region but for Lula as well. His political survival depends on it as well.
The brazillian government has made appeals for peaceful resolution and sent Celso Amorim 10 days ago to discuss. Celso Amorim was the minister of foreign affair for most (all?) of Lula's first two mandates, so he's sort of a figurehead for brazillian international relations.
Brazil gains nothing from actively taking a side and doing something outside of diplomacy in what is essencially electoral bluster from Maduro.
On 30 November, Brazilian Minister of Defense José Múcio announced that the Brazilian Army would send 60 troops to Pacaraima to reinforce security at the border crossing with Venezuela, seeking to impede a potential Venezuelan crossing into Guyana from Brazilian territory.
So either Lula/Brazil doesn't want to try and trigger an invasion by strengthening their side of the border, even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court or opinion on the matter. Or they are acting like a deer in the headlights. Or worse, they want the US to act so they can be the good cop.
On December 05 2023 02:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: According to Wikipedia Brazil has only sent 60 soldiers to the border... that will surely send some strong signals.
On 30 November, Brazilian Minister of Defense José Múcio announced that the Brazilian Army would send 60 troops to Pacaraima to reinforce security at the border crossing with Venezuela, seeking to impede a potential Venezuelan crossing into Guyana from Brazilian territory.
So either Lula/Brazil doesn't want to try and trigger an invasion by strengthening their side of the border, even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court or opinion on the matter. Or they are acting like a deer in the headlights. Or worse, they want the US to act so they can be the good cop.
60 soldiers are there to prevent Brazillian territory from being violated, not for preventing a conflict. Not by literally stopping people from crossing mind you (which is in practical terms impossible anyway because it's a large and porous border and it's the amazon) but by killing and dying to venezuelan soldiers if they cross and thus force a diplomatic crisis.
Your previous statement was that you were surprised from not having heard from neighboring countries, which is on you for not knowing that neighboring countries were indeed engaging in diplomatic talks. Perhaps what you meant that you were surprised there were no large military maneuvers from neighboring countries in response to this, in which case, no shit. Brazil gains nothing from moving outside of diplomacy in what is essencially electoral bluster from Maduro.
Also, "even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court" is a vague statement. Yes, the brazillian government didn't expect Venezuela accept the World Court ruling (no one with half a brain cell would have expected the referendum not to pass). This does not mean the brazillian government expects Venezuela to act on it. In fact, brazillian government expectation is that the chance of military initiative from Venezuela is remote.
On December 05 2023 02:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: According to Wikipedia Brazil has only sent 60 soldiers to the border... that will surely send some strong signals.
On 30 November, Brazilian Minister of Defense José Múcio announced that the Brazilian Army would send 60 troops to Pacaraima to reinforce security at the border crossing with Venezuela, seeking to impede a potential Venezuelan crossing into Guyana from Brazilian territory.
So either Lula/Brazil doesn't want to try and trigger an invasion by strengthening their side of the border, even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court or opinion on the matter. Or they are acting like a deer in the headlights. Or worse, they want the US to act so they can be the good cop.
60 soldiers are there to prevent Brazillian territory from being violated, not for preventing a conflict. Not by literally stopping people from crossing mind you (which is in practical terms impossible anyway because it's a large and porous border and it's the amazon) but by killing and dying to venezuelan soldiers if they cross and thus force a diplomatic crisis.
Your previous statement was that you were surprised from not having heard from neighboring countries, which is on you for not knowing that neighboring countries were indeed engaging in diplomatic talks. Perhaps what you meant that you were surprised there were no large military maneuvers from neighboring countries in response to this, in which case, no shit. Brazil gains nothing from moving outside of diplomacy in what is essencially electoral bluster from Maduro.
Also, "even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court" is a vague statement. Yes, the brazillian government didn't expect Venezuela accept the World Court ruling (no one with half a brain cell would have expected the referendum not to pass). This does not mean the brazillian government expects Venezuela to act on it. Brazillian. In fact, brazillian government expectation is that the chance of military initiative from Venezuela is a remote.
Not that you are wrong, but didn’t the whole world think that of Russia?
On December 05 2023 02:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: According to Wikipedia Brazil has only sent 60 soldiers to the border... that will surely send some strong signals.
On 30 November, Brazilian Minister of Defense José Múcio announced that the Brazilian Army would send 60 troops to Pacaraima to reinforce security at the border crossing with Venezuela, seeking to impede a potential Venezuelan crossing into Guyana from Brazilian territory.
So either Lula/Brazil doesn't want to try and trigger an invasion by strengthening their side of the border, even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court or opinion on the matter. Or they are acting like a deer in the headlights. Or worse, they want the US to act so they can be the good cop.
60 soldiers are there to prevent Brazillian territory from being violated, not for preventing a conflict. Not by literally stopping people from crossing mind you (which is in practical terms impossible anyway because it's a large and porous border and it's the amazon) but by killing and dying to venezuelan soldiers if they cross and thus force a diplomatic crisis.
Your previous statement was that you were surprised from not having heard from neighboring countries, which is on you for not knowing that neighboring countries were indeed engaging in diplomatic talks. Perhaps what you meant that you were surprised there were no large military maneuvers from neighboring countries in response to this, in which case, no shit. Brazil gains nothing from moving outside of diplomacy in what is essencially electoral bluster from Maduro.
Also, "even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court" is a vague statement. Yes, the brazillian government didn't expect Venezuela accept the World Court ruling (no one with half a brain cell would have expected the referendum not to pass). This does not mean the brazillian government expects Venezuela to act on it. Brazillian. In fact, brazillian government expectation is that the chance of military initiative from Venezuela is a remote.
Not that you are wrong, but didn’t the whole world think that of Russia?
People have been wrong in the past in many different ways about impending wars, yes, and also about expecting a war and it not happening. I don't think that knowing it can happen with a non-zero chance ("remote chance" said by brazillian government oficials) justifies preemptive non-diplomatic action in the form of troop movement from third parties that Stealth is surprised is not happening.
On December 05 2023 02:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: According to Wikipedia Brazil has only sent 60 soldiers to the border... that will surely send some strong signals.
On 30 November, Brazilian Minister of Defense José Múcio announced that the Brazilian Army would send 60 troops to Pacaraima to reinforce security at the border crossing with Venezuela, seeking to impede a potential Venezuelan crossing into Guyana from Brazilian territory.
So either Lula/Brazil doesn't want to try and trigger an invasion by strengthening their side of the border, even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court or opinion on the matter. Or they are acting like a deer in the headlights. Or worse, they want the US to act so they can be the good cop.
60 soldiers are there to prevent Brazillian territory from being violated, not for preventing a conflict. Not by literally stopping people from crossing mind you (which is in practical terms impossible anyway because it's a large and porous border and it's the amazon) but by killing and dying to venezuelan soldiers if they cross and thus force a diplomatic crisis.
Your previous statement was that you were surprised from not having heard from neighboring countries, which is on you for not knowing that neighboring countries were indeed engaging in diplomatic talks. Perhaps what you meant that you were surprised there were no large military maneuvers from neighboring countries in response to this, in which case, no shit. Brazil gains nothing from moving outside of diplomacy in what is essencially electoral bluster from Maduro.
Also, "even though they have said they don't believe Venezuela will respect the World Court" is a vague statement. Yes, the brazillian government didn't expect Venezuela accept the World Court ruling (no one with half a brain cell would have expected the referendum not to pass). This does not mean the brazillian government expects Venezuela to act on it. Brazillian. In fact, brazillian government expectation is that the chance of military initiative from Venezuela is a remote.
Not that you are wrong, but didn’t the whole world think that of Russia?
People have been wrong in the past in many different ways about impending wars, yes, and also about expecting a war and it not happening. I don't think that knowing it can happen with a non-zero chance ("remote chance" said by brazillian government oficials) justifies preemptive non-diplomatic action in the form of troop movement from third parties that Stealth is surprised is not happening.
That’s fair, my concern is really that Maduro is deep in bed with Putin and this is basically his playbook, including the sham referendum.
On December 04 2023 17:06 WombaT wrote: Is this actually disputed territory in a complex sense with legitimate claims either side, or a Venezuelan territory grab? Profoundly ignorant on this particular topic.
What's happening is a bit complex overall, but Venezuela's claim seems pretty unfavorably thin in my cursory understanding.
I'm not particularly well researched on it, but I found this thread and the one linked in the tweet quite informative and a useful place to start learning more.
I tend to agree with the analysis that it's an overreach by Venezuela and will be/is getting exploited as a rationalization for further ingratiation by the Guyanese government to the US DoD/US Oil interests (namely Exxon) undermining popular opposition efforts that preceded this latest iteration of this dispute.
Thanks to you and others for responding, will delve into learning a bit more about this corner of the globe
Brazil is now sending an additional soldiers that will increase the number to 600.
Also the both sides lol
BRASILIA, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Brazil's military is reinforcing its northern border due to rising tensions between its neighbors Venezuela and Guyana over Venezuela's claim to the Esequibo region, the Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday.
The Brazilian army is moving armored vehicles and more troops to Boa Vista, the capital of Roraima state that borders both Venezuela and Guyana after Venezuelans voted in a referendum on Sunday to approve the annexation of the Esequibo.
The four-wheel drive Guaicuru armored vehicles will join an upgraded 18th Mechanized Cavalry Regiment whose force will increase to 600 soldiers to improve security along the border and intensify surveillance to avoid surprises, a military source told Reuters.
"Neither side will be able to take advantage of our territory," the army officer said.
At issue is a 160,000-square km (61,776 square-mile) region more than twice the size of Ireland that is mostly thick jungle. Venezuela reactivated its claim over the Esequibo in recent years after the discovery of offshore oil and gas.
Brazil's top diplomat for Latin America and the Caribbean, Gisela Padovan, said the main road connection between Venezuela and Guyana is through Brazilian territory due the inaccessible terrain of the Esequibo, but its use in any military action would not be accepted by her country.
"We are following the situation with concern. I do not believe it will come to an armed conflict," she said in an interview on Monday in which she urged a peaceful resolution.
In Sunday's referendum, Venezuelan voters rejected the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice over their country's territorial dispute with Guyana and supported the creation of a new Venezuelan state in the potentially oil-rich Esequibo region.
The court on Friday prohibited Venezuela from taking any action that would alter the status quo in the area, but President Nicolas Maduro's leftist government went ahead with the referendum.
Brazil did not ask Venezuela to cancel the vote, but President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government is expected to criticize the stepped up Venezuelan campaign for the Esequibo.
The region has been in dispute since the 19th century, when Guyana was a British colony. An international tribunal in Paris in 1899 settled the issue, but Venezuela says the ruling was rigged.
Maduro mobilizes the army and announces annexation of Essequibo Via a law announced Tuesday, Venezuela will create a new province or state in the disputed territory, having already appointed a single provisional authority: Major-General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello
No surprise here, the US backs Guyana. I also still think Lula/Brazil is hoping and praying that Venezuela is just all bluster and doesn't do anything. The US has also started flight operations over Guyana.
The United States says it is fully backing Guyana against Venezuela’s threat to annex its oil-rich western territory as tensions soar over their border dispute.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s position that Guyana has full sovereignty over its 159,500sq km (61,600sq-mile) Essequibo region, in a call with Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali late on Wednesday.
During the call, Blinken also urged for a peaceful resolution to the crisis, the US State Department said.
Venezuelans on Sunday voted overwhelmingly to annex oil-rich Essequibo, which their government claims forms a natural part of Venezuelan territory and was unfairly delegated to Guyana more than a century ago.
“We would like the United Nations Security Council to issue a very strong statement to Venezuela in relation to Venezuela breaching the order of the ICJ [International Court of Justice] – an order that can be enforceable,” Ali told Al Jazeera in an interview.
“And we would like to see the full commitment of the United Nations Security Council to ensure that they do everything to have this region remain a region of peace and stability,” he added.
Sunday’s vote was held despite the ICJ warning Venezuela against “taking any action” that could alter the region’s status quo.
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday called for a bill to create a “Guyana Esequiba” province and ordered Venezuelan companies to prepare to enter the territory to explore for fossil fuels and minerals “immediately”.
Guyana’s president has said the country will do whatever it must to stave off the annexation threat, putting the armed forces on “alert”.
Guyana has also turned to regional allies for muscle, with Brazil sending troops to its northern border with Venezuela.
“We take this threat very seriously, and we have initiated a number of precautionary measures to ensure the peace and stability of this region,” Ali said on Wednesday.
“Should Venezuela proceed to act in this reckless and adventurous manner, the region will have to respond,” he said. “And that is what we’re building. We’re building a regional response.”
But even as tensions simmer, Guyana and Venezuela have agreed to “keep communication channels open”, the Caracas government said.
Longstanding dispute
Venezuela has for decades laid claim to Essequibo, claiming that the Essequibo River to the region’s east forms a natural border and has historically been recognised as such.
However, Guyana, of which Essequibo makes up more than two-thirds and hosts 125,000 of its 800,000 citizens, has administered the territory since the frontiers were determined by an arbitration panel in 1899.
The area is located in the heart of the Guiana Shield, a geographical region in the northeast of South America and one of the four last pristine tropical forests in the world mined with natural and mineral resources, including large reserves of gold, copper, diamond, iron and aluminium among others.
The region also has the world’s biggest reserves of crude oil per capita. Just last month, Guyana announced a “significant” new oil discovery, adding to estimated reserves of at least 10 billion barrels – more than Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates.
With these resources, the country is set to surpass the oil production of Venezuela, and by 2025, according to projections, the country is on track to become the world’s largest per-capita crude producer.
Venezuela’s interest in the territory piqued in 2015 when ExxonMobil announced it had found oil in commercial quantities off the Essequibo coast.
Nothing says libertarian like putting in a bunch of new government rules!
Protecting law abiding citizens from criminal-paid rioters, is actually quite libertarian. The main reason to exist of the state, from a libertarian POV, is to provide security and protect individuals fundamental rights from the agression of others.
"Piqueteros" are well known to anyone from latin america. Cracking on this organized shock troops is extremely popular within Argentina outside twitter left influencers.
It’s really not especially libertarian for state apparatus to crack the whip at various forms of protest and civil dissent. Granted many libertarians aren’t especially libertarian so there is that.
I mean I could see an argument on certain disruptive protests but that whole suite?
Did you not watch the videos? This people routinely block streets, loot business and atack the police. They act coordinated and are politically organized. They even forced a previous president to resign. A significant amount of them has a criminal record and even pending warrants.
No one is cracking on "protest and civil dissent".
On December 16 2023 09:11 GoTuNk! wrote: Did you not watch the videos? This people routinely block streets, loot business and atack the police. They act coordinated and are politically organized. They even forced a previous president to resign. A significant amount of them has a criminal record and even pending warrants.
No one is cracking on "protest and civil dissent".
I don’t speak Spanish, nor am I particularly au fait with Argentine politics. Given a lack of familiarity I was really talking more generally. Here to learn really, reading up on sources in English.
It strikes me that Milei is utilising the instruments of state to pursue an ostensibly libertarian economic policy that many are rather against, and wielding the instruments of state to suppress dissent from those opposed.
There may be pragmatic justification to do so, but it doesn’t strike me as a particularly libertarian approach to governance. Seems to very much be seeking the market liberalisation without the social.
On December 16 2023 09:11 GoTuNk! wrote: Did you not watch the videos? This people routinely block streets, loot business and atack the police. They act coordinated and are politically organized. They even forced a previous president to resign. A significant amount of them has a criminal record and even pending warrants.
No one is cracking on "protest and civil dissent".
Would you take issue with someone cracking down on protest and civil dissent?