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On September 18 2018 22:07 Plansix wrote:
From the news this morning on NPR there seems to be a real concern among the FBI and Justice department that the documents will put some sources at risk and caused others to stop providing the US with information. It does not sound anyone beyond Trump and his fan club in the House think this is a good idea.
Seeing as those sources are providing intel that could possibly maybe potentially bring Trump down, wouldn't that be in Trump's best interest? (and the USA be damned)
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On September 18 2018 22:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2018 22:07 Plansix wrote:
From the news this morning on NPR there seems to be a real concern among the FBI and Justice department that the documents will put some sources at risk and caused others to stop providing the US with information. It does not sound anyone beyond Trump and his fan club in the House think this is a good idea. Seeing as those sources are providing intel that could possibly maybe potentially bring Trump down, wouldn't that be in Trump's best interest? (and the USA be damned)
I assume him and his fan club haven’t really thought about that or just assume that the FBI is lying to protect itself as an agent of the Obama administration. But long term this is going to have real damage on our ability to gather information abroad. Few sources are going to give any agency information if they could be outed at any time by a grumpy President who couldn’t give a shit.
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On September 18 2018 22:50 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2018 22:46 Acrofales wrote:On September 18 2018 22:07 Plansix wrote:
From the news this morning on NPR there seems to be a real concern among the FBI and Justice department that the documents will put some sources at risk and caused others to stop providing the US with information. It does not sound anyone beyond Trump and his fan club in the House think this is a good idea. Seeing as those sources are providing intel that could possibly maybe potentially bring Trump down, wouldn't that be in Trump's best interest? (and the USA be damned) I assume him and his fan club haven’t really thought about that or just assume that the FBI is lying to protect itself as an agent of the Obama administration. But long term this is going to have real damage on our ability to gather information abroad. Few sources are going to give any agency information if they could be outed at any time by a grumpy President who couldn’t give a shit.
Maybe I wasn't clear. But I was trying to say that it is an added benefit to Trump that declassifying this info might burn those sources. Sources who may otherwise have caused him (personally) harm. Nothing in Trump's behaviour has indicated that he gives a rat's ass about America or its ability to gather intel on its enemies, at least not when his own self-interest gets in the way of that.
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is there anything to be understood from Trumps tariff announcement and the relatively good day on the stock market? why didn’t the market tank? has the collective will of the industry finally hardened itself from the relative insanity that is the current administration? are these just impossible questions open only to ones own interpretation?
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The market was chugging along acting like nothing was wrong right up until the complete implosion of the subprime market back in 2007-2008. The banks were calling Congress as they were pushing through TARP telling them that it was all fine and that all the experts and Congress had it wrong.
That entire industry isn’t that great as assessing catastrophic collapse. I would say they never have been very good at it throughout history. They just put on a good show as masters of market. When the tariffs finally impact the market, they will be as surprised as anyone else.
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And those that see it coming will pretend not to while positioning themselves to make money off of it.
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China only dishing out $60B (feels funny to say that, but here we are) of tariffs is interesting to me. It is hard to see this as anything other than bending the knee. Is this China taking one for the team? If you can just blow Trump a little bit, he backs off and everyone is happy? Or did China legitimately run out of steam? Did Trump shatter China's poker face and show that they have their limits? Is their fragility being put on display by finally having someone willing to give themselves a concussion by headbutting someone?
It is possible that China knows Trump just needs to feel like he beat them into submission and that he would then move on to people who are being more combative with him. Whenever someone bends the knee, such as Ted Cruz, congrats, you are now on team Trump! But that bending of the knee is MANDATORY.
So to me, either China legitimately ran out of steam and is risking their whole country imploding by escalating the $200B in tariffs from Trump, or they have realized China would benefit from Trump walking away from this feeling like a winner. By doing so, they risk appearing weak and easily manipulated. But they also potentially end up coming out way ahead by just avoiding the trade war altogether.
In some ways, these tariffs may end up serving as some form of sanctions against China. Once China ends the trade war with a $60B retaliation to $200B, does that not mean the US can dangle those tariffs over China for other things?
"Hey shitbags, stop letting rocket man be an ass and pull him in or we won't get rid of tariffs" comes to mind. If China is faced with either political collapse or keeping NK as a proxy, they will likely keep the boat afloat and forget about the military buffer provided by NK. But what do I know. I just think this $60B is very interesting by China.
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Oh boy, this clip is some easy pickings. Just put this over some scary music and turn the colors black and white and you have easy peazy ad for October. Cue the "but it was a jokkkkkkeee" crying. Here is a funny, but not quite hah-hah funny clip of Kavanaugh saying:
"What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep. That's been a good thing for all of us"
+ Show Spoiler +
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On September 19 2018 02:59 brian wrote:
is there anything to be understood from Trumps tariff announcement and the relatively good day on the stock market? why didn’t the market tank? has the collective will of the industry finally hardened itself from the relative insanity that is the current administration? are these just impossible questions open only to ones own interpretation?
You're over analyzing these singular events. Events like ebola, trump on election night, brexit are all just noise and as an investor with a long time view, it makes no difference because you keep investing regardless of the news.
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short term markets can be really weird. Could also be driven by some unrelated news in some sector. I don't think there's a ton of value in reading too much into it.
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i understand how the market works, and i also understand a typical short term dip would’ve been expected during a shake up like tariffs, which prompted the question. i expected to see a negative reaction today and didn’t. i feel like the normal ‘don’t time a market’ still doesn’t really feel like a satisfied answer in this instance, but maybe it is.
i was wondering if there was anything to be learned from it, or if there was any deeper meaning to be intuited. i would’ve bet some money on seeing red today, even if it did bounce back as quickly as tomorrow. i’m glad i didn’t i guess.
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The lesson is to keep investing and hodl regardless of your intuition
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because trump is so capricious, the markets have largely taken the wait and see view and don't really move until the hard numbers of the impact come out. in the interim, many companies are playing it safe and delaying large projects/ hirings until the situation is less volatile.
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There is also the fact that everything Trump is doing could be undone by the next administration or even a grumpy US congress. They are operating under the idea that the trade war will end when Trump leaves.
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Ford apparently still hasn't accepted the Senate's offer to testify next Monday. I know she must hate the attention and backlash, but the cat is already out of the bag. Republicans are already starting to twist the delay this as "telling." If she doesn't show up then her story will be disregarded and Kavanaugh immediately voted in. She needs to testify.
While on the topic I want to share this video of Kavanaugh talking about his time in high school. He says "What happens at Georgetown Prep stays at Georgetown Prep." Regardless of context that line isnt going to play well next Monday. Judge admitted he and Kavanaugh were basically drunk all the time.
Video:
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On September 19 2018 06:58 On_Slaught wrote:
While on the topic I want to share this video of Kavanaugh talking about his time in high school. He says "What happens at Georgetown Prep stays at Georgetown Prep." Regardless of context that line isnt going to play well next Monday. Judge admitted he and Kavanaugh were basically drunk all the time.
For the benefit of foreign contributors here, allow me to explain how misleading this is.
The phrase "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" is a very commonly known phrase in American culture (it's used in commercials), and does not at all imply sexual assault, but instead usually implies some debauchery (think of "The Hangover" movie). It is not at all uncommon for people to substitute "Vegas" for whatever other favorite area (or party spot) some group of people know.
It often means something close to "We got drunk and engaged in some embarrassing behavior" (alcohol is not implicit, but is commonly associated with the phrase), and pretty much never means "We raped a bunch of women and let's make sure we never tell anybody."
For Kavanaugh to have said that about Georgetown Prep is not demonstrable of anything relating to the current allegations against him and you should not expect for this to be brought up in a Senate hearing.
Edit: Just learned that Elizabeth Warren already tweeted about this. Also, the accuser apparently won't go to testify in front of the Senate. I would not have expected these things to happen. The optics of these developments do not seem good.
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I don’t think it’s misleading at all. The history of “What happens on tour, stays on tour” is absolutely tied with groups of men being garbage people and it isn’t even isolated to US culture. It has long been tied to sports players partaking in drug binges and sexual debauchery like running trains on women, something our rugby players seem to enjoy.
The difference is that people in 2018 aren’t seeing movies in the vein of The Hangover, Entourage, Sex and the City and Rough Night in a positive light anymore. No, people who make the “what happens, stays in” comment are actually garbage.
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On September 19 2018 09:48 Womwomwom wrote:
I don’t think it’s misleading at all. The history of “What happens on tour, stays on tour” is absolutely tied with groups of men being garbage people and it isn’t even isolated to US culture. It has long been tied to sports players partaking in drug binges and sexual debauchery like running trains on women, something our rugby players seem to enjoy.
The difference is that people in 2018 aren’t seeing movies in the vein of The Hangover, Entourage, Sex and the City and Rough Night in a positive light anymore. No, people who make the “what happens, stays in” comment are actually garbage.
It's like the classic "boys will be boys". It abdicates responsibility and enables shitty behavior.
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Fords refusal to come testify under oath until the FBI looks into it more does not look good. This sort of case isn’t even something the FBI would investigate normally right? And havent they already basically said there’s nothing for them to investigate?
My money is back on Thursday’s vote proceeding as scheduled unless something major changes tomorrow.
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EPT
