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https://apnews.com/article/kilmar-abrego-garcia-deportation-smuggling-27c3a6f7a1a0700d9a33209e852c06a6
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Kilmar Abrego Garcia is expected to be released from jail in Tennessee on Wednesday, only to be taken into immigration custody.
The Salvadoran national whose mistaken deportation became a flashpoint in the fight over President Donald Trump’s immigration policies has been in jail since he was returned to the U.S. on June 7, facing two counts of human smuggling.
On Sunday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Barbara Holmes ruled that Abrego Garcia does not have to remain in jail ahead of that trial. On Wednesday afternoon, she will set his conditions of release and allow him to go, according to her order. However, his defense attorneys and prosecutors have said they expect him to be taken into custody by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as soon as he is released on the criminal charges.
Abrego Garcia’s wife, Jennifer Vasquez Sura, said during a news conference before Wednesday’s scheduled court hearing that it’s been 106 days since he “was abducted by the Trump administration and separated from our family.” She noted that he has missed family birthdays, graduations and Father’s Day, while “today he misses our wedding anniversary.”
Vasquez Sura said their love, their faith in God and an abundance of community support have helped them persevere.
Why do I get the feeling Trump's goons are gonna try a little too hard to end all this and make a big error
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United States42516 Posts
On June 26 2025 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2025 04:43 Simberto wrote:On June 26 2025 03:57 Yurie wrote:
Isn't a stock price an indicator of how valuable that stock is. Not how valuable that company is?
Basically, how much will the company grow and what dividends are they paying out.
An extreme example would be a company that is entrenched in its market area with no real expansion opportunities and paying 0 dividends while 99% of voting stock is held outside the market. That company generates no value to people owning the stock, so value would be close to 0 regardless of company profit/loss. A stock price is an indicator for what people are willing to pay for that stock. That doesn't have to be linked to anything in reality. Take Tesla for example. Its stock price was basically completely decoupled from any real values, and only based on Musk hype for a long time. Or (not a stock, but a similar principle) bitcoin. Does nothing useful, no fundamental values behind it, still people are willing to pay lots of money for it. Which makes it reasonable for other people to buy it just because they hope that the first group will give them even more money for it in the future. The idea that stock priced are linked to any real value of the company is born out of the idea that all of the people who trade stocks are rational actors who act based on clear information. But, as it turns out, that is not actually how a lot of humans work. And if enough irrational actors are involved in the trade of some stock, its price can completely decouple from the company. And even worse, rational actors might also get involved because they think they can predict the behaviour of the irrational actors and make money from that. So now we have a stock price based on what irrational actors think based on bad information, and on what rational actors think irrational actors will think. And none of them base their value estimate on any real world information about the company, it is all based on vibes. That is not what happens with every stock, but it is a thing that can happen to stocks, and it should make you very cautious about assuming that the stock price of a company must be linked to its actual value or what it does. Great explanation! There's a well-known example from a few years ago with GameStop. It got... a little bit out of hand. The tl;dr version is that short squeezers were faced with a huge potential loss due to a sudden influx of new buyers - meaning the squeezers literally couldn't sell their shares, putting them in a death spiral (the clock was ticking). So to avoid further losses they used their connections to halt new purchases (probably illegal? I'm not sure). It turned into a tug-of-war of sorts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze
You're all over the place with this in a way that shows a complete lack of basic knowledge of the subject.
You're using short squeezers when you mean shorters. They're two different and adversarial parties but you're calling both parties short squeezers. The shorters (hedge funds) were the ones betting against Gamestop, they sold it short which means they borrowed and then sold shares that they didn't own with the intent to buy back those shares at a lower price later and repay the shares that they had borrowed.
The influx of the new buyers are the short squeezers. They identified that the only way that the shorters had of closing out their short position was buying shares down the line, and that they would have to buy them at any price. Therefore they "squeezed" the shorters by driving up the price.
When you say that the squeezers couldn't sell their shares what you mean is that the shorters (who were being squeezed by the buyers) couldn't buy their shares. You have both the parties backwards and the buy/sell backwards.
Let's say the short sellers sell 1,000 shares at a price of $5/share for $5,000 cash. They don't have 1,000 shares so they borrow 1,000 shares from a broker. Their plan is to wait for the price to drop to $4/share, buy 1,000 shares for $4,000 cash, repay the broker the 1,000 shares they borrowed, and then net a tidy $1,000 profit.
The problem for the shorters is that they can't close out their position without buying. So the squeezers buy every share and start pushing the price up. There is no limit to the losses for the shorter here because they don't owe money, they owe 1,000 shares, and the higher the shares go the higher the losses go. No cap. Let's say it goes to $10/share. The broker then calls the shorters up and says "you've got a paper loss of $5,000 here, I'm going to need you to close out this position ASAP" and the shorters are then forced to buy it at $10/share today, even if the price spike is temporary. That's what is meant by a squeeze.
The problem that Robinhood ran into is that there are settlement delays and Robinhood sucks as a broker. Share trades aren't actually closed when they're closed, they're closed a few days later at the agreed price because the actual back end process for clearing is archaic. However a certain percentage don't actually go through after a few days because someone fucked up and in those situations the broker is on the hook for it. That means that the broker has to place collateral with the clearing houses. The collateral is determined by the volatility of the underlying stocks being traded, the kinds of traders, the kinds of trades being made and so forth.
Normally you only need a tiny fraction of the daily trades in collateral because the vast majority of trades go through and even the ones that don't go through aren't huge losses. If Robinhood tells the clearing house that they have a seller for a stock at $10 and the trade falls through then Robinhood are obliged to deliver that stock 3 days later but worst case scenario they can probably just buy it on the open market for somewhere in the $9.90 - $10.10 range, take the $10, deliver the stock, and only be out $0.10. So for a non volatile stock the price in 3 days will be roughly the price agreed. Let's say that there's a is a 1% non fulfillment risk and a 1% volatility risk, you can secure sales of $10,000 of shares with $1 of collateral, a 10,000:1 ratio.
Now let's say that your user base is retail traders, you're offering to prefund their accounts before their deposit into your app even clears, and they're exclusively trading Gamestop which went from $100 to $400 overnight. We'll set the non fulfillment risk at 20% and the volatility risk at 400%. You can secure sales of $10,000 of shares with $8,000 of collateral, a 5:4 ratio.
The collateral algorithm did exactly what it was designed to do and told Gamestop to come up with tens of billions in collateral. Gamestop failed to do so and after some panicked phone calls they were partially kicked out of the system. They negotiated to only be kicked out on high volatility stocks though.
That's why some more established brokers like Fidelity continued to trade Gamestop throughout. They had a much more stable user base, much more collateral placed with the clearing houses, and Gamestop made up a much smaller part of their daily trades. It wasn't any kind of secret plan, it was the inevitable and predictable outcome of the Robinhood business model.
I actually happen to know quite a lot about the Gamestop thing because I picked up 3,300 shares in mid July 2020, about 3 months before the mania started, at about $4.10/share.
![[image loading]](https://tl.net/staff/KwarK/gamestop.png)
In a Roth IRA naturally so 100% exempt from capital gains tax. They went to $450, though I sold before then.
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On June 26 2025 05:33 Mohdoo wrote:https://apnews.com/article/kilmar-abrego-garcia-deportation-smuggling-27c3a6f7a1a0700d9a33209e852c06a6Show nested quote +NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Kilmar Abrego Garcia is expected to be released from jail in Tennessee on Wednesday, only to be taken into immigration custody.
The Salvadoran national whose mistaken deportation became a flashpoint in the fight over President Donald Trump’s immigration policies has been in jail since he was returned to the U.S. on June 7, facing two counts of human smuggling.
On Sunday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Barbara Holmes ruled that Abrego Garcia does not have to remain in jail ahead of that trial. On Wednesday afternoon, she will set his conditions of release and allow him to go, according to her order. However, his defense attorneys and prosecutors have said they expect him to be taken into custody by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as soon as he is released on the criminal charges.
Abrego Garcia’s wife, Jennifer Vasquez Sura, said during a news conference before Wednesday’s scheduled court hearing that it’s been 106 days since he “was abducted by the Trump administration and separated from our family.” She noted that he has missed family birthdays, graduations and Father’s Day, while “today he misses our wedding anniversary.”
Vasquez Sura said their love, their faith in God and an abundance of community support have helped them persevere. Why do I get the feeling Trump's goons are gonna try a little too hard to end all this and make a big error
The nightmare never ends for Kilmar Abrego Garcia, holy cow.
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Northern Ireland24979 Posts
On June 26 2025 04:43 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2025 03:57 Yurie wrote:
Isn't a stock price an indicator of how valuable that stock is. Not how valuable that company is?
Basically, how much will the company grow and what dividends are they paying out.
An extreme example would be a company that is entrenched in its market area with no real expansion opportunities and paying 0 dividends while 99% of voting stock is held outside the market. That company generates no value to people owning the stock, so value would be close to 0 regardless of company profit/loss. A stock price is an indicator for what people are willing to pay for that stock. That doesn't have to be linked to anything in reality. Take Tesla for example. Its stock price was basically completely decoupled from any real values, and only based on Musk hype for a long time. Or (not a stock, but a similar principle) bitcoin. Does nothing useful, no fundamental values behind it, still people are willing to pay lots of money for it. Which makes it reasonable for other people to buy it just because they hope that the first group will give them even more money for it in the future. The idea that stock priced are linked to any real value of the company is born out of the idea that all of the people who trade stocks are rational actors who act based on clear information. But, as it turns out, that is not actually how a lot of humans work. And if enough irrational actors are involved in the trade of some stock, its price can completely decouple from the company. And even worse, rational actors might also get involved because they think they can predict the behaviour of the irrational actors and make money from that. So now we have a stock price based on what irrational actors think based on bad information, and on what rational actors think irrational actors will think. And none of them base their value estimate on any real world information about the company, it is all based on vibes. That is not what happens with every stock, but it is a thing that can happen to stocks, and it should make you very cautious about assuming that the stock price of a company must be linked to its actual value or what it does.
Pretty much, very well said overall!
Also cheers Kwark for that breakdown, rather informative
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On June 26 2025 06:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2025 05:33 Mohdoo wrote:https://apnews.com/article/kilmar-abrego-garcia-deportation-smuggling-27c3a6f7a1a0700d9a33209e852c06a6NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Kilmar Abrego Garcia is expected to be released from jail in Tennessee on Wednesday, only to be taken into immigration custody.
The Salvadoran national whose mistaken deportation became a flashpoint in the fight over President Donald Trump’s immigration policies has been in jail since he was returned to the U.S. on June 7, facing two counts of human smuggling.
On Sunday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Barbara Holmes ruled that Abrego Garcia does not have to remain in jail ahead of that trial. On Wednesday afternoon, she will set his conditions of release and allow him to go, according to her order. However, his defense attorneys and prosecutors have said they expect him to be taken into custody by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as soon as he is released on the criminal charges.
Abrego Garcia’s wife, Jennifer Vasquez Sura, said during a news conference before Wednesday’s scheduled court hearing that it’s been 106 days since he “was abducted by the Trump administration and separated from our family.” She noted that he has missed family birthdays, graduations and Father’s Day, while “today he misses our wedding anniversary.”
Vasquez Sura said their love, their faith in God and an abundance of community support have helped them persevere. Why do I get the feeling Trump's goons are gonna try a little too hard to end all this and make a big error The nightmare never ends for Kilmar Abrego Garcia, holy cow.
ICE potentially deporting someone before DOJ charges go to trial paints a clear picture of what is going on
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What an insane embarrassment this is. The judge is keeping Kilmar Abrego Garcia in jail to prevent ICE from deporting him before his trial.
I'm not even reacting to the ethics of his situation as a whole. ICE being unable to coordinate with the DOJ is so unbelievably embarrassing.
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ICE can't be trusted to not black bag people to a death camp the court tells them not to.
Apparently they're going to be building the first American concentration camp in the modern age in a Florida swamp to take advantage of the alligators.
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Comic book supervillains from 20 years ago that did half the stuff Republicans do nowadays were laughed at for being absurd exaggerations of real human beings.
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If nothing else, what about the DOJ case? If a DOJ case exists and trial is pending, the fact that ICE would not coordinate with them in any way shows extremely poor operational effectiveness.
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On June 26 2025 09:36 Mohdoo wrote:
If nothing else, what about the DOJ case? If a DOJ case exists and trial is pending, the fact that ICE would not coordinate with them in any way shows extremely poor operational effectiveness.
It does sorta feel like a primary reason the US isn't already a full blown fascist dictatorship is because of the rampant incompetence among the fascists.
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Historical fascists were generally pretty incompetent at everything other than controlling public opinion, so that tracks.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4en8djwyko
Well this is actually huge. a number is onboard to be at 5% and the rest will aim to increase (except Spain).
Either way the entire eurozone gotta spend more in military, so hardly a surprise. They need to spend to be more self sufficient and to catch-up.
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On June 26 2025 10:11 ETisME wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4en8djwykoWell this is actually huge. a number is onboard to be at 5% and the rest will aim to increase (except Spain). Either way the entire eurozone gotta spend more in military, so hardly a surprise. They need to spend to be more self sufficient and to catch-up.
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that this won't lead to the United States giving less money to its own military.
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EPT
