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On June 17 2025 10:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: On the stock market side of things, it appears that the S&P 500 has finally recovered from the last few months of Trump's presidency (since February). Trump "Hold my beer"
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On June 17 2025 10:02 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 08:38 Introvert wrote:On June 17 2025 04:38 Zambrah wrote:On June 17 2025 03:21 LightSpectra wrote: I have never found it helpful to frame Democratic voters as being overwhelmingly progressive and elected Democrats as being overwhelmingly liberal centrists. The reality seems to consistently be that about half the voters are centrists and a little over half of elected Democrats are centrists. There genuinely were a lot of people excited about Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden and afraid Bernie Sanders was too radical.
We can just pretend those people don't exist and blame the DNC/donors for everything wrong with Democrats, but why? We should take advantage of the fact that most Democrats are Vote Blue No Matter Who Centrists, and those sort of centrists are the ones who take issue with the more principle focused progressive/leftist voters. We can safely say that the Vote Blue No Matter Who types arent worth pandering too because theyve said time and time again that theyll just always vote for Democrats, so instead of trying to pander to them, Democrats should pander to the left, particularly the left's very popular policies. Stop appealing to Republicans, stop moderating and conservatizing, be bold, be optimistic, appeal to the popular policies that the left espouses, universal healthcare, stomping down big business, big tech, all of these abusive corporations, money in politics, fight for the working class, and get people excited for a brighter, better future instead of depressing people by compromising with fascists who your voting base vehemently understands as fascists. Dont pretend the world around people doesn't feel bad, that just "its not as bad as it could be" is inspiring, or makes people actually feel any better about their circumstances. Christ, if Democrats could just do anything but double down on their same-old same-old lost to Donald Trump's awful ass two times playbook. I'm going to repsond because I know there are other people who believe this, but it's a crazy thing to think after the last decade of elections. Twice Trump breaks the blue wall and along the way in 2025 sees a massive swing his way in from Hispanic moderate voters and younger voters in particular. yet the myth of "we just need to energize our base" won't die. The 2000s called and want their taking point back. Dems now win the single most consistent voting block(s): white college graduates and the older subset of Boomers. Meanwhile, Biden the "moderate" (as he was portrayed) actually won against Trump. Some people are stuck in the same political fantasy land Dems were in almost two decades ago. And saying that Dems moderated when voters viewed Harris as further to the left than Trump to the right is also going to need a better argument. Trump broke with Republican orthodoxy on key points and it's helped him every time, but somehow a hard left swing will do the job. Remember, when Kamala was waffling on her record in 2024 it's not thst her "moderating" lost her votes, it's that no one believed her. Yeah I’d broadly agree although, I’m not sure it’s a myth so much as an untested hypothetical. Strategy A may be the best strategy, but if you don’t try strategy B well, assuming it’s not insane on paper, how do you know? In the British context this was much of my frustration about Corbyn winning the Labour leadership contest and getting relentlessly sandbagged by the centre of the party. He’s got a mandate, play ball. It’s always the demand when it’s a centrist, give him a fair crack and if he fails, it’s a pretty big indicator that pivoting left doesn’t work in that context. The US context is different again of course. Trump broke with Republican orthodoxy every time because for a decent chunk of those voters it’s a cult. The Dems don’t have any comparable figure. While technically not a Dem anyway, Sanders has some leftist credentials and some popularity amongst that cohort. But he only has that so long as he maintains his bona fides. Integrity is his main appeal. I would agree that Harris, not a great candidate in terms of the intangibles. Maybe unfair, maybe not but perception counts for a lot and I never really liked her, she doesn’t feel especially sincere as a person. I think Hillary Clinton had that problem as well, but unlike Harris (your mileage may vary), I think Clinton at least had competent technocrat going for her. Was an odd campaign anyway, Democratic strategists and staffers are fucking stealing a living if you ask me. Even if we entirely sidestep the whole Biden competence question. I did not know Walz before the campaign. He got introduced, political disagreements aside I found him quite bloody likeable, and kinda the perfect guy for the job. Something of the everyman about him, moral without being too lecturing or pious, competent without seeming elitist. After a strong start he seemed to get shelved for, some reason? It felt like ‘hey here’s Tim’ and people quite liked the lad. Rather than run with that they decided, not to? For some reason. It’s fucking bizarre. Whole campaign was. Not even from my own personal politics, if we assume the winning ground is the centre with a little room leftwards, and the usual bullshit optics count, awful campaign. Stealing a living as I said. Really shouldn’t be that difficult. You can run from the centre if you want, just do it competently. Throw the left a bone or two, say idk Bernie Sanders will get a health gig, Elizabeth Warren some financial regulatory gig, things they’ve got bona fides on. Democratic strategy is fucking awful, to an almost inexplicable degree.
"Trump broke with Republican orthodox every time because for a decent chunk of those voters it’s a cult. The Dems don’t have any comparable figure. While technically not a Dem anyway, Sanders has some leftist credentials and some popularity amongst that cohort. But he only has that so long as he maintains his bona fides. Integrity is his main appeal."
Bolded - and thats what won him election?
Italic - disagree: they just didnt have anywhere else to go?
bolded italic - You contradicting yourself. Because Dems did have the comparable figure (in Bernie) and then they went "yeah f that", and now they squirm.
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Apparently the Pentagon Pizza index is indicating something’s going to happen. For anyone unfamiliar, the area around the Pentagon can be used to tell when things happen by looking at how active pizza places are. Gay bars too.
Probably not direct war with Iran but who fuckin knows what’s going to happen with G7 Trump bullshit and no one wanting to go to his lame ass birthday party.
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Trump keeps trying to rehabilitate Russia Donald Trump repeats call for Russia to be readmitted at G7 summit in Canada https:
Donald Trump has displayed his disdain for the collective western values supposedly championed by the G7 group of industrialised countries by again demanding that Russia be readmitted to the group. He also said the war in Ukraine would not have happened if Moscow had been kept in the club.
I'm not normally minded towards conspiracy theories, but his behaviour is so weird when it comes to Putin that I do wonder if Putin has something serious on Trump. He's not even doing this as part of a negotiation, he's, again, just giving away what Russia wants for free.
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Please attend my AA ritual or I might relapse based on the % of compliancy. I reaaaaaally need that threshold. Also, you will (eventually) be fired if you don't.
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On June 17 2025 11:54 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 10:47 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: On the stock market side of things, it appears that the S&P 500 has finally recovered from the last few months of Trump's presidency (since February). Trump "Hold my beer"
There is definitely a chance that he says/does other things that craters the stock market again.
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Thank goodness it was voluntary. I'm curious about this part:
"A brochure titled “Secretary of Defense Christian Prayer & Worship Service” featured the seal of the Department of Defense, suggesting that Hegseth and the government sponsored it, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, now a law professor, told CNN. That could be a breach of the First Amendment’s ban on the government promoting a religion."
Christian prayer groups are generally fine legally, but they probably shouldn't be using government seals to imply the government is sponsoring and promoting Christianity in particular, right?
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On June 17 2025 17:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank goodness it was voluntary. I'm curious about this part: "A brochure titled “Secretary of Defense Christian Prayer & Worship Service” featured the seal of the Department of Defense, suggesting that Hegseth and the government sponsored it, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, now a law professor, told CNN. That could be a breach of the First Amendment’s ban on the government promoting a religion." Christian prayer groups are generally fine legally, but they probably shouldn't be using government seals to imply the government is sponsoring and promoting Christianity in particular, right?
Out of curiosity,, did you see a documentary series on Netflix called 'The Family'? Its about what appears to be something similar to a secret society of people working under the guise of Christianity, who have got themselves into positions in Washington - not 'high up' positions, but positions of some influence. They believe that leaders are leaders because they are chosen by God and should have carte blanche to do whatever they want regardless of rules and laws, and they work very hard to make that happen. They aren't a secret among politicians in the US, everyone knows about it. The separation of church and state has always been very vague to me. Its very hard to say where it should apply and where it should not apply.
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On June 17 2025 17:58 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 17:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank goodness it was voluntary. I'm curious about this part: "A brochure titled “Secretary of Defense Christian Prayer & Worship Service” featured the seal of the Department of Defense, suggesting that Hegseth and the government sponsored it, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, now a law professor, told CNN. That could be a breach of the First Amendment’s ban on the government promoting a religion." Christian prayer groups are generally fine legally, but they probably shouldn't be using government seals to imply the government is sponsoring and promoting Christianity in particular, right? Out of curiosity,, did you see a documentary series on Netflix called 'The Family'? Its about what appears to be something similar to a secret society of people working under the guise of Christianity, who have got themselves into positions in Washington - not 'high up' positions, but positions of some influence. They believe that leaders are leaders because they are chosen by God and should have carte blanche to do whatever they want regardless of rules and laws, and they work very hard to make that happen. They aren't a secret among politicians in the US, everyone knows about it. The separation of church and state has always been very vague to me. Its very hard to say where it should apply and where it should not apply.
I haven't, but that sounds both interesting and scary!
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On June 17 2025 14:31 Zambrah wrote: Apparently the Pentagon Pizza index is indicating something’s going to happen. For anyone unfamiliar, the area around the Pentagon can be used to tell when things happen by looking at how active pizza places are. Gay bars too.
Probably not direct war with Iran but who fuckin knows what’s going to happen with G7 Trump bullshit and no one wanting to go to his lame ass birthday party.
KC-135 and other Sky-refuellers heading straight to middle east bases according to "the internet"
Looks like they are going to delete Teheran off the map - because they can.
Trump was spewing incoherent shit at G7 - again - but it very much looks like he is just out of mental capacity to process NoKings, shitty birthday parade, 6 actual top level politicians trying to talk some sense into him and wargames of friend Bibi.
Also they might have told him, that he would be much safer from iranian assassination attempts sitting in D.C.
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I don't buy that Iran tried to assassinate Trump. the US and Iran were not in an active conflict and if the US gets even a hint that Iran was behind it they have all the reason and justification to erase the country from the map.
No upside, existential downsides.
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Northern Ireland25468 Posts
On June 17 2025 15:09 EnDeR_ wrote:Trump keeps trying to rehabilitate Russia Donald Trump repeats call for Russia to be readmitted at G7 summit in Canada https:Show nested quote +Donald Trump has displayed his disdain for the collective western values supposedly championed by the G7 group of industrialised countries by again demanding that Russia be readmitted to the group. He also said the war in Ukraine would not have happened if Moscow had been kept in the club. I'm not normally minded towards conspiracy theories, but his behaviour is so weird when it comes to Putin that I do wonder if Putin has something serious on Trump. He's not even doing this as part of a negotiation, he's, again, just giving away what Russia wants for free. Yeah I find that too. He’ll just suggest things out of the blue, no pressure or occasion whatsoever that put him in these corners where he has to respond either.
Does this even appeal much to his broader base? One can certainly see a fair bit of pro-Russian sentiment these days, I’m not blind. But outside the extremes even that seems couched in a ‘don’t treat Russia unfairly here’ kind of mentality, not ‘bend over and do everything you can to favour Russia’.
He may not be compromised to the degree some believe. I’ve steered away from that line of speculation for years, although I haven’t ruled it out.
The real fucking problem for me is, while there’s plenty of evidence that fits that framework, it’s the lack of an alternative explanation that isn’t also shit. I’m trying to whip one up and I really can’t.
1. Trump believes what he says - He’s an idiot, or has questionable morals, or both. 2. Trump doesn’t believe it but it’s a negotiating tactic - It’s a terrible negotiating tactic. 3, 4, 5 etc - Same kind deal.
And yeah, we’re seeing that pivot now from ‘I can fix x easily’ to ‘things were done before my time, x wouldn’t have happened if that wasn’t done’
I said at the time when people were making the argument that Trump’s foreign policy was good in his first term, well, wait and see when he gets a few hand grenades to deal with.
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Trump believes what he says - He’s an idiot, or has questionable morals, or both.
I mean, that is a pretty consistent explanation for a lot of stuff he does. "Trump is a corrupt arrogant egoistic idiot with questionable morals" seems to consistently explain most of his behaviour.
The high amount of evidence for this explanation is probably the only thing that keeps everyone from being completely sure that he is russian-owned.
Of course, his cult just thinks : "He is our guy, so he is correct".
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United States24690 Posts
On June 17 2025 17:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank goodness it was voluntary. I'm curious about this part: "A brochure titled “Secretary of Defense Christian Prayer & Worship Service” featured the seal of the Department of Defense, suggesting that Hegseth and the government sponsored it, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, now a law professor, told CNN. That could be a breach of the First Amendment’s ban on the government promoting a religion." Christian prayer groups are generally fine legally, but they probably shouldn't be using government seals to imply the government is sponsoring and promoting Christianity in particular, right? If you ask any expert on the subject, doing this goes directly against the first amendment. If you ask r/conservative (I checked), the consensus is that it's fine.
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On June 17 2025 19:01 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +Trump believes what he says - He’s an idiot, or has questionable morals, or both. I mean, that is a pretty consistent explanation for a lot of stuff he does. "Trump is a corrupt arrogant egoistic idiot with questionable morals" seems to consistently explain most of his behaviour. The high amount of evidence for this explanation is probably the only thing that keeps everyone from being completely sure that he is russian-owned. Of course, his cult just thinks : "He is our guy, so he is correct". He didn't just end up their guy though. Its precisely his idiocy and lack of morals that is attractive to people.
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On June 17 2025 19:06 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 17:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank goodness it was voluntary. I'm curious about this part: "A brochure titled “Secretary of Defense Christian Prayer & Worship Service” featured the seal of the Department of Defense, suggesting that Hegseth and the government sponsored it, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, now a law professor, told CNN. That could be a breach of the First Amendment’s ban on the government promoting a religion." Christian prayer groups are generally fine legally, but they probably shouldn't be using government seals to imply the government is sponsoring and promoting Christianity in particular, right? If you ask any expert on the subject, doing this goes directly against the first amendment. If you ask r/conservative (I checked), the consensus is that it's fine.
An also probably "Lol, what is anyone gonna do about this?"
People need to really get it in their heads that laws and the constitution don't actually do things. People do things. It doesn't matter if something is legally directly against the first amendment if no one in power is inclined to do anything about it.
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Welcome to the post-compliancy world. Mad Max is looking around the corner waiting the strip the metal from your dead bodies. Or maybe a "The Purge" is on the agenda soon? I'm sure some proud boys are salivating at the thought
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Wow that is seriously fucking alarming.
I couldn't put in any better than the former Pentagon lawyer from the article who for some reason isn't a Pentagon lawyer anymore:
A former Pentagon lawyer who left the job last month told CNN the gathering was “incredibly problematic.”
Absolutely problematic. The next thing you know, the military will put a chaplain in every unit or something. That was unthinkable before MAGA. And they'll be there "promoting" Christianity instead of the gospel of Zoroaster.
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On June 17 2025 19:21 oBlade wrote:Wow that is seriously fucking alarming. I couldn't put in any better than the former Pentagon lawyer from the article who for some reason isn't a Pentagon lawyer anymore: Show nested quote +A former Pentagon lawyer who left the job last month told CNN the gathering was “incredibly problematic.” Absolutely problematic. The next thing you know, the military will put a chaplain in every unit or something. That was unthinkable before MAGA. And they'll be there "promoting" Christianity instead of the gospel of Zoroaster. I wonder how you'd react if they oriented their bodies towards Mecca every day, or would that be too much a change of fundamental values?
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On June 17 2025 19:06 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2025 17:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank goodness it was voluntary. I'm curious about this part: "A brochure titled “Secretary of Defense Christian Prayer & Worship Service” featured the seal of the Department of Defense, suggesting that Hegseth and the government sponsored it, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, now a law professor, told CNN. That could be a breach of the First Amendment’s ban on the government promoting a religion." Christian prayer groups are generally fine legally, but they probably shouldn't be using government seals to imply the government is sponsoring and promoting Christianity in particular, right? If you ask any expert on the subject, doing this goes directly against the first amendment. If you ask r/conservative (I checked), the consensus is that it's fine.
Totally sounds like both sides have equally valid perspectives!
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