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On April 06 2025 03:55 Timebon3s wrote:
How long do you think it will take before the republicans turn on Trump, or has it already happened?
Isn't he fucking over his own base by tanking the markets in the way he's doing?
Perhaps democrats and republicans will trauma bond over this and finally agree on something xD
I think everyone other than the absolutely most fringe MAGA types all agree this is a yolo play and it’s either gonna be wonderful or terrible. Even if they strongly lean towards wonderful, they all seem to understand that is not a guarantee. Anyone who wasn’t considering that possibility is absolutely considering it once the markets closed yesterday.
Even though many republicans just generally hate democrats, I think it’s fair to point out most of them legitimately believe democrats would be way worse for the economy and Trump would bully the world into enriching our country. If people assume the whole world is wildly dependent on us and they could never refuse our strong arm tactics, I can see why someone would assume we’d burn a bunch of good will but emerge like bandits.
Once that ship has totally sailed, which I genuinely hope it doesn’t, I think we will see a bit of a “never mind” movement. While tribalism usually overcomes all obstacles, it’s important to remember lower income folks were deeply struggling before this big mess. Rising rent, stagnant wages, and other dynamics that hit the poor the hardest contributed to people feeling like they have nothing to lose with Trump.
I think that also means it won’t take long for MAGA to get nervous and wonder if the sky is falling. Even if people buy into the “growing pains” narrative, once you can’t pay your rent, there’s really not anything else you can do to remain patient. If we see major items like iPhones actually go up 30% in price, it will make the whole situation feel very real and panic will set in. And everyone knows this is purely a Trump and republicans thing. It’s simply not the kinda situation that can be obfuscated.
If that happens and republicans see the writing on the wall, I think they’d either use the 25th amendment or impeachment to frame themselves as on the right side of history. Assuming Trump refuses to undo all this nonsense.
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On April 06 2025 03:55 Timebon3s wrote:
How long do you think it will take before the republicans turn on Trump, or has it already happened?
Isn't he fucking over his own base by tanking the markets in the way he's doing?
Perhaps democrats and republicans will trauma bond over this and finally agree on something xD
His "base" definitely isn't leaving, they paid for the whole ride. Republicans is another story. House members don't care because they can perform well electively in many circumstances due to being elected at the district level and because the House is more MAGA because it turns over more, every 2 years, and other reasons, that's where the tea party started.
Senators are more precarious being elected at the state level, so they need plausible deniability, so Johnson and Paul and I'm sure the 3 Democrats in the party have all been out loudly explaining why the tariff moves are bad. Lankford and Kennedy (R) too if I remember. Even Cruz I saw. This way if things go south, they can say well I voted for this symbolic thing that wouldn't do anything but it shows I was against him on this part.
Congress instead needs to get on a budget soon and if they don't actually fix spending, they will have seriously abandoned voters. Spending is not something the president can fix, it's the legislature. Trump's just going to sign whatever big beautiful bill they come up with. They have to cut spending, and they have to fix, and balance, while extending lower/middle class tax cuts and making up the missing revenue either from tariffs that might not exist next month or from... capital gains at a time when everyone is suffering capital losses. A bit tough.
As loud as people complain now, if equities boom again this year, or by next year, or if this year June after the debt is refinanced it turns out tariffs were all just a prank, bro, and there are a bunch of new trade deals toutable as success, lowered spending, a balanced budget, growth polices, deregulation, tax cuts, then it might be the first time since Clinton that the government really did something, and it really worked. Unfortunately for the GOP, even when Clinton was successful the American people immediately voted for the other party so it doesn't necessarily mean anything politically.
It's very interesting, his first term was a fine enough stewardship, where at the end he drew the short end of a century's luck with covid. Now, the fiscal policy and trade plays, if they work, he ends up as the greatest president since FDR, if they don't, he's the worst since Hoover. If the "it was just a prank bro" future holds, maybe he reverts before the first year's over back to an average no-war, moderately good for economy, overspender like first term. Seems very high variance right now. But also don't make me tap the sign: nothing ever happens.
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On April 06 2025 04:56 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 03:55 Timebon3s wrote:
How long do you think it will take before the republicans turn on Trump, or has it already happened?
Isn't he fucking over his own base by tanking the markets in the way he's doing?
Perhaps democrats and republicans will trauma bond over this and finally agree on something xD I think everyone other than the absolutely most fringe MAGA types all agree this is a yolo play and it’s either gonna be wonderful or terrible. Even if they strongly lean towards wonderful, they all seem to understand that is not a guarantee. Anyone who wasn’t considering that possibility is absolutely considering it once the markets closed yesterday. Even though many republicans just generally hate democrats, I think it’s fair to point out most of them legitimately believe democrats would be way worse for the economy and Trump would bully the world into enriching our country. If people assume the whole world is wildly dependent on us and they could never refuse our strong arm tactics, I can see why someone would assume we’d burn a bunch of good will but emerge like bandits. Once that ship has totally sailed, which I genuinely hope it doesn’t, I think we will see a bit of a “never mind” movement. While tribalism usually overcomes all obstacles, it’s important to remember lower income folks were deeply struggling before this big mess. Rising rent, stagnant wages, and other dynamics that hit the poor the hardest contributed to people feeling like they have nothing to lose with Trump. I think that also means it won’t take long for MAGA to get nervous and wonder if the sky is falling. Even if people buy into the “growing pains” narrative, once you can’t pay your rent, there’s really not anything else you can do to remain patient. If we see major items like iPhones actually go up 30% in price, it will make the whole situation feel very real and panic will set in. And everyone knows this is purely a Trump and republicans thing. It’s simply not the kinda situation that can be obfuscated. If that happens and republicans see the writing on the wall, I think they’d either use the 25th amendment or impeachment to frame themselves as on the right side of history. Assuming Trump refuses to undo all this nonsense.
You assume that people disliking his policy will be enough for him to undo it or get impeached. That requires that republicans think they can lose the midterm election and break ranks to fix it. Most would not lose their seats over this, so not sure enough people would break ranks on it.
Of course some corporations are pushing as they can on it. Which is another potential risk for republicans. Money to their opponents, even if that is another republican that is more corporate friendly. Since most money is directly from companies or their owners, in elections it matters a lot.
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On April 06 2025 05:05 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 04:56 Mohdoo wrote:On April 06 2025 03:55 Timebon3s wrote:
How long do you think it will take before the republicans turn on Trump, or has it already happened?
Isn't he fucking over his own base by tanking the markets in the way he's doing?
Perhaps democrats and republicans will trauma bond over this and finally agree on something xD I think everyone other than the absolutely most fringe MAGA types all agree this is a yolo play and it’s either gonna be wonderful or terrible. Even if they strongly lean towards wonderful, they all seem to understand that is not a guarantee. Anyone who wasn’t considering that possibility is absolutely considering it once the markets closed yesterday. Even though many republicans just generally hate democrats, I think it’s fair to point out most of them legitimately believe democrats would be way worse for the economy and Trump would bully the world into enriching our country. If people assume the whole world is wildly dependent on us and they could never refuse our strong arm tactics, I can see why someone would assume we’d burn a bunch of good will but emerge like bandits. Once that ship has totally sailed, which I genuinely hope it doesn’t, I think we will see a bit of a “never mind” movement. While tribalism usually overcomes all obstacles, it’s important to remember lower income folks were deeply struggling before this big mess. Rising rent, stagnant wages, and other dynamics that hit the poor the hardest contributed to people feeling like they have nothing to lose with Trump. I think that also means it won’t take long for MAGA to get nervous and wonder if the sky is falling. Even if people buy into the “growing pains” narrative, once you can’t pay your rent, there’s really not anything else you can do to remain patient. If we see major items like iPhones actually go up 30% in price, it will make the whole situation feel very real and panic will set in. And everyone knows this is purely a Trump and republicans thing. It’s simply not the kinda situation that can be obfuscated. If that happens and republicans see the writing on the wall, I think they’d either use the 25th amendment or impeachment to frame themselves as on the right side of history. Assuming Trump refuses to undo all this nonsense. You assume that people disliking his policy will be enough for him to undo it or get impeached. That requires that republicans think they can lose the midterm election and break ranks to fix it. Most would not lose their seats over this, so not sure enough people would break ranks on it. Of course some corporations are pushing as they can on it. Which is another potential risk for republicans. Money to their opponents, even if that is another republican that is more corporate friendly. Since most money is directly from companies or their owners, in elections it matters a lot.
I think we’re assuming very different scenarios in our heads. Lots of stuff going up 30% in price, along with stocks plunging, could end up creating a devastating situation if nations of the world hold strong against the US. Rather than elections I think riots would be the major concern. At one point it’s not even an election thing.
The current tariff situation isn’t even remotely viable. Without either side budging, the US will basically collapse. But if Trump appears dead set on sticking to his path, I think he’d be removed before riots.
Edit: and I agree with oBlade regarding potential outcomes. I would absolutely love for this to “work” and for the US to pull off the greatest heist ever. Even if Europe and the world as a whole began to pivot towards less reliance on the US, the benefits of winning the trade war would basically allow the US to actively preserve their hegemony regardless of what anyone else wants. It would be huge. But the opposite is also true.
I think it’s legitimately possible the world accepts nothing less than guarantees this never happens again rather than quickly settling for business as usual again. This stunt, along with the NATO/Russia stuff, is a bit too chilling for Europe to move on from unless they are totally boned. So I don’t really see a middle ground as possible. Maybe if it was only some trade stuff. But the military component makes it all likely too chilling for Europe to move on from without some kinda significant guarantee or concession.
But again, I have too much to gain or lose to root against Trump right now. Even though I hate the situation being created, I really hope it doesn’t collapse because I’m worried I’d lose my house or something
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Do you also think the EU will now order it's citizens and companies to buy beautiful American beef? What trade deals do you think can be done besides everyone is allowed to import every good from one another besides the ones that are illegal? People were importing your Tesla's and dodges, people will not suddenly start buying more of them to please trump so that our Porsches can be sold without tariffs to your middle aged men with small penises. There was never an unfair trade for the us in the first place, all victory laps he will do will be for imaginary victories.
I really can't wait for the American production of super cheap clothes and coffee and cocoa.
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On April 06 2025 05:13 Broetchenholer wrote:
Do you also think the EU will now order it's citizens and companies to buy beautiful American beef? What trade deals do you think can be done besides everyone is allowed to import every good from one another besides the ones that are illegal? People were importing your Tesla's and dodges, people will not suddenly start buying more of them to please trump so that our Porsches can be sold without tariffs to your middle aged men with small penises. There was never an unfair trade for the us in the first place, all victory laps he will do will be for imaginary victories.
I really can't wait for the American production of super cheap clothes and coffee and cocoa.
Even though I agree there is a certain amount of permanent damage a lot of Americans are failing to understand, I also think the economic benefits of "never mind" are too big to turn down. Staying the path would be wildly damaging to basically every country on Earth. And while I do think other nations working together to hammer the US while keeping each other afloat would help to reduce the pain a lot, the reality is everyone is way better off in a "never mind" scenario.
I don't think American exports will go back to where they were before. I don't think it would be like nothing happened. I think Trump and his team wrongly predicted the level of cultural harm this would do. Trump and his sociopath team seem to not quite understand how much the rest of the world values decency and good relations. Its not just a virtue signaling thing. Its not just optics. It really matters to many countries. Even if the governments signal optimism and forgiveness, Tesla for example is just dead in the dirt forever. And other American companies would suffer to varying extents permanently. Some companies, like Apple, would likely mostly go back to normal internationally. But I do think most of the world will hesitate to buy American products when they have other options for many years, even in a "never mind" scenario.
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On April 06 2025 05:13 Broetchenholer wrote:
Do you also think the EU will now order it's citizens and companies to buy beautiful American beef? What trade deals do you think can be done besides everyone is allowed to import every good from one another besides the ones that are illegal? People were importing your Tesla's and dodges, people will not suddenly start buying more of them to please trump so that our Porsches can be sold without tariffs to your middle aged men with small penises. There was never an unfair trade for the us in the first place, all victory laps he will do will be for imaginary victories.
I really can't wait for the American production of super cheap clothes and coffee and cocoa.
The thesis isn't every country needs to produce every kind of product and sell it to every other country. EU tariffs US cars, they don't need to. Germany was buying a third of their oil from Russia for a decade. Because it's cheap. Germany used the savings to balance shutting down nuclear power plants producing cheap electricity and buy inefficient solar and green options. It would have been better just to have not been buying from Russia the whole time, but bygones are bygones, so probably EU can get away with a deal to buy even more US oil since the US is a net energy exporter. France, Germany, US should all be collaborating on nuclear. We have beautiful mountains you can put the waste. EU can recycle fuel, US regulation still doesn't allow it. And if Germany really wants to remilitarize due to the threat of Russia (and Europe is okay with this) US would love to sell lots of 5.56mm for the boys' H&Ks and some shiny vehicles for them to ride in and pilot.
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On April 06 2025 05:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Edit: and I agree with oBlade regarding potential outcomes. I would absolutely love for this to “work” and for the US to pull off the greatest heist ever. Even if Europe and the world as a whole began to pivot towards less reliance on the US, the benefits of winning the trade war would basically allow the US to actively preserve their hegemony regardless of what anyone else wants. It would be huge. But the opposite is also true.
Can you describe what this "working" means?
On the trade side of things, the numbers presented aren't real. The average tariffs from your closest trading partners are 2-3%. Dropping those to 0 would have an entirely insignificant effect, certainly nothing even coming close to recovering the damage already done. China is the only important player with high tariffs on US goods and that started because of Trump's first presidency and stayed that way, certainly not a precedent that looks good for this strategy.
On the manufacturing side of things, there is no surplus labor force in the US to do it, especially when you couple this with deportations and generally making the US less attractive for foreign workers. And why would you want to stop having your workers sell the rest of the world pixels for ad space and instead have them sew clothes? It doesn't make any logical sense. The only realistic way of bringing back the rosy image you guys have of manufacturing is if you kill a few hundred million working-age men from other countries.
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Its no different from when Trump promised to bring coal jobs back and even the coal mining companies didn't want to invest in coal mining.
Florida is turning back child labour laws in an attempt to fill labour shortages but sure bring more manufacturing jobs to the US lol.
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On April 06 2025 05:45 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 05:13 Broetchenholer wrote:
Do you also think the EU will now order it's citizens and companies to buy beautiful American beef? What trade deals do you think can be done besides everyone is allowed to import every good from one another besides the ones that are illegal? People were importing your Tesla's and dodges, people will not suddenly start buying more of them to please trump so that our Porsches can be sold without tariffs to your middle aged men with small penises. There was never an unfair trade for the us in the first place, all victory laps he will do will be for imaginary victories.
I really can't wait for the American production of super cheap clothes and coffee and cocoa. The thesis isn't every country needs to produce every kind of product and sell it to every other country. EU tariffs US cars, they don't need to. Germany was buying a third of their oil from Russia for a decade. Because it's cheap. Germany used the savings to balance shutting down nuclear power plants producing cheap electricity and buy inefficient solar and green options. It would have been better just to have not been buying from Russia the whole time, but bygones are bygones, so probably EU can get away with a deal to buy even more US oil since the US is a net energy exporter. France, Germany, US should all be collaborating on nuclear. We have beautiful mountains you can put the waste. EU can recycle fuel, US regulation still doesn't allow it. And if Germany really wants to remilitarize due to the threat of Russia (and Europe is okay with this) US would love to sell lots of 5.56mm for the boys' H&Ks and some shiny vehicles for them to ride in and pilot.
This is a bit of a tangent but I love how you think solar is inefficient.
The problem with solar is that when it's on it's so damn cheap it just nukes every other form of energy. On a good sunny day the grid can't handle the production.
When it's not a good day you are fucked because you don't have other options.
Why? Because you can't sell electricity for those options during sunny days and if you build them for the rainy days you have enough power for those days and you won't get the insane profits you need for them.
The solution is gas power plants because they are pretty cheap to build as far as power goes, very effective and you can just turn them on when you need them. If you have access to cheap gas this is a very solid strategy.
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United States42971 Posts
On April 05 2025 19:52 Sadist wrote:
Oblade you cannot build your manufacturing base up in 2 years for consumer goods. No one is even starting because theres a thought the tariffs may go away.
A brownfield or greenfield plant takes years to be operational and requires huge investment. You also need to have a plan on what products will go there. For automotive all of this is selected 2-3 years before start of production.
Ah yes but what if we supercharge capital investment by reducing the available capital for it?
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On April 06 2025 03:19 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 02:28 Sermokala wrote:On April 05 2025 23:08 oBlade wrote:On April 05 2025 19:52 Sadist wrote:
Oblade you cannot build your manufacturing base up in 2 years for consumer goods. No one is even starting because theres a thought the tariffs may go away.
A brownfield or greenfield plant takes years to be operational and requires huge investment. You also need to have a plan on what products will go there. For automotive all of this is selected 2-3 years before start of production.
I mean I said 5-10 years we're in the same chapter if not on the same page. The 1-2 year answer is for the fact pain starts to ease by next year upon reinvestment, low rates, relaxing of tariffs, and new trade deals. Because the alleged problem is not strictly that manufacturing doesn't exist, but also other issues like that manufacturing isn't bought by other countries enough. TLDR: Trade deficit goes down by importing less, and by exporting more. The US uses ~78% of its industrial capacity now. That capacity can be spooled up readily with workers/materials if demand exists. That acceleration doesn't take 2-3 years. How can demand exist? To put it simply: Trump adds tariffs, starts a trade war other countries say ahhh please no, goes to India, says buy some fucking cars, they say okay and drop tariffs to import cars. That raises production, decreases the trade deficit, and seems to satisfy the general goals. Building out entire new plants to produce new things, or produce things the US should be producing or should have the ability to produce for itself, for example drugs like antibiotics, can take longer than the above. But doesn't need to take forever at all. Pessimism is its own drug. The Empire State Building was built in a little over a year. The idea the US can't do things because it's slow, when the US regulates things to be slow on purpose, that's why a parallel goal of Trump administrations has always been deregulation. Business wants itself. Business wants to do business. Regulation is why it can't and doesn't bother. Regulation is why BEAD hasn't connected anyone to the internet since 2021 and California doesn't have high speed rail. And it's intentional. Your idea of everyone possibly holding their breath because tariffs may disappear is certainly true. But realistically the only way they will just "go away" is if the entire Congress came together and rewrote the law (not likely in the House), or countries and companies come to the table in ways that help and actively make the tariffs obsolete. Or if Trump reconsiders something, is that something you see happening? Things take a long time beacuse the entire chain of things that have to be there have to exist for something to happen. The empire state building was built in a year beacuse they had the entire industry supporting it already chugging along. The plants building the materials to build the building were running, the people trained to build buildings were already employed and working togeather, OSHA wasn't a thing and people acepted a rule of thumb that for every million a project cost a person would die. Lack of support for key industries is not desirable. If you're saying of course we can't do the industry-specific equivalent of make an Empire State Building in 1 year in certain industries, because the support for the industry isn't there, yes, that's a national problem. Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 02:28 Sermokala wrote:
Do you think there is some massive ammount of rubber production going on in america today or that it would take a year to get them online? Rubber grows in rubber trees in tropical countries, it makes good tires and erasers, that's the extent of my knowledge on it. You might be alluding to something like, if a country can produce rubber and the US can't, and the US buys shit tons of rubber from them, then it wouldn't be fair to expect them to buy anything back, but I don't want to put words in your mouth. Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 02:28 Sermokala wrote:
Do you think there are iron mines and steel foundries just sitting on half shifts? Probably? That's what industrial capacity means, so yes. 78% capacity utilization doesn't mean the US has land to produce 28% more factories than now. It means existing industrial capacity is working at 78% of what it theoretically could (100% is really a theoretical maximum, not a target - 90% would be a high place to top out). But I don't know the exact breakdown for steel. I know auto capacity utilization is down very recently. Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 02:28 Sermokala wrote:
Do you think there are enough unemployed people who are trained in those roles that are just sitting on the couch doing nothing? Do you think there is enough transport capacity just sitting idle? Train them and use lower energy prices (oil drops in recession) to grow expansion of cheaper transport. Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 02:28 Sermokala wrote:
The worst part is that you can't imagine why these things were shipped overseas in the first place, it was beacuse it was cheaper for everyone. The idea that people are just going to suddenly acept massively increased prices for everything is wild considering thats why trump got elected in the first place. You're right, I can't imagine, I can only go by what I know. It was cheaper because every country other than the richest one in the world has lower labor costs, and most have less "OSHA" essentially to use your own framework. When you say it's cheaper, this means for the consumer. Most humans have interests both as consumers and as laborers. Unfortunately not everyone can labor, but everyone can consume. Most people like consuming, they don't like labor/producing as directly, either because they aren't rational and don't understand that labor/producing is the source of the money they use to consume and take care of themselves and their family, or because they are rational and rightly think that labor sucks. Either way, people trend to consumerism, that's what capitalism does once it establishes prosperity. You can let the consumerism win out, and say oh in a democracy people have the right to prioritize consumerism, who are we to say they're wrong about their interests, but it leads to deep-rooted issues if you never push back. But this is why we have countries with governments we can vote to represent our interests and aren't just an anarcho-capitalist borderless planet. There is a limit to how much the US worker wants to compete with the Chinese worker. The government is there to keep trade, and the economy frankly, fair, and they haven't. They have dropped the ball big time. They stood around for it, pretended to oppose it, watched it happen, and profited from it, and then they pivoted to convince wide swaths of people that their incompetence in letting it happen is actually just a manifestation of historical inevitability. Eventually workers reach the limit. If your workers cannot compete, the result is they will not compete. Then you end up with a significant welfare underclass - which the US has. Not because of a mere social safety net, but because the system has failed for half the country. The half that Romney said would never vote for him. That's who this is for. Did I imagine close? Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 02:28 Sermokala wrote:
Trump may not have another election in him but midterms are in 576 days. He does not have the time to rip up the entire economic structure of the country and neither does he have the support. Every nation in the world has access to the schedule for americas elections and know they just have to wait out trump while making deals with others to survive the pain. Once the american economy is in ashes they will be able to dictate terms. On the contrary, every bright nation is going look, I could possibly only have 4 years to get this done, I better seize this opportunity to get a better partnership with the greatest market on Earth.
Why is it a national problem that we can't create skyscrapers when we've learned that skyscrapers are a dumb idea that we shouldn't do? We don't build giant tall buildings beacuse giant wide buildings are better, and require different materials.
Rubber doens't just come from trees oblade. There was an event that happened you may have heard of called WW2 where getting rubber from the rubber zones of east asia became a little bit of an issue so we had to figure out how to make it on our own. You don't have to put words in my mouth the words you have used are just fine. You've demonstrated materials that we cannot make in scale in the US beacuse its so much cheaper to buy them in other countries and value add them in manufactuing. Trump has decided thats dumb and we should tariff them for those countries not buying enough american goods in return.
That capacity you're thinking of isn't just free "lets flip a switch" capacity its very select and niche capacity built on decades of devloping partnerships with other countries. You may have heard of a thing that happened recently called NAFTA that caused a lot of manufactuing, includeing auotomotive manufactureing, to become meshed with factories that make stuff in canada and mexico and then shipped to america. That all is being thrown out the window where the factories in america that produced other things now have to produce brand new things. This process doesn't take 567 days to do it takes years to begin to do.
Steel capacity in america does exist, but we already import a quarter of it. To increase production we have to increase the amount of steel produced. ignoring the massivly increased price of existing steel you need to build up the entire industry of steel production to replace just that quarter, let alone trying to figure out how to get past that. This isn't just one product either, there are lots of different kinds of steel that you use in different products, god forbid talking about other metals.
Whos going to buy these products that you're now making in America? The unimaginable costs of starting up all these production chains has to be paid from somewhere and will result in incredibly more expensive products on everything. If you're already accepting that an economic depression is a good thing somehow where do you think people are going to get the money to purchase more expensive products? People flipped their shit enough with post covid inflation and you think people are just going to love the post tariff inflation?
None of this is adressing the issues about why america can't compete with countries that have univerisal healthcare, why our schools are getting worse, why the industries wern't competative in the first place. What you're advocating for is massive government intervention into the free market to dictate that inefficencies need to happen beacuse we're too dumb or too poor to solve the problem any other way.
Why do they "only" have 4 years to "get this done" they're not stupid oblade they have access to the internet and can google when the midterms are. The USA is not the greatest market on earth when its government lacks the confidence in its greatness and is telling you that you'll only make a deal with them if it benifits them more than it benifits you.
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On April 06 2025 06:20 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2025 19:52 Sadist wrote:
Oblade you cannot build your manufacturing base up in 2 years for consumer goods. No one is even starting because theres a thought the tariffs may go away.
A brownfield or greenfield plant takes years to be operational and requires huge investment. You also need to have a plan on what products will go there. For automotive all of this is selected 2-3 years before start of production.
Ah yes but what if we supercharge capital investment by reducing the available capital for it?
What if we make our industries more competitive by increasing their costs and reducing the markets available to them?
The saddest thought is that these tariffs arn't enough to do what Trump wants them to do. Hes going to need to either massively increase them or people are just going to be expected to absorb the higher costs.
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On April 06 2025 05:57 Gorsameth wrote:
Florida is turning back child labour laws in an attempt to fill labour shortages but sure bring more manufacturing jobs to the US lol.
nah, the bill as doomed as long as it permits 15 to 17 year olds to work over night shifts when they must go to school the next day.
I think working a friday night shift and/or Saturday night shift is fine. Fucking around time on night shifts is sky high and even higher on weekends. it is a great way to do nothing and get paid.
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On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 05:57 Gorsameth wrote:
Florida is turning back child labour laws in an attempt to fill labour shortages but sure bring more manufacturing jobs to the US lol. nah, the bill as doomed as long as it permits 15 to 17 year olds to work over night shifts when they must go to school the next day. I think working a friday night shift and/or Saturday night shift is fine. Fucking around time on night shifts is sky high and even higher on weekends. it is a great way to do nothing and get paid.
Why is it doomed? Because republicans will be too ethical to do such a thing?
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United States24701 Posts
On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
I think working a friday night shift and/or Saturday night shift is fine. Fucking around time on night shifts is sky high and even higher on weekends. it is a great way to do nothing and get paid.
Why is that good and/or evidence that they should allow such shifts for minors?
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On April 06 2025 07:55 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
I think working a friday night shift and/or Saturday night shift is fine. Fucking around time on night shifts is sky high and even higher on weekends. it is a great way to do nothing and get paid. Why is that good and/or evidence that they should allow such shifts for minors?
define minor? Should a 17 year old be legally eligible to work the night shift at a gas station on Friday and/or Saturday nights? yep, they should be legally eligible to do so.
Should a 7 year old be legally permitted to do so. I say, NO.
17 year olds from 2 generations past are a good deal more psychologically durable than the 17 year olds of this and the previous generation precisely because they were far too coddled as teenagers.
here is a much deeper look into the issue of over-protecting teenagers.
https://www.thecoddling.com/
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United States24701 Posts
On April 06 2025 08:12 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 07:55 micronesia wrote:On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
I think working a friday night shift and/or Saturday night shift is fine. Fucking around time on night shifts is sky high and even higher on weekends. it is a great way to do nothing and get paid. Why is that good and/or evidence that they should allow such shifts for minors? define minor? Should a 17 year old be legally eligible to work the night shift at a gas station on Friday and/or Saturday nights? yep, they should be legally eligible to do so. Should a 7 year old be legally permitted to do so. I say, NO.
I was speaking about young employees in the context of:
On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
nah, the bill as doomed as long as it permits 15 to 17 year olds to work over night shifts when they must go to school the next day.
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On April 06 2025 05:51 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 05:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Edit: and I agree with oBlade regarding potential outcomes. I would absolutely love for this to “work” and for the US to pull off the greatest heist ever. Even if Europe and the world as a whole began to pivot towards less reliance on the US, the benefits of winning the trade war would basically allow the US to actively preserve their hegemony regardless of what anyone else wants. It would be huge. But the opposite is also true. Can you describe what this "working" means? On the trade side of things, the numbers presented aren't real. The average tariffs from your closest trading partners are 2-3%. Dropping those to 0 would have an entirely insignificant effect, certainly nothing even coming close to recovering the damage already done. China is the only important player with high tariffs on US goods and that started because of Trump's first presidency and stayed that way, certainly not a precedent that looks good for this strategy. On the manufacturing side of things, there is no surplus labor force in the US to do it, especially when you couple this with deportations and generally making the US less attractive for foreign workers. And why would you want to stop having your workers sell the rest of the world pixels for ad space and instead have them sew clothes? It doesn't make any logical sense. The only realistic way of bringing back the rosy image you guys have of manufacturing is if you kill a few hundred million working-age men from other countries.
“Working”: The US convinces other nations we are an irrational actor and willing to harm ourselves and everyone else if we are not gifted concessions. I think Trump mostly wants a variety of things whether land or investment or whatever. I think the actual logic is just “most countries will realize it’s easier to just throw us a bone and move on rather than make a fuss”.
It’s truly just trying to mirror Russia, Iran, and North Korea and hoping for the same free shit. Those 3 nations largely benefit from the world deciding it’s easier to bend around them rather than address the issue directly. Trump wants the same free shit.
But like I said, I think it’s heinous and distasteful. But now that it’s what’s happening, all I can really do is hope is goes well I guess.
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On April 06 2025 08:14 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 08:12 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On April 06 2025 07:55 micronesia wrote:On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
I think working a friday night shift and/or Saturday night shift is fine. Fucking around time on night shifts is sky high and even higher on weekends. it is a great way to do nothing and get paid. Why is that good and/or evidence that they should allow such shifts for minors? define minor? Should a 17 year old be legally eligible to work the night shift at a gas station on Friday and/or Saturday nights? yep, they should be legally eligible to do so. Should a 7 year old be legally permitted to do so. I say, NO. I was speaking about young employees in the context of: Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 07:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
nah, the bill as doomed as long as it permits 15 to 17 year olds to work over night shifts when they must go to school the next day.
i don't think 15 to 17 year olds should work a night shift when they must go to school the next day. it appears many floridians share my common sense perspective. as a result, the bill will die if it includes the legalization of such a thing.
and by "night shift" i'm talking working past 11pm into the morning hours... perhaps "midnight shift" is a more precise description.
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EPT
