EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2821
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
|
Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
| ||
|
GreenHorizons
United States24385 Posts
30% of EVs have only voted in general elections before 17.5% of EVs have never voted in an election before I wonder if polling reflects that electorate and if that pattern holds in other states? | ||
|
Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
| ||
|
Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 03 2020 06:28 GreenHorizons wrote: I wonder if polling reflects that electorate and if that pattern holds in other states? Per one pollster it can matter a lot in TX but not much elsewhere. (CES / Yougov poll. Does some level of tracking, using their recorded 2016 vote if they did a yougov survey back then). edit: Here's their data : https://bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/ces_swing/ Source: Preliminary data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (previously the CCES), fielded by YouGov from Sept. 29th - Oct. 27th. Post-stratification weights are implemented to make the samples representative of adults in each state by gender, age, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote. Adult population targets defined using the most recent 5-year American Community Survey. Probabilistic likely voter weights applied imply the following number of likely voters in each state: Florida = 3,755, Georgia = 1,456, North Carolina = 1,627, Pennsylvania = 2,703, Texas = 2,947. Microdata from the study will be released publicly in 2021. | ||
|
Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
| ||
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
On November 03 2020 06:49 plasmidghost wrote: Fascinating. I'm curious to see where we end up after the polls close. I'm personally predicting another 13% of RVs to vote, bringing our total turnout to 70% Really hope it's still even higher than that. 75% would be insane. For context, in the modern political era which is 70s and later, the highest voter turnout has never broken 60%. The last time it was 60% was 1968. The last time it was 70% was 1900. The peak was 81% in 1860 (Lincoln's election go figure). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections | ||
|
Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
Nationwide it's of course going to be way lower, as the votes really don't matter in deep blue or red districts. It's honestly almost always a bad sign when US turnout gets high - not that the voting makes it that way, but that much (ie, that high a %) of the populace only votes if times are bad. It generally only happens in times of massive political unrest (ie civil war or reconstruction era). NYT's Maggie Haberman is reporting that Trump has started telling his advisors that he's worried about being indicted if he loses election and that his aides largely think he's running a losing campaign, but only will say that in private. Seldom far from Mr. Trump’s thoughts, however, is the possibility of defeat — and the potential consequences of being ejected from the White House. In unguarded moments, Mr. Trump has for weeks told advisers that he expects to face intensifying scrutiny from prosecutors if he loses. He is concerned not only about existing investigations in New York, but the potential for new federal probes as well, according to people who have spoken with him. [...] Republican lawmakers have offered less rosy assessments of his prospects, and in private some Trump advisers do not argue the point. One high-ranking Republican member of Congress vented to Mr. Meadows last month that if Mr. Trump “is trying to lose the election I can’t think of anything I’d tell him to do differently,” the lawmaker recalled, noting that the aide only nodded his head in acknowledgment. “They just think they can’t do anything about it.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/trump-campaign.html | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
| ||
|
PhoenixVoid
Canada32755 Posts
Karens are backing Biden +20 points over Trump, which is hilarious given how Karen is shorthand for the easily incited, always complaining, probably racist white suburban mom in her 40s to 50s. Also note how the top 7 names for Biden are feminine names, indicating how well Biden's been doing with women across the board this election. Trump is doing very well with men, especially Richard, which gave rise to the joke that he's supported by Dicks. | ||
|
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
On November 03 2020 07:28 PhoenixVoid wrote: To give the thread a bit of a lighter air, the NYT published a survey of the top 10 frequently appearing male and female names from their polls and it has a few fun nuggets of information to glean. https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1323250484715622401 Karens are backing Biden +20 points over Trump, which is hilarious given how Karen is shorthand for the easily incited, always complaining, probably racist white suburban mom in her 40s to 50s. Also note how the top 7 names for Biden are feminine names, indicating how well Biden's been doing with women across the board this election. Trump is doing very well with men, especially Richard, which gave rise to the joke that he's supported by Dicks. Save this stuff until the electoral off season when the shitposts are needed LOL And yes to the civil unrest leads to higher voter turnout, it's not going to be a pretty night. | ||
|
Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
| ||
|
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
On November 03 2020 08:43 plasmidghost wrote: I bought up a bunch of food to last a couple of weeks just in case things go south here. Pretty nervous with how things are going to be, especially in Texas smart of you. luckily im in california so it shouldnt be too bad here but the more i see the news, the more and more nervous im getting for some serious unrest. | ||
|
Gahlo
United States35174 Posts
On November 03 2020 04:34 BlueBird. wrote: I’ve always used the secrecy sleeve here in Oregon but it says optional right on the sleeve. So I’m a bit surprised that this other state it’s considered a requirement for it to count 🤷♀️. Keeps the vote anonymous, which is kinda important. The fact that it's optional there is kinda bizarre to me. I'm right in the middle of possible looting and Trumpistan in the Philly burbs. I have taken the next two days off and bought 3 pizzas. I'm not leaving the house for at least another 60 hours. | ||
Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37120 Posts
| ||
micronesia
United States24805 Posts
| ||
|
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
On November 09 2020 05:20 micronesia wrote: Note: The 2020 election day thread had relaxed posting standards. This thread does not. Please resume posting in accordance with the moderator note at the top of the thread and general policies for discussion threads that are not "live-report" style. Micronesia really doesn't want us talking about dumps anymore. I'm still not convinced that America is ready for progressives yet. AOC is obviously going to cherrypick her stats to show, hey look, establishment/traditional dems bad, progressive dems good! But when we saw how New Mexico's two progressives that primaried incumbent establishment dems and went on to lose to republicans, it's really hard to show me that progressives have entered mainstream politics in the eye of the American electorate. I think Dems right now need to continue to pull at those moderates and fringe conservatives and educate them what the current Dem platform is. Once they get comfortable with the middle ground, they'll be more likely to accept progressive policies. One doesn't just randomly jump from being a Trump to a progressive, or even a lean-conservative to being a progressive. That's where I am right now, was a conservative, now a moderate, and I'm continuing to educate myself on progressive polices like M4A, Green New Deal type policies, massive wealth taxes, so on and so forth. Not quite there yet, but I wouldn't even have thought about caring about those policies or given them the time of day when I was still a lean-conservative. | ||
|
DarkPlasmaBall
United States46510 Posts
On November 09 2020 05:27 FlaShFTW wrote: Micronesia really doesn't want us talking about dumps anymore. I'm still not convinced that America is ready for progressives yet. AOC is obviously going to cherrypick her stats to show, hey look, establishment/traditional dems bad, progressive dems good! But when we saw how New Mexico's two progressives that primaried incumbent establishment dems and went on to lose to republicans, it's really hard to show me that progressives have entered mainstream politics in the eye of the American electorate. I think Dems right now need to continue to pull at those moderates and fringe conservatives and educate them what the current Dem platform is. Once they get comfortable with the middle ground, they'll be more likely to accept progressive policies. One doesn't just randomly jump from being a Trump to a progressive, or even a lean-conservative to being a progressive. That's where I am right now, was a conservative, now a moderate, and I'm continuing to educate myself on progressive polices like M4A, Green New Deal type policies, massive wealth taxes, so on and so forth. Not quite there yet, but I wouldn't even have thought about caring about those policies or given them the time of day when I was still a lean-conservative. It certainly does seem like a catch-22 though: appealing to the moderates and fringe conservatives might pick up support on their side, but will disenfranchise the left-wing..... and vice-versa. I don't know if there's a way to please people on both sides of that center-left. | ||
|
Slydie
2014 Posts
One doesn't just randomly jump from being a Trump to a progressive You might be right, but jumping the other way, from Progressive to Trump, is definitely a thing. If you are tired of the establishment, want radical change and to "drain the swamp", doing it in the opposite direction might be a compelling alternative. | ||
|
Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
It seems counterintuitive given they're deeper Trump-types than fringe conservatives, but I think what they saw in Trump makes them more amenable to being addressed. Nice easy to understand policy that clearly benefits them, making it super, SUPER, icantstressthisenough HYPER clear that they are listened to, that they are cared about, that their plight is not ignored. I'm biased though because the lower class is my class.  | ||
| ||
