EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2820
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22658 Posts
On November 03 2020 01:57 Starlightsun wrote: During this election season I would imagine it isn't a huge difference in number of rallies.Yeah I hope I'm remembering the number correctly, and of course they're estimates. But it's indisputable how reckless and irresponsible he has been. I'm curious too how much his time spent campaigning compares to past presidents. With the amount of rallies he is doing I don't see how he has time to do his job. The biggest difference is that he never really stopped doing rallies after winning back in 2016. And yes, he was never spending time on his 'job' anyway. He probably spend more time golfing then being President. | ||
KwarK
United States44372 Posts
It’s a bit confusing and will likely disproportionately impact low education and English as a second language voters. They’re not saying that the ballots don’t indicate the voting preferences of legal American voters, just that they won’t be counting those votes. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/918368319/naked-ballot-rule-could-lead-to-thousands-of-pa-votes-getting-rejected | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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plated.rawr
Norway1676 Posts
On November 03 2020 03:04 KwarK wrote: Pennsylvania, which was decided by a margin of less than 1% last election, will not be counting mailed in ballots that are completed but don’t use the envelope inside the envelope. For people not familiar with it, you put the ballot inside an envelope and then you put that envelope inside the mailing envelope that comes with the mail-in ballot package. If you just mail in your mail-in ballot in the mail that won’t count. You have to mail in your secrecy envelope too for it to count. It’s a bit confusing and will likely disproportionately impact low education and English as a second language voters. They’re not saying that the ballots don’t indicate the voting preferences of legal American voters, just that they won’t be counting those votes. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/918368319/naked-ballot-rule-could-lead-to-thousands-of-pa-votes-getting-rejected I've done early vote reception most of our local amd national elections the last 14 years, and this is how it's done in Norway as well, for early voting. The outside envelope is to ensure the vote gets to the correct county, where the outer envelope is removed and the inside envelope is put into a sealed ballott container to be counted by different, monitored personell. Without the inner envelope, the personell handling the re-ballotting after recieving could easily manipulate the vote without it being verifiable after the fact. Therefore, votes failing to follow the two-envelope prosedure, are dismissed. Now, we put heavy empasis on communicating proper vote delivery on-scene, and also do the outside envelope for the voter before they put their double-enveloped vote into the ballott box (but after theyve sealed their vote in the inner envelope, making is unable to tamper with or discern it's content), so chance to do wrong here is minimum, i assume. It sounds like the ballot system is poorly thought out, and or the work crew poorly instructed if such envelope errors can happen. However, discarding the vote when the error is noticed sounds to me to be the only sensible reaction in such a case. Edit: bloody mobile autocovfefe | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On November 03 2020 03:04 KwarK wrote: Pennsylvania, which was decided by a margin of less than 1% last election, will not be counting mailed in ballots that are completed but don’t use the envelope inside the envelope. For people not familiar with it, you put the ballot inside an envelope and then you put that envelope inside the mailing envelope that comes with the mail-in ballot package. If you just mail in your mail-in ballot in the mail that won’t count. You have to mail in your secrecy envelope too for it to count. It’s a bit confusing and will likely disproportionately impact low education and English as a second language voters. They’re not saying that the ballots don’t indicate the voting preferences of legal American voters, just that they won’t be counting those votes. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/918368319/naked-ballot-rule-could-lead-to-thousands-of-pa-votes-getting-rejected As much as it might suck for democrats, I can understand that ruling. The ballots come with instructions, there is a need for secrecy to avoid your vote being linked to your name by the person processing those, it should reduce chances of tampering. If voters can't follow instructions because they were being lazy, well.... tough luck. I don't find these instructions a barrier to voting. edit : yup, better articulated by plated.rawr above. | ||
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Simberto
Germany12026 Posts
On November 03 2020 03:35 Nouar wrote: As much as it might suck for democrats, I can understand that ruling. The ballots come with instructions, there is a need for secrecy to avoid your vote being linked to your name by the person processing those, it should reduce chances of tampering. If voters can't follow instructions because they were being lazy, well.... tough luck. I don't find these instructions a barrier to voting. edit : yup, better articulated by plated.rawr above. Yeah, Germany uses a similar procedure. The problem with mail-in voting is that you need to confirm that the mail actually comes from someone who can vote, while also keeping the vote itself secret. It seems that the best solution people have come up with so far is the double envelope solution, and that means that votes who fail to use the double envelope setup are invalid. It sucks that it is slightly complicated, and it does lead to a higher percentage of invalid votes, but i don't really see any way around this, because the vote being secret it incredibly important. | ||
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BlueBird.
United States3890 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 03 2020 04:34 BlueBird. wrote: I’ve always used the secrecy sleeve here in Oregon but it says optional right on the sleeve. So I’m a bit surprised that this other state it’s considered a requirement for it to count 🤷♀️. yeah i didn't bother with mine this year | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27463 Posts
If so I think it’s a reasonable process to have. Alternatively, as Bluebird said with his particular state it’s marked optional. So if we had a scenario where it was stated it was optional, and then subsequently ballots were thrown out that would be a complete Horlicks. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
Ballot in secrecy sleeve, in envelope 1, inside envelope 2. All are mandatory, if one is missing presumably the ballot would be invalidated. Throwing it out is the right decision. It sucks, but no way around it. 1 more day of this nonsense and off we go. Last time around in 2018? 538 had a bit of an overeager prediction system, and I think I wound up going to NYT's tracker. Where's the best place to follow it this time around? | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
On November 03 2020 04:34 BlueBird. wrote: I’ve always used the secrecy sleeve here in Oregon but it says optional right on the sleeve. So I’m a bit surprised that this other state it’s considered a requirement for it to count 🤷♀️. Not too surprising. Especially in a state like PA where you want to ensure voter protection for the secrecy of your ballot, this ruling actually makes sense unlike the arbitrary no drive-in voting in Harris County. On November 03 2020 04:43 Lmui wrote: I mailed in my ballot this year and same procedure in BC, Canada. Ballot in secrecy sleeve, in envelope 1, inside envelope 2. All are mandatory, if one is missing presumably the ballot would be invalidated. Throwing it out is the right decision. It sucks, but no way around it. 1 more day of this nonsense and off we go. Last time around in 2018? 538 had a bit of an overeager prediction system, and I think I wound up going to NYT's tracker. Where's the best place to follow it this time around? I always use NYT tracker for all the primaries and election night, I think it's the fastest and most accurate for a minute-by-minute update. Even if I hate NYT's current journalism, their election night coverage is solid. I also love the whole speedometers they have for every state with who is likely to win at that point in the night. Look forward to tomorrow night, as a West Coast guy I'll be well up into election night and probably staying up til 2am just to keep track of everything. It's going to be a wide ride. | ||
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KwarK
United States44372 Posts
Throwing out all the votes seems a ridiculously bad response to “well what if someone saw it”. Like we’re simultaneously terrified of a malicious processor throwing out all the votes for a candidate they dislike but also think that such a person is unable to open envelopes and probably isn’t worth keeping an eye on anyway. It’s a weird fix to a very narrow problem. If we trust these people enough to be in a room with all the ballots then can we not trust them to put them in envelopes without trying to rig the election? Is throwing out the votes really the best way to stop their assumed malicious intent? What if one of them is both malicious and smart enough to know how to use envelopes? Or worse, when he finds a naked ballot for his candidate he then takes the envelope from a ballot for the other candidate and places it in that, thus giving him permission to discard the ballot. Not counting some of the ballots seems a very odd solution to this problem. | ||
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Taelshin
Canada420 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
Not all counties have high speed letter processing machinery so it's going to be a long wait for results, despite a lot of places doing 12h shifts til counting finishes. https://www.penncapital-star.com/election-2020/map-how-pa-counties-plan-to-count-3-1-million-mail-ballots/ | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
Guess I called it, the Court rejected the argument for lack of standing. Maybe I still remember somethings from Civil Procedures after all. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/trump-vs-biden-judge-rules-on-harris-county-texas-drive-thru-voting.html | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 03 2020 05:24 Lmui wrote: Since PA is the focus this time around, the odds of us getting a result on Nov. 3 is quite low. Most likely we won't know the results for PA til Nov. 4th or later. Not all counties have high speed letter processing machinery so it's going to be a long wait for results, despite a lot of places doing 12h shifts til counting finishes. https://www.penncapital-star.com/election-2020/map-how-pa-counties-plan-to-count-3-1-million-mail-ballots/ It depends on how close the election is. If it is close we may not know for days. However, if it is a landslide one way or the other we should know tomorrow night or early wednesday morning. Polls do suggest just short of a landslide, so it depends on how off they are. Essentially, if Biden wins one of FL, OH, GA then he's almost guaranteeed to win, and those will report pretty early (especially if he wins them by a sizable margin). edit: Here's the 538 writeup on when states start reporting and which ones to watch. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/ Swing(ish) states and when they close : 7 PM : GA 7:30 : NC,OH 8 : PA*,ME 2nd,FL 9: AZ,TX 10 : IA, MT These states will usually have preliminary projections a couple hours afterwards. The exception is PA which can't start counting mail in votes until day of election and is expected to take days. If Biden takes more than 1 of these he's probably going to win (since it would indicate the polls were either correct or underestimating him). | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 03 2020 05:38 FlaShFTW wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/trump-vs-biden-judge-rules-on-harris-county-texas-drive-thru-voting.html LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Guess I called it, the Court rejected the argument for lack of standing. Maybe I still remember somethings from Civil Procedures after all. So at this point there simply isn't even enough time left to appeal it again? When does Texas officially began tallying ballots? | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
On November 03 2020 05:40 Mohdoo wrote: So at this point there simply isn't even enough time left to appeal it again? When does Texas officially began tallying ballots? They will do an emergency appeal to the 5th Circuit, but I highly doubt the 5th Circuit is going to review this and say that the District Court was wrong. That being said, this is a black/white issue for question of federal question standing, and therefore there is no question of judicial discretion. The 5th Circuit can simply hold there is a federal question and remand for review consistent with the holding. But no, I don't think this is likely at all to happen. There's no standing period, anyone who pretends as such is lying. There are no federal questions on the topic of voting, this has always, and will always, be left to the states with the jurisprudential question of federalism. | ||
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