EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2818
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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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WarSame
Canada1950 Posts
It freaks me out how much and how casually people in your country tie people to identifying as one party or another. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 02 2020 08:46 FlaShFTW wrote: I won't lie, I think it's pointless to just base polling off of "oh they got it right before". I don't like Nate Silver and 538, they definitely got a lot wrong in 2016. Rasmussen got 2016 right but they're a notoriously awful metric, same with Trafalgar. Being right on something doesn't make you better, it's just results based analysis. I'm not quite as hopeful on Texas flipping just yet. I think enough of the polls favor Trump that he should coast to a small margin of victory. Rasmussen did not get 2016 more right than other pollsters in any sense except the popular vote, which everyone got almost as right : National polls were ~3.1%(depending on which ones you're talking about), Rasmussen was 1.7%, actual result wound up around 2.1%. They leveraged this small factoid into a PR bid to buy some credibility, since they've always been a notoriously partisan leaning outlet, with their founder regularly appearing at conservative conventions. Everyone screwed up in state polls, which are what are actually predictive: Rasmussen didn't even do state polls in 2016, and in 2018 I think they were one of the worst performing. 538 definitely has the best analysis on stats around, politics or otherwise. They've pointed out that the best way to read their model is that it's trying to tell you the chances that the polls are wrong, rather than the other way around. The polls all said Hillary was ahead, but that she would lose if even an average polling error happened in Trump's favor, which was why they gave Trump such a high chance compared to every other prediction outlet. Their only real mistake, I think, was having the nowcast which was wildly misused by everyone. I am positive they've made their model a lot less certain than it was in 2012, at the least, though (and I suspect 2016 too). Romney was given an 8% chance with much better state polling than Trump. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On November 02 2020 12:19 plasmidghost wrote: We should know early results in Texas in about 48 hours. It's going to come down to how much the Dems mobilized votes here. 2016 saw Trump win by 800k votes and we gained 1.9 million new voters between that election and this one. I hope the majority of them end up Dem. Demographics and other polling information indicates that's likely the case Also: Another point to keep in mind is that many people have moved from California to Texas since 2016 due to many businesses moving headquarters here. Also, that's an amazing number of phone calls. Hopefully that's the push we needed to flip this state blue. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On November 02 2020 12:36 WarSame wrote: Alternately, and much more hopefully for your country, it's possible that traditionally Republican voters are either disgusted enough by the current Republican party to be put off voting or to vote for the Democrats. It freaks me out how much and how casually people in your country tie people to identifying as one party or another. Every Republican I know in Texas still voted from Trump even though they agree he's an unlikable asshole who doesn't know what he's doing. They think he's doing a terrible job but they (and these are their real reasons for voting Trump) like his economic policy more, support him on abortion, and he's not a Democrat. Not every Republican I know voted for him for all 3 of these reasons(in fact, most only had 1 reason to vote for him), but they voted for him nonetheless. | ||
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WarSame
Canada1950 Posts
On November 02 2020 12:58 StasisField wrote: Every Republican I know in Texas still voted from Trump even though they agree he's an unlikable asshole who doesn't know what he's doing. They think he's doing a terrible job but they (and these are their real reasons for voting Trump) like his economic policy more, support him on abortion, and he's not a Democrat. Not every Republican I know voted for him for all 3 of these reasons(in fact, most only had 1 reason to vote for him), but they voted for him nonetheless. And if that's the way your country views politics, and continues to view politics, then it will clearly decline and be replaced by China as the world superpower. America has continued to fail to fix its systemic issues, and is declining as a result. And you'll deserve it. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On November 02 2020 12:58 StasisField wrote: Every Republican I know in Texas still voted from Trump even though they agree he's an unlikable asshole who doesn't know what he's doing. They think he's doing a terrible job but they (and these are their real reasons for voting Trump) like his economic policy more, support him on abortion, and he's not a Democrat. Not every Republican I know voted for him for all 3 of these reasons(in fact, most only had 1 reason to vote for him), but they voted for him nonetheless. I'd love to hear them explain what his "economic policy" is. | ||
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Cush
United States646 Posts
On November 02 2020 13:13 plasmidghost wrote: As an American, I agree. This country has done so many horrible things during our history to our citizens and to other countries. We are a dying empire and will be usurped by China soon. Lmao, if the USA is such a terrible place then leave already. There are hundreds of millions of people who would gladly take your place. | ||
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Zooper31
United States5713 Posts
On November 02 2020 13:28 Cush wrote: Lmao, if the USA is such a terrible place then leave already. There are hundreds of millions of people who would gladly take your place. It's ok to acknowledge ones own flaws while wanting to improve. Loving your country is not synonymous with turning a blind eye to what we do badly. That clip from "The Newsroom" with Jeff Daniels explains it so perfectly. I can be a patriot and still wish America wasn't as shitty as it is with some things. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 02 2020 13:16 Starlightsun wrote: I'd love to hear them explain what his "economic policy" is. “Get government out of the way of innovation and American exceptionalism” Since, ya know, the government isn’t directly responsible for the military. One of my favorite failings of conservative ideology is that they never recognize the fact that the military is a direct subordinate of our government, the government controls them and is responsible for their success. The us government won world war 2 and caused the Japanese to surrender. And yet conservatives like to cite failures of government as if it’s some kind of “checkmate” argument. Decide whether the military is successful or not. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Trump or biden winning with a small margin could destroy the faith in democracy for a considerable part of the population,in that aspect trump has made the stakes way to high with his claims about voter fraud beforehand. By making the stakes so high,creating doubts about the democray if he would lose,The only "good" outcome would be either trump or biden winning with a big margin. For trump this is impossible that much is clear,which leaves biden winning with a big margin as the only "good" outcome. Any other outcome could put the faith in democracy in jeopardy and with that the binding factor of the whole nation. Biden winning with a big margin comes down to the evangelicals,they did gain a lot from trumps presidency but to do so they had to make a pact with someone who goes against many of the christian values. Now that the christians got their judges it could be a good moment for them to take their profits and run. (and i think they will actually do so). The election is important for europe and for me this election is not the enjoyable "far from home" show that previous elections were,it does feel much more serious. One perspective i have heard was that the election was a poll about populism. If trump would win it would be a big benefit for similar politicians in europe. The european union is much more fragile then the unites states of america,a rise of populism in the eu could easily be the beginning of the end for the union. I am not a huge fan of the union and i think it did more harm then good for many people but at this point we are in so deep that going back would be an even worse way to go then to continue and possibly reform the union. Business boarding up,it was on cnn today. Everyone seems to anticipate the worst. At this point maybe the military should step in to ensure an orderly and fair election and to protect the democracy and the safety of the people. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 02 2020 13:28 Cush wrote: Lmao, if the USA is such a terrible place then leave already. There are hundreds of millions of people who would gladly take your place. Reasons this is a bad argument: 1. Not really the case anymore. Legal immigration is down 7% since Trump took office and illegal immigration is down by significantly more. Considering we've been performing forced sterilizations on some of our recent immigrants, I wouldn't be surprised to see this drop another 15-20%. A stagnating minimum wage has also massively depressed the drive for people to move here. 2. It takes an insanely privileged life to immigrate to another first world country from the US. It requires substantial wealth or education to be approved to immigrate to Canada or Europe. Yes, I could do it, with a graduate degree in an in-demand field, but many of the most oppressed in the US have no recourse like you're suggesting. It still takes a mildly privileged life to flee to a poorer country, namely, money to fund the move, an in-depth knowledge of the culture, and knowledge of the spoken language. Most people in the US would be broke by an unexpected 500$ bill, and it takes, at a rough guess, 10x that to arrange a new life in even the cheapest of countries. By the time you realize you need to be bilingual to leave, it's going to be past the age when picking up a language is easy. 3. The implications of it. If everyone opposing Republican ideologies leaves the US, then we've just handed the world's largest military over to people we disagree with on deep moral grounds, with 0 checks left in place. 4. Ever consider that these people that hate the US still want to improve their birth place? If everyone who thinks the US has done bad, fucked up shit leaves, then basically everyone with above a freshman level of college education is going to be gone. Every country has a pattern of behavior like this, though the US is one of the darkest shades of grey out there due to our chattel slavery. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On November 02 2020 13:16 Starlightsun wrote: I'd love to hear them explain what his "economic policy" is. When I challenged my brother on it and cited the massive number of people on unemployment and the equally massive number of failing small businesses, he responded with, "Come on, unemployment isn't even that bad. I don't even know anyone who is unemployed right now." I'm literally unemployed at the moment. There is no help for these people. | ||
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
On November 02 2020 13:39 pmh wrote: Business boarding up,it was on cnn today. Everyone seems to anticipate the worst. At this point maybe the military should step in to ensure an orderly and fair election and to protect the democracy and the safety of the people. While not technically military, the national guard have been activated in several (12) states to help in various capacities. Most (possibly all?) will not be armed or with uniform, just helping the process along. Wouldn't be surprised if that last part changes, but it would indeed be under extreme circumstances. At least 1,400 Guard troops have been committed to the effort, with about 1,000 from Texas alone. Many states yet to determine how many will be. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/election-2020/2020/10/28/heres-how-the-national-guard-is-supporting-the-nov-3-election/ | ||
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Cush
United States646 Posts
Honestly, I'm just wasting my time. The echo chamber/circlejerking is pretty intense in here lol. Can't wait too see you guys lose your minds again on Tuesday! | ||
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Shingi11
290 Posts
Donald Trump has told confidants that he will declare victory on Election Night if it looks like he’s "ahead," a new report on Sunday has claimed. Like are we going to see him try to claim victroy with only like 70% of precincts in just cause he happen to have a lead at that point. The amount that biden is going to have to win by just to win is ridicules.Hard to even call us a repluic anymore when you have such blatant corruption by one side This is turning into such a clown festa, how far we have fallen. I just hope dems remember all this and give the GOP the middle finger when they cry about not being treated fair. | ||
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pajoondies
United States316 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23930 Posts
On November 02 2020 14:23 Shingi11 wrote: So it is not even absentee and mail in votes that trump will try not count, we could see him try and stop election day votes. Like are we going to see him try to claim victroy with only like 70% of precincts in just cause he happen to have a lead at that point. The amount that biden is going to have to win by just to win is ridicules.Hard to even call us a repluic anymore when you have such blatant corruption by one side This is turning into such a clown festa, how far we have fallen. I just hope dems remember all this and give the GOP the middle finger when they cry about not being treated fair. imo If Trump is up on election night he absolutely will claim victory and put forth the idea that the outcome changing would be a result of foul play and shouldn't be allowed to happen. | ||
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