EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2817
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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8074 Posts
But it's still a shit democracy that fails its citizens on an impressive amount of levels and would need a huge amount of reforms. | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10393 Posts
On November 02 2020 00:34 NewSunshine wrote: There's two sides to the issue. But when your side is consistently trying to throw out votes, maybe your side is just fucking wrong, and they're not 2 comparable positions. This was the same as Charlottesville rally. Yeah, both sides are bad, one side decided to drive over protestors, the other side was protesting in the streets. Yep, they're both bad amirite guys? More votes being counted will always be better than trying to reduce the possibilities to vote. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10393 Posts
On November 02 2020 06:56 Mohdoo wrote: So does the Texas Supreme Court finally mean those votes will be counted? Since elections are basically entirely state ran, I would be surprised if the federal Supreme Court was willing to hear the case. Are any of our law-educated people willing to comment on it? Feel like I should know this better since I go to law school in Houston but not entirely familiar with how the federal and state courts yield decision making to the other branch. In an ideal world, of course the Texas Supreme Court should be the ultimate decider. In fact, it's confusing because there's no diverse parties in this case, it is a Texas issue, so diversity jurisdiction is out of the question. I suppose Republicans are hoping that this falls into a federal question doctrine but even then, election laws are left to the states so is this something that a federal court should even be hearing? Who knows, I'm sure as the news has pointed out that a Republican judge might try to weasel this case in front of him to make his holding, then to have an emergency appeal where both the state and federal court opinions differ and the SCOTUS with the 6-3 majority would hold for the Republicans. That's my expectation at least. On another note, I hypothesize that this election, even if Biden is favored to win, has more on the line than just who wins. If Biden only wins by a little, we probably see Republicans double down on their Trump stances and believe that they can win in 2022/24 with the same platform. I think Biden really needs to carry a significant amount of the electorate, winning states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida to send a strong message to Republicans that if they try to keep riding with Trump or Trump-like policies, they'll be in for a rough political future. It would send them a wake up call to hopefully, at the very least, return to the party of someone like Reagan. Doesn't matter if you like or dislike Reagan, I think we can all say it would be a healthier party that would have long-term viability in the electorate. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
In an ideal world, of course the Texas Supreme Court should be the ultimate decider. In fact, it's confusing because there's no diverse parties in this case, it is a Texas issue, so diversity jurisdiction is out of the question. I suppose Republicans are hoping that this falls into a federal question doctrine but even then, election laws are left to the states so is this something that a federal court should even be hearing? Yeah that’s how I view it. Since elections are very very state-defined, the federal court even hearing the case would seem inappropriate | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10393 Posts
On November 02 2020 08:10 plasmidghost wrote: If someone had told me when I first voted in 2014 that Texas would have a realistic shot of going blue in 2020, I would've laughed heartily. I can't believe how close this race is here. 47.5% of all early voters have never voted in a primary and thus have no known party affiliation. 17.5% of early voters have never voted in any election before. This can't be stated enough that the potential seismic shift in Texas could upend politics for a generation to come. And I think it's thanks to Beto's super close Senate race in 2018 showing a new generation the potential that we have to be a swing state. Speaking of our Senate race, Emerson called Cruz +3 in their last poll and Cruz won by 2.6. Every other poll had Cruz ahead by way more than that. I won't lie, I think it's pointless to just base polling off of "oh they got it right before". I don't like Nate Silver and 538, they definitely got a lot wrong in 2016. Rasmussen got 2016 right but they're a notoriously awful metric, same with Trafalgar. Being right on something doesn't make you better, it's just results based analysis. I'm not quite as hopeful on Texas flipping just yet. I think enough of the polls favor Trump that he should coast to a small margin of victory. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45847 Posts
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-garden-state-parkway-new-jersey-2020-maga-trucks-b1509844.html?fbclid=IwAR2Z8fLiGeP-EqxllbfPOTzvI16QndnxIJSOn2jk8YvPdnmxg44B9kKU6L0 | ||
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On November 02 2020 09:31 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: In my state of New Jersey, Trump supporters are purposely blocking highways to try and stop voters from getting through. If Trump supporters are even trying to suppress voters in a true-blue state like NJ, imagine what they're doing in swing states to try to rig the election. We can't let these assholes win again. VOTE. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-garden-state-parkway-new-jersey-2020-maga-trucks-b1509844.html?fbclid=IwAR2Z8fLiGeP-EqxllbfPOTzvI16QndnxIJSOn2jk8YvPdnmxg44B9kKU6L0 Ugh so disgusting. Hope these people get arrested. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9297 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23930 Posts
On November 02 2020 09:45 Starlightsun wrote: Ugh so disgusting. Hope these people get arrested. I think people don't quite grasp the practical implications of police overwhelmingly supporting Trump. New Jersey’s largest police union has endorsed President Donald Trump for re-election www.nj.com New Jersey’s second-largest police union joined every other Fraternal Order of Police group in the country to endorse President Donald Trump for re-election Friday. www.nj.com | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 02 2020 09:42 NrG.Bamboo wrote: So, realistically, when should we have a result for the election (outside of recount stuff?) Since states have their own rules on this, what's the latest date in which ballots will still be counted? There's a couple 538 breakdowns on this; the best non-video one is here (regardless of whether you believe their model, they have put a lot of work into knowing what states close when and how). From a "what's the real final national vote total" it will be a while. But, ultimately, only ~10 states matter from an electoral perspective, so we can know much sooner than that. Depending on the margins in specific states and who wins them, we could know as early as Tuesday night. For example, North Carolina has been tallying their early/main-in votes, so there won't be much vote outstanding even early on election night; if it's a 2% Biden victory, it might not be call-able, but if the reality is more like 4-5% it would functionally end Trump's chances. Florida might also be callable around 8PM, and would similarly be a huge loss for Trump. On the other hand, if Trump wins Georgia/North Carolina/Florida and it really comes down to the wire in PA (meaning the polls are off by ~5 points), then it could be a looooong time. This is all assuming that Trump and the GOP's insane ideas that the final counts on election night should determine the winner get put in the trash can where they belong. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32747 Posts
On November 02 2020 09:42 NrG.Bamboo wrote: So, realistically, when should we have a result for the election (outside of recount stuff?) Since states have their own rules on this, what's the latest date in which ballots will still be counted? Overall the Sun Belt/Southern battlegrounds are expected to report fairly quickly after the polls close because they tally their early ballots before Election Day so I'd keep a close eye on: Florida: 9-10 PM Arizona: Shortly after 10 PM EST Georgia: Either shortly after polls close at 7 PM EST, or in a close race, Wed or Thurs North Carolina: About 80% of the votes are expected to be counted by 7:30 PM Texas: Should be known by the end of the day https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ I believe if even one of those states tip into Biden's favour, it's an indicator that Biden is very likely to win, possibly in a landslide. If instead Trump wins them all, it will all depend on an agonizing few days for the Midwest and Rust Belt to report their results by around Thursday to Friday. A loss of all five of those gives Biden a very complicated and winding path to victory with Nevada and Pennsylvania under serious threat based on the scenario I'm playing around with here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#AZ:1,GA:1,NC:1,FL:1,TX:1 I've also read that you can gauge the general feel of the race depending on how safe states are reporting. If say, Virginia isn't announcing their results shortly after polls close despite being seen as a safe Democratic state, Biden may have a serious problem. The same applies to a ruby red state like Indiana, except a problem for Trump. | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On November 02 2020 09:51 Sent. wrote: The article doesn't say they're blocking the highways to stop people from voting. Why make such claim when what they're doing is already something bad? Because why else would they be doing it right now? They block access, they block turnout. It's not a leap. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On November 02 2020 11:07 NewSunshine wrote: Because why else would they be doing it right now? They block access, they block turnout. It's not a leap. No I'm sure the timing is a coincidence. It must be, right? Also, happy cake day. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45847 Posts
On November 02 2020 11:41 iamthedave wrote: No I'm sure the timing is a coincidence. It must be, right? Also, happy cake day. NY too x.x https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/elections/trumps-supporters-block-traffic-on-major-roadways-in-new-york-and-new-jersey.amp.html | ||
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