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On April 20 2020 17:05 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2020 22:49 Simberto wrote:On April 19 2020 22:07 plated.rawr wrote:
I am somewhat amused by the eagerness of the states-rights, dont-thread-on-me-people to throw away their supposedly dear principles of ignoring the federal government and backing states rights, instead urging the federal government to overwrite the powers of the states. In a sane timeline, I'd expect the federal government, in response to the corona pandemic, to be limiting travel in the US, something the states' rights-people would protest as an overreach of the federal government. But in our time line? Pro-states people are marching in the streets shouting for federal intervention to allow them to expose and spread viral disease.
And I'm also amused because states rights proponents are typically against centralized government and all for personal freedoms. Now, however, they're begging the federal government to usurp power from the local governments, as if they didn't realise the split of power between federal government and state governments is a part of the mechanism against the rise of tyrannical monarchism in the US.
At this point, republicans should rebrand themselves monarchists, as all their work is going towards centralizing power under a single person. This basically just exposes what everyone knew anyways. Republicans don't actually care about the things they pretend to care about. States rights are not something they actually care about, states rights were always an excuse to support discrimination against people they don't like or prevent any laws that might make stuff better for poor people. All of these principles they cared so much about disappeared the second their strong orange buffoon was in power. This was very obvious in the past already, now it is even more obvious. It is a really weird, utterly alien way of thinking that rational people simply cannot deal with, because it is impossible to have an argument with people who simply do not care about facts OR the things they claim to care about. It's infinitely more plausible that people are partisan and don't base their support generally on any principles. This is why you see Democrats pushing for "states rights" now and GOP'ers doing the opposite. Gee, what's the common denominator for these trends when parties flip and flop. I wonder...maybe it has something to do with who is in power. Naw, can't be that, it's the other thing.
This is not a good example of people being partisan because unlike conservatives liberals are not afraid to just state their moral position. Your opponents don't go "Oh, I'd love to do this, this seems very moral; unfortunately I love the federal government, which means I can't support it being implemented" in the same way that the conservatives did go "Oh, this is not about defending this immoral practice, it's just about defending states' rights, something that I care very deeply about."
See you have introduced the principle as being important, so you're the ones who are stuck with it. The other side was just talking about slavery, or abortion, so if suddenly states' rights are good for another one of their goals (for example, not dying in a pandemic based on incompetent leadership by a narcissistic moron), they get to take that stance without being hypocritical.
For Abrams, in the meantime she backed Bloomberg so I wouldn't get my hopes up when it comes to her bringing progressives along with her.
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From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year.
Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here.
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Yea I'm not looking forward to the billions in corporate bail out money the Republicans are sure to sign on for the oil industry.
We've apparently got billions to bail out horrible companies like the airlines and oil companies but we can't afford social security or even food stamps and have to cut that. I'll never understand the "logic" behind that crap.
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Surprised to see protests against quarantine restrictions in my state. In the brief interviews on the news the protesters are saying basically "the state is taking away our rights!" I'm assuming they mean their right to go around and behave as if there isn't currently a pandemic. How would you guys respond to their argument?
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On April 21 2020 02:10 Starlightsun wrote:
Surprised to see protests against quarantine restrictions in my state. In the brief interviews on the news the protesters are saying basically "the state is taking away our rights!" I'm assuming they mean their right to go around and behave as if there isn't currently a pandemic. How would you guys respond to their argument?
Pretty standard behavior in the US to fail to see when a restriction on freedom is necessary for the common good. It's 100% going to make things worse, but it's probably inevitable.
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On April 21 2020 01:29 LegalLord wrote:From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year. Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here.
The low is now 5$. It's not going well ! Hopefully it rebounds at least a little
edit : sorry. 2.5.
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On April 21 2020 02:10 Starlightsun wrote:
Surprised to see protests against quarantine restrictions in my state. In the brief interviews on the news the protesters are saying basically "the state is taking away our rights!" I'm assuming they mean their right to go around and behave as if there isn't currently a pandemic. How would you guys respond to their argument?
Aren't those people a very tiny minority? If yes, I would just ignore them. We're constantly barraged with pandemic related news. If that didn't convince those people that some rights needs to be temporarily limited, arguing with them is a waste of time.
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On April 21 2020 02:43 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2020 02:10 Starlightsun wrote:
Surprised to see protests against quarantine restrictions in my state. In the brief interviews on the news the protesters are saying basically "the state is taking away our rights!" I'm assuming they mean their right to go around and behave as if there isn't currently a pandemic. How would you guys respond to their argument? Aren't those people a very tiny minority? If yes, I would just ignore them. We're constantly barraged with pandemic related news. If that didn't convince those people that some rights needs to be temporarily limited, arguing with them is a waste of time.
a tiny minority getting a disproportionate amount of media coverage by right wing media.
Business as usual in the United States.
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On April 21 2020 02:36 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2020 01:29 LegalLord wrote:From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year. Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here. The low is now 5$. It's not going well ! Hopefully it rebounds at least a little edit : sorry. 2.5.
Well it's clearly not going to hold that low forever. Sooner or later supply is going to plummet, some large number of oil producers (hopefully most of the shale market) will go bankrupt and shut down production, and demand will either bounce back or rebalance at a new normal (probably $50 or so with some reduced capacity).
These prices clearly won't hold for long, but hopefully long enough to put some shale out of business!
Edit: And for all practical purposes, prices have reached 0. Nice.
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This is probably how democracy is gonna end in the states. Just like in Hungary, one party will make it impossible for the other one to ever win again.
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On April 21 2020 02:10 Starlightsun wrote:
Surprised to see protests against quarantine restrictions in my state. In the brief interviews on the news the protesters are saying basically "the state is taking away our rights!" I'm assuming they mean their right to go around and behave as if there isn't currently a pandemic. How would you guys respond to their argument?
I mean take a look at New York as an example of how bad it could be, and that it could be a lot worse than that. ~0.1% of the people in New York have died so far of covid. Probably several times that number will have long term respiratory system damage(there's an article somewhere that I can't find that says heart/liver/lungs etc. sustain permanent damage even after "recovering"). I wouldn't be surprised if having a severe case of it(~10-20% chance) takes years off even a healthy adult's expected lifespan.
At 0.1% everybody has a friend who knows somebody who has died, and everybody will know people who have had covid. By 0.2-0.3%(probably where the final death toll will end), everybody will know somebody, or several people who have passed away.
Honestly, I can understand that people want to be outside and to go hang out with their friends, but when the consequences are so incredibly dire(I have parents that are in at risk range, and know dozens of others who are at risk).
In places that have done good tracking, and have low reported cases, I'm in favor of relaxing restrictions slowly(a rule every couple weeks).
In places where testing is inadequate (high positive rate is reported, high likelihood of untracked community spread), if anything restrictions should be tightened because it's assuredly spreading exponentially.
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REDMAP is pretty terrible. I'm glad for the states that have attempted to address gerrymandering though non-partisan commissions taking it out of the hands of the legislature. It atleast cuts down on the obvious gerrymandering that REDMAP promoted.
That sort of gaming polotics only brings a tit for tat response.
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The 6th Circuit recently upheld Michigan’s independent redistricting commission on a challenge brought by Michigan Republicans, so there’s reason to hope things could get better on that front. Even the arch conservative on the three judge panel concurred in the ruling.
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On April 21 2020 03:03 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2020 02:36 Nouar wrote:On April 21 2020 01:29 LegalLord wrote:From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year. Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here. The low is now 5$. It's not going well ! Hopefully it rebounds at least a little edit : sorry. 2.5. Well it's clearly not going to hold that low forever. Sooner or later supply is going to plummet, some large number of oil producers (hopefully most of the shale market) will go bankrupt and shut down production, and demand will either bounce back or rebalance at a new normal (probably $50 or so with some reduced capacity). These prices clearly won't hold for long, but hopefully long enough to put some shale out of business! Edit: And for all practical purposes, prices have reached 0. Nice.
Nah. -36$. Time to stock up ? :D I don't even understand markets anymore I guess...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-price-crashes-record-low
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On April 21 2020 04:07 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2020 03:03 LegalLord wrote:On April 21 2020 02:36 Nouar wrote:On April 21 2020 01:29 LegalLord wrote:From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year. Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here. The low is now 5$. It's not going well ! Hopefully it rebounds at least a little edit : sorry. 2.5. Well it's clearly not going to hold that low forever. Sooner or later supply is going to plummet, some large number of oil producers (hopefully most of the shale market) will go bankrupt and shut down production, and demand will either bounce back or rebalance at a new normal (probably $50 or so with some reduced capacity). These prices clearly won't hold for long, but hopefully long enough to put some shale out of business! Edit: And for all practical purposes, prices have reached 0. Nice. Nah. -36$. Time to stock up ? :D I don't even understand markets anymore I guess... https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-price-crashes-record-low
I'd say it's what happens when you use debt to create fake demand, but who knows.
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On April 21 2020 04:07 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2020 03:03 LegalLord wrote:On April 21 2020 02:36 Nouar wrote:On April 21 2020 01:29 LegalLord wrote:From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year. Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here. The low is now 5$. It's not going well ! Hopefully it rebounds at least a little edit : sorry. 2.5. Well it's clearly not going to hold that low forever. Sooner or later supply is going to plummet, some large number of oil producers (hopefully most of the shale market) will go bankrupt and shut down production, and demand will either bounce back or rebalance at a new normal (probably $50 or so with some reduced capacity). These prices clearly won't hold for long, but hopefully long enough to put some shale out of business! Edit: And for all practical purposes, prices have reached 0. Nice. Nah. -36$. Time to stock up ? :D I don't even understand markets anymore I guess... https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-price-crashes-record-low
Eh. I considered it but all the stable producers aren't trading at a phenomenal discount, all the terrible ones are going to go bankrupt, and cash is more valuable than any meaningful oil investment opportunity right now really. I'm personally not inclined to play the oil markets game right now.
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On April 21 2020 03:03 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2020 02:36 Nouar wrote:On April 21 2020 01:29 LegalLord wrote:From what I hear from the shale side it's an all-out panic right now. Lots of shutdowns and probably bankruptcies abound this year. Sounds like the "magic bullet" shale was hoping for is for tariffs to be placed on Saudi oil. A straight bailout is probably not coming and the US isn't very good at signing on to production cuts a la OPEC. I expect things to just slowly descend into disaster for them from here. The low is now 5$. It's not going well ! Hopefully it rebounds at least a little edit : sorry. 2.5. Well it's clearly not going to hold that low forever. Sooner or later supply is going to plummet, some large number of oil producers (hopefully most of the shale market) will go bankrupt and shut down production, and demand will either bounce back or rebalance at a new normal (probably $50 or so with some reduced capacity). These prices clearly won't hold for long, but hopefully long enough to put some shale out of business! Edit: And for all practical purposes, prices have reached 0. Nice.
Futures on a big negative... I highly doubt that is a realistic pricing.
Though I understand it means there is such a big surplus that delivery can't be taken. Thus they want to pay people to get it somewhere else instead of getting sued for failure to receive delivery. Or something similar, I don't really understand this sphere.
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Because relinquishing influence by not appointing representatives, as the Trump admin has done for a lot of organisations (if they couldn't just outright block it like to WTO) or countries, or even continents, like Africa, and then complaining that other countries have influence, is just... sad. I really hope one day there will be a reckoning (but there never is for past presidents, because "damage to the country"...)
In this case, the admin has renominated a guy twice, so they will be able to deflect the blame, but McConnell has not received a confirmation vote, though that doctor would probably get bipartisan approval due to his credentials. Probably too busy with appointing judges.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years
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EPT
