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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On March 25 2020 04:55 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 04:17 Sermokala wrote:On March 25 2020 04:08 Vivax wrote:On March 25 2020 02:42 Sermokala wrote:On March 25 2020 01:32 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
I have a question regarding American politics.
So a part of the general economic crash right now is the oil price being dumpstered by Saudi Arabia and Russia which crippled American oil producers who had heavy debt after massive investment.
I haven't seen much discussion about this. At the time, at least to me, the timing seemed to be Russia deciding to kick the US in the balls while they were down with Corona. And then SA responded with actions that of course hurts Russia but also just so happens to really punish their closest "ally".
It seems US media and politicians just accepted this. Maybe there wasn't that much to do about it but even if Russia would gain from SA not flooding the market during a sharp decline in consumption it is a pretty shit timing from a supposedly close ally. The US has accepted it because they literally don't have to care about it. Its certainly a boom market but the entire boom has been built on the backs of debt to investment groups. But what is all that debt built on? The US dollar. If the oil being traded by the Saudis increases its still oil being traded by dollars. That means debt is cheap as dirt and every investment group is happy to hold onto the debt they have for when the market turns around and the oil fields can (and they will beacuse its oil) produce again. Welcome to the Petrodollar. Debt is never cheap. It's the definition of kicking a can down the road that keeps getting bigger. If you pay off yours, someone else you made money from won't be able to. All it does during bailout bonanza is enrich those who already made enough money. As for oil, the loans you give to other nations as a producer are something they have to pay the producers industry margin off with higher taxes on it, is how I read this chart. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/333.htmSo a lower oil price begets more sovereign debt to cover for lost tax income, reduces industry profit margins, and is generally undesirable to the western bloc. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of debt and currency in the modern world. Yes you are paying interest on those loans but as long as you have a profit margin above the cost of those loans as a result of taking those loans then the loans are free money you have made from taking them out. The investment groups (admittedly I may be biased because my retirement is in one of these groups) has assets on the ground in the form of these oil drills and the land the oil is on. Keeping on and taking more debt with the intent to pay off those debts once the price of oil comes back up is a smart move when you're thinking 5-10 years out. The loans aren't for other nations they are for our nation. They don't take out loans from our nation to buy and sell oil they buy and sell dollars to buy and sell our oil. that increases the value of the dollar and increases the volume of dollars in the market thus somehow (I'm not a finance expert so I can't explain the exact functions) making dollars worth a lot more against other currencies. Especially with the fed lowering the interest rate to zero debt is basically free at this moment when what you are financing with that debt is literally oil. The "western bloc" doesn't like less oil prices as much as any oil producer doesn't like oil prices. But the thing America won in the cold war was the petrodollar so things work differently for us then the rest of the world. Its truely something that is american exceptionalism that we can treat debt like its just a number. I guess we'll see how it plays out. Russia said they don't want the shale industry in business, but the reasons could as well be other ones. And I don't think OPEC would strike at the oil price for no good reason. Dumping commodities into the market is an expensive and risky play. I also wouldn't be so quick to say that the oil trade is the main reason for a strong dollar. Any demand for metals or US treasuries can drive its price up, along with domestic and foreign USD denominated debt. For individuals though, those are really nice prices to get a fill somehow. I keep wondering if I can purchase futures at my local heating oil dealer lol. Pay now, deliver later.
Shale oil in the US is no different than Bing hoping Google would close down. SA has the means to shutdown US Shale unlike Bing and Google. People will still need a search engine and if the biggest market share suddenly disappears that demand just goes somewhere else. The key weakness of shale is that the extractions costs of the US, SA, and Russia are vastly different. SA can make a profit still when oil is selling at $25 a barrel. I don't know the exact numbers, but US Shale is only profitable above 40 or something like that. This hurts SA budget wise as they're not making nearly as much money as they were, but the US literally loses money extracting oil at the current price so they'll be forced to shutdown production. I don't think Russia and SA have some grand conspiracy. This hurts all three countries, it just hurts Russia and the US more than SA and they're positioning themselves to be in a much better position than today six months from now.
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The US president has promised to "reopen [the] country very soon."
Trump promises to reopen country 'very soon,' will prohibit hoarding of medical supplieshttps://www.fox17online.com/news/coronavirus/trump-promises-to-reopen-country-very-soon-will-prohibit-hoarding-of-medical-suppliesTrump added that "We're giving the governors a lot of leeway." Trump said on Monday that reopening sections of the economy will take weeks and not months. "We can do both at the same time," Trump said about reopening the economy and preventing the spread of coronavirus. As part of fighting the virus, Trump boasted about several drugs that are being shipped to the states, with the hope they can be used to treat coronavirus patients. These drugs however, as of Monday, are still early in the testing phase and have not been approved by the FDA as a treatment for coronavirus.
Today on Tuesday 24 March, speaking to a Fox News anchor the US president stated that "Easter is a very special day" for him, implying that 12 April is when he will try to reduce quarantine measures and have businesses reopened across the country, presumably by ranting on Twitter over "do-nothing governors (et al.)" who are "destroying the American economy" based on his past behaviour.
He goes on to say "wouldn't it be great to have all the churches full? [...] So I think Easter Sunday, and you'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it would be a beautiful time. And it's just about the timeline that I think is right."
Source: Fox News YouTube video (starting @ 7:55)
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On one hand, it is extremely worrying that the "wartime President" has bored with the talk of doctors and turned to the advice of his favorite monied fanbase, but on the other, the abject stupidity of cutting the already mostly inadequate measures short will only become clearer as the days wear on. There's no way that delusion holds through Easter.
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New levels of stupid right there...
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On March 25 2020 07:37 Starlightsun wrote:
New levels of stupid right there...
I don't think it is stupidity as much as a complete lack of empathy and betting on the American people's valuation of their own economic security over the lives of vulnerable people.
I think the real danger is that it's a smart bet.
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He could walk into most nursing homes and be the stupidest, most confident person in there.
The number of infected is fully exponential and uncontrolled at this point, and he's there saying it'll be fine. Only some states have locked down, and infection/hospitalization/death rates lag any measures taken to stop it by about 2 weeks. The number of detected infected in the US has increased tenfold in about 10 days, mostly due to increased testing. It's going to be a brutal wakeup when a couple of weeks from now the true magnitude of the problem appears.
Wouldn't be surprised at this point if a double digit proportion of the US becomes infected at this point. It's going to be a staggering number of deaths between poor healthcare and atrocious handling of the situation.
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On March 25 2020 07:43 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 07:37 Starlightsun wrote:
New levels of stupid right there... I don't think it is stupidity as much as a complete lack of empathy and betting on the American people's valuation of their own economic security over the lives of vulnerable people. I think the real danger is that it's a smart bet.
It's not a smart bet for Republicans when one accounts for the damage lax coronavirus measures will do to the demographic group that's both key to GOP electoral success and already dwindling, pandemic notwithstanding. Even if the Republicans managed to weather the shocking COVID-19 events yet to unfold, they may completely lose once strong electoral strongholds in places like Texas and Florida.
As an aside, I'd guess Tom Barrack is one of parties responsible for Trump's shift, he stands to lose a ton given that he's basically one of the biggest commercial landlords in the world.
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On March 25 2020 07:53 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 07:43 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 25 2020 07:37 Starlightsun wrote:
New levels of stupid right there... I don't think it is stupidity as much as a complete lack of empathy and betting on the American people's valuation of their own economic security over the lives of vulnerable people. I think the real danger is that it's a smart bet. It's not a smart bet for Republicans when one accounts for the damage lax coronavirus measures will do to the demographic group that's both key to GOP electoral success and already dwindling, pandemic notwithstanding. Even if the Republicans managed to weather the shocking COVID-19 events yet to unfold, they may completely lose once strong electoral strongholds in places like Texas and Florida. As an aside, I'd guess Tom Barrack is one of parties responsible for Trump's shift, he stands to lose a ton given that he's basically one of the biggest commercial landlords in the world.
Probably not, but that's never been Trump's concern. Basically takes a perfect storm of several factors to make replacing a Republican with someone that isn't more Trumpian realistic as well. I could see it having some marginal impact in states where both parties ride the center and that becomes more untenable for the Republican than the Democrat though.
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On March 25 2020 07:43 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 07:37 Starlightsun wrote:
New levels of stupid right there... I don't think it is stupidity as much as a complete lack of empathy and betting on the American people's valuation of their own economic security over the lives of vulnerable people. I think the real danger is that it's a smart bet.
I guess you're referring to this clip where the Texas lieutenant governor explains that it's time for the vulnerable people to make the sacrifice and just die already?
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On March 25 2020 08:28 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 07:43 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 25 2020 07:37 Starlightsun wrote:
New levels of stupid right there... I don't think it is stupidity as much as a complete lack of empathy and betting on the American people's valuation of their own economic security over the lives of vulnerable people. I think the real danger is that it's a smart bet. I guess you're referring to this clip where the Texas lieutenant governor explains that it's time for the vulnerable people to make the sacrifice and just die already? https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050
I didn't expect them to already be saying the quiet part loud, but yeah, like that. It's not a stupid vs smart thing, it's a worldview thing. It's a worldview that isn't bound by partisan lines either.
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Its past time this moron is removed from office. If people are dying by the hundreds to the low thousands daily in 1-2 weeks its going to be hard for even republicans to justify keeping this idiot.
I knew a lot of republicans lacked empathy and were sociopaths but this will directly impact their families and they still wont give a fuck until they cant get a ventilator themselves
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There's just a *little* problem with that "realpolitik" approach: it assumes that a double digits number of sick people, and death toll on the hundreds of thousands to millions won't crash your economy just as hard, if not harder, than a lockdown right now to flatten the curve.
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On March 25 2020 09:00 Acrofales wrote:
There's just a *little* problem with that "realpolitik" approach: it assumes that a double digits number of sick people, and death toll on the hundreds of thousands to millions won't crash your economy just as hard, if not harder, than a lockdown right now to flatten the curve.
The people most likely to be dying are the most expensive to keep alive outside of this pandemic so I'm not sure the math is so obvious if people keep showing up to work. (EDIT: Should mention billionaires are actually the most expensive)
The battle line is "will you work while they die". It's an easy choice for most people in the US when the death and suffering is relegated to far away countries, low-income neighborhoods, and people who made "poor personal choices" or whatever.
The gamble is that it being primarily older people won't be a breaking point. Several factors at play but some arguments already floated to get there are:
1. They are Trump/Biden voters so good riddance.
2. Gotta eat/keep my home
3. I like my job and don't want to lose it (and risk not finding another)
4. This is what they (the dying people) want us to do
You'll notice those arguments aren't exclusive to Republicans.
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Whats going to happen is people with treatable illnesses will die(car accident, heart attack, stroke, etc) because the hospitals are full. That will start to get peoples attention.
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On March 25 2020 08:59 Sadist wrote:
Its past time this moron is removed from office. If people are dying by the hundreds to the low thousands daily in 1-2 weeks its going to be hard for even republicans to justify keeping this idiot.
I knew a lot of republicans lacked empathy and were sociopaths but this will directly impact their families and they still wont give a fuck until they cant get a ventilator themselves
47% of America think Trump is handling the situation well. I believe his popularity numbers are actually going up right now.
If people are dying in the hundreds to low thousands but refuse to blame the man heading the administration definitely responsible for not minimising the damage... if you're a politician, what actual difference does it make?
The chances of Trump getting re-elected is going up and up (considering the majority of Presidents are two-termers and all)..
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We are about to find out when and where it starts to make a difference, and if I were making morbid bets, I'd be betting on moderate to severe rather than moderate and light.
The chances of Trump's reelection are totally dislocated from the here and now. They are the product of tomorrows until the election, that's how this pandemic is playing out.
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On March 25 2020 09:50 farvacola wrote:
We are about to find out when and where it starts to make a difference, and if I were taking morbid bets, I'd be betting on moderate to severe rather than moderate and light.
The chances of Trump's reelection are totally dislocated from the here and now. They are the product of tomorrow's until the election, that's how this pandemic is playing out.
I just hope those who are/were on the fence about voting for Biden or Bernie, or now all in on voting blue no matter who...
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Another example of that type of thought via Glenn Beck.
It would be way better for the economy to put everything on pause for two months. Starting things back up way too soon then inevitably having to stop it is the only way to do more damage than no stopping at all.
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EPT
