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On February 04 2020 08:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 08:24 Nebuchad wrote:
This can't be real can it? No Biden? It is just one particular caucus. There was one in a theater full of people over 60 where it was similar with the groups being Biden and Klob (and a viable Sanders).
Yeah I looked it up, seems like it was a caucus for a university or something, I guess that makes a lot of sense then
Edit: probably caucus that was at the university not caucus for the university, why would they have a caucus for a university lol
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Pretty meaningless for the overall contest I think much like this Florida result
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On February 04 2020 08:30 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 08:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 08:24 Nebuchad wrote:
This can't be real can it? No Biden? It is just one particular caucus. There was one in a theater full of people over 60 where it was similar with the groups being Biden and Klob (and a viable Sanders). Yeah I looked it up, seems like it was a caucus for a university or something, I guess that makes a lot of sense then
Basically the one for people in Des Moines that had work/childcare/other considerations where this time was more accessible.
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I wouldn't say meaningless. It shows Biden, Klob, and Buttigieg's support among older and more affluent voters is quite real. That Sanders needs younger (under 50) and new voters to participate to outperform them.
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I have no problem believing that Iowa snowbirds like a candidate like Klobuchar, that makes a certain kind of poetic sense lol
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define: iowa snowbird
PNW here, dunno your words.
So biden is somewhere between 0 and 33. Great. Caucuses, why do I even bother following you.
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On February 04 2020 08:36 GreenHorizons wrote:I wouldn't say meaningless. It shows Biden, Klob, and Buttigieg's support among older and more affluent voters is quite real. That Sanders needs younger (under 50) and new voters to participate to outperform them.
True although Buttigieg is a bit more balanced than Biden or Sanders
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP435SdVUAEQvgg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
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On February 04 2020 08:42 Mohdoo wrote:
define: iowa snowbird
PNW here, dunno your words.
So biden is somewhere between 0 and 33. Great. Caucuses, why do I even bother following you.
People that live in Florida during the winter months and come back home when it’s nice. We don’t need these terms cause our weather is awesome 
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"Snowbird" is a Midwestern/NE/Plains States term for someone who travels to and lives somewhere warmer during the cold months. They tend to be older, and they represent a significant voting bloc in their home states and their favored winter destination, usually Florida or Arizona. Many also represent a dying breed of blue collar worker who lived during an era in which a line worker earned enough to own two homes as the sole bread winner.
Snowbirds as a bellweather demographic is a pretty interesting topic, they are dwindling, that much I know.
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On February 04 2020 08:49 farvacola wrote:
"Snowbird" is a Midwestern/NE/Plains States term for someone who travels to and lives somewhere warmer during the cold months. They tend to be older, and they represent a significant voting bloc in their home states and their favored winter destination, usually Florida or Arizona. Many also represent a dying breed of blue collar worker who lived during an era in which a line worker earned enough to own two homes as the sole bread winner.
Snowbirds as a bellweather demographic is a pretty interesting topic, they are dwindling, that much I know.
Ah, interesting. Sounds like democrats that post anti-millennial memes on facebook and think gays are barely ok.
On February 04 2020 08:45 BlueBird. wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 08:42 Mohdoo wrote:
define: iowa snowbird
PNW here, dunno your words.
So biden is somewhere between 0 and 33. Great. Caucuses, why do I even bother following you. People that live in Florida during the winter months and come back home when it’s nice. We don’t need these terms cause our weather is awesome
Yeah every time I leave Oregon, I am reminded Oregon is #1.
Edit: Washington is 2nd, but definitely 2nd.
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Attitudes towards localities, once developed beyond a analysis of a collection of metrics, are fundamentally shaped by time and circumstance such that there is not much objective ground to stand on. Folks have all sorts of reasons for liking one place over another, and that tends to hold even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. One big dynamic at play there is how individuals develop a sense of belongedness to a place, which is a process that I have found to be far more complicated than it seems at first glance. (Keeping stuff like this mind helps one understand silly rituals like the Iowa caucus a bit more imo)
Speaking personally, despite enjoying my 2 years outside Seattle, I would only consider living on the West Coast if there were very compelling professional reasons. But I can definitely understand why someone would never want to leave, though methinks the consequences of climate change may change the analysis :D
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On February 04 2020 09:25 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 08:53 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 08:49 farvacola wrote:
"Snowbird" is a Midwestern/NE/Plains States term for someone who travels to and lives somewhere warmer during the cold months. They tend to be older, and they represent a significant voting bloc in their home states and their favored winter destination, usually Florida or Arizona. Many also represent a dying breed of blue collar worker who lived during an era in which a line worker earned enough to own two homes as the sole bread winner.
Snowbirds as a bellweather demographic is a pretty interesting topic, they are dwindling, that much I know. Ah, interesting. Sounds like democrats that post anti-millennial memes on facebook and think gays are barely ok. On February 04 2020 08:45 BlueBird. wrote:On February 04 2020 08:42 Mohdoo wrote:
define: iowa snowbird
PNW here, dunno your words.
So biden is somewhere between 0 and 33. Great. Caucuses, why do I even bother following you. People that live in Florida during the winter months and come back home when it’s nice. We don’t need these terms cause our weather is awesome Yeah every time I leave Oregon, I am reminded Oregon is #1. Edit: Washington is 2nd, but definitely 2nd. Many of my parents friends who are snowbirds and American summer in Oregon, I think it is called Bend? So they also exist near you but if you don't know many people over the age of 65 and likely over 70 you may not cross paths with them. More Canadian's did it because during the crash of 08 not only was the property cheap but our dollars were worth 1.15 american. Where as now it is 1- .75 It was pretty interesting that many older Canadians who wouldn't normally be able too, were able too. Now many are selling because the Dollar went back and Health insurance continues to rise.
yeah if someone bought property in bend 10 years ago, they are in a great position.
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Early entrance polling showing 20% of caucus goers under 30 bodes very well for Sanders.
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On February 04 2020 10:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Early entrance polling showing 20% of caucus goers under 30 bodes very well for Sanders.
That's significantly above average isn't it?
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On February 04 2020 10:14 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 10:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Early entrance polling showing 20% of caucus goers under 30 bodes very well for Sanders. That's significantly above average isn't it?
2 points higher than last time but more older voters too.
Sanders main advantage is that he'll hit viability more consistently than any other candidate based on the ones I've seen so far.
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Things looking bad for Biden at the moment but i dont think there is any official results.
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Apparently Pete is level with Sanders on first preference in the entrance poll
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Pete first and Bernie second probably wouldn't be dramatic. Would still hope that Bernie can pull this though.
Biden imploding is the most notable thing either way.
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On February 04 2020 04:31 Kreuger wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 04:28 BigFan wrote:
Can someone explain how Iowa is important? If it's too much to explain, maybe an article that explains which states are important and how they lead to deciding who the best candidate is. Dont have a article explaining in detail, but since 1996 every candidate that has won in Iowa has been the presidential candidate later on. So I guess its a mix of momentum and some superstition :p article: https://people.howstuffworks.com/iowa-caucus.htm
This is not true.
Ted Cruz won in 2016 Republican. Donald Trump won the republican nomination and presidency.
Rick Santorum won in 2012 Republican. Mitt Romney won the republican nomination.
Mike Huckabee won in 2008 Republican. John McCain won the republican nomination.
If you only look at Democrats, then strangely enough, yes, every candidate that won Iowa ended up winning the nomination since 1992 when Tom Harkin had 76.5% to Bill Clinton's 2.8%, but Bill won the nomination eventually.
The real importance of Iowa is that it helps the winner raise more money. People don't want to give money to someone who isn't going to win because the money will be wasted. If you can list yourself as the leading candidate, then people will be more willing to throw money your way to back the winner.
On February 04 2020 03:51 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 02:16 IgnE wrote:
Didn’t Bernie win Iowa last year vs Hillary only to eventually lose? How important is Iowa, really? A big difference between last year is that last year they could spin the story that Hillary had +200 delegates on Bernie even right after Iowa (which is only ~50 delegates) because of the super delegates. With the super delegates (mostly) gone this time around, the person actually winning the primaries will be ahead rather than the narrative being shaped by a large group of declared super delegates. So for all of Feb (after NH) even though Sander's insurgent campaign had secured more pledged delegates than Clinton, Clinton was stated as ahead in a commanding position and backing Bernie was backing a massive underdog. Which is not wrong given super delegates, but hypothetically if the narrative was more balanced (no superdelegates) then later primaries may have played out differently.
This isn't quite right either. The whole time, it was said that if Bernie won the majority of delegates that most super delegates would move over to him and not overturn the democratic process. It was really just Bernie bullshit conspiracy theories about how the man was holding him down. Clinton narrowly won Iowa, lost New Hampshire, but then came right back and won Nevada and South Carolina and was ahead for the rest of the race. After Super Tuesday, it was all but over. A lot of candidates would have simply dropped out at that point, but Bernie stuck around, took money from the poor and the middle class and gave it to the rich corporations for a bit of airtime. Good guy Bernie. He actually raised and spent more money than Clinton did during the primary. At least we found out that money doesn't buy elections.
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EPT
