|
Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
On February 04 2020 04:28 BigFan wrote:
Can someone explain how Iowa is important? If it's too much to explain, maybe an article that explains which states are important and how they lead to deciding who the best candidate is.
Its important because it is first and it sets up a momentum into the next state which then leads on to the next one and so on. In terms of its actual vote % affect on who wins it is minuscule.
|
On February 04 2020 02:16 IgnE wrote:
Didn’t Bernie win Iowa last year vs Hillary only to eventually lose? How important is Iowa, really?
Bernie lost Iowa in 2016.
|
On February 04 2020 05:34 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 02:16 IgnE wrote:
Didn’t Bernie win Iowa last year vs Hillary only to eventually lose? How important is Iowa, really? Bernie lost Iowa in 2016.
It seems bad to reduce the primaries to all-or-nothing. Bernie had 2 less pledged delegates (21 vs 23) than Clinton from Iowa, so basically a very slight loss.
It's not the electoral college, the closeness of the results matters.
|
On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere.
He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others.
There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg.
|
On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg.
In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though.
|
On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though.
What is a "good result" to you in this context?
|
On February 04 2020 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though. What is a "good result" to you in this context?
At least 2nd place ahead of Biden and Warren
|
So.. When do you start counting?
|
On February 04 2020 07:22 Velr wrote:
So.. When do you start counting?
Results have already started coming in. The ones I've seen have Bernie winning and mostly splits for the rest but I'm sure my feed is biased in that way.
|
Northern Ireland26327 Posts
On February 04 2020 04:29 Broetchenholer wrote:This thread started shitting on her way before that big scandal. Most of this thread seem to have loved the fact that now they finally had the smoking gun they assumed before was there. It's just an observation and it does not need to be true, I can't read minds.  I definitely hope you guys finally move socially to the left and get more quality of life for your poorer population. And I would especially love to see grumpy grandpa on the international stage yelling at Putin!
I was aware of Warren way, way back when (well, as a proportion of my time on this earth, before Bernie by a distance and have always been rather a fan. She’s got a pretty solid record, both in terms of actions and rhetoric in areas I class as very important.
She doesn’t quite stir my soul now like Comrade Bernie but a decent option if one considers alternatives.
I did feel the whole Bernie sexism row was just horribly handled though whatever way one looks at it, morally or pragmatically.
|
On February 04 2020 07:12 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though. What is a "good result" to you in this context? At least 2nd place ahead of Biden and Warren
Doing well in Iowa isn't going to make a difference for Buttigieg or Warren. Buttigieg is polling nationally even lower than Bloomberg, and it's because Buttigieg only has support in states that are almost entirely white (and still losing a bunch of them, like in New Hampshire). Warren has been losing steam too. Even if Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and Warren all win delegates in Iowa, it's still going to be a Sanders vs. Biden race. Here are the polling numbers for the 4 states before Super Tuesday (compiled by RealClearPolitics).
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/7K2To8D.jpg)
|
On February 04 2020 07:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 07:12 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though. What is a "good result" to you in this context? At least 2nd place ahead of Biden and Warren Doing well in Iowa isn't going to make a difference for Buttigieg or Warren. Buttigieg is polling nationally even lower than Bloomberg, and it's because Buttigieg only has support in states that are almost entirely white (and still losing a bunch of them, like in New Hampshire). Warren has been losing steam too. Even if Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and Warren all win delegates in Iowa, it's still going to be a Sanders vs. Biden race. Here are the polling numbers for the 4 states before Super Tuesday (compiled by RealClearPolitics).
Noone has even 30% nationally yet, I dont think you can discount Buttigieg or Warren if they pick up momentum from winning Iowa or New Hampshire, fivethirtyeight put Buttigieg at 1/4 chance to win the nomination if he wins Iowa and Warren even greater.
|
Since Rush Limbaugh has been diagnosed with lung cancer, I'd like to remind people that the question of whether or not cigarettes are harmful used to be a right vs left thing.
We often lose track of fights that have already been settled. Don't forget. Shame them.
|
On February 04 2020 07:45 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 07:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 04 2020 07:12 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though. What is a "good result" to you in this context? At least 2nd place ahead of Biden and Warren Doing well in Iowa isn't going to make a difference for Buttigieg or Warren. Buttigieg is polling nationally even lower than Bloomberg, and it's because Buttigieg only has support in states that are almost entirely white (and still losing a bunch of them, like in New Hampshire). Warren has been losing steam too. Even if Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and Warren all win delegates in Iowa, it's still going to be a Sanders vs. Biden race. Here are the polling numbers for the 4 states before Super Tuesday (compiled by RealClearPolitics). Noone has even 30% nationally yet, I dont think you can discount Buttigieg or Warren if they pick up momentum from winning Iowa or New Hampshire, fivethirtyeight put Buttigieg at 1/4 chance to win the nomination if he wins Iowa and Warren even greater.
What's so special about 30%? Couldn't I just arbitrarily point to a level that's already been reached? Also, NH is untouchable for them, if you're talking about "winning" that state. It's going to be mostly Biden's support in the south (like Hillary in 2016) vs. a probably-even-stronger-than-2016 showing from Sanders. I mean, obviously, a candidate can quit whenever they want, and I think more moderates hanging around (like Buttigieg and Bloomberg) are more likely to help Sanders than Biden (since the additional moderates are likely to take support from Biden over Sanders), so I'm more than happy to see Buttigieg stay in for a while lol. Warren staying in is a bit of a toss-up in terms of it hurting Sanders or Biden more, I think, because she's between them.
|
On February 04 2020 07:51 Mohdoo wrote:
Since Rush Limbaugh has been diagnosed with lung cancer, I'd like to remind people that the question of whether or not cigarettes are harmful used to be a right vs left thing.
We often lose track of fights that have already been settled. Don't forget. Shame them.
Anyone know if he's got the kind Cuba has a vaccine for?
|
On February 04 2020 07:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 07:45 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 07:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 04 2020 07:12 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:On February 04 2020 01:42 Velr wrote:
Didn't Sanders do better than the polls expected him to do the last time around? Did the polling improve or are we in for another (nice) surprise? Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates. The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete? Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though. What is a "good result" to you in this context? At least 2nd place ahead of Biden and Warren Doing well in Iowa isn't going to make a difference for Buttigieg or Warren. Buttigieg is polling nationally even lower than Bloomberg, and it's because Buttigieg only has support in states that are almost entirely white (and still losing a bunch of them, like in New Hampshire). Warren has been losing steam too. Even if Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and Warren all win delegates in Iowa, it's still going to be a Sanders vs. Biden race. Here are the polling numbers for the 4 states before Super Tuesday (compiled by RealClearPolitics). Noone has even 30% nationally yet, I dont think you can discount Buttigieg or Warren if they pick up momentum from winning Iowa or New Hampshire, fivethirtyeight put Buttigieg at 1/4 chance to win the nomination if he wins Iowa and Warren even greater. What's so special about 30%? Couldn't I just arbitrarily point to a level that's already been reached? Also, NH is untouchable for them, if you're talking about "winning" that state. It's going to be mostly Biden's support in the south (like Hillary in 2016) vs. a probably-even-stronger-than-2016 showing from Sanders. I mean, obviously, a candidate can quit whenever they want, and I think more moderates hanging around (like Buttigieg and Bloomberg) are more likely to help Sanders than Biden (since the additional moderates are likely to take support from Biden over Sanders), so I'm more than happy to see Buttigieg stay in for a while lol. Warren staying in is a bit of a toss-up in terms of it hurting Sanders or Biden more, I think, because she's between them.
Nothing special about 30% just to point out that everyones support is so low because the field is so wide that it could easily shift as it narrows down.
|
On February 04 2020 07:55 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2020 07:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 04 2020 07:45 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 07:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 04 2020 07:12 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 06:57 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 06:39 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 04 2020 04:03 Zaros wrote:On February 04 2020 02:01 Mohdoo wrote:
[quote]
Yes, and with the way caucuses hugely favor enthusiastic voters, Warren and Buttigieg tanking so much recently, the stars are totally aligned for the 14%/14% dream. Bernie could be the only one with Iowa delegates.
The big problem for Pete and Warren is that they have no "market" right now. Why vote for Warren over Bernie? Bernie leading, even nationally with the whole "eLeCtAbLe??" thing shot in the head. Pete? Just a less honest Biden. Pete still going nowhere nationally. Supposedly "pragmatic" "centrists" don't see a reason to back a candidate who isn't actively winning. So why back Pete?
Meanwhile Bernie has the entire left on lockdown. I firmly believe we are about to see Warren and Buttigieg become completely irrelevant in the next week. Pete hasn't fallen below 15% in any polls, has been blitzing Iowa and is a big beneficiary of 2nd choices along with Warren, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with the most delegates at the end of the night due to Sanders piling up votes in the cities but doesn't have the same enthusiasm elsewhere. He hasn't even hit 15% in any national poll or poll outside of Iowa and NH and polling behind Bloomberg in lots of the others. There's no path to clinching outright for Warren or Buttigieg. In a field this big I dont think it matters, if they win Iowa and then that boosted them for New Hampshire that would put them in a good position to rival Biden and Sanders especially as all the people on 1-10% drop out. Bloomberg is only ahead nationally because he has spent $200 million in adds and is uncontested in the other states at the moment, Buttigieg is all in on Iowa and will be going step by step so I could easily see him fighting back as soon as the race moves on, only if he has a good result though. What is a "good result" to you in this context? At least 2nd place ahead of Biden and Warren Doing well in Iowa isn't going to make a difference for Buttigieg or Warren. Buttigieg is polling nationally even lower than Bloomberg, and it's because Buttigieg only has support in states that are almost entirely white (and still losing a bunch of them, like in New Hampshire). Warren has been losing steam too. Even if Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and Warren all win delegates in Iowa, it's still going to be a Sanders vs. Biden race. Here are the polling numbers for the 4 states before Super Tuesday (compiled by RealClearPolitics). Noone has even 30% nationally yet, I dont think you can discount Buttigieg or Warren if they pick up momentum from winning Iowa or New Hampshire, fivethirtyeight put Buttigieg at 1/4 chance to win the nomination if he wins Iowa and Warren even greater. What's so special about 30%? Couldn't I just arbitrarily point to a level that's already been reached? Also, NH is untouchable for them, if you're talking about "winning" that state. It's going to be mostly Biden's support in the south (like Hillary in 2016) vs. a probably-even-stronger-than-2016 showing from Sanders. I mean, obviously, a candidate can quit whenever they want, and I think more moderates hanging around (like Buttigieg and Bloomberg) are more likely to help Sanders than Biden (since the additional moderates are likely to take support from Biden over Sanders), so I'm more than happy to see Buttigieg stay in for a while lol. Warren staying in is a bit of a toss-up in terms of it hurting Sanders or Biden more, I think, because she's between them. Nothing special about 30% just to point out that everyones support is so low because the field is so wide that it could easily shift as it narrows down.
I actually think that being at over 20% is incredibly good, given the sheer number of candidates still left in the race. If there were only like 3-5 candidates, then I think a much higher bar would need to be set. Either way though, I'm excited to see how Iowa plays out!
|
Buttigieg isn't even making viability in a lot of these early caucuses. Including the early Des Moines caucus.
Most of his supporters went to Sanders but Warren got some.
Biden team says it's not going well.
|
This can't be real can it? No Biden?
|
On February 04 2020 08:24 Nebuchad wrote:
This can't be real can it? No Biden?
It is just one particular caucus. There was one in a theater full of people over 60 where it was similar with the groups being Biden and Klob (and a viable Sanders).
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
