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On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:
Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him.
Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that
Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states.
In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million.
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On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. surprise, if you remove almost a 5th of the US population the results of an election change!
...
Seriously, that's your argument?
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On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million.
And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird.
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On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird.
I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears.
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United States44448 Posts
On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears.
and Democrats concede the ones they'll never win. This isn't new stuff.
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On June 13 2019 00:49 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. and Democrats concede the ones they'll never win. This isn't new stuff.
Which is why it would be comparably silly for Republicans to point to a large popular vote margin in Texas (2004) for Republicans as a confidence booster going into 2008
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On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears.
So can we take out Texas? and all the south?
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United States44448 Posts
On June 13 2019 00:54 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:49 KwarK wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. and Democrats concede the ones they'll never win. This isn't new stuff. Which is why it would be comparably silly for Republicans to point to a large popular vote margin in Texas (2004) for Republicans as a confidence booster going into 2008
But not silly for them to point to a large popular vote margin nationally with the expectation that there will be some states that go in a landslide to both but overall being way more popular is better than not being way more popular.
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On June 13 2019 00:55 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. So can we take out Texas? and all the south?
Typically this is what we do when we reduce the map to "toss ups", which is where popular vote margins might matter.
On June 13 2019 00:57 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:54 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 KwarK wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. and Democrats concede the ones they'll never win. This isn't new stuff. Which is why it would be comparably silly for Republicans to point to a large popular vote margin in Texas (2004) for Republicans as a confidence booster going into 2008 But not silly for them to point to a large popular vote margin nationally with the expectation that there will be some states that go in a landslide to both but overall being way more popular is better than not being way more popular.
That's what I think is being pointed out? That it's not really "nationally" as much as it can be accounted for by 2 states Republicans have no ambitions to change the vote total in.
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On June 13 2019 00:55 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. So can we take out Texas? and all the south?
Can you divulge a shred of recognition that those two states function for Democratic popular vote wins more than any state or pair of states that the Republicans win? I say this just to see if IgnE's point can be understood at any level, before whatabouting to different metrics.
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United States44448 Posts
On June 13 2019 00:57 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:55 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. So can we take out Texas? and all the south? Typically this is what we do when we reduce the map to "toss ups", which is where popular vote margins might matter. Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:57 KwarK wrote:On June 13 2019 00:54 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 KwarK wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. and Democrats concede the ones they'll never win. This isn't new stuff. Which is why it would be comparably silly for Republicans to point to a large popular vote margin in Texas (2004) for Republicans as a confidence booster going into 2008 But not silly for them to point to a large popular vote margin nationally with the expectation that there will be some states that go in a landslide to both but overall being way more popular is better than not being way more popular. That's what I think is being pointed out? That it's not really "nationally" as much as it can be accounted for by 2 states Republicans have no ambitions to change the vote total in.
Yes but the thing being pointed out doesn't make sense. If you assume that the Democrats have a margin in those 2 states alone and the rest are 50:50 then sure, they're only guaranteed to win two states. But the Democrats have a margin in some and the Republicans have a margin in others. You can't justify excluding California without also justifying excluding Texas.
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On June 13 2019 01:00 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 00:55 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. So can we take out Texas? and all the south? Can you divulge a shred of recognition that those two states function for Democratic popular vote wins more than any state or pair of states that the Republicans win? I say this just to see if IgnE's point can be understood at any level, before whatabouting to different metrics.
I mean I get it, but do you realize that when you go 'if you discard millions of Americans votes, you change the outcome!' people might think its silly?
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If we believe those polls from yesterday, theres a 13% spread between trump and Biden in the national popular vote. I doubt that CA and NY are accounting for all or most of that 13% (unless the pollsters overrepresented those two states). And I would have to think that a 13% spread nationally translates into an electoral college win. Even if we reduce it to an 8% spread based on margin of error, I would bet that still translates into an EC win.
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There's a year and a half left, unless you work for someone's campaign you shouldn't give two shits about polls at this point
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On June 13 2019 01:53 JimmiC wrote:
The other thing with polling that always makes me nervous with Trump is there are people who vote Trump who don't admit they vote Trump. So when they get asked they say the other. As much as I think it is good news for basically all the Dems that it polling this way I think that they still need to be vigilant and understand that if too many people think it is a slam dunk(again) they could lose (again).
I think that went away though right? People are now proud to vote for him more so than before
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On June 13 2019 01:44 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 01:00 Danglars wrote:On June 13 2019 00:55 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. So can we take out Texas? and all the south? Can you divulge a shred of recognition that those two states function for Democratic popular vote wins more than any state or pair of states that the Republicans win? I say this just to see if IgnE's point can be understood at any level, before whatabouting to different metrics. I mean I get it, but do you realize that when you go 'if you discard millions of Americans votes, you change the outcome!' people might think its silly?
You're missing the rub of the question. Can you concede that a national poll shedding light on the share of popular vote expected may be overly influenced by high margins in two states? Like, a static 3% or 5% mark for popular vote goals might just mean higher percentages in two states that would be won anyways, and not really hurt Trump's chances of winning again in the same manner as last time?
I gather that was IgnE's point originally.
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On June 13 2019 02:24 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2019 01:44 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 01:00 Danglars wrote:On June 13 2019 00:55 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 13 2019 00:30 IyMoon wrote:On June 13 2019 00:26 IgnE wrote:On June 12 2019 23:48 IyMoon wrote:On June 12 2019 23:35 JimmiC wrote:On June 12 2019 10:31 Doodsmack wrote:Very bad poll numbers out for Trump today. Maybe he only won in 2016 because his opponent was historically bad/subject to FBI criminal investigations/getting her hacked correspondence revealed in mainstream news daily. And now, the country would be glad to have a replacement for him. https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1138504022158204929 Is this nationally? And with the electoral college do these numbers mean enough of a spread that Trump doesn't win. I ask because from my limited understanding it is almost a guarantee that win or lose Trump won't get the popular vote. So how far down does it have to fall for him to lose the election? Like can he win 40% of the popular vote and win. And I don't mean only theoretically, I mean in realistic projections how low can the popular vote go and he still win? Realistically, anything bellow 5% is almost impossible to win. Trump lost by around 3% and he JUST squeaked out a win because of the EC. I don't think its possible with any less tan that Depends what you mean by “realistically.” But consider that Trump lost by nearly 3 million votes. Yet Clinton won California by 4.2 million votes and won New York by 1.6 million, which is a net 5.8 million advantage in those two states. In other words if you remove NY and CA Trump won the popular vote by 3 million. And if you remove every state that voted for Trump Clinton won in a landslide. The idea that you can just remove the first and fourth largest states in the union and then draw results from that.... its just weird. I think you're missing the point? Republicans concede those states and it's winner take all, their expected delegates from there is 0, so they don't even campaign there. So if they lose by 10,000 or 10,000,000 they still get the 0 they expected and Democrats celebrating the moral victory of it is music to Republican ears. So can we take out Texas? and all the south? Can you divulge a shred of recognition that those two states function for Democratic popular vote wins more than any state or pair of states that the Republicans win? I say this just to see if IgnE's point can be understood at any level, before whatabouting to different metrics. I mean I get it, but do you realize that when you go 'if you discard millions of Americans votes, you change the outcome!' people might think its silly? You're missing the rub of the question. Can you concede that a national poll shedding light on the share of popular vote expected may be overly influenced by high margins in two states? Like, a static 3% or 5% mark for popular vote goals might just mean higher percentages in two states that would be won anyways, and not really hurt Trump's chances of winning again in the same manner as last time? I gather that was IgnE's point originally.
It COULD be a larger margin in NY and CA, but if you take it with the combination of trump being underwater in the majority of states (https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/) you start to see that a 8-13% national bump is still really really bad news for trump and probably not skewed by over polling in CA and NY.
So yeah, I get IgnE point, I just don't think its a good one is what I am saying
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On June 13 2019 02:01 Dan HH wrote:
There's a year and a half left, unless you work for someone's campaign you shouldn't give two shits about polls at this point
That’s my take as well.
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One word of caution on the polling right now, even as I like to chat about it. Lieberman was in the lead for the Democratic nomination at this point in the process, and Clinton was in the lead over Obama at this point in the nominating process. Neither ended up as their party's nominee.
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EPT
