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On January 10 2020 03:18 JimmiC wrote: Speculating is what you do until you know the answers. It only becomes a problem if you treat your speculation like fact which I have not done.
Its also a problem if your specualation is based on stupid.+ Show Spoiler +
("it looks likely because they havent released black box" to paraphase.. like wtf? Its been a couple days. How often does black evidence every show up this quickly?)
I can speculate that the moon is made of cheese, because I read it in a story book somewhere..
There is little value in discussing things just for the sake of discussion.
Because they had already located the black box? It would be stupid if they hadn't found it, but they had. Perhaps it would be valuable for you to read the sources and be up to date on the stories before you called others stupid, otherwise you just end up looking, well, stupid.
Dont be a muppet, I know they found the black box. Its It's literally the first thing that's recovered. I was clearly implying that no one releases the information this quickly without first making sure they can cover their asses to the max. This is not a controversial action in itself without precedent. That's just the possessor party being diligent.
So not giving out black box data yet isn't particularly alarming.
There are plenty of other alarming things which point to a mistake but none of them are actually evidence ...
Trudeau just came on and said there does appear to be evidence but nothing has actually been revealed yet. Although it seems like the consensus outside of Iran is building that it was shot down. Again that is an extraordinarily egregious mistake so I'm not hanging my hat on any speculation yet.
Inspectors are already there. Its whether they are able to make the investigation in an unfettered manner is the question. Including access to they box. Stopping or hindering them is an automatic admission of guilt to a significant degree. Thats the kind of speculation I'd agree is legitimate
Reuters reported that one U.S. official said U.S. satellites had detected the launch of two missiles shortly before the plane crashed, followed by an explosion. Two officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was accidental.
Is that enough that it moves from speculation to discussion? On the balance of probabilities, a near new plane, in a nation that has just launched an offensive strike and is expecting a retaliatory response crashing unexpectedly was likely shot down.
Anything coming from US officials and Ukrainians not on the ground is extremely suspect. There is little reason to take things from US Officials representing Govt Departments at face value at the moment. I mean really? Are we really accepting anything from this administration as truth at face value ? I guess then everything thats happened is justified then because the imminent threat bullshit was probably true aswell.
This is the same US that sent a letter indicating the withdrawl of troops from Iraq and retracted it right after. What you just linked, "reuters knows a guy who knows a guy who said".... There is literally no reason for believing anything or speculating shit until they have something more concrete.
So no not really.. but I mean sure you can balance your probabilities that way, none of those things are evidence, its still just uninformed speculation by trying to create your own 2 and 2 and add them up. Even if that ends up being correct which is well and truly possible, you are still just speculating based on zero evidence and a set of circumstances.
This is whodunit failure 101..
The article you linked has Trudeau literally saying the words "its too early to speculate".
Nah it say yesterday Trudeau said it was too early to speculate, today he said the evidence demonstrate it was an Iranian missile but he called for an investigation to make light of the situation. Seriously if it's true it's a major fucking fuck up, I can't imagine the Iranian government agreeing to an international investigation tho, no government want to admit they just killed over 200 of their citizen by accident.
Ukraine did it, but for them it was an easy out because the rebel elements were held responsible. That one even though the Ukrainians weren't at fault took a while to actually develop any real info to the public.
Nor was I hanging my hat on the speculation. Basically you have said "guys don't speculate" "Now I think its ok to speculate, but I'm not hanging my hat".
I'm not sure why you decided to be so aggressively dickish, but if you don't like to speculate that is fine. But don't be an ass and then do the same thing hours later because now the bar you made up in your head has been met.
On January 10 2020 03:18 JimmiC wrote: Speculating is what you do until you know the answers. It only becomes a problem if you treat your speculation like fact which I have not done.
Its also a problem if your specualation is based on stupid.+ Show Spoiler +
("it looks likely because they havent released black box" to paraphase.. like wtf? Its been a couple days. How often does black evidence every show up this quickly?)
I can speculate that the moon is made of cheese, because I read it in a story book somewhere..
There is little value in discussing things just for the sake of discussion.
Because they had already located the black box? It would be stupid if they hadn't found it, but they had. Perhaps it would be valuable for you to read the sources and be up to date on the stories before you called others stupid, otherwise you just end up looking, well, stupid.
Dont be a muppet, I know they found the black box. Its It's literally the first thing that's recovered. I was clearly implying that no one releases the information this quickly without first making sure they can cover their asses to the max. This is not a controversial action in itself without precedent. That's just the possessor party being diligent.
So not giving out black box data yet isn't particularly alarming.
There are plenty of other alarming things which point to a mistake but none of them are actually evidence ...
Trudeau just came on and said there does appear to be evidence but nothing has actually been revealed yet. Although it seems like the consensus outside of Iran is building that it was shot down. Again that is an extraordinarily egregious mistake so I'm not hanging my hat on any speculation yet.
Inspectors are already there. Its whether they are able to make the investigation in an unfettered manner is the question. Including access to they box. Stopping or hindering them is an automatic admission of guilt to a significant degree. Thats the kind of speculation I'd agree is legitimate
Reuters reported that one U.S. official said U.S. satellites had detected the launch of two missiles shortly before the plane crashed, followed by an explosion. Two officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was accidental.
Is that enough that it moves from speculation to discussion? On the balance of probabilities, a near new plane, in a nation that has just launched an offensive strike and is expecting a retaliatory response crashing unexpectedly was likely shot down.
Anything coming from US officials and Ukrainians not on the ground is extremely suspect. There is little reason to take things from US Officials representing Govt Departments at face value at the moment. I mean really? Are we really accepting anything from this administration as truth at face value ? I guess then everything thats happened is justified then because the imminent threat bullshit was probably true aswell.
This is the same US that sent a letter indicating the withdrawl of troops from Iraq and retracted it right after. What you just linked, "reuters knows a guy who knows a guy who said".... There is literally no reason for believing anything or speculating shit until they have something more concrete.
So no not really.. but I mean sure you can balance your probabilities that way, none of those things are evidence, its still just uninformed speculation by trying to create your own 2 and 2 and add them up. Even if that ends up being correct which is well and truly possible, you are still just speculating based on zero evidence and a set of circumstances.
This is whodunit failure 101..
The article you linked has Trudeau literally saying the words "its too early to speculate".
Nah it say yesterday Trudeau said it was too early to speculate, today he said the evidence demonstrate it was an Iranian missile but he called for an investigation to make light of the situation. Seriously if it's true it's a major fucking fuck up, I can't imagine the Iranian government agreeing to an international investigation tho, no government want to admit they just killed over 200 of their citizen by accident.
Ukraine did it, but for them it was an easy out because the rebel elements were held responsible. That one even though the Ukrainians weren't at fault took a while to actually develop any real info to the public.
Nor was I hanging my hat on the speculation. Basically you have said "guys don't speculate" "Now I think its ok to speculate, but I'm not hanging my hat".
I'm not sure why you decided to be so aggressively dickish, but if you don't like to speculate that is fine. But don't be an ass and then do the same thing hours later because now the bar you made up in your head has been met.
Wo slow down sensitive sam.
Your opening post was literally didn't give out black box yet - probably guilty - what do we do.. and it took of all people Raynor to point out that wasn't a position worth discussing yet.
And I'm not speculating I'm just sharing whatever information had been put out. And what has been shared by parties who are not speculating because they purportedly have evidence..
Rebs, this is looking more like stubbornly holding ground rather than having a discussion. IR sensing is pretty clear, which it sounds like is what made it obvious. It's not particularly fancy technology and in all likelihood other countries happened to see it as well.
On January 10 2020 06:09 Mohdoo wrote: Rebs, this is looking more like stubbornly holding ground rather than having a discussion. IR sensing is pretty clear, which it sounds like is what made it obvious. It's not particularly fancy technology and in all likelihood other countries happened to see it as well.
Sorry, do I know you?
I'm not sure you are addressing the ground I'm holding either.
Here .. evidence
Speculate away..
Video appears to show missile hitting object in sky over Tehran
On January 10 2020 03:18 JimmiC wrote: Speculating is what you do until you know the answers. It only becomes a problem if you treat your speculation like fact which I have not done.
Its also a problem if your specualation is based on stupid.+ Show Spoiler +
("it looks likely because they havent released black box" to paraphase.. like wtf? Its been a couple days. How often does black evidence every show up this quickly?)
I can speculate that the moon is made of cheese, because I read it in a story book somewhere..
There is little value in discussing things just for the sake of discussion.
Because they had already located the black box? It would be stupid if they hadn't found it, but they had. Perhaps it would be valuable for you to read the sources and be up to date on the stories before you called others stupid, otherwise you just end up looking, well, stupid.
Dont be a muppet, I know they found the black box. Its It's literally the first thing that's recovered. I was clearly implying that no one releases the information this quickly without first making sure they can cover their asses to the max. This is not a controversial action in itself without precedent. That's just the possessor party being diligent.
So not giving out black box data yet isn't particularly alarming.
There are plenty of other alarming things which point to a mistake but none of them are actually evidence ...
Trudeau just came on and said there does appear to be evidence but nothing has actually been revealed yet. Although it seems like the consensus outside of Iran is building that it was shot down. Again that is an extraordinarily egregious mistake so I'm not hanging my hat on any speculation yet.
Inspectors are already there. Its whether they are able to make the investigation in an unfettered manner is the question. Including access to they box. Stopping or hindering them is an automatic admission of guilt to a significant degree. Thats the kind of speculation I'd agree is legitimate
Reuters reported that one U.S. official said U.S. satellites had detected the launch of two missiles shortly before the plane crashed, followed by an explosion. Two officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was accidental.
Is that enough that it moves from speculation to discussion? On the balance of probabilities, a near new plane, in a nation that has just launched an offensive strike and is expecting a retaliatory response crashing unexpectedly was likely shot down.
Anything coming from US officials and Ukrainians not on the ground is extremely suspect. There is little reason to take things from US Officials representing Govt Departments at face value at the moment. I mean really? Are we really accepting anything from this administration as truth at face value ? I guess then everything thats happened is justified then because the imminent threat bullshit was probably true aswell.
This is the same US that sent a letter indicating the withdrawl of troops from Iraq and retracted it right after. What you just linked, "reuters knows a guy who knows a guy who said".... There is literally no reason for believing anything or speculating shit until they have something more concrete.
So no not really.. but I mean sure you can balance your probabilities that way, none of those things are evidence, its still just uninformed speculation by trying to create your own 2 and 2 and add them up. Even if that ends up being correct which is well and truly possible, you are still just speculating based on zero evidence and a set of circumstances.
This is whodunit failure 101..
The article you linked has Trudeau literally saying the words "its too early to speculate".
Nah it say yesterday Trudeau said it was too early to speculate, today he said the evidence demonstrate it was an Iranian missile but he called for an investigation to make light of the situation. Seriously if it's true it's a major fucking fuck up, I can't imagine the Iranian government agreeing to an international investigation tho, no government want to admit they just killed over 200 of their citizen by accident.
Ukraine did it, but for them it was an easy out because the rebel elements were held responsible. That one even though the Ukrainians weren't at fault took a while to actually develop any real info to the public.
Nor was I hanging my hat on the speculation. Basically you have said "guys don't speculate" "Now I think its ok to speculate, but I'm not hanging my hat".
I'm not sure why you decided to be so aggressively dickish, but if you don't like to speculate that is fine. But don't be an ass and then do the same thing hours later because now the bar you made up in your head has been met.
Wo slow down sensitive sam.
Your opening post was literally didn't give out black box yet - probably guilty - what do we do.. and it took of all people Raynor to point out that wasn't a position worth discussing yet.
And I'm not speculating I'm just sharing whatever information had been put out. And what has been shared by parties who are not speculating...
On January 09 2020 00:59 JimmiC wrote: With the Plane going down in Iran carrying so many Canadians what do you think our reaction should be if it comes out that Iran shot it down (which is looking more likely with Iran not releasing the black box plus the video). Sanctions? Strong words? Nothing?
I'm not sure that anything makes a difference in this tragedy. I'm hoping for just condolences and an effort to cool things down not fire them up further. What a horrible thing to happen to so many.
Actually the above is "literally" my post. I've bolded the words that clearly show you are continuing to misrepresent it.
"if it comes out" Clearly shows I am not saying "they did it" it says IF they did. I'm not sure why you were and apparently are still confused.
I also say "looking Likely" which is still far from saying they did it, just that it appeared likely based on all available info.
Oh and look it now looks like in fact what I speculated, and most who had read all the available information had as well so not like it was impressive by me or anything, is what happened.
Ukrainian airliner was shot down by Iran with Russian-made surface-to-air missiles From CNN's Barbara Starr
The Ukrainian plane that crashed Wednesday was shot down by two Russian-made surface to air missiles (SA-15), according to a US official familiar with the intelligence.
The US saw Iranian radar signals lock onto the jetliner, before it was shot down.
The morning after the incident, US analysts discovered the data but took another day to verify.
On January 10 2020 06:09 Mohdoo wrote: Rebs, this is looking more like stubbornly holding ground rather than having a discussion. IR sensing is pretty clear, which it sounds like is what made it obvious. It's not particularly fancy technology and in all likelihood other countries happened to see it as well.
Sorry, do I know you?
This seems like a weird way to respond to someone. Do you need to know me..? This is an internet forum lol
Edit: while I understand the serial number of the missile is not visible in this video, I have an easy time counting this as evidence a missile came out of Iran:
I am hopeful we will eventually get the serial number of the missile, but I of course understand how someone could be skeptical after something as flimsy as video evidence
I've met dozens of Iranians over the past 20 years. None of them hate or even dislike Canada or Canadians. I don't think they're all engaged in some massive cover up and that a bunch of them secretly hate Canada. I've seen a mild disdain amongst Iranians for the most brutal hockey fights. But then.. we got lots of Canadians that also think bench clearing hockey brawls are bordering on criminal acts.
My #1 employee is Iranian. We talk a lot and he expressed how your average Iranian thinks about Canada in this way.
Q : "what do you think of Hawaii?" A : " ummm not much , nice weather "
Q : " what do you think of Hawaiians. Do you hate or love them." A : " not much really .. i have no emotion towards Hawaiians"
He says the strongest thought Iranians have about Canada is the place is cold with bad weather. Iranians think about Canadians about as much as Canadians think about Hawaiians. Not much at all.
So I don't know what shooting down a plane with 80+ Iranians and 60-odd Canadians accomplishes in Iran's dispute with the USA.
40 years ago when Ken Taylor/Canada fished 6 American hostages out of Iran they were fucking over a group of Iranian students more than they were fucking over the Iranian government.This 40 year old event is probably the "worst thing" Canada has ever done against Iran.
Iran has been waiting 40 years to get back at Canada for that? I just don't buy that.
So I dunno , IF Iran intentionally shot down this plane.... I just don't get it. I think something got FUBAR-ed. Because Iran is embroiled in a big stand off with the USA Iran is being very secretive. Who can blame them? We might never find out the truth behind what happened.
If it was intentional I think it might be some religious terrorism that we have yet to uncover. An act similar to the Air India disaster of June 1985. Which is to say, if it was intentional it was not about Canada at all.
On January 11 2020 02:49 JimmyJRaynor wrote: I've met dozens of Iranians over the past 20 years. None of them hate or even dislike Canada or Canadians. I don't think they're all engaged in some massive cover up and that a bunch of them secretly hate Canada. I've seen a mild disdain amongst Iranians for the most brutal hockey fights. But then.. we got lots of Canadians that also think bench clearing hockey brawls are bordering on criminal acts.
My #1 employee is Iranian. We talk a lot and he expressed how your average Iranian thinks about Canada in this way.
Q : "what do you think of Hawaii?" A : " ummm not much , nice weather "
Q : " what do you think of Hawaiians. Do you hate or love them." A : " not much really .. i have no emotion towards Hawaiians"
He says the strongest thought Iranians have about Canada is the place is cold with bad weather. Iranians think about Canadians about as much as Canadians think about Hawaiians. Not much at all.
So I don't know what shooting down a plane with 80+ Iranians and 60-odd Canadians accomplishes in Iran's dispute with the USA.
40 years ago when Ken Taylor/Canada fished 6 American hostages out of Iran they were fucking over a group of Iranian students more than they were fucking over the Iranian government.This 40 year old event is probably the "worst thing" Canada has ever done against Iran.
Iran has been waiting 40 years to get back at Canada for that? I just don't buy that.
So I dunno , IF Iran intentionally shot down this plane.... I just don't get it. I think something got FUBAR-ed. Because Iran is embroiled in a big stand off with the USA Iran is being very secretive. Who can blame them? We might never find out the truth behind what happened.
If it was intentional I think it might be some religious terrorism that we have yet to uncover. An act similar to the Air India disaster of June 1985. Which is to say, if it was intentional it was not about Canada at all.
Another angle on doing it on purpose (which I don't think they did) is that a country has multiple power blocks. It doesn't have to be ordered from the top to be on purpose. Some colonel or similar could decide it. Even lower levels than that can pull it off if they have reason and opportunity. Opportunity probably being easier than normal since I assume their military is at high alert after the previous week.
Could be a block that wants the government down, to then take it over themselves. Doing it on purpose to promote their cause makes sense then.
Could also be the most radical war hawks that want to escalate it. Or any other block that think it promotes their cause over the government one.
On a lighter note. Here is a different perspective on how Canadians viewed Hero Key Taylor. This was extremely popular. I think even back in 1981 when the tensions between Canada and Iran were very high ...Canada and Canadians didn't really view Iran as some kind of big evil threat.
On January 11 2020 02:49 JimmyJRaynor wrote: I've met dozens of Iranians over the past 20 years. None of them hate or even dislike Canada or Canadians. I don't think they're all engaged in some massive cover up and that a bunch of them secretly hate Canada. I've seen a mild disdain amongst Iranians for the most brutal hockey fights. But then.. we got lots of Canadians that also think bench clearing hockey brawls are bordering on criminal acts.
My #1 employee is Iranian. We talk a lot and he expressed how your average Iranian thinks about Canada in this way.
Q : "what do you think of Hawaii?" A : " ummm not much , nice weather "
Q : " what do you think of Hawaiians. Do you hate or love them." A : " not much really .. i have no emotion towards Hawaiians"
He says the strongest thought Iranians have about Canada is the place is cold with bad weather. Iranians think about Canadians about as much as Canadians think about Hawaiians. Not much at all.
So I don't know what shooting down a plane with 80+ Iranians and 60-odd Canadians accomplishes in Iran's dispute with the USA.
40 years ago when Ken Taylor/Canada fished 6 American hostages out of Iran they were fucking over a group of Iranian students more than they were fucking over the Iranian government.This 40 year old event is probably the "worst thing" Canada has ever done against Iran.
Iran has been waiting 40 years to get back at Canada for that? I just don't buy that.
So I dunno , IF Iran intentionally shot down this plane.... I just don't get it. I think something got FUBAR-ed. Because Iran is embroiled in a big stand off with the USA Iran is being very secretive. Who can blame them? We might never find out the truth behind what happened.
If it was intentional I think it might be some religious terrorism that we have yet to uncover. An act similar to the Air India disaster of June 1985. Which is to say, if it was intentional it was not about Canada at all.
Another angle on doing it on purpose (which I don't think they did) is that a country has multiple power blocks. It doesn't have to be ordered from the top to be on purpose. Some colonel or similar could decide it. Even lower levels than that can pull it off if they have reason and opportunity. Opportunity probably being easier than normal since I assume their military is at high alert after the previous week.
Could be a block that wants the government down, to then take it over themselves. Doing it on purpose to promote their cause makes sense then.
Could also be the most radical war hawks that want to escalate it. Or any other block that think it promotes their cause over the government one.
There is probably some degree of fluff/BS/spin in Iran's explanation. It is probably not 100% gospel truth. However, over all, the "accident" explanation makes the most sense.
More bad news for Canadians. A guy with some very controversial views, Neil Peart, is dead. Rush introduced me to the writings of Ayn Rand.
Yeah, probably an accident. They're probably at their equivalent of a defcon 1 and someone probably made a serious error, probably due to miscommunication.
Someone is going to jail or worse for this and the Iranian government is likely to pay out the surviving families. Not else can be done nor should anything else be done. This wasn't an act of war, it was a mistake caused by error. What that error is, we will never know...but Iran has next to no reason for making an enemy out of Canada.
I'm pretty sad that Neil Peart is dead... here is a memory of a happier time...
While many rock stars baked their brains on drugs during the many boring hours touring brings Peart spent his time enriching his mind. He ended up writing seven books between the years 1996 and 2016. When Peart spoke, which wasn't often, I listened.
I thought he was a top notch drummer. Rolling Stone has him as #4 in their top 100 drummers of all time. John Bonham is listed as #1. I'd say that is about right.
Neil Peart interviewed Jean Chretien in 1993 before the 1993 election. Peart doesn't pull any punches.
They don't contribute anything other than being celebrities. If the Royals want to pay for security etc on their own dime sure.
We'd say no to any celebrity that wanted to live in Canada and have taxpayers fund their personal expenses, so why not do the same for the Royal family outside of official visits?
I do think Canadians have a right to feel angry about this, however, the Toronto Sun's sensationalist way of dealing with Iran's contradictory initial statements is rather incendiary.
I'm in the no camp as well. The royals can pay for their own security unless Harry ends up as Gov General and has security as a perk of the job. Canada's economy is doing terrible right now...we don't need to be wasting money on inefficient government contracts that cost a good 30-40% more than they should.
Hopefully, a war of words does not begin between Trudeau and US Politicians. I hope Trudeau just stops talking until Iran is done with their process.
On January 15 2020 04:37 BabelFish1 wrote: Canada's economy is doing terrible right now...we don't need to be wasting money on inefficient government contracts that cost a good 30-40% more than they should.
From what I've seen its only been 1 quarter that the economy is doing poorly. If another set of quarterly stats indicate a tanking economy that's a very bad sign for Canada. When the US economy is doing well the Canadian economy should be doing well as well.
They also have to apply for a Possession and Acquisition License and work with a security firm approved by the Ontario government.
“It’s most common in jewellery stores. Bodyguards are not allowed to carry guns in Canada. It has to be a precious metal or a cash value,” security expert Chris Menary said in an interview.
They also have to apply for a Possession and Acquisition License and work with a security firm approved by the Ontario government.
“It’s most common in jewellery stores. Bodyguards are not allowed to carry guns in Canada. It has to be a precious metal or a cash value,” security expert Chris Menary said in an interview.
It's their problems, everyone else seems to be doing fine without armed security anyway. They just have to go play tourist somewhere else in their empire if they want.
More than 60 per cent of Canadians said they support the appointment of Prince Harry to governor general, found a Postmedia poll conducted by Dart and Maru/Blue Voice Canada.
What the hell, it's not enough that we are stuck bowing to our great majesty representative, can we at least chose people who actually did something great in their life?