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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 437

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
arbiter_md
Profile Joined February 2008
Moldova1219 Posts
March 13 2016 19:26 GMT
#8721
I try to compare a situation when ECB decides to print some euros and to keep interests at 0% with the situation where they print no money and push for negative interest rate. And I don't see any advantage in the second situation.
You just force people to keep cash at home. Which is inconvenient for them. In first scenario they could print some money and help euro-zone states with their budget deficit. What am I missing?
The copyright of this post belongs solely to me. Nobody else, not teamliquid, not greetech and not even blizzard have any share of this copyright. You can copy, distribute, use in commercial purposes the content of this post or parts of it freely.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
March 13 2016 19:32 GMT
#8722
Well your missing that that doesn't solve any of the problems the countries have. Which is primarily that thier pension systems are designed for people to generally work till 12 months before they die and have 3-6 children.
Freeeeeeedom
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 19:39:15
March 13 2016 19:38 GMT
#8723
On March 14 2016 04:26 arbiter_md wrote:
I try to compare a situation when ECB decides to print some euros and to keep interests at 0% with the situation where they print no money and push for negative interest rate. And I don't see any advantage in the second situation.
You just force people to keep cash at home. Which is inconvenient for them. In first scenario they could print some money and help euro-zone states with their budget deficit. What am I missing?

Advantage for whom ? Who benefit from negative interest rates ? The banking system and the finance, that can swim in easy central bank money.
Every possible policy is now tailored with the idea that the banking system and the finance market have the monopole on financing the economy, which is stupid.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
March 13 2016 19:45 GMT
#8724
Isn't the bank of Japan directly financing the Japanese economy and they're still not getting out of the deflation? Monetary policies as the primary solution seems like a fight with a blunt weapon increasingly
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 20:44:04
March 13 2016 20:22 GMT
#8725
On March 14 2016 04:45 Nyxisto wrote:
Isn't the bank of Japan directly financing the Japanese economy and they're still not getting out of the deflation? Monetary policies as the primary solution seems like a fight with a blunt weapon increasingly

This idea that it is a blunt weapon makes me cringe, how did we fought and financed the two world wars exactly ? A pretty deadly weapon if you ask me.... Japan used debt to finance its deficit, like any other country.
Japan made the same mistake that the european countries are doing right now : they thought they could fight against their inexistant growth by increasing cost competitiveness, lowering wages and making it easier for firm to fire their workers (like we are doing in France, like Italy did, like Spain, Portugal, Greece, Germany, etc.). And they tried to fight the high debt by consolidating their finance (reducing the deficit) at first. It's only been a few years that the bank Japan has been monetizing the deficit, and they did some seriously stupid shit before then. And what's the result of that monetization ? NO INFLATION (which means nothing bad - the inflation only picked up after a stupid increase in added value tax). It means that they should continue, and increase the monetisation of the debt, not that it is inefficient.

[image loading]
http://inflation.us/japan-vs-us-budget-deficit-monetization/

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-24/japan-s-debt-trap

May I add that monetizing the deficit is not a monetary policy (whose goal is to manage inflation, saving, interest rates, etc.), it is the financing of a budgetary policy : investment in infrastructure, education, etc., all things that benefit your growth both in the short and in the long run.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
March 13 2016 22:03 GMT
#8726
Poor Germany
I thought with your history you'd know better
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
zatic
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Zurich15365 Posts
March 13 2016 22:07 GMT
#8727
On March 14 2016 07:03 OtherWorld wrote:
Poor Germany
I thought with your history you'd know better

I think it went pretty well overall.

In my mind I have temporarily excluded anything Sachsen from Germany anyway.
ModeratorI know Teamliquid is known as a massive building
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 22:30:28
March 13 2016 22:09 GMT
#8728
Trump will build the wall and Saxony is going to pay for it

seriously though these results are pretty embarrassing
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 13 2016 22:36 GMT
#8729
monetizing the deficit is more like an enabler for further fiscal policy, so probably not what nyxisto was referring to
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
March 13 2016 23:08 GMT
#8730
Anybody who didn't see this election results coming from a mile away must be living in an ivory tower. Not like it changes anything. Merkel like the stubborn mule that she is will of course continue like nothing happened, she'll continue to fray the party system until finding coalition partners will get beyond ridicolous or until we'll get on big coalition after the other.

Easily the worst chancellor since fucking Adolf.
Mafe
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany5966 Posts
March 13 2016 23:10 GMT
#8731
I struggle to decide if the rise of the AfD is due to more germans adopting populisitc standpoints, or if these people always had this opinion, but 5-10-20 years ago, all of them had voted for the CDU.

Anyway, for my home state Baden-Württemberg I'm reasonably happy, as long as Kretschmann remains in office.
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
March 13 2016 23:14 GMT
#8732
On March 14 2016 08:10 Mafe wrote:
I struggle to decide if the rise of the AfD is due to more germans adopting populisitc standpoints, or if these people always had this opinion, but 5-10-20 years ago, all of them had voted for the CDU.

Anyway, for my home state Baden-Württemberg I'm reasonably happy, as long as Kretschmann remains in office.



Yeah living in BW I don't have a problem with Kretschmann either. AFD will continue to prosper as long as it gets demonized by our friends in office and the media. Let's not act like they are going to reopen Sachsenhausen or like 15-25 % of the population are nazis. The vast majority of the parties position would have been a non issue in the CDU pre Merkel.
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 23:20:10
March 13 2016 23:19 GMT
#8733
On March 14 2016 08:14 AngryMag wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 14 2016 08:10 Mafe wrote:
I struggle to decide if the rise of the AfD is due to more germans adopting populisitc standpoints, or if these people always had this opinion, but 5-10-20 years ago, all of them had voted for the CDU.

Anyway, for my home state Baden-Württemberg I'm reasonably happy, as long as Kretschmann remains in office.



Yeah living in BW I don't have a problem with Kretschmann either. AFD will continue to prosper as long as it gets demonized by our friends in office and the media. Let's not act like they are going to reopen Sachsenhausen or like 15-25 % of the population are nazis. The vast majority of the parties position would have been a non issue in the CDU pre Merkel.


I quoted instead of editing
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 23:45:41
March 13 2016 23:45 GMT
#8734
On March 14 2016 08:14 AngryMag wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 14 2016 08:10 Mafe wrote:
I struggle to decide if the rise of the AfD is due to more germans adopting populisitc standpoints, or if these people always had this opinion, but 5-10-20 years ago, all of them had voted for the CDU.

Anyway, for my home state Baden-Württemberg I'm reasonably happy, as long as Kretschmann remains in office.



Yeah living in BW I don't have a problem with Kretschmann either. AFD will continue to prosper as long as it gets demonized by our friends in office and the media. Let's not act like they are going to reopen Sachsenhausen or like 15-25 % of the population are nazis. The vast majority of the parties position would have been a non issue in the CDU pre Merkel.


There are easily 20% of the population who are susceptible to far-right ideology, including völkisch and nationalist stuff, it's just that civilization keeps them at bay, don't underestimate how fast things can go down the shitter
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
March 13 2016 23:51 GMT
#8735
On March 14 2016 08:45 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 14 2016 08:14 AngryMag wrote:
On March 14 2016 08:10 Mafe wrote:
I struggle to decide if the rise of the AfD is due to more germans adopting populisitc standpoints, or if these people always had this opinion, but 5-10-20 years ago, all of them had voted for the CDU.

Anyway, for my home state Baden-Württemberg I'm reasonably happy, as long as Kretschmann remains in office.



Yeah living in BW I don't have a problem with Kretschmann either. AFD will continue to prosper as long as it gets demonized by our friends in office and the media. Let's not act like they are going to reopen Sachsenhausen or like 15-25 % of the population are nazis. The vast majority of the parties position would have been a non issue in the CDU pre Merkel.


There are easily 20% of the population who are susceptible to far-right ideology, including völkisch and nationalist stuff, it's just that civilization keeps them at bay, don't underestimate how fast things can go down the shitter



yeah of course that is why nazi parties regularly get very low percentages and virtually never make it over the hurdle. The reality is if you are far enough on the left you just brand 20% as nazis and feel morally superiour. Leftist bigotry and the utter ineptitude to compromise with ~15-20% of the population while declaring themselves morally superiour will just help them to gain more traction.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
March 13 2016 23:56 GMT
#8736
No, they usually do not score so well because there is a huge social and civil backlash against these elements in our society. Just look at studies that try to examine anti-Semitic or anti-democratic tendencies among the population. The numbers are very high

https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2012/37499490_kw04_antisemitismusbericht/207504

AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
March 13 2016 23:59 GMT
#8737
On March 14 2016 08:56 Nyxisto wrote:
No, they usually do not score so well because there is a huge social and civil backlash against these elements in our society. Just look at studies that try to examine anti-Semitic or anti-democratic tendencies among the population. The numbers are very high

https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2012/37499490_kw04_antisemitismusbericht/207504



So they are antisemitic as fuck want to reopen Ausschwitz but they don't vote Nazis because they are afraid of the civil backlash? Do I get this right?
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-14 00:05:57
March 14 2016 00:02 GMT
#8738
you don't need to literally be Hitler to end up on the far right of the political spectrum, far-right defined as so radical that it's a danger to our democracy. Anti-Semitism, authoritarianism and so on are reasonable indicators to gauge if people are sympathetic to far-right thought, and yes in states with a stronger democratic tradition those people will usually not vote for far-right parties. In the new states that only have been democracies for 25 years you can see how fast this changes. The AfD jumped from zero to 24% in one election.
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
March 14 2016 00:08 GMT
#8739
On March 14 2016 09:02 Nyxisto wrote:
you don't need to literally be Hitler to end up on the far right of the political spectrum, far-right defined as so radical that it's a danger to our democracy. Anti-Semitism, authoritarianism and so are reasonable indicators to gauge if people are sympathetic to far-right thought, and yes in states with a stronger democratic tradition those people will usually not vote for far-right parties. In the new states that only have been democracies for 25 years you can see how fast this changes. The AfD jumped from zero to 24% in one election.


So the nazis voted the AFD today and pre Merkel the 20% nazis voted the CDU because they had very similar position? Implying that the AFD will attempt to throw other the free democratic basic order is so warped that it is almost funny which leads back to leftist bigotry and the utter ineptitude to compromise with other points of view. They'll continue to grow and one of the big reasons for this is the simplicistic view of the left that everybody who heavily disagrees with the current course is infact a nazi and would like to march eastwards rather sooner than later.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-14 01:50:42
March 14 2016 01:49 GMT
#8740
big chunk of voters for the AfD are former non-voters also, 10% of the 24% in Saxony did not vote before. It's actually where they've made the largest gains. Whether they'll continue to grow depends on how the refugee situation develops. If the world hasn't ended in two years they'll shrink again.
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