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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 184

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6263 Posts
July 10 2015 12:46 GMT
#3661
On July 10 2015 21:07 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2015 20:56 c0ldfusion wrote:
Where are the Greeks in the thread?

Is there outrage? is there consignment?

They must be at the beach.

Greeks are so lazy. No wonder they can't pay their debt.

User was temp banned for this post.
c0ldfusion
Profile Joined October 2010
United States8293 Posts
July 10 2015 12:47 GMT
#3662
I've been trying to avoid discussing economics given how political this entire process has been. However, the general sentiment among economists is that this current proposal, if accepted as is, is not going to change anything for Greece in the long run. We'll be right back to where we start in a couple of years, perhaps sooner.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
July 10 2015 12:59 GMT
#3663
European leaders like Merkel are just trying to push the ball ahead far enough so that their successor, and likely of different political colour, will have to take the blame for everything.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22097 Posts
July 10 2015 12:59 GMT
#3664
On July 10 2015 21:47 c0ldfusion wrote:
I've been trying to avoid discussing economics given how political this entire process has been. However, the general sentiment among economists is that this current proposal, if accepted as is, is not going to change anything for Greece in the long run. We'll be right back to where we start in a couple of years, perhaps sooner.

I would guess it is because of the problems Greece faces are so hard to fix.
Deep rooted tax avoidance on a national scale is hard to fix, especially when your people are now near broke and unemployed. They simply can't afford the taxes even if they want to.
The public sector is way to big. Cutting is down and growing the private sector is something that might be possible with massive amounts of money reserve to cushion the falls and keep things propped up during the transition but Greece is broke and will never get the amounts that would be required for it.

The problems have been left to fester for so long that it will be extremely hard to operate the patient without killing him.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
unsaeglich
Profile Joined June 2015
260 Posts
July 10 2015 13:16 GMT
#3665
On July 10 2015 21:59 Alcathous wrote:
European leaders like Merkel are just trying to push the ball ahead far enough so that their successor, and likely of different political colour, will have to take the blame for everything.

unlikely, the next president (probably Merkel herself) will delay the problems even further (aka European "solution"). Though it's France telling Germany what to do, as usual.

Anyway this all won't matter really, because, hopefully, we're done with the EU within 20 years. America needs to stay strong to secure european peace and the E-U-Countries can remain insignificant as they are.

There is war at all boarders of the EU, and instead of spending the billions in securing the Ukraine (who keeps getting invaided by Russia, little by little) and defeating the IS (at the Turkish boarder), resulting in millions of migrants, all political power and money gets wasted on greece. imho just dumpster greece, let them live off sunshine, fish and olive trees, save the countries worth saving..
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
July 10 2015 13:17 GMT
#3666
If a state in the US was as broke as Greece, it wouldn't even be on the news, except when it was California.

It is not hard to fix economically.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6263 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 13:20:16
July 10 2015 13:19 GMT
#3667
Greece’s reform proposals are strikingly similar to the ones Greek voters overwhelmingly rejected at a referendum only earlier this week. Yet, there are a few differences, some crucial and others less substantial.

Here is a list of where the two proposals converge and where they still stand apart:

Financing and Debt

Greece is asking for three-year loans of at least 53.5 billion euros ($59.9 billion) to cover its financing needs between 2015 and 2018. It is also seeking debt restructuring and reprofiling of its long-term debt due after 2022. The earlier proposals were in return for a five-month extension of an existing bailout program for loans of as much 15.5 billion euros and didn’t involve any debt restructuring. Fiscal targets remain the same with primary budget surplus seen at 1, 2, 3, and 3.5 percent of the gross domestic product between 2015 and 2018, even amid signs that the economy may have deteriorated under capital controls and shuttered banks for nearly two weeks.

Tax Reforms

With few exceptions, the Greek government adopts the creditors’ proposal on sales and corporate tax rates. The government is seeking to eliminate sales tax discounts on islands gradually by the end of 2016 instead of immediately, starting higher-income islands that are popular tourist destinations. It also seeks to keep hotels under a reduced 13 percent rate instead of the standard 23 percent.

Pension Reforms

The government is in agreement with the creditors in eliminating early retirement benefits and envisages savings of 0.25-0.50 percent of GDP in 2015 and 1 percent of GDP in 2016, effective from July 1, in line with demands under the earlier proposals. It proposes implementing a “zero-deficit” clause for supplementary and lump-sum pension funds, adopted in 2012, from October instead of immediately. While it agrees to phase out a supplementary allowance for low pensions by the end of December 2019, it wants to start phasing-out these benefits from March 2016 instead of starting immediately.

Fiscal and Structural Measures

Greece wants to increase advanced income tax payment on corporate income to 100 percent and gradually for individual businesses by the end of 2017, as part of steps to close loopholes for tax avoidance. It also proposes to eliminate preferential tax treatment for farmers by the end end of 2017. The creditors wanted these steps to be implemented by the end of 2016.

The government appears to backtrack on its own earlier proposals for military spending cuts, offering to reduce spending by 100 million euros in 2015 and 200 million euros in 2016. It had earlier suggested to cut military spending by 200 million euros in 2016 and 400 million euros in 2017. The creditors have sought an immediate cut in annual military spending by 400 million euros.

It offers instead to extend implementation of a luxury tax on recreational vessels in excess of five meters instead of in excess of 10 meters.

Labor Reform

Government insists to legislating changes to collective bargaining agreements this fall; creditors don’t want any changes to already agreed labor framework and demand that any changes be negotiated with the three creditor institutions first -- the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the EU.
Privatizations

This is where the government appears to fully adopt the creditors’ demand for all agreed sales of state assets to proceed, including transferring the state’s shares in the Hellenic Telecommunication Organization SA to the asset sales fund and selling regional airports under terms already agreed with a venture led by Fraport AG, the winning bidder already selected by the previous government.

source

Imagine yourself inside a hospital, facing a matter of life and death, yet the doctors have ignored you and expect a bribe. What do you do?

In Greece, when people are facing a life at risk, all they can do is pay ‘fakelaki’, small bribes to doctors. There seems to be no alternatives. Without ‘fakelaki’ or ‘little envelope’ stuffed with bribes, you can’t get treatment in hospitals, or secure a driving licence.

Individuals and companies can even bribe inspectors and evade taxes due to a poor system of tax inspections in Greece, says Transparency International, the global coalition against corruption. According to the data of Transparency International, the average bribe to a public servant cost 1,228 euros (1,372 dollars) in 2012. A bribe to get a drivers licence tends to cost between 100 euros (111 dollars) and 300 euros (335 dollars), and to get surgery in a hospital can cost between 100 euros (111 dollars) and 30,000 euros (33,537 dollars).

‘Fakelaki’ has been a trend. These actions tend to go unpunished. Even if authorities were set up to encourage reports of corruption, there were only a few who had the courage to break the silence.

The Greek people have realised the problem. But can the weeds be taken out to make the country more fertile for growth?

source
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 13:29:08
July 10 2015 13:24 GMT
#3668
Thought the article was going to compare the deal now made with 'fakelaki', Greece being the patient, EU being the doctors.


All Eurozone is doing is set the stage for the biggest tax evasion competition in Greece ever. And of course when it happens, they are going to blame Tsipras. I can already imagine another Verhofstadt speech.
c0ldfusion
Profile Joined October 2010
United States8293 Posts
July 10 2015 13:32 GMT
#3669
On July 10 2015 22:17 Alcathous wrote:
If a state in the US was as broke as Greece, it wouldn't even be on the news, except when it was California.

It is not hard to fix economically.

Really not sure what you're trying to say and why you repeatedly go off topic. That analogy is not appropriate from any perspective whether it's political, cultural or economical.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 13:40:50
July 10 2015 13:40 GMT
#3670
That's so wrong to say. If Greece was just a weaker economic area in the UsoE, this all would not be an issue.

No one in Germany is complaining that eastern Germany is holding them back.
No market can speculate against Wallonia.

If this wasn't about contagion; contagion of doubt in the Euro, contagion of deficit spending, contagion of anti-austerity, contagion of anti-EU, contagion of radical left, depending on your taste of reality, this wouldn't be an issue even for a collection of independent countries.

So when someone comes and says this problem is extremely hard to solve, that's absurd and needs to be pointed out.
It is like saying the Israel-Palestine conflict is 'extremely complex', just because one side refuses to resolve it.

Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
July 10 2015 13:42 GMT
#3671
On July 10 2015 22:16 unsaeglich wrote:
unlikely, the next president (probably Merkel herself) will delay the problems even further (aka European "solution"). Though it's France telling Germany what to do, as usual.



France telling Germany what to do? Sounds like German spin.

You say it is unlikely, then you agree, but you seem not to realize it. Also odd. Why are European delaying solving the problems? They did nothing about the banks, only a little bit about the eurozone, and all the wrong things about Greece.
unsaeglich
Profile Joined June 2015
260 Posts
July 10 2015 13:43 GMT
#3672
Silly, if the EU would be governed by one President there would be no problem. Just send some soilders there, inprison the corrupt goverment, reduce costs of hotels/ flights for summer, have a nice province full of eu tourrists.

User was warned for this post
c0ldfusion
Profile Joined October 2010
United States8293 Posts
July 10 2015 13:49 GMT
#3673
Compared to the entire European economy as a whole, Greece is just a blip. Everyone agrees with you on that.
But there is no such thing as UsoE.

In this reality that we're living in, the Greek crisis is complex and hard to solve in a political sense.
unsaeglich
Profile Joined June 2015
260 Posts
July 10 2015 13:50 GMT
#3674
On July 10 2015 22:42 Alcathous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2015 22:16 unsaeglich wrote:
unlikely, the next president (probably Merkel herself) will delay the problems even further (aka European "solution"). Though it's France telling Germany what to do, as usual.



France telling Germany what to do? Sounds like German spin.

You say it is unlikely, then you agree, but you seem not to realize it. Also odd. Why are European delaying solving the problems? They did nothing about the banks, only a little bit about the eurozone, and all the wrong things about Greece.

The EU is dictated by every country, and thus incompetent as fuck. Negligible countries like greece can cause a giant uproar.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 13:59:08
July 10 2015 13:52 GMT
#3675
On March 21th 2015, a new law (4321/2015) was published in the Greek Official Gazette, addressing tax evasion and avoidance committed by multinationals. This law introduces a withholding tax of 26% (equal to the rate of the company tax) on transactions with tax havens or transactions with letterbox companies that have been set up precisely to avoid taxes in Greece. If one can prove that no letterbox companies were involved, it is possible to recover the withholding tax within three months(1). Criticism from the big financial consultant companies followed soon thereafter.

The Troika document ‘Actions to be taken in consultation with EC/ECB/IMF staff’ (June 26th 2015) was the last proposal to Greece before the referendum. It shows the intention of the Troika to reverse these measures. Even more remarkable: simultaneously, the Troika is asking the Greeks to raise the corporate tax rate from 26% to 28%. This means, in fact, that they are demanding a higher tax rate for the local Greek companies, but are ignoring tax evasion by multinationals.


http://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20150709_01769514
http://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20150709_01770521

English variant:
https://defeiten.s-p-a.be/article/the-troikas-secret-agenda-not-saving-greece-but-/


Greece is now forced to turn back the law trying to close loopholes for multinational tax evasion using mailbox companies.
YoureFired
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States822 Posts
July 10 2015 13:53 GMT
#3676
On July 10 2015 22:50 unsaeglich wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2015 22:42 Alcathous wrote:
On July 10 2015 22:16 unsaeglich wrote:
unlikely, the next president (probably Merkel herself) will delay the problems even further (aka European "solution"). Though it's France telling Germany what to do, as usual.



France telling Germany what to do? Sounds like German spin.

You say it is unlikely, then you agree, but you seem not to realize it. Also odd. Why are European delaying solving the problems? They did nothing about the banks, only a little bit about the eurozone, and all the wrong things about Greece.

The EU is dictated by every country, and thus incompetent as fuck. Negligible countries like greece can cause a giant uproar.

Imagine an Articles of Confederation gov't rather than a Constitutional one. Much more unanimity from much more heterogeneous countries is required to find agreement, which makes it less strong (which is good, and bad; good for the country's retaining a large degree of sovereignty, bad that they cannot solve collective problems unless if benefits a good number of individuals)
ted cruz is the zodiac killer
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
July 10 2015 13:55 GMT
#3677
On July 10 2015 20:56 c0ldfusion wrote:
Where are the Greeks in the thread?

Is there outrage? is there consignment?

Don't think that any Greek would want to get into an anti-Greece circlejerk. They will just get mobbed by dissenters and everyone knows that.

On July 10 2015 22:40 Alcathous wrote:
So when someone comes and says this problem is extremely hard to solve, that's absurd and needs to be pointed out.
It is like saying the Israel-Palestine conflict is 'extremely complex', just because one side refuses to resolve it.


One side took bad loans and had an economy and plan of government that would never allow them to repay. The other side gave bad loans that no sane bank with any form of due diligence would think is a good idea, and then has went about collecting the money in a very shark-like manner by demanding reforms that cripple the debtor's economy in the long run.

Greece did much wrong, but it's not at all fair to say that it is the only one responsible for what is happening right now.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 14:06:50
July 10 2015 14:01 GMT
#3678
The problem is the solution not happening. Questions of guilt play no role, except in delaying the solution. It doesn't matter who is to blame.

Greece holds no part of the key to the solution to this problem. Hence they cannot be blamed for not solving the problem.


It is like a house being on fire, Jantje having a big water hose blaming Pietje he left on the stove and caused the fire, and thyus refusing to let Pietje use the his water hose to put down the water since after all Pietje is guilty thus Piertje should solve the problem.


The idea of guilt is extremely dangerous. It doesn't even matter if it is right or wrng. You can';t have a European Union with it.
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 14:14:05
July 10 2015 14:13 GMT
#3679
On July 10 2015 23:01 Alcathous wrote:
The problem is the solution not happening. Questions of guilt play no role, except in delaying the solution. It doesn't matter who is to blame.

Greece holds no part of the key to the solution to this problem. Hence they cannot be blamed for not solving the problem.
This gets really old from you Greece guys.
Why wont you realize that there is no 'solution'?
No country will ever pay back its dept, not Germany, not Greece, not anyone without oil or gas!
'Living in dept under the thump of the creditors' is the normal way of the world economy, and that will not change however many referendums you vote in (unless some world revolution after the global crash resets everything).
This 'crisis' is 'solved' the moment Greece can borrow money for 6% or less to pay the interest on its dept.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-10 14:17:01
July 10 2015 14:13 GMT
#3680
I'm from the Netherlands, you know, the 'bad cop' Germany can point to when it tries to play 'Good Cop'.

Sorry for being educated and picking a name from the Iliad. Just sounds cooler than something like 'lord_nibbler' and it hoped it would make me look intelligent, rather than a lazy Greek. I guess I should have given it more thought. You'd never know some bike-stealing fat-dripping sausage-nibbling German would come out and attack me for it.

User was temp banned for this post.
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