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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9279 Posts
On July 10 2015 04:23 maartendq wrote: That would be hilarious. A nation-wide referendum every time the Greek government wants to make a decision. Isn't it how they decide things in Switzerland? | ||
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Kenpark
Germany2350 Posts
On July 10 2015 04:47 andrewlt wrote: So from what I'm hearing, Tsipras is trading the no vote for some debt relief. I guess that's a plausible endgame for his referendum, considering he now has some opposition votes on his side. That seems the only available option. Merkel wants them in the Euro. It's not like it would make any difference the next 20 years anyway. Cant just relief too much or Goldman Sachs will call tomorrow giving them money. | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Greek media: Reforms plans sent Posted at 21:08 (UK time) Greek media is reporting that the government has sent the reforms proposal to the EU, ahead of tonight's deadline. The proposals concede to almost all the creditors' terms, reports say. We'll let you know as soon as we have more details. that's all we know so far, but should be in more detail later tonight. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10850 Posts
On July 10 2015 05:17 Sent. wrote: Isn't it how they decide things in Switzerland? Only if there is a petition with enough support. We don't just vote about anything, we still have a parlament with 2 chambers and all that stuff and they actually do stuff (or at least should)  . | ||
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Maenander
Germany4926 Posts
On July 10 2015 02:40 Integra wrote: It really speaks for itself just how bad things are in Europe when something like this is considered 'Great News'. EDIT: And even the entire premise of the article is faulty, the reason for Spains improvement is due to France easing up on austerity earlier this year when they decided to start deficit politics once again by taking on more loans to boost investments in France which naturally lead to higher imports which Spain always have been one of the main exporters. It's through France increased demand of import from Spain that has lead to less unemployment, Fascinating causality chain. France is indeed the main export target for Spain, but an actual look at the numbers released so far makes me doubt that your scenario is likely. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/exports-to-france Unfortunately those numbers are not recent enough. 1. France's imports from Spain would have to have increased a lot to have a significant impact on the Spanish economy, it's still only ~15% of their exports. 2. This increase would have to be a result of increased government spending in France. How much has it actually gone up? Is it really the cause for the higher imports from Spain? | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6263 Posts
On July 10 2015 03:39 Integra wrote: That report is out of date (its from 2011) and has since then been debunked, IMF said back in 2013 that they had miss-judged the situation in Greece and that the austerity measures had been too severe reason being that most of the losses were in the private sector and not in the public sector, second reason was that the public spending numbers were inflated since allot of its spending was due to saving the banks by buying their loans and transferring it over to the public debt sheet. And yet in their debt sustainability analysis the reason they give for the debt being unsustainable is that the Greeks haven't done all the promised reforms. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On July 10 2015 05:35 Maenander wrote: Fascinating causality chain. France is indeed the main export target for Spain, but an actual look at the numbers released so far makes me doubt that your scenario is likely. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/exports-to-france Unfortunately those numbers are not recent enough. 1. France's imports from Spain would have to have increased a lot to have a significant impact on the Spanish economy, it's still only ~15% of their exports. 2. This increase would have to be a result of increased government spending in France. How much has it actually gone up? Is it really the cause for the higher imports from Spain? You can add the low price of gaz and the lower euro, and you have your growth. | ||
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Integra
Sweden5626 Posts
On July 10 2015 05:43 RvB wrote: And yet in their debt sustainability analysis the reason they give for the debt being unsustainable is that the Greeks haven't done all the promised reforms. Which in this case has to be mostly private sector reforms, if its not then it won't have any effect. Reforms are okay as long as they are the right ones. What the report mentioned above said was that most of the reform had to be performed on the public sector which later was retracted and now reforms are focused on the private sector instead. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Sent - but not signed? (BBC) Some doubts are emerging about the delivery of the Greek proposals. Asked if he has received them, Martin Selmayr, the head of cabinet for European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, says in the first of two tweets "Not yet". Then he points out that signed letters are needed. So it seems that even if he has received the new proposals, he may regard them as incomplete. the fuck is that. | ||
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Integra
Sweden5626 Posts
wait wat...? I can see it now: Greece defaults; Failed to deliver proposal before deadline due to proposal not being signed by Greece. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
 Clarified and being assessed right now. But had me laughing | ||
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Integra
Sweden5626 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On July 10 2015 03:39 Integra wrote: That report is out of date (its from 2011) and has since then been debunked, IMF said back in 2013 that they had miss-judged the situation in Greece and that the austerity measures had been too severe reason being that most of the losses were in the private sector and not in the public sector, second reason was that the public spending numbers were inflated since allot of its spending was due to saving the banks by buying their loans and transferring it over to the public debt sheet. If the tax rates were too high in 2011, they are higher now, and they are proposing even further increases, how is it not relevant? Someone earlier was saying that the troika were trying to get blood from a stone, but really that has been the Greek government's strategy with its taxpayers. | ||
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Integra
Sweden5626 Posts
On July 10 2015 07:16 cLutZ wrote: If the tax rates were too high in 2011, they are higher now, and they are proposing even further increases, how is it not relevant? You have to explain how this relates to my two previous quoted posts and how it affects the reasoning given in them since I really can't see a connection right now. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22097 Posts
Only to accept the original proposal anyway? | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On July 10 2015 07:21 Integra wrote: You have to explain how this relates to my two previous quoted posts and how it affects the reasoning given in them since I really can't see a connection right now. So basically it comes down to this: The Greek populace, in particular its private sector, is already being taxed at unsustainably high rates, which caused the development of a huge black market and tax evasion. Raising tax rates is unlikely to generate substantial additional tax revenue. They might even reduce tax revenue by driving an even higher % of Greeks into the black market. All the negotiating positions should acknowledge that right now, for all realistic purposes, additional revenues are unrealistic. Because Greeks cannot raise more revenue, and still don't have a primary surplus, they need to cut government spending to close that gap. This necessarily will reduce GDP because GDP has government spending as one of its components (convenient I know). However, you don't think this worked, in Europe, as a whole, it certainly hasn't happened. Now, for Greece, government spending has decreased since 2008 as a share of GDP, but it raised taxes while doing that...so sane austerity has never actually been tried. | ||
Kipsate
Netherlands45349 Posts
so did he just amass support for a referendum to vote no only to accept pretty much the original proposal eh. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Alcathous
Netherlands219 Posts
On July 10 2015 08:29 Kipsate wrote: wait wait wait so did he just amass support for a referendum to vote no only to accept pretty much the original proposal eh. I don't know what happened, no one does. But if this is the case, it must be that Eurogroup moved not an inch and dared Tsipras to let the free market destroy what was left of the Greek economy. If true then maybe the Greeks are poor negotiators, but surely shame on Eurogroup for almost gambling away Europe and the Greek economy. In the end it may be that Tsipras sacrificed the Greek economy to save Europe. Would be a travesty. If so, surely the spin teams will come in quickly and make minced meat out of Tsipras, as he did nothing for Greece and the Eurogroup will also have won the regime chance they so desperately wanted. You also got to wonder with a culture were tax evasion is already rampant, where you cut on government institutions, including the revenue service, and then you introduce absurdly high tax rates, what is going to happen. Why don't they just cut pensions to 0 and let the Red Cross and UN WFP save the Greeks from the worst. The good news is that the banks, that were bailed out after causing the financial crisis, can now buy Greek airports and harbors for prices similar to what the Russian oligarchs had to pay to buy soviet state industry. Of course with all those cuts and tax raises, what about the reforms the Europeans so demanded from Greece? Is there any money left to pay for the reforms the Greek economy desperately needs? | ||
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