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On July 06 2015 06:53 c0ldfusion wrote:
What do you guys think is the next move from the rest of EU now that the Greek public has voted "no"?
I doubt anyone really knows, including Merkel, Hollande, Renzi & co. As for what I think, a bad short term compromise into another round of idiotic negociations, prolonging the boring mediatic circus for a few more months. I guess a return to the drachma would at least avoid that. A pity Syriza didn't spend the last 6 months preparing for that...
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On July 06 2015 06:56 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 06:53 c0ldfusion wrote:
What do you guys think is the next move from the rest of EU now that the Greek public has voted "no"? Nothing imo. The ball is in Greece's court. The EU will probably mostly be busy preparing for a Greek exit from the Eurozone.
hmm didn't they say leading up to this referendum that a "no" vote doesn't necessarily mean a Greece exit?
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On July 06 2015 06:58 corumjhaelen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 06:53 c0ldfusion wrote:
What do you guys think is the next move from the rest of EU now that the Greek public has voted "no"? I doubt anyone really knows, including Merkel, Hollande, Renzi & co. As for what I think, a bad short term compromise into another round of idiotic negociations, prolonging the boring mediatic circus for a few more months. I guess a return to the drachma would at least avoid that. A pity Syriza didn't spend the last 6 months preparing for that...
So you think EU will allow for some short term concessions to keep Greece afloat but ultimately hold firm on their terms?
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On July 06 2015 06:17 Alcathous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 05:42 Elizar wrote:On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless. OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power. It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza. Of course they are reckless. They put 240 bn of their taxpayers money into Greece, which is now insolvent, and want to increase it with 50 bn more with no solution in sight.They are reckless as well if they destroy a country and the European dream over an irrelevant economy of 10 million people that can easily be saved. They are reckless if they pick the ideology of austerity over the fate of an entire country. They are untrustworthy if they go and negotiate now, as they have claimed before there will be no new negotiations in the case of a 'no' vote and that it is impossible to negotiate with Syriza/current Greek government.
you seem to think that it'll stop? We will keep on giving them money one way or the other. Either there's going to be some kind of deal, which means more money anyways. At the very least those 50bn + the interest we already agreed to pay back (that profit you're talking about) alongside debt writeoff after reforms have started somewhat down the line.
OR shit goes down south and they need money for humanitarian needs because of a new currency. Just imagine how expensive medication and stuff will become if it really devalues as much as people seem to think it would if implemented.
Both scenarios involve greece getting money.
Hence people saying that you're delusional to think we should just consider those 240bn, treat it as if it stays like that and think about how to get as little of a loss as possible.
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Forgive my ignorance, but as part of reading up on this Greece news I didn't realize that Finland was the only Scandinavian country to join the Eurozone. Why was that? Thanks.
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On July 06 2015 06:59 c0ldfusion wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 06:56 Gorsameth wrote:On July 06 2015 06:53 c0ldfusion wrote:
What do you guys think is the next move from the rest of EU now that the Greek public has voted "no"? Nothing imo. The ball is in Greece's court. The EU will probably mostly be busy preparing for a Greek exit from the Eurozone. hmm didn't they say leading up to this referendum that a "no" vote doesn't necessarily mean a Greece exit?
I have seen numerous statements from Eurozone members that a No will lead to an exit.
6 days old
Anyway the likely scenario is that the Greek banks will run out of money in the next few days. The ECB will not give them more money and Greece will be forced to print Drachma's to sustain its population which will be a Greek exit.
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On July 06 2015 07:03 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 06:17 Alcathous wrote:On July 06 2015 05:42 Elizar wrote:On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless. OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power. It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza. Of course they are reckless. They put 240 bn of their taxpayers money into Greece, which is now insolvent, and want to increase it with 50 bn more with no solution in sight.They are reckless as well if they destroy a country and the European dream over an irrelevant economy of 10 million people that can easily be saved. They are reckless if they pick the ideology of austerity over the fate of an entire country. They are untrustworthy if they go and negotiate now, as they have claimed before there will be no new negotiations in the case of a 'no' vote and that it is impossible to negotiate with Syriza/current Greek government. you seem to think that it'll stop? We will keep on giving them money one way or the other. Either there's going to be some kind of deal, which means more money anyways. At the very least those 50bn + the interest we already agreed to pay back (that profit you're talking about) alongside debt writeoff after reforms have started somewhat down the line. OR shit goes down south and they need money for humanitarian needs because of a new currency. Just imagine how expensive medication and stuff will become if it really devalues as much as people seem to think it would if implemented. Both scenarios involve greece getting money. Hence people saying that you're delusional to think we should just consider those 240bn, treat it as if it stays like that and think about how to get as little of a loss as possible.
I agree. I definitely don't see Greece being left out to dry - at least not initially. It would be inhumane to let medical costs skyrocket.
What is the feeling from the general public outside Greece though, are you guys sick of this Greek debt stuff or do you think more effort should be made to keep them from exiting?
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On July 06 2015 07:03 Toadesstern wrote:
Hence people saying that you're delusional to think we should just consider those 240bn, treat it as if it stays like that and think about how to get as little of a loss as possible.
You are liar. The position you defend holds the notion that debt restructuring, even delay of pay, can't even be on the table.
That's what I argue against. And then you come and say 0 euro will be paid. That then kills any mature discussion as that idea comes from an alien universe..
I am wording it exactly that was to suggest it won't end there. It will mean 5 more years of austerity. economy shrinkage while debt keeps increasing.
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Finland is technically not Scandinavian (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden) - it is however part of The North (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Iceland).
As for the countries in The North:
Denmark: We tied our crown to the euro (within 2.5% IIRC), but we preferred to keep our own money (for no real good reason other than we like it).
Sweden: Also held a referendum but that was concerning adopting ERM II which they would require to be eligible to enter the Eurozone. They voted no and thus consequently also haven't tied their currency to the euro.
Norway/Iceland: Not member of EU
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I'm pretty happy they chose "no". I know a lot of people in europe are like "uhh this is our taxes paying the greek debt and now they don't want to pay anything back, fuck them" but I don't care about that at all  Now what they should do is go bankrupt and leave the eurozone but unfortunately I don't think it will happen.
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On July 06 2015 07:15 Ghostcom wrote:
Finland is technically not Scandinavian (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden) - it is however part of The North (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Iceland).
As for the countries in The North:
Denmark: We tied our crown to the euro (within 2.5% IIRC), but we preferred to keep our own money (for no real good reason other than we like it).
Sweden: Also held a referendum but that was concerning adopting ERM II which they would require to be eligible to enter the Eurozone. They voted no and thus consequently also haven't tied their currency to the euro.
Norway/Iceland: Not member of EU
Thanks, good to know.
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On July 06 2015 07:13 Alcathous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 07:03 Toadesstern wrote:
Hence people saying that you're delusional to think we should just consider those 240bn, treat it as if it stays like that and think about how to get as little of a loss as possible. You are liar. The position you defend holds the notion that debt restructuring, even delay of pay, can't even be on the table. That's what I argue against. And then you come and say 0 euro will be paid. That then kills any mature discussion as that idea comes from an alien universe.. I am wording it exactly that was to suggest it won't end there. It will mean 5 more years of austerity. economy shrinkage while debt keeps increasing.
I have never said that debt restructuring or delay of pay can't be on the table. I have always said that it will happen once they started reforms, just not before that.
If you understood it that way you misunderstood me really badly or are mixing me up with someone else. I've been saying those 240bn should be treated as gone for the longest time as we will be putting more new money/time in there than we'll ever get out/time.
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On July 06 2015 07:08 c0ldfusion wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 07:03 Toadesstern wrote:On July 06 2015 06:17 Alcathous wrote:On July 06 2015 05:42 Elizar wrote:On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless. OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power. It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza. Of course they are reckless. They put 240 bn of their taxpayers money into Greece, which is now insolvent, and want to increase it with 50 bn more with no solution in sight.They are reckless as well if they destroy a country and the European dream over an irrelevant economy of 10 million people that can easily be saved. They are reckless if they pick the ideology of austerity over the fate of an entire country. They are untrustworthy if they go and negotiate now, as they have claimed before there will be no new negotiations in the case of a 'no' vote and that it is impossible to negotiate with Syriza/current Greek government. you seem to think that it'll stop? We will keep on giving them money one way or the other. Either there's going to be some kind of deal, which means more money anyways. At the very least those 50bn + the interest we already agreed to pay back (that profit you're talking about) alongside debt writeoff after reforms have started somewhat down the line. OR shit goes down south and they need money for humanitarian needs because of a new currency. Just imagine how expensive medication and stuff will become if it really devalues as much as people seem to think it would if implemented. Both scenarios involve greece getting money. Hence people saying that you're delusional to think we should just consider those 240bn, treat it as if it stays like that and think about how to get as little of a loss as possible. I agree. I definitely don't see Greece being left out to dry - at least not initially. It would be inhumane to let medical costs skyrocket. What is the feeling from the general public outside Greece though, are you guys sick of this Greek debt stuff or do you think more effort should be made to keep them from exiting?
In general people are tired of paying the bill for Greece's government incompetence.
A Greek exit will probably be seen as a relief that it is over rather then some terrible event that should have been prevented.
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On July 06 2015 07:21 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 07:08 c0ldfusion wrote:On July 06 2015 07:03 Toadesstern wrote:On July 06 2015 06:17 Alcathous wrote:On July 06 2015 05:42 Elizar wrote:On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless. OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power. It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza. Of course they are reckless. They put 240 bn of their taxpayers money into Greece, which is now insolvent, and want to increase it with 50 bn more with no solution in sight.They are reckless as well if they destroy a country and the European dream over an irrelevant economy of 10 million people that can easily be saved. They are reckless if they pick the ideology of austerity over the fate of an entire country. They are untrustworthy if they go and negotiate now, as they have claimed before there will be no new negotiations in the case of a 'no' vote and that it is impossible to negotiate with Syriza/current Greek government. you seem to think that it'll stop? We will keep on giving them money one way or the other. Either there's going to be some kind of deal, which means more money anyways. At the very least those 50bn + the interest we already agreed to pay back (that profit you're talking about) alongside debt writeoff after reforms have started somewhat down the line. OR shit goes down south and they need money for humanitarian needs because of a new currency. Just imagine how expensive medication and stuff will become if it really devalues as much as people seem to think it would if implemented. Both scenarios involve greece getting money. Hence people saying that you're delusional to think we should just consider those 240bn, treat it as if it stays like that and think about how to get as little of a loss as possible. I agree. I definitely don't see Greece being left out to dry - at least not initially. It would be inhumane to let medical costs skyrocket. What is the feeling from the general public outside Greece though, are you guys sick of this Greek debt stuff or do you think more effort should be made to keep them from exiting? In general people are tired of paying the bill for Greece's government incompetence. A Greek exit will probably be seen as a relief that it is over rather then some terrible event that should have been prevented.
Well at least the Greek economy is relatively small within the Eurozone. The thought seems to be that an exit would be contained.
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How concerned are you guys about contagion from a policy standpoint?
Eurogroup needs to proceed carefully from here, if they stonewall the Greek negotiators they could be viewed as inhumane but if they blink too quickly this episode would encourage further moral hazard behavior from other members of the Eurozone. There has to be some more positioning in the next few weeks from the EU leadership.
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Spain is expected to grow at 2.8% of GDP. Portugal has cash reserves to surf the wave for at least 6 months before going back to the markets and is expected to grow >1.5%. Interest rates may go up, but I'd say that Grexit may already be partly priced into those.
Of course all this could change if the Eurozone economies plunge into a recession, but I'd say contagion is unlikely.
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On July 06 2015 08:44 warding wrote:
Spain is expected to grow at 2.8% of GDP. Portugal has cash reserves to surf the wave for at least 6 months before going back to the markets and is expected to grow >1.5%. Interest rates may go up, but I'd say that Grexit may already be partly priced into those.
Of course all this could change if the Eurozone economies plunge into a recession, but I'd say contagion is unlikely.
I wonder what the sentiment is like in Portugal on the Greek vote.
If I recall, Portugal and Ireland accepted their deals in the past. The Greeks are the lone example of this level of defiance?
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Spain is going to be interesting this December when they hold general elections. If they get a podemos government there may be the chance of having a similar scenario to Greece I guess. If they elect a centrist government I guess there's no chance of 'contagion'.
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It will depend a lot on what happens now in Greece. Atm the populist opposition parties in Portugal/Italy are celebrating a victory but that will quickly evaporate if Greece falls deep and hard.
Its one of the reasons why the Eurozone is holding such a firm stance. Greece's fight against the Eurozone has to be a failure or else those parties risk causing a cascade reaction.
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On July 06 2015 08:53 Gorsameth wrote:
It will depend a lot on what happens now in Greece. Atm the populist opposition parties in Portugal/Italy are celebrating a victory but that will quickly evaporate if Greece falls deep and hard.
Its one of the reasons why the Eurozone is holding such a firm stance. Greece's fight against the Eurozone has to be a failure or else those parties risk causing a cascade reaction.
This when the money stops going in to greece people will face reality.
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EPT
