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On July 06 2015 04:52 Alcathous wrote:
Indeed 'if'. But the Greeks voted against austerity, because it doesn't work and has reduced Greece's ability to pay debt.
Austerity is a political ideology with no basis in reality. You can't find any economist in support of it.
I'm pretty sure there are plenty of economists who support the notion of austerity, and in fact I'd say it's hard to argue against the importance of applying certain austerity measures. Not sure if full out austerity like what is demanded of Greece has any basis in reality though, but I'm forced to assume that many economists think it'll work, otherwise they wouldn't ask anything like that of Greece knowing that it wouldn't work. There's nothing for them to gain out of that.
It seems to me like the debt restructuring thing makes perfect sense from the perspective of the EU. Pouring money in a sinking Greece won't work, and politicians of Greece don't have the political capital to get the people to adhere to the measures that'd make stimulus a viable option for the EU. And at this point, low confidence further undermines Greece's chances to get a decent deal even if it miraculously managed to get its population to agree to be fiscally responsible.
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It is as if many of you in here were in favor of a deal that COULD NOT work out. IMF spelled that one out for everyone to see. What would have been the point of Greece accepting that deal, if even the creditor who crunches the numbers says it'd have been pointless (no more than the usual extend and pretend)?
How about working out a proper deal then? No? Why?
Anyway, a comment on the referendum: Regime change operation failed horribly. For now. I expect round 2 to continue from tomorrow, with Europe doing nothing much and just waiting for a collapse. And you guys will apparently be all for that, even though Greece does want a proper deal, even though the previous deal's numbers didn't work out, per IMF. The mind, once again, boggles.
edit: The good scenario looks like this: Greece does get a deal, one with more austerity than the one it could've signed a week ago to account for capital controls. But it also gets the issue of debt resolved, or at least a solid timeframe on how to solve it. Only way a deal gets done politically. Economically it still won't make a lot of sense but what can do you, politicians can't just accept they fucked it all up now can they.
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Well shit happens when you loan people money sometimes. You live in a democracy. Vote in people who wont make the same mistake and tax the bailed out banks heavily for 10 years so you get your cash back.
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After reading the % of who voted no I now think EU (Read Germany and France) are in some serious shit and that Greece will default if not a deal is made that Greece accepts.
One of the main question since austerity was introduced as a means in the EU crisis is that the funding of austerity has been dictated by class politics and how that would affect EU's recovery;
Basically it's been the poor who payed the higher price and as you went up the chain to the very rich they actually pay very little, if anything. Since the recovery has mostly been based on the poor, cut pays, kick people, deconstruct the welfare state etc, There is only so much you can cut before these people hit rock bottom and a actual default is just one step bellow what they already are experiencing which seems to have happened in Greece.
The majority of the No voters in Greece was young people and the old people who had their pension taken away while the Yes sayers were rich people and the banks. For one group, the no, which is the majority a Default is basically the same financial wise as taking further austerity measures and the fact that they don't seem to own anything anyway so they don't have anything to lose.
It could simply be that Greece has been driven so far that a majority of its population actually perceive more austerity as equal to a default with the small difference that austerity still will leave them with huge debts as compared with a default they at least will be debt free.
I seriously don't think these people believe they have anything more to lose and they will sink Greece if a deal is not made that they think will benefit them.
+ Show Spoiler +
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I agree with the above. 2010 rich people would have lost a lost, 2015 poor people will lose twice as much (not to mention the tradgedy in Greece.)
But it is what it is. But in hindsight it can be read as a way to stall and handover the debt to European taxpayers.
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On July 06 2015 05:06 Integra wrote:After reading the % of who voted no I now think EU (Read Germany and France) are in some serious shit and that Greece will default if not a deal is made that Greece accepts. One of the main question since austerity was introduced as a means in the EU crisis is that the funding of austerity has been dictated by class politics and how that would affect EU's recovery; Basically it's been the poor who payed the higher price and as you went up the chain to the very rich they actually pay very little, if anything. Since the recovery has mostly been based on the poor, cut pays, kick people, deconstruct the welfare state etc, There is only so much you can cut before these people hit rock bottom and a actual default is just one step bellow what they already are experiencing which seems to have happened in Greece. The majority of the No voters in Greece was young people and the old people who had their pension taken away while the Yes sayers were rich people and the banks. For one group, the no, which is the majority a Default is basically the same financial wise as taking further austerity measures and the fact that they don't seem to own anything anyway so they don't have anything to lose. It could simply be that Greece has been driven so far that a majority of its population actually perceive more austerity as equal to a default with the small difference that austerity still will leave them with huge debts as compared with a default they at least will be debt free. I seriously don't think these people believe they have anything more to lose and they will sink Greece if a deal is not made that they think will benefit them. + Show Spoiler +
It's not just the poor, the whole middle class is eroding, and fast, which is not a good thing at all (it's also happening in the US, and at a far faster rate). Additionally, you have to keep in mind that it is much easier to get the money of those who do not have the knowhow and the connections to move it off-shore. Taxing the rich is very difficult in an age where capital is incredibly mobile.
Greece actually still has a lot to lose, much more than the Greeks imagine. As has been mentioned before, it's not the northern countries of the EU that form the hardline against concessions to Greece: it's the poorer EU memberstates in the East that actually did put up with austerity.
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On July 06 2015 04:55 Derez wrote:
Now lets hold referendums in all other euro memberstates with the question 'do you want to give more money to greece?'. Following the greek govt logic it really strengthens our negotiating position if there is a no.
I m not sure you understood but we gave no money to Greece. You all anti Greek are not even consistant : I didn t saw you cry at Merkel when she voted for the euro countries (Greece included) to buy junk actions from europeans banks (mainly french and Germans) and I didn t see you either when europe decided to engage the first few "plan" that basically revolved around buying the Greek debt from its private owners - french and german banks.
But when it s about helping actual people, you cry to no end.
True Europeans.
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On July 06 2015 05:14 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 04:55 Derez wrote:
Now lets hold referendums in all other euro memberstates with the question 'do you want to give more money to greece?'. Following the greek govt logic it really strengthens our negotiating position if there is a no. I m not sure you understood but we gave no money to Greece. You all anti Greek are not even consistant : I didn t saw you cry at Merkel when she voted for the euro countries (Greece included) to buy junk actions from europeans banks (mainly french and Germans) and I didn t see you either when europe decided to engage the first few "plan" that basically revolved around buying the Greek debt from its private owners - french and german banks. But when it s about helping actual people, you cry to no end. True Europeans.
Actions = stocks, right? I'm not sure if they have that word in English :o but yeah for comprehension-
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On July 06 2015 05:12 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 05:06 Integra wrote:After reading the % of who voted no I now think EU (Read Germany and France) are in some serious shit and that Greece will default if not a deal is made that Greece accepts. One of the main question since austerity was introduced as a means in the EU crisis is that the funding of austerity has been dictated by class politics and how that would affect EU's recovery; Basically it's been the poor who payed the higher price and as you went up the chain to the very rich they actually pay very little, if anything. Since the recovery has mostly been based on the poor, cut pays, kick people, deconstruct the welfare state etc, There is only so much you can cut before these people hit rock bottom and a actual default is just one step bellow what they already are experiencing which seems to have happened in Greece. The majority of the No voters in Greece was young people and the old people who had their pension taken away while the Yes sayers were rich people and the banks. For one group, the no, which is the majority a Default is basically the same financial wise as taking further austerity measures and the fact that they don't seem to own anything anyway so they don't have anything to lose. It could simply be that Greece has been driven so far that a majority of its population actually perceive more austerity as equal to a default with the small difference that austerity still will leave them with huge debts as compared with a default they at least will be debt free. I seriously don't think these people believe they have anything more to lose and they will sink Greece if a deal is not made that they think will benefit them. + Show Spoiler + It's not just the poor, the whole middle class is eroding, and fast, which is not a good thing at all (it's also happening in the US, and at a far faster rate). Additionally, you have to keep in mind that it is much easier to get the money of those who do not have the knowhow and the connections to move it off-shore. Taxing the rich is very difficult in an age where capital is incredibly mobile.
Only because politicians refuse to tax the movement of capital. I wonder why...
A tax system based completly on transactions would be intresting.
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On July 06 2015 03:50 Alcathous wrote:
For the sake of the future of the euro, it is now time for Merkel, Junker, Rutte, Draghi, Schauble, and Dijsselbloem to resign.
They made it quite clear that because of personal distrust, they can't reach a deal with Syriza and the Greek people made it quite clear they want Syriza to keep negotiating a deal.
What? Why?
It is a vote in Greece, not in the EU. If you think a vote in one country would decide that much then you are mistaken.
How about that: There won´t be money until Syriza accepts all terms? Of course, thats not whats going to happen, but it would be the right of the other 18 european states.
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What democratic mandate do Juncker, Draghi or Dijsselbloem have?
What is their basis for not making a deal that solves the problems of both sides and makes sure we don't have lost all our money.
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On July 06 2015 05:16 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 05:12 maartendq wrote:On July 06 2015 05:06 Integra wrote:After reading the % of who voted no I now think EU (Read Germany and France) are in some serious shit and that Greece will default if not a deal is made that Greece accepts. One of the main question since austerity was introduced as a means in the EU crisis is that the funding of austerity has been dictated by class politics and how that would affect EU's recovery; Basically it's been the poor who payed the higher price and as you went up the chain to the very rich they actually pay very little, if anything. Since the recovery has mostly been based on the poor, cut pays, kick people, deconstruct the welfare state etc, There is only so much you can cut before these people hit rock bottom and a actual default is just one step bellow what they already are experiencing which seems to have happened in Greece. The majority of the No voters in Greece was young people and the old people who had their pension taken away while the Yes sayers were rich people and the banks. For one group, the no, which is the majority a Default is basically the same financial wise as taking further austerity measures and the fact that they don't seem to own anything anyway so they don't have anything to lose. It could simply be that Greece has been driven so far that a majority of its population actually perceive more austerity as equal to a default with the small difference that austerity still will leave them with huge debts as compared with a default they at least will be debt free. I seriously don't think these people believe they have anything more to lose and they will sink Greece if a deal is not made that they think will benefit them. + Show Spoiler + It's not just the poor, the whole middle class is eroding, and fast, which is not a good thing at all (it's also happening in the US, and at a far faster rate). Additionally, you have to keep in mind that it is much easier to get the money of those who do not have the knowhow and the connections to move it off-shore. Taxing the rich is very difficult in an age where capital is incredibly mobile. Only because politicians refuse to tax the movement of capital. I wonder why... A tax system based completly on transactions would be intresting.
And preferably one that does not have some "unforeseen" loopholes. Then again, I'm afraid it would have to be an EU-wide tax to ever be effective.
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On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless.
OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power.
It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza.
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On July 06 2015 05:30 Alcathous wrote:
What democratic mandate do Juncker, Draghi or Dijsselbloem have?
What is their basis for not making a deal that solves the problems of both sides and makes sure we don't have lost all our money.
Getting too obvious now, you were better before.
4/10
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On July 06 2015 05:14 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 04:55 Derez wrote:
Now lets hold referendums in all other euro memberstates with the question 'do you want to give more money to greece?'. Following the greek govt logic it really strengthens our negotiating position if there is a no. I m not sure you understood but we gave no money to Greece. You all anti Greek are not even consistant : I didn t saw you cry at Merkel when she voted for the euro countries (Greece included) to buy junk actions from europeans banks (mainly french and Germans) and I didn t see you either when europe decided to engage the first few "plan" that basically revolved around buying the Greek debt from its private owners - french and german banks. But when it s about helping actual people, you cry to no end. True Europeans.
I'm not anti greek at all, I'm all for a sustainable solution (which the current EU offer is not). My problem is with the current greek government that seems to think a plebescite in Greece is somehow progress in any way. I don't object to their agenda, I object to their strategy. They had the opportunity, as an outsider party, to actually take on some of the structural problems in the Greek economy, and instead of showing that their capable all they've done is run their country further into the ground.
Not to mention that if every european country put the troika offer in a referendum to the people, half of europe would have rejected the offer out of hand. Somehow the greek people have to be heard, but merkel is supposed to ignore her electorate?
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On July 06 2015 05:42 Elizar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless. OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power. It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza.
it's quite simple, alcathous is delusional, or at any rate has a very poor understanding of the situation, so he continually spouts things that don't hold up to scrutiny.
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On July 06 2015 05:42 Elizar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2015 04:32 Alcathous wrote: Dijsselbloem has always said the door is still open (if Greece votes 'yes'), so now we see if indeed the eurozone still wants to talk, or if they are untrustworthy and reckless. OK, now I´m confused. You honestly say the EU zone might be untrustworthy or reckless, when these two words are the perfect decription of Syriza since they came to power. It was not the EU who one-sidedly broke the contracts. It was Syriza.
Of course they are reckless. They put 240 bn of their taxpayers money into Greece, which is now insolvent, and want to increase it with 50 bn more with no solution in sight.
They are reckless as well if they destroy a country and the European dream over an irrelevant economy of 10 million people that can easily be saved.
They are reckless if they pick the ideology of austerity over the fate of an entire country.
They are untrustworthy if they go and negotiate now, as they have claimed before there will be no new negotiations in the case of a 'no' vote and that it is impossible to negotiate with Syriza/current Greek government.
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Just imagine how much fun the vol traders in Hong Kong are having today
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What do you guys think is the next move from the rest of EU now that the Greek public has voted "no"?
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On July 06 2015 06:53 c0ldfusion wrote:
What do you guys think is the next move from the rest of EU now that the Greek public has voted "no"?
Nothing imo. The ball is in Greece's court.
The EU will probably mostly be busy preparing for a Greek exit from the Eurozone.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/A797/production/_84030924_84030923.jpg)
