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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On April 25 2022 10:33 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 09:47 Mohdoo wrote:
Now that Macron blew up Le Pen yet again, can we just skip the hype next time? It seems the only way Macron loses is if he is eliminated early. How long could Macron keep getting re-elected? Would his party keep dominance even after him? Based on how neoliberal elections work it's likely that Marion Maréchal wins next time around. But the left is still stronger than I expected so it's possible that things pan out differently. One possible outcome is left vs far right in the first round, far right wins second round and this is used to pressure normies into not voting left.
Lol néoliberal elections. How much more can you keep abusing and emptying of all content and intelligence that poor word?
The far right doesn’t win because a majority of voters absolutely despise them and their uber racist rethoric, and that a surprising number of french are not on board with the “anti system” extremist rethoric. The fact that populists are spred equally between the far left and far right also gives moderates a much bigger margin.
On April 25 2022 07:49 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 07:21 Nebuchad wrote:On April 25 2022 04:32 LegalLord wrote:
Disappointing but not at all surprising. The votes just weren’t there. No reason to be disappointed, she wouldn't have done any of the things you want You're certainly right policy-wise; I trust neither her competence nor intentions on that front. Would have been a nice thorn in the backside of the EU though, a solid minor moral victory were it to come to pass. That said, 8.5 7.5 p.p. improvement from last election is pretty solid. I did expect Le Pen to perform slightly worse than polled, but she managed to stay comfortably in the 40's in the final result. That's good news.
Yeah let’s give the country to fascists who want to evict half a million people who are not white enough from social housing and are paid by the Kremlin to stick it to the neoliberals.
Fun thought experiment to think who you guys would have supported in 1930.
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On April 25 2022 18:50 Artisreal wrote:
I always fail to see why people consider the horseshoe theory relevant.
The convergence is superficial at best and crumbles under scrutiny. While means can be similar, intent and goal are worlds apart and ignoring that is a key mistake I feel is made too easily for the sake of abbreviating conversation.
I'm by no means an expert on this, but I listen to the presidential debates and Mélenchon and Le Pen keep stressing the same things as far as I can tell: lowering or keeping the retirement age, lowering taxes for the poor, increasing subsidies. They both express distrust in global institutions and the EU. They also tend to use the same slogans that are associated with populism (difficult word): blaming the elites, standing up for the little guy etc.
That to me seems like substantial similarities. I saw a straw poll that said that Mélenchon voters in the first round would vote around 30% Le Pen, 30% Macron, 30% abstention. I bet that if you look at the same numbers from 5 years ago it would skew much more in favor of Macron and in 5 years much more in favor of Le Pen. But we'll see.
On April 25 2022 10:33 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 09:47 Mohdoo wrote:
Now that Macron blew up Le Pen yet again, can we just skip the hype next time? It seems the only way Macron loses is if he is eliminated early. How long could Macron keep getting re-elected? Would his party keep dominance even after him? Based on how neoliberal elections work it's likely that Marion Maréchal wins next time around.
Dude, you're so smart!
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On April 25 2022 18:29 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 07:49 LegalLord wrote:On April 25 2022 07:21 Nebuchad wrote:On April 25 2022 04:32 LegalLord wrote:
Disappointing but not at all surprising. The votes just weren’t there. No reason to be disappointed, she wouldn't have done any of the things you want You're certainly right policy-wise; I trust neither her competence nor intentions on that front. Would have been a nice thorn in the backside of the EU though, a solid minor moral victory were it to come to pass. That said, 8.5 7.5 p.p. improvement from last election is pretty solid. I did expect Le Pen to perform slightly worse than polled, but she managed to stay comfortably in the 40's in the final result. That's good news. What do you specifically hope that she would accomplish in the EU? Or would it be more of a symbolic victory? I think the RN takes it next time. The radical left and the right are so similar that many will switch over all the way when people perceive her as a normal candidate (the "de-demonisation" campaign as they say in France), instead of voting technocratic/liberal.
Well, judging from his earlier posts he wants the EU to crash and burn. Which is of course helped by the french electing Le Pen. Not in the interest of any sane person in Europe though.
While his pro Russia posting has decreased due to obvious reasons his anti eu stuff is still going strong I guess.
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On April 25 2022 19:51 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 18:50 Artisreal wrote:
I always fail to see why people consider the horseshoe theory relevant.
The convergence is superficial at best and crumbles under scrutiny. While means can be similar, intent and goal are worlds apart and ignoring that is a key mistake I feel is made too easily for the sake of abbreviating conversation. I'm by no means an expert on this, but I listen to the presidential debates and Mélenchon and Le Pen keep stressing the same things as far as I can tell: lowering or keeping the retirement age, lowering taxes for the poor, increasing subsidies. They both express distrust in global institutions and the EU. They also tend to use the same slogans that are associated with populism (difficult word): blaming the elites, standing up for the little guy etc. That to me seems like substantial similarities. I saw a straw poll that said that Mélenchon voters in the first round would vote around 30% Le Pen, 30% Macron, 30% abstention. I bet that if you look at the same numbers from 5 years ago it would skew much more in favor of Macron and in 5 years much more in favor of Le Pen. But we'll see. Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 10:33 Nebuchad wrote:On April 25 2022 09:47 Mohdoo wrote:
Now that Macron blew up Le Pen yet again, can we just skip the hype next time? It seems the only way Macron loses is if he is eliminated early. How long could Macron keep getting re-elected? Would his party keep dominance even after him? Based on how neoliberal elections work it's likely that Marion Maréchal wins next time around. Dude, you're so smart!
It's interesting to have them say similar words.
But that's what I mean when I say superficially. Suddenly, the pension with 63 only applies to people with great-great-grandparents that have been born in France.
When in power, nothing but their own gain matters. We see it with Trump, we see it with Johnson, we see it with Orban, we see it in Poland, we see it with the AfD in the German parliaments. It's destructive at best, playing the masses and focused on their own personal gain at worst.
Though more generally speaking, I actually agree with the horseshoe theory, in parts.
When a new (political) trend arises that came from a fringe belief, extremist that share said belief try to capture the movement for their own broader / secret agenda.
Hapenned with the Greens and pedophiles (80s), is happening with Greens and right wing (Nature and nurture, women lots of babies, nature for the Aryans, classic gendered roles, all that oppressive bullshit).
This happens until that movement weeds out the extremist points of view or until they successfully takte over the movement. The latter could be happening to the AfD, where the right wing fascist lunatics are ousting their antagonists.
So yes, in a microcosm or focusing on a subset or a subject, I believe there is a generous amount of overlap between right wing extremists and left wing extremists, insofar as their goal is to stay in power.
On a broader level, I think the respective goal is so different that it boggles my mind how theses two should somehow be the same.
In sum, intent, inherent dishonesty with a knack of stealing other movement's ideas, symbols and rethoric are things I, personally, ascribe to right wing people. That makes the difference between "the extremes" for me.
One should not forget that when talking about extremes to also ask who gets to decide what is called normal?
e: sorry that this sounds a bit rambly
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The EU wouldn't have to crash and burn (dramatic way of putting it) but it'd certainly help for its image if it stopped encroaching on national sovereignty, or lobby for common bond issuing in its usual one-size-fits-all approach.
Almost forgot, also the plans for its own military task force.
At least all vegetables look the same now. Priorities.
I thought these guys were satisfied with having free movement and trade among members. But apparently there are more unsavoury ambitions about.
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On April 25 2022 19:04 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 18:50 Artisreal wrote:
I always fail to see why people consider the horseshoe theory relevant.
The convergence is superficial at best and crumbles under scrutiny. While means can be similar, intent and goal are worlds apart and ignoring that is a key mistake I feel is made too easily for the sake of abbreviating conversation. It’s a useful trope for enlightened centrists to justify their ostensible centrism. Bar that there’s such wide, wide divergence that it just doesn’t work as a model/tool. I mean outside of maybe actual Stalinism vs the OG Nazis
I don’t think so. Le Pen and Mélenchon have actually a very similar discourse in many ways. They represent “the real people” which are being threatened by an interior ennemy. The globalized elites and the muslims for Le Pen, the out of touch establishment for Mélenchon. Problems are not complicated, they are very simple and have very simple solutions but the simple solutions are against the interests of the establishment, which is the only reason why they are not applied. The Americans are the bad ones and authoritarian leaders are not that bad, at least they are not part of the neoliberal cabale.
Finally let’s ignore basic arythmetics and every treaty, obligation, international partner and since we are at it, the constitution while drafting a program. It’s actually easier to get elected if you promise stuff that are totally irrealistic. Just wave the hand to every objection and say we’ll get the money from the elites. They are the baddies remember.
Remove the racism from Le Pen’s program and you get Mélenchon really. The battlefield in France is much more between moderates and populists than between right and left these days, and there is a very good reasons why the RN is full of former communists and former hard left folks. Both sides feed on the same resentment.
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You just forgot the part where LePen took a 180 turn to steal ideas from the left. Conveniently. But yeah, as said by others, enlightened centrism.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On April 25 2022 18:29 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 07:49 LegalLord wrote:On April 25 2022 07:21 Nebuchad wrote:On April 25 2022 04:32 LegalLord wrote:
Disappointing but not at all surprising. The votes just weren’t there. No reason to be disappointed, she wouldn't have done any of the things you want You're certainly right policy-wise; I trust neither her competence nor intentions on that front. Would have been a nice thorn in the backside of the EU though, a solid minor moral victory were it to come to pass. That said, 8.5 7.5 p.p. improvement from last election is pretty solid. I did expect Le Pen to perform slightly worse than polled, but she managed to stay comfortably in the 40's in the final result. That's good news. What do you specifically hope that she would accomplish in the EU? Or would it be more of a symbolic victory? I think the RN takes it next time. The radical left and the right are so similar that many will switch over all the way when people perceive her as a normal candidate (the "de-demonisation" campaign as they say in France), instead of voting technocratic/liberal.
Being realistic, I think the best Le Pen could accomplish would be to focus the bulk of the attention of the EU apparatus on being outraged at Le Pen, hobbling its ability to do anything else. A house divided against itself and all that. As I said, I trust neither her intent nor competence, so I wouldn't exactly expect France to change direction on anything important merely based on if she managed to edge out Macron. It takes a much more calculating politician to implement in a hostile environment like that.
Judging by Macron's post-election rhetoric the results were clearly too close for comfort. That's good; the consensus of the people towards a decidedly less EU-friendly position is in the long run far more important than which particular candidate manages to make the big breakthrough.
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So your hope is that the EU does nothing while Le Pen is in power?
A vision of ... nothing.
Really?
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United States42004 Posts
On April 25 2022 21:14 Vivax wrote:
The EU wouldn't have to crash and burn (dramatic way of putting it) but it'd certainly help for its image if it stopped encroaching on national sovereignty, or lobby for common bond issuing in its usual one-size-fits-all approach.
Almost forgot, also the plans for its own military task force.
At least all vegetables look the same now. Priorities.
I thought these guys were satisfied with having free movement and trade among members. But apparently there are more unsavoury ambitions about.
Please could you quote the text of the EU law that requires all vegetables to look the same. Also, if it turns out you can’t, please could you shut the fuck up.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On April 25 2022 23:26 Artisreal wrote:
So your hope is that the EU does nothing while Le Pen is in power?
A vision of ... nothing.
Really?
The goal, to be clear, is the end of the EU. But there's no magic mechanism by which Le Pen is elected and the EU suddenly ceases to exist, so we have to take this one step at a time. And that seems like about the extent of what she could realistically accomplish under a theoretical 2022 scenario where she had won.
We'll reach the goal by a different path since that didn't happen. There's more than one way to reach the desired end state.
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On April 26 2022 00:09 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 23:26 Artisreal wrote:
So your hope is that the EU does nothing while Le Pen is in power?
A vision of ... nothing.
Really? The goal, to be clear, is the end of the EU. But there's no magic mechanism by which Le Pen is elected and the EU suddenly ceases to exist, so we have to take this one step at a time. And that seems like about the extent of what she could realistically accomplish under a theoretical 2022 scenario where she had won. We'll reach the goal by a different path since that didn't happen. There's more than one way to reach the desired end state.
yes, that's out of the question. I can infer as much.
But that's it? Destruction of the EU?
To what end?
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On April 25 2022 23:26 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 21:14 Vivax wrote:
The EU wouldn't have to crash and burn (dramatic way of putting it) but it'd certainly help for its image if it stopped encroaching on national sovereignty, or lobby for common bond issuing in its usual one-size-fits-all approach.
Almost forgot, also the plans for its own military task force.
At least all vegetables look the same now. Priorities.
I thought these guys were satisfied with having free movement and trade among members. But apparently there are more unsavoury ambitions about. Please could you quote the text of the EU law that requires all vegetables to look the same. Also, if it turns out you can’t, please could you shut the fuck up.
No problem. Reading the specific part on tomatoes is enough to know it's true.
https://info.bmlrt.gv.at/themen/landwirtschaft/betriebswirtschaftliches-vermarktung/vermarktungsnormen/Obst_und_Gemuese.html
The logic is that to have equal competition you need vegetables from all countries sold in yours to look the same as in the other countries.
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Northern Ireland23897 Posts
TIL LL yearns for the destruction of the EU. Genuinely curious why, and not in a loaded question sense
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Pwning libs tends to be restricted to North America. The issue here is biodiversity. You can't find certain products to buy because their form isn't allowed in commerce.
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tbh its not more than a meme that gets repeated time and again.
While criticism of overloaded and stupid bureaucracy is needed, this certainly isn't what I would pick.
On April 26 2022 00:40 Vivax wrote:Pwning libs tends to be restricted to North America. The issue here is biodiversity. You can't find certain products to buy because their form isn't allowed in commerce.
if the reason were biodiversity, this certainly is not what you would direct your criticism at.
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On April 26 2022 00:42 Artisreal wrote:tbh its not more than a meme that gets repeated time and again. While criticism of overloaded and stupid bureaucracy is needed, this certainly isn't what I would pick. Show nested quote +On April 26 2022 00:40 Vivax wrote:Pwning libs tends to be restricted to North America. The issue here is biodiversity. You can't find certain products to buy because their form isn't allowed in commerce. if the reason were biodiversity, this certainly is not what you would direct your criticism at.
Why not? It's a stupid law. The price to pay is that nonconform food gets tossed away and some types of vegetables sort of disappear. A farmer's market in Italy that doesn't care about these laws has a much wider variety on display than my local supermarket.
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EPT
