EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 135
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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RvB
Netherlands6255 Posts
On June 29 2015 23:41 accela wrote: What are you talking about... please get yourself together. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/05/Greek%20payments.jpg) THat graph doesn't really tell the whole story. THe payments they have to do now is to the IMF etc. The payments to the EFSF and eurozone will only start in 2023. So you're right that payments are really not that much different than later on but if they had to pay back on the EFSF and eurozone loans already they would've had to pay a lot more at the moment. Also note that 1 euro now is worth more than 1 euro in the future so while the nominal payments might stay the same the real payments are considerably lower. source | ||
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Makro
France16890 Posts
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
On June 30 2015 04:55 zlefin wrote: Not sure what you're talking about Makro, I'm not seeing much that qualifies as "bullying." could you elaborate? Are you trolling? | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
Interesting article about the whole 'bullying' situation. It's really not Northern Europe who is pressing hardest here. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5296 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5296 Posts
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Maenander
Germany4926 Posts
On June 30 2015 04:16 RvB wrote: THat graph doesn't really tell the whole story. THe payments they have to do now is to the IMF etc. The payments to the EFSF and eurozone will only start in 2023. So you're right that payments are really not that much different than later on but if they had to pay back on the EFSF and eurozone loans already they would've had to pay a lot more at the moment. Also note that 1 euro now is worth more than 1 euro in the future so while the nominal payments might stay the same the real payments are considerably lower. source Net contributions to the EU household in 2007 (before the crisis): ![[image loading]](http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/europe/09/eu_budget_spending/img/graph_net_contrib_466x485.gif) Source: BBC Puts these numbers into context. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4356 Posts
On June 30 2015 02:14 Maenander wrote: Merkel just called the referendum legitimate and said that the result will be accepted. She seems to be quite happy lol. They have to say that after the Lisbon treaty fiasco in Ireland a few years back. | ||
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InVerno
258 Posts
On June 30 2015 04:15 Nyxisto wrote: I don't see many Estonians, Lithuanians or Slovenians being angry about Angela Merkel. Compared to the pension and wealth levels in these countries Greece actually is really wealthy. It is not Angela Merkel's fault that a few dozen family in Greece have gobbled up pretty much all the wealth in the country. It would be pretty advisable to be angry about those guys instead of pointing the finger at foreign leaders who are not responsible for domestic policies. I think Greeks (people, I can't know about politicians) haven't agreed to enter Europe in order to be ruled by foreign leaders proportionally to their GDPs, but to partecipate some kind of democratical project. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6255 Posts
Greece’s citizens would see a 40 percent drop in their purchasing power should the nation replace the euro with its erstwhile currency, according to analysts. “Initially there would be a massive selloff, something in the region of 30 to 40 percent depreciation against the dollar,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “We will get fresh all-time lows” for the drachma, he said. The risk of Greece leaving -- or being forced out of -- the 19-nation euro is growing after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum on the terms demanded in return for financial aid. While Jones, together with analysts from ING Groep NV and Credit Agricole SA said that’s not their base-case scenario, they’ve started to consider where the drachma would trade if Greece did exit the European Monetary Union. A weaker currency may help the Greek economy grow by boosting exports and encouraging investment from abroad. Any potential benefits risk being negated by “structurally higher funding costs” for Greece, according to Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency research at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit in London. “One of the reasons we believe that the Greeks want to stay in the euro, and will ultimately do, is the heavy economic toll that their economy will have to pay under Grexit,” Marinov said. He estimates, based on previous financial and bank crises, that the “depreciation involved is of the magnitude of 40 percent against the dollar” after 12 months. source | ||
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Fuchsteufelswild
Australia2028 Posts
On June 30 2015 19:42 InVerno wrote: I think Greeks (people, I can't know about politicians) haven't agreed to enter Europe in order to be ruled by foreign leaders proportionally to their GDPs, but to partecipate some kind of democratical project. Exactly. The whole problem with Greece "not just obeying like all the other good little doggies" is that the Eurozone should really be managed in a responsible manner, treating each country's economy for what it is, rather than enforcing the flavour-of-the-decade economic approach (austerity) on all, no matter how mad that may be. This would also mean Germany shouldn't be hoarding surpluses if it brings down other economies in the zone. EDIT: At the above: According to this, 1€ was worth 340.75 drachma. RvB, does that mean that it would be about 567.92 drachma (340.75÷0.6) according to their predictions? Also, I want to note, all these sites like Bloomberg keep harping on about how likely they think it is that with a YES vote, there would need to be new elections and probably at least Tsipras resigning. To me this just seems nonsensical. Unless there is a drastic turn in polls, and that is of course possible, the elections would result in a pretty similar distribution of seats to the way they are currently distributed. Now unless for whatever probably extremely stupid reason SYRIZA turns down government after that, or unless they didn't contest it in the first place, that would just cause more delays in getting the country into better shape (or dealing with the problems they'll have at first) and surely elections aren't free in Greece either, so it would be a pretty pointless waste of money. What's more, why would he resign, or call a snap election in the first place, when he's specifically given them a choice and said it is their intention to stay on regardless? Surely SYRIZA, or more appropriately, the entire country, has prepared to some extent for the possibility of a Eurozone exit (and thus most likely an EU exit). Bloomberg were suggesting they won't have food for long. The currency value will drop a lot later, so surely people would be getting extra in stock? (Food that lasts) Of course it's hard for me to know just how bad it is, but wouldn't the government want to at least set aside funds to cover the immediate concerns? Currently I'm a bit sceptical it'll be quite as bad as they say. | ||
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lastpuritan
United States540 Posts
Tuğrul Kürkçü, deputy of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) of the western province of Izmir, said Monday in a press conference held in Ankara that Turkey should either undertake or provide a zero interest loan for Greece's 1.6 billion euro debt to the IMF due on June 30. "Turkey can undertake 1.6 billion euro debt that Greece needs to pay. It is the biggest help that Turkey can do for its neighbor when times are tough. In exchange, it will earn the friendship of Greek people; turn the Aegean Sea into a sea of peace," Kürkçü said in a press conference held in Turkey's Parliament. "Turkey's humanitarian help in 2013 was $1.9 billion. Turkey's resources are sufficient enough to make this aid to Greece. This support can also be offered to Greece as zero interest loan," he further stated. Kürkçü stated that Germany, the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) pressures the Syriza government to protect the interests of money, not Greece itself. Kürkçü added that this approach is against the principles of the European Union. http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2015/06/29/turkey-can-undertake-greeces-16-billion-euro-debt-provide-zero-interest-loan-turkish-opposition-deputy then this Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has spoken with his Greek counterpart, Nikos Kotzias, upon the latter’s request, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said late June 29. The two ministers exchanged views on Greece’s economic crisis and bilateral cooperation between the two Aegean neighbors, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, which noted that Kotzias’ recent tour of the Balkans was also discussed. A separate statement by the Greek Foreign Ministry underlined that the conversation took place “in a very warm atmosphere.” “Mr. Çavuşoğlu assured Mr. Kotzias of the solidarity of the Turkish people and the political and state leadership of Turkey with the Greek government’s efforts to reach a mutually beneficial agreement with its partners in the eurozone,” the Greek Foreign Ministry said. then Turkish Finance Minister Nihat Zeybekci says they may help Greece if Greece wants it, it would be the most accurate solution. http://www.dailysabah.com/money/2015/06/30/turkeys-leaders-to-evaluate-aid-proposals-to-greece edit: ADDED SOURCE | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2652 Posts
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Fuchsteufelswild
Australia2028 Posts
Well, that could help..so the idea is that they'd use that to stay in the Euro and pay the IMF with that..? I hope Turkey is willing to help regardless of whether Greece is in or out of the EU. lastpuritan, could you link the source for that, please? | ||
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mdb
Bulgaria4059 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
This Europe is ruled by imbecile, they don't understand what all that is really about. | ||
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