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On June 30 2015 19:42 InVerno wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2015 04:15 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't see many Estonians, Lithuanians or Slovenians being angry about Angela Merkel. Compared to the pension and wealth levels in these countries Greece actually is really wealthy. It is not Angela Merkel's fault that a few dozen family in Greece have gobbled up pretty much all the wealth in the country. It would be pretty advisable to be angry about those guys instead of pointing the finger at foreign leaders who are not responsible for domestic policies. I think Greeks (people, I can't know about politicians) haven't agreed to enter Europe in order to be ruled by foreign leaders proportionally to their GDPs, but to partecipate some kind of democratical project.
What is this rubbish? Greece is ruled by Syriza. The debt was accumulated by governments before. But in what world are you living that an election is supposed to change the countries debt? You can't vote away debt. And you can't have other countries pay for it without giving them a say.
If you think debt is undemocratic then don't make any. There are rules in the Eurozone. If everyone does what he wants the Euro is dead. Greece has the choice to stay and follow the rules or leave. I know Germany and France also are breaking the rules whenever it pleases them. If this continues say goodbye to the Euro.
In my opinion the debt will be delt with differently depending on the choice Greece takes. If Greece stays and implements what is on the table it will be seen if the debt is really unsustainable or not. If it is there will be a debt cut. There won't be a debt cut up front.
If Greece leaves they will have to do reforms on their own to have a sustainable economy. If they want credit they will have to go to the Paris Club and negotiate with the IMF and the creditors. At least I know of no private investor that would give credit to Greece right away in this case. And as far as I know there also is no country willing to give credit. Putin for example already said no.
Depending on the negotiations in the Paris Club there will be debt cut under the condition of an IMF program.
Greece is between a rock and a hard place currently. This not Syriza's fault but that of governments before that got democratically elected so all the people in Greece had a say in that and a responsibility though nobody wants to hear that.
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On June 30 2015 19:51 Fuchsteufelswild wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2015 19:42 InVerno wrote:On June 30 2015 04:15 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't see many Estonians, Lithuanians or Slovenians being angry about Angela Merkel. Compared to the pension and wealth levels in these countries Greece actually is really wealthy. It is not Angela Merkel's fault that a few dozen family in Greece have gobbled up pretty much all the wealth in the country. It would be pretty advisable to be angry about those guys instead of pointing the finger at foreign leaders who are not responsible for domestic policies. I think Greeks (people, I can't know about politicians) haven't agreed to enter Europe in order to be ruled by foreign leaders proportionally to their GDPs, but to partecipate some kind of democratical project. Exactly. The whole problem with Greece "not just obeying like all the other good little doggies" is that the Eurozone should really be managed in a responsible manner, treating each country's economy for what it is, rather than enforcing the flavour-of-the-decade economic approach (austerity) on all, no matter how mad that may be. This would also mean Germany shouldn't be hoarding surpluses if it brings down other economies in the zone. EDIT: At the above: According to this, 1€ was worth 340.75 drachma. RvB, does that mean that it would be about 567.92 drachma (340.75÷0.6) according to their predictions? Also, I want to note, all these sites like Bloomberg keep harping on about how likely they think it is that with a YES vote, there would need to be new elections and probably at least Tsipras resigning. To me this just seems nonsensical. Unless there is a drastic turn in polls, and that is of course possible, the elections would result in a pretty similar distribution of seats to the way they are currently distributed. Now unless for whatever probably extremely stupid reason SYRIZA turns down government after that, or unless they didn't contest it in the first place, that would just cause more delays in getting the country into better shape (or dealing with the problems they'll have at first) and surely elections aren't free in Greece either, so it would be a pretty pointless waste of money. What's more, why would he resign, or call a snap election in the first place, when he's specifically given them a choice and said it is their intention to stay on regardless? Surely SYRIZA, or more appropriately, the entire country, has prepared to some extent for the possibility of a Eurozone exit (and thus most likely an EU exit). Bloomberg were suggesting they won't have food for long. The currency value will drop a lot later, so surely people would be getting extra in stock? (Food that lasts) Of course it's hard for me to know just how bad it is, but wouldn't the government want to at least set aside funds to cover the immediate concerns? Currently I'm a bit sceptical it'll be quite as bad as they say.
Assuming €1 would be 1 drachma and the value drops 40%. The new exchange rate would be €1 : 1.40 drachma. So 340.75 would be 477.05.
The reason bloomberg and all keep harping on it is because Tsipras and Syriza support a no vote.
It would be strange to say the least if Syriza loses the vote on such a crucial issue but would not resign. You're right though that an election could very well lead to the same outcome.
People are already stocking on food and medicine. The problem is that they can only pin €60 a day though so I guess they can't really stock as much as they want to.
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No, that would be a 40% increase of the value of a Euro compared to a Drachme. If the Drachme loses 40% of its value compared to the Euro, that means a Drachme is worth 60% of what it was before, or a Euro is is worth 1/0.6 = 5/3=~166% of what it was used to be.
Now, i do not know which prediction those people actually made, but these terms are very clear.
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On June 30 2015 20:42 Banaora wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2015 19:42 InVerno wrote:On June 30 2015 04:15 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't see many Estonians, Lithuanians or Slovenians being angry about Angela Merkel. Compared to the pension and wealth levels in these countries Greece actually is really wealthy. It is not Angela Merkel's fault that a few dozen family in Greece have gobbled up pretty much all the wealth in the country. It would be pretty advisable to be angry about those guys instead of pointing the finger at foreign leaders who are not responsible for domestic policies. I think Greeks (people, I can't know about politicians) haven't agreed to enter Europe in order to be ruled by foreign leaders proportionally to their GDPs, but to partecipate some kind of democratical project. What is this rubbish? Greece is ruled by Syriza. The debt was accumulated by governments before. But in what world are you living that an election is supposed to change the countries debt? You can't vote away debt. And you can't have other countries pay for it without giving them a say. If you think debt is undemocratic then don't make any. There are rules in the Eurozone. If everyone does what he wants the Euro is dead. Greece has the choice to stay and follow the rules or leave. I know Germany and France also are breaking the rules whenever it pleases them. If this continues say goodbye to the Euro. In my opinion the debt will be delt with differently depending on the choice Greece takes. If Greece stays and implements what is on the table it will be seen if the debt is really unsustainable or not. If it is there will be a debt cut. There won't be a debt cut up front. If Greece leaves they will have to do reforms on their own to have a sustainable economy. If they want credit they will have to go to the Paris Club and negotiate with the IMF and the creditors. At least I know of no private investor that would give credit to Greece right away in this case. And as far as I know there also is no country willing to give credit. Putin for example already said no. Depending on the negotiations in the Paris Club there will be debt cut under the condition of an IMF program. Greece is between a rock and a hard place currently. This not Syriza's fault but that of governments before that got democratically elected so all the people in Greece had a say in that and a responsibility though nobody wants to hear that.
German exposure to Greece it's largely resolved, at least isn't so deep to force Greeks to watch Merkel face in their TVs twice more than any BCE\FMI representatives , but her unformal power is so strong that she doesn't even care to hide for a moment, just for formality purposes. I'm purely talking about the sensation of Greeks (and other "PIGS") towards Merkel, about they "being irritated" because it was pointed out as an "irrational" behavior.
I don't find irrational being mad at a leader of an another country telling you what to do, debt are paid with money not with sovereignty, and Greeks agreed to loose sovereignty towards EU, not towards Germany. Creditors telling debitors how to do the money they lent? If you think not having the money back is bad, don't make risky investments (to quote you). Germany made an investment on Greek debt, if you ask me, this is merely speculation and should'nt even be allowed because what happen next if the investment fails is what you see, but since it looks it is allowed (and someone deeply wanted it like this instead of any other shared solution, guess who), investments have a risk part, deal with that. I'm sorry but I'm not the one who wanted countries to act like private companies, now it's like this, with benefits, risks, and losses.
Edit. Also, I should say, ranting about how badly "PIGS" spent the money you gave them isn't just anti-democratic, is also very stupid. You can find by yourself plenty of data about how before the "austerity cure" a lot of Greek parameters were fine, as an example, the GDP\Publing spending ratio it was lesser than your homeland.
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Yes. But that is not in the interest of the greeks apparently. Because they want people to keep lending them money. And it is really, really hard to convince them of that if you have a history of not paying back your debt. And if people are suspicious that you might not be able to pay back the money that you already owe them, then you need to make concessions to convince them to give you more money.
This is not only about greece being able to repay their debt. It is about greece convincing people to keep on lending them money. If they don't care about that, you can default and simply state that you are not going to pay back the money. That might make the people who lent you money angry, though, and they might think that you are no longer trustworthy and thus not want to deal with you anymore, or kick you out of the club.
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The persons who are in charge of European institutions are disgustin,liars and blackmailers.The Greek goverment must declare the debt illigal and fully erase it, also should leave euro and the only nagotiations that are willing to make is for compensations for the damage in the economy the last 5 years.
The debt can be declared illigal according to UN regulations.
-Its product of blackmail.
-Its against the Human Rights of Greek people.
-Its against the sovereignty of Greece.
-Its against the principle of mutuallity.(ex dont do to other Countries things you wouldnt do to yours).
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On June 30 2015 20:43 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2015 19:51 Fuchsteufelswild wrote:On June 30 2015 19:42 InVerno wrote:On June 30 2015 04:15 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't see many Estonians, Lithuanians or Slovenians being angry about Angela Merkel. Compared to the pension and wealth levels in these countries Greece actually is really wealthy. It is not Angela Merkel's fault that a few dozen family in Greece have gobbled up pretty much all the wealth in the country. It would be pretty advisable to be angry about those guys instead of pointing the finger at foreign leaders who are not responsible for domestic policies. I think Greeks (people, I can't know about politicians) haven't agreed to enter Europe in order to be ruled by foreign leaders proportionally to their GDPs, but to partecipate some kind of democratical project. Exactly. The whole problem with Greece "not just obeying like all the other good little doggies" is that the Eurozone should really be managed in a responsible manner, treating each country's economy for what it is, rather than enforcing the flavour-of-the-decade economic approach (austerity) on all, no matter how mad that may be. This would also mean Germany shouldn't be hoarding surpluses if it brings down other economies in the zone. EDIT: At the above: According to this, 1€ was worth 340.75 drachma. RvB, does that mean that it would be about 567.92 drachma (340.75÷0.6) according to their predictions? Also, I want to note, all these sites like Bloomberg keep harping on about how likely they think it is that with a YES vote, there would need to be new elections and probably at least Tsipras resigning. To me this just seems nonsensical. Unless there is a drastic turn in polls, and that is of course possible, the elections would result in a pretty similar distribution of seats to the way they are currently distributed. Now unless for whatever probably extremely stupid reason SYRIZA turns down government after that, or unless they didn't contest it in the first place, that would just cause more delays in getting the country into better shape (or dealing with the problems they'll have at first) and surely elections aren't free in Greece either, so it would be a pretty pointless waste of money. What's more, why would he resign, or call a snap election in the first place, when he's specifically given them a choice and said it is their intention to stay on regardless? Surely SYRIZA, or more appropriately, the entire country, has prepared to some extent for the possibility of a Eurozone exit (and thus most likely an EU exit). Bloomberg were suggesting they won't have food for long. The currency value will drop a lot later, so surely people would be getting extra in stock? (Food that lasts) Of course it's hard for me to know just how bad it is, but wouldn't the government want to at least set aside funds to cover the immediate concerns? Currently I'm a bit sceptical it'll be quite as bad as they say. Assuming €1 would be 1 drachma and the value drops 40%. The new exchange rate would be €1 : 1.40 drachma. So 340.75 would be 477.05. The reason bloomberg and all keep harping on it is because Tsipras and Syriza support a no vote. It would be strange to say the least if Syriza loses the vote on such a crucial issue but would not resign. You're right though that an election could very well lead to the same outcome. People are already stocking on food and medicine. The problem is that they can only pin €60 a day though so I guess they can't really stock as much as they want to.
Incorrect mathematics, see Simberto's response for why. Previously, it was 340.75 drachmas to 1 € according to the link I provided, but I suppose it would simplify it if they just made the new drachma a much "stronger" (probably the wrong term) currency, basing it on a 1:1 conversion from Euros to start with, as you say.
I disagree about it being "strange at least" not to resign after the referendum goes the opposite way.
They're not staking their reputation on it, saying, "We believe we should not agree to the terms! We will only govern if you reject these terms!"
They disapprove of the terms but want to help Greece, they certainly wouldn't think ND, PASOK, Golden Dawn or the KKE (Marxist–Leninists) would do a better job, they know that even if they're the most popular party by a fair way, they're far from a majority of the votes, so while they aim to serve the people their own methods, they'll go along with plans they don't want if it's desired by the majority of the people they represent (including those that didn't vote for them).
It would just be so immature for a party to say "Well we want to run the country one way, will make plenty of concessions, but if you push us too hard against our desires, we'll quit entirely, even though many of you might feel that we're far less likely to fuck you all over by doing nothing about the corruption, taxes etc."
It may be that Greeks might prefer to go through further austerity with this party in charge of at least trying to look after their interests than the same but with ND again.
Of course, it may be that Greeks would end up voting for yet another party and there'd be sudden swell of support for KKE, GD or To Potami. I think these are less likely possibilities though.
Supposing that's right, there's little point in SYRIZA rage-quitting because it doesn't go the way they'd prefer, because that's basically just handing the country back to ND (probably).
On June 30 2015 21:21 Simberto wrote:
No, that would be a 40% increase of the value of a Euro compared to a Drachme. If the Drachme loses 40% of its value compared to the Euro, that means a Drachme is worth 60% of what it was before, or a Euro is is worth 1/0.6 = 5/3=~166% of what it was used to be.
Yeah, you're right, I was right. :Þ
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On June 30 2015 21:55 phantomlancer23 wrote:
The persons who are in charge of European institutions are disgustin,liars and blackmailers.The Greek goverment must declare the debt illigal and fully erase it, also should leave euro and the only nagotiations that are willing to make is for compensations for the damage in the economy the last 5 years.
The debt can be declared illigal according to UN regulations.
-Its product of blackmail.
-Its against the Human Rights of Greek people.
-Its against the sovereignty of Greece.
-Its against the principle of mutuallity.(ex dont do to other Countries things you wouldnt do to yours).
oh lord.
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On June 30 2015 21:55 phantomlancer23 wrote:
The persons who are in charge of European institutions are disgustin,liars and blackmailers.The Greek goverment must declare the debt illigal and fully erase it, also should leave euro and the only nagotiations that are willing to make is for compensations for the damage in the economy the last 5 years.
The debt can be declared illigal according to UN regulations.
-Its product of blackmail.
-Its against the Human Rights of Greek people.
-Its against the sovereignty of Greece.
-Its against the principle of mutuallity.(ex dont do to other Countries things you wouldnt do to yours).
That is within the sovereign right of the greek people. Have fun finding people who will lend you money, invest in your country, are willing to make any bilateral deals or trade with your afterwards.
If a majority of the greeks, that is absolutely within their right to decide. No one will invade greece over that debt.
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I dont need lending if i have no debt.Greece lives without any lending since August of 2014 when was the last payment from IMF.In the beginning will be a bit difficult but there will be hope.
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On June 30 2015 21:25 InVerno wrote:
Also, I should say, ranting about how badly "PIGS" spent the money you gave them isn't just anti-democratic, is also very stupid. You can find by yourself plenty of data about how before the "austerity cure" a lot of Greek parameters were fine, as an example, the GDP\Publing spending ratio it was lesser than your homeland.
It's true, the public spending wasn't excessive compared to other countries. But the public revenue wasn't high enough. The public sector can't be as large as that of other countries if the tax income is lower (all compared to GDP).
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On June 30 2015 22:21 phantomlancer23 wrote:
I dont need lending if i have no debt.Greece lives without any lending since August of 2014 when was the last payment from IMF.In the beginning will be a bit difficult but there will be hope.
Yeah no, i don't think i am willing to debate a complex political issue with someone with such an incredibly naive worldview.
You have no idea what you are talking about, yet you are incredibly certain that you are correct.
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On June 30 2015 22:26 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2015 22:21 phantomlancer23 wrote:
I dont need lending if i have no debt.Greece lives without any lending since August of 2014 when was the last payment from IMF.In the beginning will be a bit difficult but there will be hope. Yeah no, i don't think i am willing to debate a complex political issue with someone with such an incredibly naive worldview. You have no idea what you are talking about, yet you are incredibly certain that you are correct.
Yea if you have no arguments its difficult to admit that with blackmails and an neverending unsustainable debt germany wants to steal every asset of Greek people.
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I have an argument. I made it before. If you default, others stop trusting you. You greatly underestimate the effects of that. The "Blackmail" you are speaking off is just mentioning those effects. At no point is anyone stopping you from defaulting with all resulting consequences, it is just that apparently noone, including greece, wants that. Because most people judge the negative consequences worse than those of trying to find a way to deal with the debt.
I am not certain of that. I think that a default and resulting exit from the euro might be the best solution for greece. It is not a good solution, though. It will be incredibly painful. Which you seem to not realize.
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Your definition of blackmail must be off.
A deal was made between the IMF/ECB and Greece for loans in exchange for reforming measures.
The new Greek government wants to change that deal and IMF/ECB is saying no to the proposed terms.
And because the government has stopped implementing the agreed upon reforms the IMF/ECB has stopped the incoming loans.
At what point is there a blackmail going on in that exchange?
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On June 30 2015 22:30 phantomlancer23 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2015 22:26 Simberto wrote:On June 30 2015 22:21 phantomlancer23 wrote:
I dont need lending if i have no debt.Greece lives without any lending since August of 2014 when was the last payment from IMF.In the beginning will be a bit difficult but there will be hope. Yeah no, i don't think i am willing to debate a complex political issue with someone with such an incredibly naive worldview. You have no idea what you are talking about, yet you are incredibly certain that you are correct. Yea if you have no arguments its difficult to admit that with blackmails and an neverending unsustainable debt germany wants to steal every asset of Greek people.
Merkel apparently offered debt relief (of some sort, wasn't specified more) among other things that the rest of her party as well as other european countries aren't willing to offer before the referendum was called for. in german:
[...]Für den Fall, dass Tsipras die Verlängerung des aktuellen zweiten Hilfspakets zu den veränderten Konditionen akzeptiert hätte, bot Merkel ihm dem Vernehmen nach in einem letzten Gespräch am Freitag vergangener Woche unter anderem Folgendes an: - ein drittes Hilfsprogramm,
- Schuldenerleichterungen, also eine teilweise Umschuldung,
- Investitionen in Höhe von rund 35 Milliarden Euro.
Vor allem die ersten beiden Punkte sind heikel, weil sie deutlich über die bisherige Position der Euroländer hinausgehen. Und weil Merkel genau wusste, dass sie damit im Falle einer Einigung mit Tsipras ein großes Problem mit ihrer Fraktion gehabt hätte. [...]
source
From Spiegel, in german but they are usually very anti-Merkel and pro-Greece in this matter. If you read through their articles it's all stuff like "merkels failed greece-strategy", "merkel will have to be responsible for this mess", and very much sympathetic articles towards greece and the greek population.
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Lending money to pay an unsustainble debt must stop.Germans will stop this after they auction everything in Greece it seems there are still a lot of stuff.....anyway if you cant understand that all the World is talking about the blackmailing its not my fault as i said its difficult to admit that you are usury and blackmailer for anyone.
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On June 30 2015 22:56 phantomlancer23 wrote:
Lending money to pay an unsustainble debt must stop.Germans will stop this after they auction everything in Greece it seems there are still a lot of stuff.....anyway if you cant understand that all the World is talking about the blackmailing its not my fault as i said its difficult to admit that you are usury and blackmailer for anyone.
what part of "debt relief was offered" did you not read? As well as paying back the interest greece paid for their ECB loans but granted, I didn't quote nor translate that part.
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On June 30 2015 22:56 phantomlancer23 wrote:
Lending money to pay an unsustainble debt must stop.Germans will stop this after they auction everything in Greece it seems there are still a lot of stuff.....anyway if you cant understand that all the World is talking about the blackmailing its not my fault as i said its difficult to admit that you are usury and blackmailer for anyone.
Again where is the blackmailing? Give a specific answer please.
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Aaaand we are at "Evil germans 4th reich nazis". That was quick. Also note how i am not the german government. I didn't even vote for Merkel.
The problem is that apparently, greece would like to continue to get money lend to them and keep people investing in their country. As you seem to be aware, greece is a sovereign nation, and could just say "Fuck you we ain't gonna pay you back, ever". And noone could really force them to. There is no world police or world court that you could sue them at, basically the only way to "force" them to pay would be invading by military force, and that is not something anyone would do. However, they are still not willing to do this. If you figure out why that is the case, you are closer to understanding what is going on, and a large step away from sounding like a teenager who has just found his first political ideology and is so very convinced that he has all the answers to all the problems.
Pointing fingers at others and shouting that they are evil will not solve problems, especially if you want something from them. Which still appears to be the case.
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EPT
