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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1320

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
February 24 2022 17:49 GMT
#26381
Be safe all of you out in Ukraine. I don't know how I can support so far away, but I'll damn well try.
Life?
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
February 24 2022 17:56 GMT
#26382
On February 25 2022 02:48 Dan HH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2022 02:21 Zambrah wrote:
On February 25 2022 02:05 Dan HH wrote:
On February 25 2022 00:32 Zambrah wrote:
Why would a company spend all that money to relocate though? They'd lose money over doing so, they're amoral beings, unless the government compels companies to leave the Chinese market (which they will never do because the companies compel the government) then companies won't leave a market that generates them lots of money.

We won't even see an attempt to shift away over time because as has been shown, companies dont give a fuck about a long term, they care about their next fiscal quarter and what c-suite jerkoff is going to damage their yearly bonus by almost definitely harming the company's profits for the year?

China’s economy has been evolving significantly since the 90s. Much of its goods are made for internal consumers rather than the export market. The cheap labour is elsewhere in SE Asia now with China acting as the external investor and developed market.


Lot of stuff I saw when I was living in China was made in Malaysia, didn't actually see too much that was marked as made in China while I was there

They have no choice, you're ignoring the effect of all those years of record economic growth. Kwark is correct, using China as the world's manufacturer from 1990s to 2010s skyrocketed their development which in turn skyrocketed their median wages and more importantly, their median age. They went from a median age of low 20s to 40, that means a shrinking workforce with significantly higher demands that has to soon support an unprecedented number of pensioners. The days of them being the cheap well-trained surplus labor of the global economy that serves as a deflationary force are on its last legs, what this will mean for the rest of us is pretty much the greatest debate among economists right now.


China is not exclusively a company about manufacturing, they're a colossal market for all sorts of things, you can't convince companies to just abandon being able to hock their shit to China because China has lots of people and lots of money and a lot of very consumerist culture that makes them a super lucrative market.

They will absolutely not tone down economic involvement with China so long as China is such a large and profitable market, theres no point to hoping for or expecting it, especially for something so paltry as morality, morality doesn't make companies money.

I read your comment as being in agreement with StealthBlue's cheap expendable labor take. If you meant more general ties with their market, absolutely. If anything, China being the fastest growing import market of western goods and services gives them more leverage. We already saw that with Lithuania earlier this year, they ended up paying half a billion for writing Taiwan on a building.


Yeah, I don't think China is the mecca of cheap exploitable labor in the same way it was, at the moment its biggest value is in it's colossal consumer base and super consumerist culture.

Just absolutely no way sanctions get levied on China, they could invade Virginia and march on DC and I still think you'd have companies stick with China, lol. Capitalism knows no morality, only eternal growth and profit by whatever mechanisms possible.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
Oukka
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
Finland1683 Posts
February 24 2022 17:56 GMT
#26383
Apparently a Russian platoon surrendered without fighting, not wanting to kill Ukrainians. Again probably better to wait for more info and other sources, too, but I find any news of Russian opposition to the war quite encouraging. ~30 odd guys of the 150 000+ deployed isn't a lot, but unlikely they're the only ones who think like this.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1496884570716835840?t=4kZkNFUclpUz2VmNAMzhCQ&s=19
I play children's card games and watch a lot of dota, CS and HS
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18855 Posts
February 24 2022 17:57 GMT
#26384
On February 25 2022 02:56 Oukka wrote:
Apparently a Russian platoon surrendered without fighting, not wanting to kill Ukrainians. Again probably better to wait for more info and other sources, too, but I find any news of Russian opposition to the war quite encouraging. ~30 odd guys of the 150 000+ deployed isn't a lot, but unlikely they're the only ones who think like this.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1496884570716835840?t=4kZkNFUclpUz2VmNAMzhCQ&s=19

Agreed, thanks for sharing this.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-24 18:00:25
February 24 2022 17:58 GMT
#26385
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians.

Gotta love fascistic strongman regimes.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1066 Posts
February 24 2022 18:00 GMT
#26386
On February 25 2022 02:14 Dav1oN wrote:
I'm thinking to apply for refugee status for my kid/wife so they could be safe, but not sure how and where to look for, worried for them


Hey man, stay safe. You and your family can enter and stay in any EU country for 3 months, no questions asked, afaik. You could take it from there, if safety is you main concern.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
February 24 2022 18:02 GMT
#26387
On February 25 2022 02:43 Dav1oN wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2022 02:20 Silvanel wrote:
@Dav1oN
Poland is also an option. I heard the roads to border crossings are packed with people fleeing, though.


Yea, all roads to the western border are packed, plus the problem is that I don't have a car for use atm. Air is closed, the sea is blocked, and to the western border it takes like a day by train (will check if the railway available)

Show nested quote +
On February 25 2022 02:16 Jealous wrote:
On February 25 2022 02:14 Dav1oN wrote:
I'm thinking to apply for refugee status for my kid/wife so they could be safe, but not sure how and where to look for, worried for them

I believe it was Romania who said they are ready to take 500,000 refugees. Best of luck to you and your family.


Thank you for your support!

Ireland are in the process of removing visa requirements for Ukrainians.

Mr Martin said that the Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Minister for Justice were working together to start the process of waiving the visas requirements for all Ukrainian citizens entering Ireland.

Source

I cannot see this happening in Germany. At the moment my best bet is that you'll be welcomed as a refugee but not as a potential citizen
Apparently our federal states are already in discussions of how to acommodate to the situation.
passive quaranstream fan
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria837 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-24 18:12:10
February 24 2022 18:06 GMT
#26388
On February 25 2022 02:58 Zambrah wrote:
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians.

Gotta love fascistic strongman regimes.


Maybe not as intended by Trump, but he could be right that Russian army could be a great peacekeeper force if they target one individual within their own country... The whole world would be relieved. The problem is Putin oppressed opposition far too much for anyone else to turn up...
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
February 24 2022 18:09 GMT
#26389
On February 25 2022 02:58 Zambrah wrote:
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians.

From what I've seen this intervention isn't popular in Russia, but not in a "protest for government overthrow" way. More so "stay home and hope for the best" with the moderate protest action you've seen so far from those that are willing to protest.

The 2014 intervention was much more visibly popular; this isn't.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-24 18:17:33
February 24 2022 18:15 GMT
#26390
Apparently the G7 meeting has ended.



Also Boris Johnson has joined the Czechs in pushing Russia out of SWIFT.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6336 Posts
February 24 2022 18:19 GMT
#26391
On February 25 2022 02:18 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2022 02:11 Erasme wrote:
On February 25 2022 01:52 zeo wrote:
On February 25 2022 01:29 Broetchenholer wrote:
No. Even if Ukraine is an autocratic dystopia as bad as Russia right now, Russia is still attacking that country. And you seem okay with that. Your argument was that "turning Ukraine into a poking stick towards Russia" was a bad idea and this is the reason Vlad is invading now. So, apparently being an independent nation next to Russia is a valid Casus Belli now.

And Ukraine is not our guy. They are a guy. That is being invaded by your guy.

I gave you the benefit of the doubt the first time, maybe you were unintentionally misunderstanding and misrepresenting my words. But this is just low effort.

Up until yesterday Russia was one one the few big countries that actually followed international law. Not because they are the good guys, but because they didnt have the free 'do what you want' cards NATO countries got.

Now its all gone to shit. The only guy I have in all of this is my own country. Which I hope doesnt get dragged into the pot of shit the whole lot of you stirred up

Can you explain to me how Russia was the only one following international law while they invaded crimea and kept on sending armed forces to destabilize the region ?

"Up until yesterday" helps their claim but is still not really true because Russia was in Syria, Afghanistan, and other such places. I think the point was that much of the* UN was in Iraq, USA in Afghanistan until 2021, they have boats circling in Korean waters and by Taiwan, etc. This is whataboutism but it's still true.

Russia was in Syria because they were called in the legitimate government in Damascus. Afghanistan was a Soviet Union intervention/war, of course the Soviet Union just like the US pissed all over international law because they could.
"No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot." - Mark Twain
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32746 Posts
February 24 2022 18:24 GMT
#26392
UK PM Johnson is pressing for Russia to be banned from SWIFT, along with a package of other sanctions, but the EU is resisting that measure. There's also reporting that the EU is worried about skyrocketing natural gas prices which is adding to the reluctance. With Russia's oversized influence on energy markets, I wonder how much people in the West can tolerate paying more for gas at the pump or for heating their homes.

Biden will be speaking shortly with what I presume will be the latest on actions the West will take against Russia. NBC News says Biden is being presented with massive cyberattack options on Russia.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9179 Posts
February 24 2022 18:29 GMT
#26393
On February 25 2022 02:56 Oukka wrote:
Apparently a Russian platoon surrendered without fighting, not wanting to kill Ukrainians. Again probably better to wait for more info and other sources, too, but I find any news of Russian opposition to the war quite encouraging. ~30 odd guys of the 150 000+ deployed isn't a lot, but unlikely they're the only ones who think like this.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1496884570716835840?t=4kZkNFUclpUz2VmNAMzhCQ&s=19

Tangentially related, I was thinking how much stranger the concept of a major war in Europe is now. Not because it's been a long time, but because of how the internet and cheap travel changed everything. 50 years ago most people only interacted with their co-nationals. But now we all vacation together, we play games together, we make cheap jokes and have silly arguments with eachother on daily basis.

I definitely don't want to hurt someone that I've never interacted with before either, but somehow to concept of hurting someone that may have made you laugh once or healed your ass in a dungeon and having no way to tell is extra absurd to me.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
February 24 2022 18:30 GMT
#26394
On February 25 2022 03:24 PhoenixVoid wrote:
UK PM Johnson is pressing for Russia to be banned from SWIFT, along with a package of other sanctions, but the EU is resisting that measure. There's also reporting that the EU is worried about skyrocketing natural gas prices which is adding to the reluctance. With Russia's oversized influence on energy markets, I wonder how much people in the West can tolerate paying more for gas at the pump or for heating their homes.

Biden will be speaking shortly with what I presume will be the latest on actions the West will take against Russia. NBC News says Biden is being presented with massive cyberattack options on Russia.

Whet are the odds of Biden ordering cyber attacks? I would think Putin would declare that war
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 24 2022 18:31 GMT
#26395
Biden is slated to say that if Russia orders a cyber attack against the US or it's forces, or NATO anywhere. Then that is what will happen.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22132 Posts
February 24 2022 18:34 GMT
#26396
Seeing the EU decline to cut Russia off financially I can't help but think that if Putin were to invade an actual NATO country these same leaders would refuse to honour article 5.

And to think that not so long ago we though it would the US that would be the end of NATO.

For years and years we have known we are to energy reliant on Russia and not done enough to change that. And now that the time has come to pay the price for that we cower away from accepting the consequences.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Salazarz
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Korea (South)2591 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-24 18:38:40
February 24 2022 18:35 GMT
#26397
On February 25 2022 03:09 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2022 02:58 Zambrah wrote:
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians.

From what I've seen this intervention isn't popular in Russia, but not in a "protest for government overthrow" way. More so "stay home and hope for the best" with the moderate protest action you've seen so far from those that are willing to protest.

The 2014 intervention was much more visibly popular; this isn't.


I have a friend who is about as anti-Putin as it gets in Russia, not just in words but in actual actions. He's deeply involved with their national-socialist hardliners (skinheads, neo-nazis, that sort of crowd) -- they're not very nice people at all, but they are one of the very few organized groups that genuinely want to oust Putin and aren't afraid to show it. Navalny was a big figure in those circles until he started to distance himself from them a little to try and appeal more to 'normal' people, since most regular folks wouldn't really vote for a skinhead as an alternative to Putin.

His reaction so far to the Ukraine situation is, frankly, somewhat disheartening -- it's pretty much just 'wait and see what happens' so far. Considering him and other dudes like him were taking to the streets after nearly every shitty move Putin has done at home (pension 'reforms', various changes to the constitution etc, not to mention Navalny's arrest), it's honestly surprising to see that him and others like him are basically okay with the invasion.

According to him, folks he hangs out with are half-expecting Putin to make moves on Caucasus and Transnistria if Ukraine goes 'well', too, which is pretty frightening. I really thought there would be more pushback from inside and more serious protests, but I guess not. Apparently they think that a 'successful' campaign in Ukraine will actually increase Putin's domestic support significantly, even if sanctions drive their economy into the ground. It makes no sense to me, but then again, what do I know. I genuinely believed nothing would come of the Russian buildup all the way up to the moment the missiles started flying and tanks started rolling.
Oukka
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
Finland1683 Posts
February 24 2022 18:35 GMT
#26398
All Russian government sites were reportedly already down about an hour ago. Whether it's CIA interns pressing f5 a lot or something else, who knows.
I play children's card games and watch a lot of dota, CS and HS
Starlightsun
Profile Blog Joined June 2016
United States1405 Posts
February 24 2022 18:47 GMT
#26399
On February 25 2022 03:35 Salazarz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2022 03:09 LegalLord wrote:
On February 25 2022 02:58 Zambrah wrote:
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians.

From what I've seen this intervention isn't popular in Russia, but not in a "protest for government overthrow" way. More so "stay home and hope for the best" with the moderate protest action you've seen so far from those that are willing to protest.

The 2014 intervention was much more visibly popular; this isn't.


I have a friend who is about as anti-Putin as it gets in Russia, not just in words but in actual actions. He's deeply involved with their national-socialist hardliners (skinheads, neo-nazis, that sort of crowd) -- they're not very nice people at all, but they are one of the very few organized groups that genuinely want to oust Putin and aren't afraid to show it. Navalny was a big figure in those circles until he started to distance himself from them a little to try and appeal more to 'normal' people, since most regular folks wouldn't really vote for a skinhead as an alternative to Putin.

His reaction so far to the Ukraine situation is, frankly, somewhat disheartening -- it's pretty much just 'wait and see what happens' so far. Considering him and other dudes like him were taking to the streets after nearly every shitty move Putin has done at home (pension 'reforms', various changes to the constitution etc, not to mention Navalny's arrest), it's honestly surprising to see that him and others like him are basically okay with the invasion.

According to him, folks he hangs out with are half-expecting Putin to make moves on Caucasus and Transnistria if Ukraine goes 'well', too, which is pretty frightening. I really thought there would be more pushback from inside and more serious protests, but I guess not. Apparently they think that a 'successful' campaign in Ukraine will actually increase Putin's domestic support significantly, even if sanctions drive their economy into the ground. It makes no sense to me, but then again, what do I know. I genuinely believed nothing would come of the Russian buildup all the way up to the moment the missiles started flying and tanks started rolling.


Is that domestic support from a belief that Ukraine is an aggressor, is committing atrocities etc? Or just from "winning" and taking (or retaking according to them) territory? If it's the former then they would have to spend time manufacturing more propaganda before invading more countries. Anyway, sad to hear domestic opposition reacting coolly to this.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1066 Posts
February 24 2022 18:49 GMT
#26400
Biden seems a lot more there and healthy today, good to see. Yesterday i just thought, that guy is too old for this shit. And I'd take his corpse over Trump any day.
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