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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 25 2022 03:47 Starlightsun wrote:
Is that domestic support from a belief that Ukraine is an aggressor, is committing atrocities etc? Or just from "winning" and taking (or retaking according to them) territory? If it's the former then they would have to spend time manufacturing more propaganda before invading more countries. Anyway, sad to hear domestic opposition reacting coolly to this.
There's a lot that your average Russian would be deeply concerned about with regards to Ukraine - the fascist elements, the treatment of Russian-speakers in general and the separatist regions in particular, and the way in which a new NATO-friendly government came to power in 2013-2014. But there's a pretty wide chasm between that and actually supporting a large-scale military operation as a means to try to resolve it.
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On February 25 2022 03:47 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2022 03:35 Salazarz wrote:On February 25 2022 03:09 LegalLord wrote:On February 25 2022 02:58 Zambrah wrote:
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians. From what I've seen this intervention isn't popular in Russia, but not in a "protest for government overthrow" way. More so "stay home and hope for the best" with the moderate protest action you've seen so far from those that are willing to protest. The 2014 intervention was much more visibly popular; this isn't. I have a friend who is about as anti-Putin as it gets in Russia, not just in words but in actual actions. He's deeply involved with their national-socialist hardliners (skinheads, neo-nazis, that sort of crowd) -- they're not very nice people at all, but they are one of the very few organized groups that genuinely want to oust Putin and aren't afraid to show it. Navalny was a big figure in those circles until he started to distance himself from them a little to try and appeal more to 'normal' people, since most regular folks wouldn't really vote for a skinhead as an alternative to Putin. His reaction so far to the Ukraine situation is, frankly, somewhat disheartening -- it's pretty much just 'wait and see what happens' so far. Considering him and other dudes like him were taking to the streets after nearly every shitty move Putin has done at home (pension 'reforms', various changes to the constitution etc, not to mention Navalny's arrest), it's honestly surprising to see that him and others like him are basically okay with the invasion. According to him, folks he hangs out with are half-expecting Putin to make moves on Caucasus and Transnistria if Ukraine goes 'well', too, which is pretty frightening. I really thought there would be more pushback from inside and more serious protests, but I guess not. Apparently they think that a 'successful' campaign in Ukraine will actually increase Putin's domestic support significantly, even if sanctions drive their economy into the ground. It makes no sense to me, but then again, what do I know. I genuinely believed nothing would come of the Russian buildup all the way up to the moment the missiles started flying and tanks started rolling. Is that domestic support from a belief that Ukraine is an aggressor, is committing atrocities etc? Or just from "winning" and taking (or retaking according to them) territory? If it's the former then they would have to spend time manufacturing more propaganda before invading more countries. Anyway, sad to hear domestic opposition reacting coolly to this.
I'm not sure actually, I'll ask him next time we talk. I think a lot of older folks and also people from rural areas blame NATO / the West for just about everything, so 'getting one back' at the West is totally worth celebrating no matter how bad it hurts them at home to do so.
edit: LegalLord also has a point; the tensions between Russian minorities & Ukrainians in the eastern regions were very real, as well as the push to close Russian schools etc, the open support for utterly despicable scum like the Azov brigade and so on.
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Germany hitched their carriage to Russia's horse when they decided to shut down nuclear power by the end of the year, and increase reliance on Russia gas. Supporting Ukraine tanks their own access to gas. The energy dependence on Russia is just too high for them to be able to support Ukraine materially.
Even if they delayed the shutdown of Nuclear reactors for a few years, and increased renewables deployment, they'd be reliant on gas for almost 1/4 of their energy needs. Even if they continue to ramp renewables, they can't drop the fossil fuels for another decade (+100tw of renewable capacity in the last 10 years, and it looks like a steady increase).
![[image loading]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Germany_electricity_production.svg/1920px-Germany_electricity_production.svg.png)
Oil consumption accounted for 34.3% of all energy use in 2018, and 23.7% of Germany's energy consumption came from gas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
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This is something Poland and me specifically warned against multiple times on this very forum. German (European) dependence on Russian oil/gas makes it difficult to pursue independent foreign policy.
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Whoa.
This basically means an end to Russia's manned space program. Now one has to wonder how much reserves does Russia have? What about the French territories that Russia needs like in South America.
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On February 25 2022 03:35 Salazarz wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2022 03:09 LegalLord wrote:On February 25 2022 02:58 Zambrah wrote:
A revolutionary uprising in Russia is probably the only way this invasion gets stopped and tbh I dont see support being THAT high, plus it'd probably only result in Russia massacring a bunch of their own people instead of massacring Ukrainians. From what I've seen this intervention isn't popular in Russia, but not in a "protest for government overthrow" way. More so "stay home and hope for the best" with the moderate protest action you've seen so far from those that are willing to protest. The 2014 intervention was much more visibly popular; this isn't. I have a friend who is about as anti-Putin as it gets in Russia, not just in words but in actual actions. He's deeply involved with their national-socialist hardliners (skinheads, neo-nazis, that sort of crowd) -- they're not very nice people at all, but they are one of the very few organized groups that genuinely want to oust Putin and aren't afraid to show it. Navalny was a big figure in those circles until he started to distance himself from them a little to try and appeal more to 'normal' people, since most regular folks wouldn't really vote for a skinhead as an alternative to Putin. His reaction so far to the Ukraine situation is, frankly, somewhat disheartening -- it's pretty much just 'wait and see what happens' so far. Considering him and other dudes like him were taking to the streets after nearly every shitty move Putin has done at home (pension 'reforms', various changes to the constitution etc, not to mention Navalny's arrest), it's honestly surprising to see that him and others like him are basically okay with the invasion. According to him, folks he hangs out with are half-expecting Putin to make moves on Caucasus and Transnistria if Ukraine goes 'well', too, which is pretty frightening. I really thought there would be more pushback from inside and more serious protests, but I guess not. Apparently they think that a 'successful' campaign in Ukraine will actually increase Putin's domestic support significantly, even if sanctions drive their economy into the ground. It makes no sense to me, but then again, what do I know. I genuinely believed nothing would come of the Russian buildup all the way up to the moment the missiles started flying and tanks started rolling.
Constantinople will be the ultimate goal for Putin as it was for the Tsars. The pathetic response so far might make Putin think that is even possible.
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Biden talks about large sanctions against Russia. Expected, but somewhat disappointing for those hoping for something that could affect Ukraine's chances of survival.
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On February 25 2022 03:58 Lmui wrote:Germany hitched their carriage to Russia's horse when they decided to shut down nuclear power by the end of the year, and increase reliance on Russia gas. Supporting Ukraine tanks their own access to gas. The energy dependence on Russia is just too high for them to be able to support Ukraine materially. Even if they delayed the shutdown of Nuclear reactors for a few years, and increased renewables deployment, they'd be reliant on gas for almost 1/4 of their energy needs. Even if they continue to ramp renewables, they can't drop the fossil fuels for another decade (+100tw of renewable capacity in the last 10 years, and it looks like a steady increase). + Show Spoiler [image] +Show nested quote +Oil consumption accounted for 34.3% of all energy use in 2018, and 23.7% of Germany's energy consumption came from gas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
you're looking at electricity.
what do you think we heat our homes with?
like 50% gas boilers or district heating. And that heat comes from combined heat and power gas plants oftentimes.
or what the industry uses for heat-reliant processes or heating. it's about time the arrogance of calling ourselves the energy transition leaders while actually doing very little bites us in the ass.
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On February 25 2022 04:03 Silvanel wrote:
This is something Poland and me specifically warned against multiple times on this very forum. German (European) dependence on Russian oil/gas makes it difficult to pursue independent foreign policy.
Trump told Germany, a few years back, that making Putin rich by buying his gas/oil was a danger to European security; the media painted it as abandoning NATO. Here is the clip:
https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1496917092351692810?s=21
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On February 25 2022 04:22 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2022 04:03 Silvanel wrote:
This is something Poland and me specifically warned against multiple times on this very forum. German (European) dependence on Russian oil/gas makes it difficult to pursue independent foreign policy. Trump told Germany, a few years back, that making Putin rich by buying his gas/oil was a danger to European security; the media painted it as abandoning NATO. Here is the clip: https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1496917092351692810?s=21
so you say if you throw enough shit at the wall, something will stick?
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@GoTuNk!
If I were to choose one, best thing Trump did during his time in office, it would be, without the doubt, sanctioning companies working on NordStream2.
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Any American president would do that though
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So has anyone interviewed Merkel about all this? Habeck(sp?) has stated Germany gets 55% of it's gas from Russia, 50% Coal, and 35% of it's Oil. How the hell would Germany need to import Coal...?
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On February 25 2022 03:58 Lmui wrote:Germany hitched their carriage to Russia's horse when they decided to shut down nuclear power by the end of the year, and increase reliance on Russia gas. Supporting Ukraine tanks their own access to gas. The energy dependence on Russia is just too high for them to be able to support Ukraine materially. Even if they delayed the shutdown of Nuclear reactors for a few years, and increased renewables deployment, they'd be reliant on gas for almost 1/4 of their energy needs. Even if they continue to ramp renewables, they can't drop the fossil fuels for another decade (+100tw of renewable capacity in the last 10 years, and it looks like a steady increase). + Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +Oil consumption accounted for 34.3% of all energy use in 2018, and 23.7% of Germany's energy consumption came from gas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
On February 25 2022 04:03 Silvanel wrote:
This is something Poland and me specifically warned against multiple times on this very forum. German (European) dependence on Russian oil/gas makes it difficult to pursue independent foreign policy.
When I read such comments about nuclear power, I start wondering what you believe nuclear plants run on... good intentions and happy thoughts?
Fact of the matter is, the EU basically doesn't mine any Uranium. All of it has to be imported. Now, guess where it is imported from...
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/LgugtQt.png)
20% come Russia, another 20+% come from countries in Russia's sphere of influence. ~0% come from within the EU. Nuclear power does not mean energy independence for Europe by any stretch of the imagination.
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On February 25 2022 04:31 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So has anyone interviewed Merkel about all this? Habeck(sp?) has stated Germany gets 55% of it's gas from Russia, 50% Coal, and 35% of it's Oil. How the hell would Germany need to import Coal...? Because its cheaper to import Coal from Russia, who mine it cheap under bad worker conditions then to dig it up locally under EU environmental and worker conditions.
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It's similar in Poland. We have a lot of mines ourselves, but it's just cheaper to import it from Russia/Ukraine.
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Russia claiming de-nazification as a reason for the invasion is super weird because they support so many right wing nuts in Europe and the USA.
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EPT
