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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1249

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
May 26 2019 17:51 GMT
#24961
Austrian exit polls see the conservatives as the big winner with +7.5%. People really love themselves some Copyright reforms I guess. Also the nationalists suffered a crushing defeat after their big scandal that blew up the coalition, losing 2.2% in comparison to the last EU elections:

Exit Polls:
Cons: 34.5
Soc-Dems: 23.5
Nationalists: 17.5
Greens: 13.5
Neoliberals: 8.0
More Greens: 2.0
Communists: 1.0
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5298 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 18:09:25
May 26 2019 18:07 GMT
#24962
PSD: 25,8% - right
PNL: 25,8% - left
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS: 23,9% - left(center), technocrats, constitutionals; the alliance was created last year.
Pro România: 5,7% - left(center), ex-PSD
UDMR: 5,4% - magyar minority
PMP: 5,2% - populist, ex-PNL(PDL)

- easy ~60% proEU
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9269 Posts
May 26 2019 18:14 GMT
#24963
You mean the rest is anti EU or would be labelled as anti EU by the liberals?
You're now breathing manually
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 26 2019 18:15 GMT
#24964
As expected the FN won, but macronists are not that behind. Greens overperformed, the mainstream right collapsed, the FI (left) suffered a setback, the PS did better than polls announced and will have elected representatives in the end.

Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
May 26 2019 18:19 GMT
#24965
On May 27 2019 03:15 TheDwf wrote:
As expected the FN won, but macronists are not that behind. Greens overperformed, the mainstream right collapsed, the FI (left) suffered a setback, the PS did better than polls announced and will have elected representatives in the end.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132708380760584192

everything that weakens the EVP and possible prevents "I dont want a free internet"-Weber is a blessing in this timelime
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5298 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 18:24:44
May 26 2019 18:21 GMT
#24966
On May 27 2019 03:14 Sent. wrote:
You mean the rest is anti EU or would be labelled as anti EU by the liberals?
they are the nationalists that push the Soros narrative or the deep/parallel state one. the only reason they're not openly anti-EU is because it'll kill their political career.
people are generally still pro-EU.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 18:24:23
May 26 2019 18:23 GMT
#24967
Some interesting additional polls from Germany, with basically all of them showing a clear message: (comparison to 2015 in brackets, when available)

Interest in European elections:
Strong 69 (+21)
Not so Strong 31 (-21)

Main reason for election decision:
Climate / ecology: 48 (+28)
Social security: 43 (-5)
Peace: 35 (-7)
Immigration: 25 (+12)

Personal advantage or disadvantage from EU membership of Germany:
Advantage: 68
Disadvantage: 17
Neutral: 11

Preferred president of EU commission
Can not judge: 64
Weber: 15
Timmermans: 14
Neither: 4

Who has the best answers for the questions of the future:
CDU/CSU: 18
Greens: 17
SPD: 7
No Party: 37

Agreement with statements:
The EU-membership causes/contributes (tricky to translate) to our economic well-being: 78 (+10)
The EU interferes in to many things: 46 (-16)


Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
May 26 2019 18:24 GMT
#24968
Good to see that the AfD is stuck at 12% or whatever and also pretty happy about seeing the Greens do so well. SPD continues to die rather rapidly and needs a completely new program. If the voter movement of the youth is any indication, they need a much better ecological and liberal profile.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
May 26 2019 18:26 GMT
#24969
On May 27 2019 03:24 Nyxisto wrote:
Good to see that the AfD is stuck at 12% or whatever and also pretty happy about seeing the Greens do so well. SPD continues to die rather rapidly and needs a completely new program. If the voter movement of the youth is any indication, they need a much better ecological and liberal profile.


They figured out that the usual debate on who becomes chancellor candidate is always harming them. So they created a plan on how to avoid having to name a chancellor candidate for the next election. It is working really well! They are right on track.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23592 Posts
May 26 2019 18:37 GMT
#24970
Takes me so long just to decipher the various parties (double check the country being referenced), remember their notable quirks, and connect some personality/figure to it I have a hard time staying interested. Could someone give a ELI5 (American edition) for what happened?

So far I gather that the fear of a rightward swing among the electorate didn't manifest but I'm only like 51% sure that's what happened.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5298 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 18:42:09
May 26 2019 18:40 GMT
#24971
you'd rather look at the overall projections: https://europeelects.eu/ep2019/ https://www.election-results.eu
(individual national parties are affiliated with an European group)
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11722 Posts
May 26 2019 18:42 GMT
#24972
On May 27 2019 03:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
Takes me so long just to decipher the various parties (double check the country being referenced), remember their notable quirks, and connect some personality/figure to it I have a hard time staying interested. Could someone give a ELI5 (American edition) for what happened?

So far I gather that the fear of a rightward swing among the electorate didn't manifest but I'm only like 51% sure that's what happened.


In Germany, it didn't manifest.

There was a bit of a move from conservatives (CDU/CSU) towards hard right AfD, but the most interesting thing that happened here is that the Greens doubled in value, and the social democrats are collapsing. The total amount of rightwing didn't change relevantly.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23592 Posts
May 26 2019 18:47 GMT
#24973
On May 27 2019 03:42 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2019 03:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
Takes me so long just to decipher the various parties (double check the country being referenced), remember their notable quirks, and connect some personality/figure to it I have a hard time staying interested. Could someone give a ELI5 (American edition) for what happened?

So far I gather that the fear of a rightward swing among the electorate didn't manifest but I'm only like 51% sure that's what happened.


In Germany, it didn't manifest.

There was a bit of a move from conservatives (CDU/CSU) towards hard right AfD, but the most interesting thing that happened here is that the Greens doubled in value, and the social democrats are collapsing. The total amount of rightwing didn't change relevantly.


Okay, so I think I was mostly reading that right. If I understand the nuance at all (I probably don't), folks like Big J would say that the "center-left" and "social democrat" labels aren't exactly accurate but otherwise generally see things the same way?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11722 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 19:04:04
May 26 2019 19:03 GMT
#24974
On May 27 2019 03:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2019 03:42 Simberto wrote:
On May 27 2019 03:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
Takes me so long just to decipher the various parties (double check the country being referenced), remember their notable quirks, and connect some personality/figure to it I have a hard time staying interested. Could someone give a ELI5 (American edition) for what happened?

So far I gather that the fear of a rightward swing among the electorate didn't manifest but I'm only like 51% sure that's what happened.


In Germany, it didn't manifest.

There was a bit of a move from conservatives (CDU/CSU) towards hard right AfD, but the most interesting thing that happened here is that the Greens doubled in value, and the social democrats are collapsing. The total amount of rightwing didn't change relevantly.


Okay, so I think I was mostly reading that right. If I understand the nuance at all (I probably don't), folks like Big J would say that the "center-left" and "social democrat" labels aren't exactly accurate but otherwise generally see things the same way?


I don't know where you got that from, the only post by Big J i saw on the last three pages was a short summary of the austrian EU election, and a short post where he states that he dislikes the EU conservatives.

Slightly unrelated:
I was an election helper (Is this the correct english word for the people who work at the voting stations?) for the first time in this election, and it is an experience that i can greatly recommend. You get a much better feeling of what votes actually mean if you meet 400 people who come in to vote, and then see (and count) all these ballots. 200 Votes doesn't feel like a lot in the statistics on TV, but if you actually see just how big a pile of paper those are, you get a lot more respect for them.I think it is also important to understand how the systems work at the low level.

I have a lot of newfound respect for the basic process of balloting and counting votes, and how many safeguards there are in it, and how much effort people put into making it work. We recounted over 700 votes three times, and checked and rechecked all sorts of things because the total didn't add up to the same number as the total amount of entries for people who voted.

Also, it is amazing to see just how well organized it is and how well it works on a mechanical level. In the 5.5 hours that i was at the ballot, i don't think a single person had to wait for more than 3-5 minutes.

Seriously, i think this is something that every person in a democracy should do at least once. I will definitively do it again for the next elections.
Deleted User 26513
Profile Joined February 2007
2376 Posts
May 26 2019 19:05 GMT
#24975
As expected sub 30% turnout in Bulgaria. People don't really care.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23592 Posts
May 26 2019 19:10 GMT
#24976
On May 27 2019 04:03 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2019 03:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 27 2019 03:42 Simberto wrote:
On May 27 2019 03:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
Takes me so long just to decipher the various parties (double check the country being referenced), remember their notable quirks, and connect some personality/figure to it I have a hard time staying interested. Could someone give a ELI5 (American edition) for what happened?

So far I gather that the fear of a rightward swing among the electorate didn't manifest but I'm only like 51% sure that's what happened.


In Germany, it didn't manifest.

There was a bit of a move from conservatives (CDU/CSU) towards hard right AfD, but the most interesting thing that happened here is that the Greens doubled in value, and the social democrats are collapsing. The total amount of rightwing didn't change relevantly.


Okay, so I think I was mostly reading that right. If I understand the nuance at all (I probably don't), folks like Big J would say that the "center-left" and "social democrat" labels aren't exactly accurate but otherwise generally see things the same way?


I don't know where you got that from, the only post by Big J i saw on the last three pages was a short summary of the austrian EU election, and a short post where he states that he dislikes the EU conservatives.

Slightly unrelated:
I was an election helper (Is this the correct english word for the people who work at the voting stations?) for the first time in this election, and it is an experience that i can greatly recommend. You get a much better feeling of what votes actually mean if you meet 400 people who come in to vote, and then see (and count) all these ballots. 200 Votes doesn't feel like a lot in the statistics on TV, but if you actually see just how big a pile of paper those are, you get a lot more respect for them.I think it is also important to understand how the systems work at the low level.

I have a lot of newfound respect for the basic process of balloting and counting votes, and how many safeguards there are in it, and how much effort people put into making it work. We recounted over 700 votes three times, and checked and rechecked all sorts of things because the total didn't add up to the same number as the total amount of entries for people who voted.

Also, it is amazing to see just how well organized it is and how well it works on a mechanical level. In the 5.5 hours that i was at the ballot, i don't think a single person had to wait for more than 3-5 minutes.

Seriously, i think this is something that every person in a democracy should do at least once. I will definitively do it again for the next elections.



Just that J also seems to the left of most (I read this thread even though I don't post often) but otherwise the description was fine.

I wonder if I could sell "This takes 5 minutes in Germany" t-shirts in the hours long lines to vote in the US?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9269 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 19:13:35
May 26 2019 19:12 GMT
#24977
Results from Poland

PiS: 42,4%
KE: 39,2% (alliance of Civic Platform (liberals/conservatives depending on the weather), SLD (post commies), Greens (aparrently they exist), PSL (rural conservatives), basically everything between PiS and the far left)
Wiosna: 6,6% (far left)
Konfederacja 6,1% (far right)

Turnout: ~43%
You're now breathing manually
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12006 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-26 19:47:28
May 26 2019 19:38 GMT
#24978
On May 27 2019 04:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2019 04:03 Simberto wrote:
On May 27 2019 03:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 27 2019 03:42 Simberto wrote:
On May 27 2019 03:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
Takes me so long just to decipher the various parties (double check the country being referenced), remember their notable quirks, and connect some personality/figure to it I have a hard time staying interested. Could someone give a ELI5 (American edition) for what happened?

So far I gather that the fear of a rightward swing among the electorate didn't manifest but I'm only like 51% sure that's what happened.


In Germany, it didn't manifest.

There was a bit of a move from conservatives (CDU/CSU) towards hard right AfD, but the most interesting thing that happened here is that the Greens doubled in value, and the social democrats are collapsing. The total amount of rightwing didn't change relevantly.


Okay, so I think I was mostly reading that right. If I understand the nuance at all (I probably don't), folks like Big J would say that the "center-left" and "social democrat" labels aren't exactly accurate but otherwise generally see things the same way?


I don't know where you got that from, the only post by Big J i saw on the last three pages was a short summary of the austrian EU election, and a short post where he states that he dislikes the EU conservatives.

Slightly unrelated:
I was an election helper (Is this the correct english word for the people who work at the voting stations?) for the first time in this election, and it is an experience that i can greatly recommend. You get a much better feeling of what votes actually mean if you meet 400 people who come in to vote, and then see (and count) all these ballots. 200 Votes doesn't feel like a lot in the statistics on TV, but if you actually see just how big a pile of paper those are, you get a lot more respect for them.I think it is also important to understand how the systems work at the low level.

I have a lot of newfound respect for the basic process of balloting and counting votes, and how many safeguards there are in it, and how much effort people put into making it work. We recounted over 700 votes three times, and checked and rechecked all sorts of things because the total didn't add up to the same number as the total amount of entries for people who voted.

Also, it is amazing to see just how well organized it is and how well it works on a mechanical level. In the 5.5 hours that i was at the ballot, i don't think a single person had to wait for more than 3-5 minutes.

Seriously, i think this is something that every person in a democracy should do at least once. I will definitively do it again for the next elections.



Just that J also seems to the left of most (I read this thread even though I don't post often) but otherwise the description was fine.

I wonder if I could sell "This takes 5 minutes in Germany" t-shirts in the hours long lines to vote in the US?


It takes me 14 minutes. 5 minutes travel there (bicycle), 2 minutes finding the right place. 2 minutes voting (no queues) and then 5 min home. Preliminary results at 23, so can't say how the elections here went.

Though it is fun when they put up a scale of the blocks in the EU with Swedish representatives on it. One slightly right of the center.
[image loading]

Though estimate of the Swedish results are there until official count is done.
[image loading]

Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10135 Posts
May 26 2019 19:44 GMT
#24979
A lot going on in Spain since it wasn't only european elections, but also for the autonomous communities, province, etc. But just wanted to state my happiness about Valls crashing and burning hard.
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
May 26 2019 20:40 GMT
#24980
Italians being a pain in the ass as is their historical tradition make it so official results can be declared only at 23:00 CEST (20 minutes from now) and it seems that there are no real data for Czech results until then at all.
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
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