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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On September 27 2018 02:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
We use the term 'overfallsvoldtekt' (assault-rape, where a woman is assaulted by an unknown perpetrator, pretty much always late at night, often in a park, and usually beaten / threatened with a weapon until she submits, after which she is raped) as separate from 'voldtekt' (rape - sex without consent, by far more common, exemplified through situations like some girl drinks herself unconscious at a party and goes to sleep in some bed in the house and some drunk and horny guy comes in and rapes her, or abusive husband/boyfriend rapes his wife/girlfriend) in Norwegian too. There are far more examples of regular rape than assault-rape (GH's 9/10 is if anything on the low end), but 'non-ethnic norwegians' basically never engage in the latter. There was focus on this figure in the Norwegian media some years ago too, where iirc, 31 out of 31 reported assault-rapes had been committed by non-ethnic norwegians.
But yes, this figure was selected because it paints a much bleaker picture (of immigrants) than the overall figure - I don't have statistics for 'all of rape' for Norway, but anecdotally I know that white guys are if anything much more likely to end up doing the far more common 'party-rape' - if nothing else because they are far more likely to be drunk at parties when they are 16-20 than what the case is for muslims.
However, there's no reason to doubt Ghostcom's stories or statistics. He also didn't come out with an agenda (the only opinion he gave was that the proposed law sounded pretty terrifying); he was simply stating that in Denmark, they do keep statistics over ethnicity of criminals (it was alleged that this might not be legal in the EU, so it's obviously relevant), and these statistics show that immigrants / non-white people are very much overrepresented in various types of violent crime. (as it was alleged that right-wingers would find the relative parity of crime committed by race disappointing, also obviously relevant.)
I mean, I think it's important to call out cherry-picked statistics making it seem like all rape is committed by immigrants, because it's not true, but this seems like a misunderstanding, not something Ghostcom himself was doing. He specified assault-rape, which is established terminology in Norway and Denmark.
Personally, I have no problems acknowledging the truth of the statistics gathered while still being overwhelmingly pro-immigration; the statistics from denmark indicate some degree of failed integration (also true for Norway and many other countries, I'm sure), they indicate nothing about immigration being doomed from the get-go because cultures and or races cannot peacefully intermingle or about the erosion of western values. But they highlight that integration is a difficult political problem to tackle, and one that cannot possibly be tackled if one insists that 'immigration comes at no cost to society'. Acknowledging that people need some degree of help to thrive when arriving to a new country with a vastly different culture and language shouldn't be a problematic position to maintain, and I don't see the principal problem with the gathering of statistics relating to 'ethnicity and societal performance'. It's certainly true that this type of statistical gathering frequently has some nefarious intentions, and how it's being done in Austria seems to fit that mold, but this also isn't some type of law of nature. It can be used for good, too. (Not that I support the danish stance on immigration, it's much too harsh for my liking, but even then, I can still acknowledge the usefulness of the facts gathered by the Statistics Denmark. )
As always you hit the nail right on the head. I agree with literally everything in this post. (Especially that last paragraph)
EDIT: The issue with the proposed law is in my opinion 1) dictating what the press should write 2) treating media outlets differently. Data collection is fine as it can be used to highlight the need for a better integration-policy.
EDIT2: As it has been more or less directly alleged multiple times that I am a right-wing racist I will disclose that I voted "Radikale Venstre" which is a green, pro-immigration party. I also happen to do quite a lot of voluntary work including as a mentor for refugee kids through "Dansk Flygtningehjælp". You can think what you want, but well there it is. I merely brought up this data because that is exactly the kind of issues you would hear about if such a law passed.
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I sort of thought Dangermousecatdog accusation was a bit off base and I didn’t see much of an agenda in your posting. But to be fair to Dangermousecatdog, it is 2018 where overt racists are winning national elections, so everyone is less generous with their good faith.
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On September 27 2018 05:08 TheDwf wrote:
Some German insight about what happened to Merkel? Her candidate lost the group vote in the Parliament, so it's the end of the world?
It's not necessarily the end of the world for her, but it is a pretty big sign that her party is not completely behind her anymore. Apparently the CDU is gonna vote for the party boss in december, and if that turns out not to be merkel, that means that there are major problems for her. But she will still be chancellor, unless parliament decides to change that.
However you can't just unelect a chancellor in Germany, you have to replace her. Which is gonna be hard due to how fractured the Bundestag currently is. This is kinda weird, as it is not a usual situation. It is gonna be interesting to see how this turns out.
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On September 27 2018 05:16 Ghostcom wrote:
EDIT: The issue with the proposed law is in my opinion 1) dictating what the press should write 2) treating media outlets differently. Data collection is fine as it can be used to highlight the need for a better integration-policy.
1) Just saying that it is not a law, it was a government E-Mail to the police. (if you are talking about the Austrian case)
2) More data is good. And using regression approaches is often the best we can do in lack of more analytical theories. But correlation is not causation. From what I know we have a century of biology and social sciences disproving that ethnicity or nationality are in any way a cause for crimes or violence. Therefore we must not use them as explanatory variables.
The thing you should do with this data is to find causal forces for criminality that are correlated with people of migration background, like possibly poverty, unemployment, underpayment, being religious etc. And then use those for explanation and policy making.
What we are currently doing is going back from such reasoning to "lalalala foreigners are invading MY+ Show Spoiler +I believe we should ask for a proof of that claim, or otherwise, in the name of private property capitalism, severely punish any person for attempted theft of a whole country
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Thanks for the clarification - for some reason I had read it as being a proposal. I agree with the main sentiments of the rest of your post.
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Very interesting trend. I think Cliffe is probably right here that with the ongoing structural changes in the workforce and demographics the Greens have a good chance of replacing the SPD in the mid and long term.
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I don't think so.
The green voter base is fundamentally different from the old SPD base.
Instead of workers, the Green base is mostly well educated people who have nothing to worry about.
But now the middle and lower educated voters are running away from the SPD towards CDU/AfD. The idealistic lefties turn to the Linke, the realistic lefties abstain, and the the general well educated crowd runs to the Greens and the FDP. But the FDP also ruined their attraction with the post election drama they caused.
But the Greens won't suddenly get the workers in great numbers.... They have nothing to offer for them.... Their solutions are way too "abstract" and far away from the lower class people.
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That's sort of the point, there are not that many workers left. The AfD isn't the party of the workers, but the reactionary middle class. The average AfD voter earns more and is relatively educated, East Germans aside, who never were strong SPD or Green voters to begin with, or in any other way ideologically aligned.
Even the SPD doesn't win on working-class focussed programs, quite the opposite in fact, and with all parties more or less having reached a consensus on general welfare, it doesn't differentiate parties.
Green base is mostly well educated people who have nothing to worry about. [..]Their solutions are way too "abstract" and far away from the lower class people.
That's the majority of Germany by a large margin. There's a huge electorate in Germany for a moderate, liberal, environmental politics
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I also don't think that the SPD was only a "workers" party. A lot of people who are kinda left-ish, but don't want to vote for a totally left party like the Linke (who has an image of being a bit extreme), used to vote SPD. However, pretty much no one likes how the SPD acted during the great coalition (CDU + SPD), and now the new government is once again a great coalition.
It seems as if in this great coalition, the SPD does basically no left-ish things, doesn't seem to have any profile whatsoever, and seems to mostly be voting for CDU stuff. From that point of view, the SPD has become supremely unattractive to a lot of its voters, and the greens are the only choice for people who didn't want to vote for the Linke, and feel abandoned by the SPD. (Unless they want to go hard-right)
An important point i see here is that this is not necessarily the greens being very attractive, it is more so that a bunch of people who used to vote SPD really don't want to do that anymore, and are looking for a place to go to.
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The German Greens have a rather rich pool of personalities. People like Cem Özdemir or Winfried Kretschmann overshadow everyone except for Sahra Wagenknecht and Kevin Kühnert on the left and liberal spectrum in Germany.
Since the SPD has neither a profile nor hardly any personel to speak of and only feeds from its history and pensioneers, I believe that self-proclaimed "left-moderate" people just want to try something else. And because Germany has a strong party that is considered "hard-left" the Greens are painted as moderate and pragmatic by the media.
Also I think what we shouldn't underestimate is the transfer of bourgeoise votes towards Green parties. It's probably a bit varied in different cities, but talking about Vienna it turns out that the rich inner districts have turned from ÖVP-conservatives to liberal-Greens. With the splintering of the political system there are now alternatives for anti-socialist progressives, other than voting for "the non-socialist party".
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Must be so depressing to be a German left-winger at the moment. At least in France and UK we have decent perspectives
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On September 30 2018 20:19 TheDwf wrote:
Must be so depressing to be a German left-winger at the moment. At least in France and UK we have decent perspectives
Maybe decent 'perspectives' but in the UK it's pretty goddamn bleak in terms of hope.
Corbyn talks a great talk and has a lot of appeal inside labour, but he's a demonstrably awful party leader (very, VERY bad at handling the media when anything scandalous breaks) and he doesn't seem to pick the best people or respond correctly when they fuck up (Diane Abbott was a walking disaster who needed to be locked in a closet far away from any media a year or two ago). The only reason he's really starting to gain is that all but the most insane Brexiteers are getting pissed off with how the Tories are handling the most important political moment in our recent history.
And he isn't even capitalising on that properly by making it clear he was for leaving the EU (more or less) while Theresa clearly wanted to stay. That's half a campaign slogan in these troubled times.
I think there's a chance he'd be a good leader if he got in, but I think it's equally likely he wouldn't have a clue how to properly staff all the bits of government to actually get something done. Plus a lot of the Labour MPs despise him.
Realistically, unless the Tories fuck up again and start backstabbing each other (which - much like the scorpion on the back of the frog - they struggle to resist) Theresa Brexit is likely to see out most of the event because she is at least a highly experienced politician with vast knowledge of how the government works due to a very, very, veeeeeeeeeery long career. wavering around the upper echelons of government. I mean, her tenure as home secretary was the longest in recent political history, and has demonstrated extreme competence at the guts of politics (i.e. making things run properly).
As my boilerplate slogan for her goes: "All of Hilary Clinton's competence, none of her warmth or personality."
Also, doesn't help that the current batch of Tories are some of the most backstabby they've had in a long while, and almost every option other than her is awful.
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Hilary Clinton has warmth and personality?
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On September 30 2018 21:31 solidbebe wrote:
Hilary Clinton has warmth and personality?
Fake news, the bane of our times. 
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On September 30 2018 21:31 solidbebe wrote:
Hilary Clinton has warmth and personality?
That's the joke. May's even worse than Clinton in this respect. Hence her popular nickname "Maybot".
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On September 30 2018 22:22 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2018 21:31 solidbebe wrote:
Hilary Clinton has warmth and personality? That's the joke. May's even worse than Clinton in this respect. Hence her popular nickname "Maybot".
Except that it doesn't really work. What would work as "burn" for both of them would be if you said that May has none of Hilary Clinton's competence, but all of her warmth or personality.
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Idk what everyone expects. Even the inverted charisma of Boris Johnson wouldn't suffice for the task she's out to accomplish. What do they say, can't polish a turd.
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On September 30 2018 22:30 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2018 22:22 iamthedave wrote:On September 30 2018 21:31 solidbebe wrote:
Hilary Clinton has warmth and personality? That's the joke. May's even worse than Clinton in this respect. Hence her popular nickname "Maybot". Except that it doesn't really work. What would work as "burn" for both of them would be if you said that May has none of Hilary Clinton's competence, but all of her warmth or personality.
Eh, neither of them have either, so it kind of falls flat no matter how you choose to frame it.
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On September 30 2018 08:23 Big J wrote:
The German Greens have a rather rich pool of personalities. People like Cem Özdemir or Winfried Kretschmann overshadow everyone except for Sahra Wagenknecht and Kevin Kühnert on the left and liberal spectrum in Germany.
Since the SPD has neither a profile nor hardly any personel to speak of and only feeds from its history and pensioneers, I believe that self-proclaimed "left-moderate" people just want to try something else. And because Germany has a strong party that is considered "hard-left" the Greens are painted as moderate and pragmatic by the media.
Also I think what we shouldn't underestimate is the transfer of bourgeoise votes towards Green parties. It's probably a bit varied in different cities, but talking about Vienna it turns out that the rich inner districts have turned from ÖVP-conservatives to liberal-Greens. With the splintering of the political system there are now alternatives for anti-socialist progressives, other than voting for "the non-socialist party".
Agreed. The fact that Habeck and Kretschmann are more centralist than Hofreiter and probably even Özdemir helps them a lot establishing themselves as a left centrist party as well.
On the other hand the SPD's old guard has no likeable personalities left. Nahles has been a walking disaster since she entered the party and Gabriel, Schulz (who led a terrible campaign) and Steinmeier are disempowered and Kühnert doesn't seem to be ready or powerful enough to throw Nahles under the bus yet.
And then there's Maas who multiple times made clear that he thinks that the Orson Wells' 1982 system is something to strive for and misused his position as the minister of law to push supervision laws (inner security is normally the job of the ministry of interior). Makes me half wish the SPD drops out of the parliament before the next election so Maas cant get anywhere near a ministry ever again.
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EPT
