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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1186

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 15:21:20
September 25 2018 15:02 GMT
#23701
It's a fraction... There were obviously more than 12 cases. These numbers were revealed by a group of journalists who read through all the cases from January 2016 and until end of May 2017.

EDIT: I misremembered and stand corrected: There were in fact only 12 assault rapes in that period.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom10024 Posts
September 25 2018 15:04 GMT
#23702
On September 26 2018 00:02 Ghostcom wrote:
It's a fraction... There were obviously more than 12 cases. These numbers were revealed by a group of journalists who read through all the cases from January 2016 and until end of May 2017.


I'd like to see a source for this.
'People with an immigrant background' is the kind of phrase you hear in extreme right wing circles to mean non-whites. Often those people are domestic nationals in every possible sense.
RIP Meatloaf <3
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 15:14:07
September 25 2018 15:05 GMT
#23703
https://www.bt.dk/voldtaget/unik-optaelling-10-ud-af-12-overfaldsvoldtaegter-begaas-af-indvandrere-eller

And no, the expression is commonly used by Statistics Denmark in their reports (published every second year or so). It is a very well-defined term by them. Ironically whites are included (but when you look at the disaggregated data you'll notice that Asians and Whites are not really the ones inflating the numbers. It's all there on DST.dk, although they tend to update their website and shuffle the reports around quite often).

You can pretty much just Google #voldtaget and you will find the entire article series which was published during the summer by BT.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2397 Posts
September 25 2018 15:13 GMT
#23704
If we're going full-rightwingy shouldn't we identify the origin of the victims too? I mean, is the far right going to be as bothered if descendants of immigrants are raping descendents of immigrants as opposed to blue eyed natives?
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 15:37:06
September 25 2018 15:20 GMT
#23705
I am not aware of any such data from Statistics Denmark, but my experience is primarily with the medical, tax, occupational, and death registries. It might be there or it might require someone to collect the data directly from the judicial records (which should be publicly available) as the BT-journalists did.
solidbebe
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Netherlands4921 Posts
September 25 2018 15:32 GMT
#23706
On September 26 2018 00:13 warding wrote:
If we're going full-rightwingy shouldn't we identify the origin of the victims too? I mean, is the far right going to be as bothered if descendants of immigrants are raping descendents of immigrants as opposed to blue eyed natives?

Funnily enough I remember reading some data (cant remember where, or which country it was, sadly) about how most violence perpetrated by immigrants was aimed at other immigrants.

Id imagine the far-right wouldnt have too big an issue with that, other than it not being supportive of their narrative.
That's the 2nd time in a week I've seen someone sig a quote from this GD and I have never witnessed a sig quote happen in my TL history ever before. -Najda
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 15:50:30
September 25 2018 15:46 GMT
#23707
Sorry Ghostcom, you don't get to imply that you looked through statistics from Statistic Denmark, when in fact you have not; that's it is available on dst.dk, when in fact you cannot find it there, and I cannot find it either after. This is very dishonest of you.

Don't you think it is a problem if you don't try to look at the data yourself and try to assure other people that the data is there even though you cannot find it yourself?

Also wtf is "assault rape"? dst.dk only recognises rape, of which there are roughly 551 criminal convictions in between 2016 and half of 2017. There must be some very special Danish legalese that your bt.dk link points towards. This is some amazing definition that turns rape convictions from 551 to 12.

Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 16:55:40
September 25 2018 16:25 GMT
#23708
On September 26 2018 00:46 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Sorry Ghostcom, you don't get to imply that you looked through statistics from Statistic Denmark, when in fact you have not; that's it is available on dst.dk, when in fact you cannot find it there, and I cannot find it either after. This is very dishonest of you.

Don't you think it is a problem if you don't try to look at the data yourself and try to assure other people that the data is there even though you cannot find it yourself?

Also wtf is "assault rape"? dst.dk only recognises rape, of which there are roughly 551 criminal convictions in between 2016 and half of 2017. There must be some very special Danish legalese that your bt.dk link points towards. This is some amazing definition that turns rape convictions from 551 to 12.



I have linked to the dst data before in this thread - I am currently on a cellphone and thus not really inclined to dig up the data again currently. I'll do it when I get home if I remember it. The data on assault rapes was from the BT article (which I did link above). The data on every second rape being committed by an immigrant or descendant is also available from there (as well as the dst report on immigrants and their descendants).

In short, I have seen the data. I have supplied parts of the data previously and currently I have supplied the new data which was relevant to the discussion at hand (or at least a direct path to it). I admit that ideally I would have dug up the dst report again, but again - cellphone.

The assault rape is clearly defined by BT in their article as "a rape in which perpetrator and victim do not know each other or only know each other peripherally). It is not their definition, nor is it a definition limited to Denmark, although the correct English legal term is probably something else. I just went with the literal translation.

So no. I don't think I have a problem other than my increasing dislike of your posting style and lack of ability to separate argument from man.

EDIT: The report (the overview one, they have made special issues as well) is here: https://www.dst.dk/Site/Dst/Udgivelser/GetPubFile.aspx?id=20704&sid=indv2016
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
September 25 2018 16:51 GMT
#23709
Rape is a tough crime to focus on because many sexual assaults go unreported or are not reported for years after the event. I am left wondering if there is a reason why the rapes committed by immigrants or the descendants of immigrants are reported more often than other demographics.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
September 25 2018 17:02 GMT
#23710
Then let's focus on an the crime index (aggregate of pretty much everything). It's on page 84 of the report linked above.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 17:17:38
September 25 2018 17:17 GMT
#23711
On September 26 2018 01:51 Plansix wrote:
Rape is a tough crime to focus on because many sexual assaults go unreported or are not reported for years after the event. I am left wondering if there is a reason why the rapes committed by immigrants or the descendants of immigrants are reported more often than other demographics.


The assosciation of women shelters has reacted to the demand from the interior ministry, because it includes the demands to put a focus on sexual crimes in the public or between strangers.
They replied that most sexual crimes are between family members or in partnerships and not communicated for reasons of victim protection. Putting an additional focus on public crimes would distort the perception even further.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 17:44:58
September 25 2018 17:21 GMT
#23712
Unfortunately I cannot read Danish, so you are going to have to point me where this 10 out of 12 statistic you are on about comes from in the 102 page report. Your p84 makes no mention of rape, assault rape or sexual assault or assault. Assault rape is not a term in the UK, rape is rape, assault is assault, and sexual assault is sexual assault. There might be some special legalese in Denmark, but it is not one that dst.dk recognises that I can find of, your reassurance non-withstanding.

The fact that any newspaper can point to 12 cases in a year and a half should simply set alarm bells ringing that a massive degree of manipulation has occured when none should occur when dst.dk itself points to 340 convictions for rape in 2016 alone. Why when reporting on rape does whether the victim knows the assailant 24 hours before hand or not? In fact from reading the BT article it's personal definition, which could very well be wrong as I infact cannot read Danish, seems to be that in all 12 cases, the act of "rape" has not actually occured at all but is of attempted rape. Your BT article is trash, and so I am inclined to beleive that this BT newspaper is also trash. So point to me where this 12 cases of "assault rape" comes from in dst.dk.

I don't even know why I am arguing this. Who would ever beleive that there are only 12 convictions for rapes in the whole of Denmark in 1.5 years? Does Denmark has the most worthless criminal investigators in the developed world? That alone should suggest a massive amount of manipulation of data verging on the ludicrous.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
September 25 2018 18:03 GMT
#23713
Valls, our former Prime minister, resigns from his French député's seat to campaign in Spain in order to become Barcelona's mayor.

Apologies to our Spanish friends, you certainly did not deserve that.
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 18:06:02
September 25 2018 18:04 GMT
#23714
The 10/12 convictions were gathered by BT and is not available on dst (which I never claimed) as dst is based on registers (and the occasional questionnaire) and as such have no way of identifying relations other than family. However, I can add that their findings were confirmed by other newspapers as well as the justice department. It is legitimate to criticize the analysis as too narrow (although such crimes are highly relevant to the discussion of publishing ethnicity of high profile crimes as these are usually the highest profile ones), however the concept does exist outside of Denmark; the English term is apparently "rape by stranger" and as previously mentioned a well established concept (and rape certainly isn't rape - the circumstances are highly impactful for the trauma and long-term recovery of the rape victims). Sorry for not getting a niche term right in my fourth language...

Here is an article in a peer-reviewed journal using the term. Referencing multiple others doing the same. Your reassurance of such a concept not existing in the English language non-withstanding.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/2062190/

The term is also recognised by RAINN.

Page 84 contains data on the crime index. I never claimed it contained data on rape solely. That was a reply to Plansix to showcase that we could also look on other crime-data as the index is based on multiple diffent crimes from serious traffic violations to assault.

You are getting increasingly hostile so have a good night. I'm leaving to do better things.

To briefly sum up my original point which we have moved quite far away from: The right wing might not be all that dumb for wanting to reporting the ethnicity of the perpetrators. It can suit their message very well if they manage to control the narrative (by e.g. only allowing their own papers to report)
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 20:10:36
September 25 2018 18:17 GMT
#23715
On September 26 2018 03:04 Ghostcom wrote:
The 10/12 convictions were gathered by BT and is not available on dst (which I never claimed)
Oh really?

On September 25 2018 22:48 Ghostcom wrote:
It is perfectly legal in Denmark. In fact data is kept by Statistics Denmark (the governmental census bureau).

EDIT: If we can extrapolate from Danish data I do not think the right-wing will really be all that surprised. The overrepresentation is actually pretty big - especially for the higher profile things such as rape, murder and gang-crime.

Just to examplify: Looking through all cases through 1,5 years 10 of 12 assault rapes were committed by immigrants or their descendants in a recent review the data. Every second conviction of rape (any) had an immigrant as the perpetrator.

On September 26 2018 00:05 Ghostcom wrote:
https://www.bt.dk/voldtaget/unik-optaelling-10-ud-af-12-overfaldsvoldtaegter-begaas-af-indvandrere-eller

And no, the expression is commonly used by Statistics Denmark in their reports (published every second year or so). It is a very well-defined term by them. Ironically whites are included (but when you look at the disaggregated data you'll notice that Asians and Whites are not really the ones inflating the numbers. It's all there on DST.dk, although they tend to update their website and shuffle the reports around quite often).
Never claimed huh?

On September 26 2018 03:04 Ghostcom wrote:
Here is an article in a peer-reviewed journal using the term. Referencing multiple others doing the same. Your reassurance of such a concept not existing in the English language non-withstanding.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/2062190/
In which the link has not a single reference to "assault rape". Why lie? Just google "stranger rape" and grab and leave? Also does not reference multiple others by sheer dint of not having any references at all! Why lie?

On September 26 2018 03:04 Ghostcom wrote:
The term is also recognised by RAINN.
Not only is whatever RAINN is, is an American helpline, not Danish legalese, it also doesn't recognise "assault rape" either: https://www.rainn.org/types-sexual-violence Why lie?

On September 26 2018 03:04 Ghostcom wrote:
Page 84 contains data on the crime index. I never claimed it contained data on rape solely. That was a reply to Plansix to showcase that we could also look on other crime-data as the index is based on multiple diffent crimes from serious traffic violations to assault.
Not only did you quote me in the post you wrote the link to, Plansix replied after you posted the link to the report. In which you now claim was replying to. So who was you posting the link to? Why lie?


Everything you just wrote is a lie. Instead of being mystified that the rape statistic for the official Denmark Statistical Site which you initially referred to has 340 rape convictions in 2016 is magically reported as 12, you double down and randomly grab articles, none of which substantiate your claims. Why dig deeper into the hole you put yourself into. perhaps you should come to the conclusion that BT.dk is an absolutely trash news source and it shouldn't be a source of news for anybody.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24479 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 20:19:33
September 25 2018 20:19 GMT
#23716
I think one issue is that "assault rapes" are basically the least common kind. The overwhelming majority (~9 out of 10) of rapes are committed by family and friends. At least that's the case in the US, don't imagine it's different in most of the world.

So that would explain how you get a conflict between the 12 "assault rapes" vs the hundreds of rapes that probably aren't immigrants.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 21:28:52
September 25 2018 21:11 GMT
#23717
Yes, but you wouldn't get Ghostcom to admit that the information were totally chosen to fulfil his favoured agenda, even though it is totally obvious that it has been cherrypicked. "Assault rape" does not appear to be a Danish legal term. The Statistics Denmark (the governmental census bureau), the very site he pointed to as looking through the cases and finding 10 out of 12, in which he assures us that it is a " very well-defined term by them", has 10 separate categories for sexual offences (I'm not kidding, go look for yourself), none of which is "assault rape".

It is also in English, so no chance of mistranslation there. The trash BT newspaper which he linked to afterwards appears to define "assault rape" as attempted rapes that were unsuccessful, but successfully found a criminal conviction for rape. Wow! Isn't that awfully specific? Not that ghostcom will admit that either.

Which without any understanding of Danish legalese, I can understand why the perpetrator would be charged with the criminal offence of rape for even if the actual act of what is commonly udnerstood to be rape did not actually occur. Unfortunately it is so obviously manipulated it must be pointed out that not only is it wilfully manipulated to paint the worst image of immigrants possible by excluding approx 539* other cases of rape, it is also obvious that it has been wilfully manipulated unless anybody beleives that there are only 12 convictions for rape in Denmark.

*http://www.statbank.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1920
*Living conditions => Convictions => STRAF40 Decisions by type of offence, type og decision, age and sex (1980-2017)
*Rape, etc 2016 = 340
*Rape, etc 2017 = 427

Lastly lets not forget that ghostcom randomly grabbed 2 sites in which he purports to use "assault rape" but in fact does not. Do I seem like I have no patience for him? That's because he does this a lot. He doesn't get the benefit of the doubt any longer. He is not a good faith actor.


GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24479 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-25 21:48:16
September 25 2018 21:47 GMT
#23718
On September 26 2018 06:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Yes, but you wouldn't get Ghostcom to admit that the information were totally chosen to fulfil his favoured agenda, even though it is totally obvious that it has been cherrypicked. "Assault rape" does not appear to be a Danish legal term. The Statistics Denmark (the governmental census bureau), the very site he pointed to as looking through the cases and finding 10 out of 12, in which he assures us that it is a " very well-defined term by them", has 10 separate categories for sexual offences (I'm not kidding, go look for yourself), none of which is "assault rape".

It is also in English, so no chance of mistranslation there. The trash BT newspaper which he linked to afterwards appears to define "assault rape" as attempted rapes that were unsuccessful, but successfully found a criminal conviction for rape. Wow! Isn't that awfully specific? Not that ghostcom will admit that either.

Which without any understanding of Danish legalese, I can understand why the perpetrator would be charged with the criminal offence of rape for even if the actual act of what is commonly udnerstood to be rape did not actually occur. Unfortunately it is so obviously manipulated it must be pointed out that not only is it wilfully manipulated to paint the worst image of immigrants possible by excluding approx 539* other cases of rape, it is also obvious that it has been wilfully manipulated unless anybody beleives that there are only 12 convictions for rape in Denmark.

*http://www.statbank.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1920
*Living conditions => Convictions => STRAF40 Decisions by type of offence, type og decision, age and sex (1980-2017)
*Rape, etc 2016 = 340
*Rape, etc 2017 = 427

Lastly lets not forget that ghostcom randomly grabbed 2 sites in which he purports to use "assault rape" but in fact does not. Do I seem like I have no patience for him? That's because he does this a lot. He doesn't get the benefit of the doubt any longer. He is not a good faith actor.




If I can avoid getting overly invested I think it's best for everyone I do, but it does seem difficult to deny the statistic and presentation is intentionally and deceptively manipulative. Intended to cast a poor light on immigrants that isn't reflective of the experiences of the overwhelming majority of them or the people they interact with or rape victims/perpetrators in general. That's my observation anyway.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28918 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-09-26 20:09:57
September 26 2018 17:43 GMT
#23719
We use the term 'overfallsvoldtekt' (assault-rape, where a woman is assaulted by an unknown perpetrator, pretty much always late at night, often in a park, and usually beaten / threatened with a weapon until she submits, after which she is raped) as separate from 'voldtekt' (rape - sex without consent, by far more common, exemplified through situations like some girl drinks herself unconscious at a party and goes to sleep in some bed in the house and some drunk and horny guy comes in and rapes her, or abusive husband/boyfriend rapes his wife/girlfriend) in Norwegian too. There are far more examples of regular rape than assault-rape (GH's 9/10 is if anything on the low end), but 'non-ethnic norwegians' basically never engage in the latter. There was focus on this figure in the Norwegian media some years ago too, where iirc, 31 out of 31 reported assault-rapes had been committed by non-ethnic norwegians.

But yes, this figure was selected because it paints a much bleaker picture (of immigrants) than the overall figure - I don't have statistics for 'all of rape' for Norway, but anecdotally I know that white guys are if anything much more likely to end up doing the far more common 'party-rape' - if nothing else because they are far more likely to be drunk at parties when they are 16-20 than what the case is for muslims.

However, there's no reason to doubt Ghostcom's stories or statistics. He also didn't come out with an agenda (the only opinion he gave was that the proposed law sounded pretty terrifying); he was simply stating that in Denmark, they do keep statistics over ethnicity of criminals (it was alleged that this might not be legal in the EU, so it's obviously relevant), and these statistics show that immigrants / non-white people are very much overrepresented in various types of violent crime. (as it was alleged that right-wingers would find the relative parity of crime committed by race disappointing, also obviously relevant.)

I mean, I think it's important to call out cherry-picked statistics making it seem like all rape is committed by immigrants, because it's not true, but this seems like a misunderstanding, not something Ghostcom himself was doing. He specified assault-rape, which is established terminology in Norway and Denmark.

Personally, I have no problems acknowledging the truth of the statistics gathered while still being overwhelmingly pro-immigration; the statistics from denmark indicate some degree of failed integration (also true for Norway and many other countries, I'm sure), they indicate nothing about immigration being doomed from the get-go because cultures and or races cannot peacefully intermingle or about the erosion of western values. But they highlight that integration is a difficult political problem to tackle, and one that cannot possibly be tackled if one insists that 'immigration comes at no cost to society'. Acknowledging that people need some degree of help to thrive when arriving to a new country with a vastly different culture and language shouldn't be a problematic position to maintain, and I don't see the principal problem with the gathering of statistics relating to 'ethnicity and societal performance'. It's certainly true that this type of statistical gathering frequently has some nefarious intentions, and how it's being done in Austria seems to fit that mold, but this also isn't some type of law of nature. It can be used for good, too. (Not that I support the danish stance on immigration, it's much too harsh for my liking, but even then, I can still acknowledge the usefulness of the facts gathered by the Statistics Denmark. )
Moderator
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
September 26 2018 20:08 GMT
#23720
Some German insight about what happened to Merkel? Her candidate lost the group vote in the Parliament, so it's the end of the world?
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