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Malaysian airliner shot down over Eastern Ukraine - Page 59

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In order to maintain some kind of respectable thread quality and to show some respect for those who lost friends in this tragedy, we're forced to enact a hard line policy for this thread. Any posts holding an opinion on who is responsible or making an accusation that is not held by neutral media will be banned. Policy is in effect from page 27 onwards.

Specifically, citing a Ukrainian or Russian source for your claims is going to get you banned. Opinions/facts/accusations arising from neutral media sources (i.e. media whose country of origin is not Ukraine, Russia or one of its puppet states) will be permitted. This policy extends to all forms of media; if a youtube video or picture has not come through a neutral media source then don't post it or you'll be banned. If you wish to discuss this policy please use this website feedback thread.

Updated policy on aggressive posting and insults.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 21 2014 18:53 GMT
#1161
On July 22 2014 02:59 mainerd wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 22 2014 02:45 Sub40APM wrote:
Gotta love the Russian editors of wikipedia. Here is the Su-25 wiki page, subsection Ukrainian conflict
On 21 July 2014, Russian Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartapolov stated that there was no proof for Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 being shot down by a rebel BUK anti-air missile. Instead, the Russian General showed proof of a Ukrainian Su-25 flying as close as 3,000 meters to the Malaysia aircraft before it crashed; he asked the Ukrainian government for an official statement on this finding,[52] although this is questionable given the Su-25's maximum service ceiling is 16,000 ft fully armed.

There was different information on SU-25 service ceiling just a few years ago - and these specs didn't change since (only the article was edited and somehow the editing history too [not deep enough at the moment] to support US version of Ukrainian war). The ceiling was 24000 ft while fully armed. Besides, being fully armed, it can still reach 35000 ft if only for a little while and attack it's airborne targets (check the term [ceiling]). SU-25 jet is fully capable of shooting down a Boeing 777 passenger airplane at 33000-35000 feet. And if you consider that one can arm it with just a few AA missiles specifically for this purpose, this capability increases greatly.


Then click on the capabilities: fully loaded : 16,000 feet. Unarmed, 22,000 feet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-25#Specifications_.28Su-25.2FSu-25K.2C_late_production.29

The page had already changed by the time I checked it after your post.
Show nested quote +
he asked the Ukrainian government for an official statement on this finding,[52] although this is above the Su-25's maximum service ceiling when fully armed.[citation needed]It was me russian asshole

Wikipedia may want to lock some of their pages related to the incident :X

Ya, really fascinating to check out the edit history in line with the Russian briefing about the putative Ukrainian Su-25 intercepting the jet. http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sukhoi_Su-25&action=history

The weirdest thing in the same briefing they also blamed Ukrainian Buk's for the shot down. The more trash you throw on the wall, the more likely something will stick I guess.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 21 2014 19:15 GMT
#1162


Now for the interpretation wrangling.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 21 2014 19:44 GMT
#1163
Transcribing the UNSC meeting on MH17 as much as I can. Mistakes and omissions will happen.

LU: Solidarity with families, friends, countries of origin. Support: full, thorough, independent (FTI) int. investigation. SC has been able to reach a consensus on a resolution. There must be support for Ukrainian efforts, in cooperation with int. experts. To institute an int. investigation, the behaviour of illegal armed groups in the cite of the crash is unacceptable. Groups must comply with UNSC, must provide full and unrestricted access to the crash site. Must stop military activity near the site.

We want Poroshenko to provide a unilateral cease fire in a 40km radius.

We call upon RU to use its influence over the illegal groups. RU must bring its full weight to bear that they stop removing damning evidence, black boxes surrendered to authorities and bodies returned.

We must scale up diplo. efforts to solve the crisis. Need a new ceasefire honoured by all parties, following Poroshenko's peace plan. All parties, especially RU, must commit to the peace process.

UK:

i'd like to ack. FMs from Holland, Australia and LU at this meeting.

UK is in mourning.

We have all seen the images. We owe it to their memory that their remains are treated with dignity and respect. We also must find out what happened. It's the united demand of the int. community.

What we have witnessed is sickening. Separatists trampling over the sight, even looting personal effects. Violated proceedings of an incident of this type.

Pro Russian separatists must give bodies back to families.

Resolution supports, F,T,I investigation. It demands that separatists don't further compromise site. Footage showed a flight recorder being removed. This is unacceptable.

Accountability message: those responsibility, and those complicit in shooting down must be held accountable. The source of the crisis is Russia's attempt to destabilize a state, Russia supporting and arming separatists in Ukraine.

Nigeria:

New global threat. Insecurity has an effect on the human race.

Principal FTI investigation.

Korea:

To shed full light, imperative safe, unrestricted access needed for int. experts. Bodies must be recovered and treated with a dignified.. manner.

Need full participation of all parties, esp. separatists.

We stress that the perpetrators must be brought to justice as promptly as possible.

US:

Today's resolution calls for a FTI investigation. When 298 civilians are killed we must stop at nothing to bring perps. to justice.

We extend deepest condolences to countries, families, and ... .

As we reflect on the loss, we're not only outraged at attack itself, but also horrified and enraged by what followed. Obstructing investigation, even after adopting this resolution, is there truly consensus. We came together because not everyone was in favour of an investigation, as then the wreckage would have been unperturbed. Armed thugs marauded over the sight.

We have seen separatists moving around the bodies, and taking away evidence.

Those bodies deserve dignity.

We condemn the actions of the separatists who control the sight. But from RU we have heard very little condenation. RU has insinuated that Ukrainian air traffic controllers are to blame, now they blame UKR for shooting it down. Despite the missile coming from rebel territory.

No resolution would have been necessary if RU had used its support in the last 4 days. Only this morning did Putin issue a public call for int. experts. But Putin hasn't directed that call to separatists over who he has enormous influence.

Poroshenko has included others, especially NL. Russia's muteness sent a msg to illegal armed groups. Message sent by sending heavy weapons, not asking them to lay down weapons, and massing forces near borders.

This resolution will lead to an investigation to uncover facts, even if it leads to unwelcome facts.

We are seeing initial signs of more access to the site. But let's be clear, this is time-sensitive. Letting in a few experts will not be enough, letting in a few at a time is still obstruction.

RU can demand separatists to declare a ceasefire in the area, like UKR has.

RU can call back heavy weaponry it has sent the separatists.

This would be a long-overdue sign that RU is willing to end this long bloody crisis.

China:

China deplores the crash. In his recent statement Chinese Pres. expressed shock at the crash, mourned the death of victims, and expressed condolences. Stressed need for partial and impartial investigation to establish truth.

ICAO should play a crucial role in this inv. China calls all parties to cooperate with them.

Our emphasis should be to establish the truth. No side should blame others before that is established.

.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 21 2014 19:48 GMT
#1164
Chile:

Family members of victims deserve to learn the truth. All parties must cooperate with the relevant authorities.

Condolences from Chile.

Crash reminds countries of the effect of the crisis across borders.



FR:

We must quickly implement an investigation, we owe it to the people who dies on the crash.

FR immediately asked for an int. investigation.

Through the resolution, the int. community has taken a first step towards an inv.

It falls to Ukraine, and int. experts to lead the investigation. All needs to be done, by all parties, and states in the Region. Unfettered access to victims, crash site and materiel.

We are alarmed that there's obstruction by the separatists, that the site is not manipulated.

We ask the UNSG to present options to solve the crisis.

Those responsibility for the shooting must answer for their heinous act.

Jordan next...

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
July 21 2014 19:53 GMT
#1165
In conjunction with Ghans good work on transcribing the SC meeting, the chinese perspective seems to be very cautious in their approach and very close to the russian story. Basically things are unclear and the reactions are not based on facts. Western anti-russian propaganda is misplaced. Particularly US and Australia, which is not surprising given their official reactions.
src
Repeat before me
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 21 2014 20:03 GMT
#1166
Jordan:

MH17 downing a criminal act.

FTI investigation with the aim to hold perps. accountable.

Need to bring closure to the families of the victims.

All parties need to cooperate in the implementation, protect the site, and unfettered access to the site for experts.



ARG:

A number of different points of view were taken into account in the resolution. Need to understand the crash in an objective manner.

Given reports of limits to access to the authorities and OSCE, and other int. orgs; the SC could not remain silent. Absolutely necessary that we show concern, and demand that immediate, safe, unimpeded and thorough access be granted. While the UNSC did underscore the need on the 18th, we see ourselves in need to demand it today.

This has been unanimously demanded by the entire world.

Based on the evidence, we must urge legal bodies with jurisdiction to hold perps. accountable.

All military activity must cease and desist around the crash site and a safe area be established for investigators.

We support all efforts by bodies which would be impartial.

UNSG is being asked for lines of actions.

ARG has asked that we are cautious, we reiterate that we shouldn't interpret based on geopolitics, or pointing fingers.

Remains need dignified treatment.



Russia:

Condolences to the families, countries, etc.

There needs to be totally impartial, independent investigation.

Context clarification: ECAL needs a leading role. All proof, including black boxes, should be given to int. experts. The grounds need to be given access.

Need humanitarian corridors.

On the crash site there needs to be a full complement of experts. Russia stands ready to provide help to the investigation. We can provide experts.

But there can be no jumping to conclusions.

Kyiv is trying to draw upon the incident to push its attack, artillery is hitting cities, and killing civilians. Kyiv isn't acting with restraint.

Russia has found itself in a similar situation when UKR downed a Russian flight over Crimea in 2001.

The circumstances became clear right after. Ukraine has avoided responsibility. Under this situation, Kyiv shouldn't be given a lead in the investigation.

Kyiv needs to answer for its air traffic controllers, why a UKR BUK was in the region, why it was removed soon after, why raiders were working at an all-time high.

So far Kyiv has provided touched up evidence like the rebel communication which took place earlier than the 17th.

Let's not forget that the reason for MH17 was that of a clash in Ukraine, we need peaceful negotiations (Geneva, Berlin).



Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-21 20:08:47
July 21 2014 20:07 GMT
#1167
Lithuania:

Investigators were obstructed by illegal terrorists. Black boxes in the hands of terrorists. Only after pressure, OSCE was allowed on the site.

Dignity for victims.

Perps. to be brought to justice.

We welcome unanimity.

We have requested that the SG reports to the SC to provide alternatives.

We commend UKR on its effort to bring about full and partial investigation, and its ceasefire in a 40km radius. Do we expect a similar announcement from illegal terrorists?

RU provides heavy military equipment to the terrorists. We ask RU to separate itself from all support to the terrorists. The number of civilians grows, the group don't care about civilians.

We urge states to top military coop. with RU.

***

That might be all the important ones done... Taking a break.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 21 2014 20:09 GMT
#1168
Isnt it 9 pm already in Donetsk, did the Malaysians get the black-boxes? The reporters I am reading saying no.
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-21 20:10:49
July 21 2014 20:09 GMT
#1169
The resolution does nothing and is just for show. Putin has promised to keep rebels away from the crash site like 5-6 times before and done nothing of the sort. At this point its pretty freaking obvious what happened and the results of any investigation will be less than what the Russians will consider unimpeachable, so what's the point?
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 21 2014 20:26 GMT
#1170
NL

Anyone who has influence, let us bring our dead home.

NL will do its utmost to repatriate all victims.

I also welcome a setting up a proper investigation. NL has proposed to take a leading role, together with other organizations.

Concerning the security of the site, I underline that the UNSC must take more measures if the situation so requires. Accountability and justice must be delivered.

We will not rest until all facts are known and justice is served.



Malaysia:

Thank you for the opp. to be present here.

Resolution provides a groundwork for an investigation.

FTI investigation owed to victim.

Last Friday I informed that Malaysia would dispatch inv. team. The team has joined other teams on Saturday. We regret to note that the joint team has not been given full access to the crash site, this is not acceptable.

Need full guarantees for safety. Must withhold the integrity of the crash site. Dignified and respectful treatment of bodies.

Families and close ones need closure.

MH17 was civilian... [net went out]

Indonesia next, taking a break again.


Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
July 21 2014 20:41 GMT
#1171
On July 22 2014 05:09 Sub40APM wrote:
Isnt it 9 pm already in Donetsk, did the Malaysians get the black-boxes? The reporters I am reading saying no.

In Donetsk, black box negotiations remain murky and fraught, my colleague Shaun Walker reports.

From the hotel where the Malaysian delegation met rebel leaders, he tells me that "Talks are ongoing, but it's unclear if this is a handover or a negotiation."

When the initial meeting took place, a "massive media scrum" took over the hotel lobby and it seems the black boxes never actually arrived with the rebel representatives.

The Kyiv Post's Christopher Miller and Buzzfeed's Max Seddon have similar accounts.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/21/mh17-disaster-ukraine-obama-live-updates

So no. Not sure what they can negotiate over with Malaysia of all places.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 21 2014 20:43 GMT
#1172
http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782?utm_content=buffer5c089&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
The result of all this Russian coverage is that Russians’ understanding of what happened is as follows. At best, the crash is an unfortunate accident on the part of the Ukrainian military that the West is trying to pin on Russia, which had nothing to do with it; at worst, it is all part of a nefarious conspiracy to drag Russia into an apocalyptic war with the West. So whereas the West sees the crash as a game-changer, the Russians do not see why a black swan event has to change anything or they want to resist what they see is a provocation. To them, after a few days of watching Russian television, it’s not at all clear what happened nor that their government is somehow responsible for this tragedy. And the more we insist on it, the less likely the Russians are to agree.

Floriana Fossato, a longtime scholar of Russian media, says that this, coupled with the media’s conscious use of the Soviet language of crisis—“traitors,” “fascists,” “fifth columns”—quickly brings to the surface the psychological demons of a society massively traumatized by the twentieth century, traumas that society has never adequately addressed. The result, she says, is a kind of collective PTSD-meets-Stockholm Syndrome.

In Russians' view, “Americans have recreated the situation where they have excuse for intervention,” Fossato says. “No one admits that they are afraid, but they are. They are panicked. And they are right in being afraid because they know what happened, and they know there must be an answer to what is going on. And so they lock onto Putin for protection. This is why they don’t turn to Putin and ask him to do something.”

But in addition to the Russian public not clamoring for decisive action from Putin, there is a far more serious problem. As The New Yorker's David Remnick noted in his column on the crash of MH17, Putin has become prisoner to his own propaganda machine, much as he’s become prisoner of the rebels he thought were doing his geopolitical dirty work in Ukraine.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
July 21 2014 20:49 GMT
#1173
On July 22 2014 03:53 Sub40APM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 22 2014 02:59 mainerd wrote:
On July 22 2014 02:45 Sub40APM wrote:
Gotta love the Russian editors of wikipedia. Here is the Su-25 wiki page, subsection Ukrainian conflict
On 21 July 2014, Russian Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartapolov stated that there was no proof for Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 being shot down by a rebel BUK anti-air missile. Instead, the Russian General showed proof of a Ukrainian Su-25 flying as close as 3,000 meters to the Malaysia aircraft before it crashed; he asked the Ukrainian government for an official statement on this finding,[52] although this is questionable given the Su-25's maximum service ceiling is 16,000 ft fully armed.

There was different information on SU-25 service ceiling just a few years ago - and these specs didn't change since (only the article was edited and somehow the editing history too [not deep enough at the moment] to support US version of Ukrainian war). The ceiling was 24000 ft while fully armed. Besides, being fully armed, it can still reach 35000 ft if only for a little while and attack it's airborne targets (check the term [ceiling]). SU-25 jet is fully capable of shooting down a Boeing 777 passenger airplane at 33000-35000 feet. And if you consider that one can arm it with just a few AA missiles specifically for this purpose, this capability increases greatly.


Then click on the capabilities: fully loaded : 16,000 feet. Unarmed, 22,000 feet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-25#Specifications_.28Su-25.2FSu-25K.2C_late_production.29

The page had already changed by the time I checked it after your post.
he asked the Ukrainian government for an official statement on this finding,[52] although this is above the Su-25's maximum service ceiling when fully armed.[citation needed]It was me russian asshole

Wikipedia may want to lock some of their pages related to the incident :X

Ya, really fascinating to check out the edit history in line with the Russian briefing about the putative Ukrainian Su-25 intercepting the jet. http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sukhoi_Su-25&action=history

The weirdest thing in the same briefing they also blamed Ukrainian Buk's for the shot down. The more trash you throw on the wall, the more likely something will stick I guess.

This two-stringed approach to narrative seems very counterproductive at the moment. However, the ground to air has been the western story, so playing along with that seems like the only reasonable longer term strategy in case wreckage or other evidence can cooperate that story.
The war-plane stories seems to mostly play out as FUD in the russian media. It is making people doubt the ground to air theories and will give more time to come up with a more convincing story about what happened.
Repeat before me
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
July 21 2014 21:51 GMT
#1174
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Dutch prosecutors have opened an investigation into the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17 on suspicion of murder, war crimes and intentionally downing an airliner, a spokesman said on Monday. Based on the Law on International Crimes, the Netherlands can prosecute any individual who committed a war crime against a Dutch citizen. The 298 people who were killed when the plane was downed over Ukraine included 193 Dutch citizens.

The spokesman said that a Dutch public prosecutor was in Ukraine as part of the investigation.

The Dutch prime minister meanwhile threatened tough action against Russia if it did not do more to help.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
gorbonic
Profile Joined April 2010
United States73 Posts
July 21 2014 21:56 GMT
#1175
On July 22 2014 05:09 Derez wrote:
...At this point its pretty freaking obvious what happened and the results of any investigation will be less than what the Russians will consider unimpeachable, so what's the point?

I agree, and would add that the problem now lies in the ambiguity of "bringing perpetrators to justice" and responding to Putin's "false" resolutions to help out.

In other words, nobody knows what to do with their knowledge of the situation: (1) that there is no way for either the separatist group or its backers to accept any sort of responsibility for (probably) shooting down the plane without giving up major strategic ground; (2) that from the "pro-separatist" perspective, this contingent tragedy (code for "oops!") is unrelated to their struggle and so becomes a drastic international situation only by its conspiratorial manipulation, which justifies a transference of fault to those who purport to identify with the victims; (3) that, ultimately, they could induce a kind of jaded peace by continued disavowal and forestalling of action.

(We should certainly wonder at this point what it means to "wait until all the facts are in.")
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
July 21 2014 22:14 GMT
#1176
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
July 21 2014 22:58 GMT
#1177
On July 22 2014 03:05 Nyxisto wrote:
You have to keep in mind though that the service ceiling is the height at which an aircraft can climb 100 feet/minute(or 500 feet/min for jets) and is fully operational. This is not to be confused with the Maximum Operating Altitude which basically means "it flies as high as it physically can". Some planes can double their service ceiling, for example most commercial airplanes can go up to 40k feet, while the service ceiling is something like 30k.


Not to mention, you have to add the range of the missile as well. Apparently the SU25 can carry either R-60 or K-13 missiles, with a range of roughly 22500 feet (8km) and 72000 feet (22km). So a jet at 22000 feet still can reach a plane at 40000 feet with it's missiles, operational/service ceiling doesn't matter in this case, doesn't tell anything.

But it's moot anyway, the investigations should tell pretty easy if it was hit by a AA missile or a BUK System. Even with those potatorrists running around like retards on the wreckage (quite a difference between a 7kg warhead and a 70kg warhead).

While it may never come out who actually fired whatever was fired, i'm pretty convinced that at least the type of missile will be found out.
On track to MA1950A.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 22 2014 00:04 GMT
#1178
On July 22 2014 07:58 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 22 2014 03:05 Nyxisto wrote:
You have to keep in mind though that the service ceiling is the height at which an aircraft can climb 100 feet/minute(or 500 feet/min for jets) and is fully operational. This is not to be confused with the Maximum Operating Altitude which basically means "it flies as high as it physically can". Some planes can double their service ceiling, for example most commercial airplanes can go up to 40k feet, while the service ceiling is something like 30k.


Not to mention, you have to add the range of the missile as well. Apparently the SU25 can carry either R-60 or K-13 missiles, with a range of roughly 22500 feet (8km) and 72000 feet (22km). So a jet at 22000 feet still can reach a plane at 40000 feet with it's missiles, operational/service ceiling doesn't matter in this case, doesn't tell anything.

But it's moot anyway, the investigations should tell pretty easy if it was hit by a AA missile or a BUK System. Even with those potatorrists running around like retards on the wreckage (quite a difference between a 7kg warhead and a 70kg warhead).

While it may never come out who actually fired whatever was fired, i'm pretty convinced that at least the type of missile will be found out.

Sure, a jet could. But according to Russian deputy minister of defense the Su-25 was following MH17 for protracted period of time at the same altitude before shooting it down with an air to air missile. Which it fired simultaneously with a BUK SAM battery that the Ukrainians snuck deep into rebel territory.
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
July 22 2014 00:53 GMT
#1179
I wonder what the documents the Malaysians signed said. Did they surface in the Russian press yet?
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
July 22 2014 01:03 GMT
#1180
On July 22 2014 09:04 Sub40APM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 22 2014 07:58 m4ini wrote:
On July 22 2014 03:05 Nyxisto wrote:
You have to keep in mind though that the service ceiling is the height at which an aircraft can climb 100 feet/minute(or 500 feet/min for jets) and is fully operational. This is not to be confused with the Maximum Operating Altitude which basically means "it flies as high as it physically can". Some planes can double their service ceiling, for example most commercial airplanes can go up to 40k feet, while the service ceiling is something like 30k.


Not to mention, you have to add the range of the missile as well. Apparently the SU25 can carry either R-60 or K-13 missiles, with a range of roughly 22500 feet (8km) and 72000 feet (22km). So a jet at 22000 feet still can reach a plane at 40000 feet with it's missiles, operational/service ceiling doesn't matter in this case, doesn't tell anything.

But it's moot anyway, the investigations should tell pretty easy if it was hit by a AA missile or a BUK System. Even with those potatorrists running around like retards on the wreckage (quite a difference between a 7kg warhead and a 70kg warhead).

While it may never come out who actually fired whatever was fired, i'm pretty convinced that at least the type of missile will be found out.

Sure, a jet could. But according to Russian deputy minister of defense the Su-25 was following MH17 for protracted period of time at the same altitude before shooting it down with an air to air missile. Which it fired simultaneously with a BUK SAM battery that the Ukrainians snuck deep into rebel territory.


Didn't know they claimed that the jet followed the airliner for ages on the same altitude before shooting it down.

I have to correct myself though, the frogfoot does not reach 33k feet. Nyxisto has it kinda right, but not quite. 23k feet is the service ceiling of the SU-25 clean. Means, no weapons, only partial fuelload. Since it's a ground-attack plane, to have AA missiles loaded it's safe to assume it was fully kitted weaponwise (doesn't make sense to send your ground-attackplane with only AA missiles into the air). Fully kitted the service ceiling of the frogfoot is 16000 feet. It doesn't have afterburners (i assume the ukraine wouldn't have the most recent SU25TMs), so it won't go much higher.

Not to mention (afaik) that even IF it'd reach 33000 feet huffing and puffing, it would be too slow to follow MH17.

But doesn't change the fact that it'll be pretty easy to distinguish between a small missile and a BUK hit. Not to mention, if there was a fighterjet following, the flight recorders will tell (i think they record radar contacts, yes?).
On track to MA1950A.
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