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RaiZ
2813 Posts
On December 02 2013 11:05 Sermokala wrote: believe it or not its usually highly illegal to shoot your gun for no reason in america. If nothing else for the noise violations. I'm not sure a lot of ppl care about it... | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On December 03 2013 01:09 TheFish7 wrote: It really isn't though. That amount is just a drop in the bucket compared to the total amount of land area they'd need to cover to make this venture worthwhile. Discussing the mathematics of something that doesn't exist is equally inconsequential. A 10-mile radius covers 314 sq miles. New York - 302.6 sq miles Los Angeles - 469 sq miles London - 607 sq miles Tokyo - 845 sq miles They don't need to cover people living in the middle of nowhere. | ||
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TheFish7
United States2824 Posts
On December 03 2013 04:13 andrewlt wrote: A 10-mile radius covers 314 sq miles. New York - 302.6 sq miles Los Angeles - 469 sq miles London - 607 sq miles Tokyo - 845 sq miles They don't need to cover people living in the middle of nowhere. Let's assume that range is not an issue, and that Amazon has a distribution warehouse in the middle of central park and every major city. You still have all of the engineering feats that would need to take place to program these drones to not only automatically navigate themselves to an address, but also avoid other drones and the occasional skyscraper along the way. Assuming that can be done through some clever AI, these drones still need to run on some type of energy source, which would need to be only marginally more expensive than current methods despite the immense diseconomies of scale involved in moving from truckloads to one 5 pound package at a time. These drones will need to be maintained, which will require technicians to be trained in the how. Guys who were stealing packages have now suddenly moved up to stealing drones. Amazon has special agreements with the USPS to deliver packages, if you're taking business from that now you're pissing off your vendors. The list of business requirements for a project like this is extremely long, even for a pilot program in a single city. 4-5 years is not feasible, and the only conclusion I can draw from this is that Amazon's marketing team is incredibly clever. | ||
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Mysticesper
United States1183 Posts
These things will have cameras, GPS (probably multiple redundant systems), and other things... stealing them is pretty much painting a target on yourself. | ||
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NTTemplar
609 Posts
On December 03 2013 04:44 TheFish7 wrote: Let's assume that range is not an issue, and that Amazon has a distribution warehouse in the middle of central park and every major city. You still have all of the engineering feats that would need to take place to program these drones to not only automatically navigate themselves to an address, but also avoid other drones and the occasional skyscraper along the way. Assuming that can be done through some clever AI, these drones still need to run on some type of energy source, which would need to be only marginally more expensive than current methods despite the immense diseconomies of scale involved in moving from truckloads to one 5 pound package at a time. These drones will need to be maintained, which will require technicians to be trained in the how. Guys who were stealing packages have now suddenly moved up to stealing drones. Amazon has special agreements with the USPS to deliver packages, if you're taking business from that now you're pissing off your vendors. The list of business requirements for a project like this is extremely long, even for a pilot program in a single city. 4-5 years is not feasible, and the only conclusion I can draw from this is that Amazon's marketing team is incredibly clever. Navigating and avoiding things including thieves is just a matter of time programming, they alleready have the know how for all of that. Also maintainance can pretty much be done on thousands by a single person so this won't prove a challenge. Not knowing enough about making and coding drones I can't say if 4-5 years is feasible, I can only say my current understanding of it says that it is. Only concern you have that I am not sure about other than the time is how effecient they are compared to the current methods, I can only assume they are an improvement based on their choice to go this route. | ||
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Too_MuchZerg
Finland2818 Posts
On December 03 2013 04:44 TheFish7 wrote: Let's assume that range is not an issue, and that Amazon has a distribution warehouse in the middle of central park and every major city. You still have all of the engineering feats that would need to take place to program these drones to not only automatically navigate themselves to an address, but also avoid other drones and the occasional skyscraper along the way. Assuming that can be done through some clever AI, these drones still need to run on some type of energy source, which would need to be only marginally more expensive than current methods despite the immense diseconomies of scale involved in moving from truckloads to one 5 pound package at a time. These drones will need to be maintained, which will require technicians to be trained in the how. Guys who were stealing packages have now suddenly moved up to stealing drones. Amazon has special agreements with the USPS to deliver packages, if you're taking business from that now you're pissing off your vendors. The list of business requirements for a project like this is extremely long, even for a pilot program in a single city. 4-5 years is not feasible, and the only conclusion I can draw from this is that Amazon's marketing team is incredibly clever. It seems these drones are for quick delivery only (30 mins) at least I get that kind of idea when watching that clip. I think some people are more than happy to get stuff very quickly and pay extra dollars for it. | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
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Yurie
12182 Posts
Second problem, seeing a difference between these and assassination/prank ones in the middle of city airspace. | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
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ElMeanYo
United States1032 Posts
Is someone remotely piloting them or are they automatic? So many questions. | ||
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canikizu
4860 Posts
2. Take out phone 3. Go to Amazon 4. Buy a gun and get it delivered by drone. 5. Continue running for 30 minutes. 6. Gun got delivered. 7. Profit. | ||
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GeneralStan
United States4789 Posts
On December 02 2013 14:09 OuchyDathurts wrote: Yup. They really milk their drivers, especially in holiday season. They deliver so much stuff its insane and your shift isn't over till you've delivered everything. They have an expected time average so they figure you should be able to knock out all your stops in 9 hours but sometimes that doesn't happen through no fault of the driver. They might send another driver who already finished his load to grab some stuff from you and help you finish up. But they track everything so if you're slacking off and running over time your ass is toast. They even have a "wall of shame" where they'll post the GPS route a driver took from stop A to stop B if it's a completely retarded route, like why did you drive around the block when you could have taken a U turn here and saved 30 seconds? Though its generally just for busting someone's balls about being an idiot, efficiency is everything. Granted if one driver has had the same route a while he's got it nailed down pretty good, knows where to leave stuff, knows who will sign for things, knows a certain client isn't even at his office on fridays so he can skip that one, etc. But they know how to run their drivers ragged and squeeze the maximum out of them. Also some drivers that have a regular route will give their client's their cellphone number. If I deliver to your building everyday at 9AM and you're not there till 10AM every day you give me a call, I'll tell you to meet me at the McDonald's parking lot since I'll be passing through there in 5 minutes as part of my route and I'll just give you your packages there and you can throw them in your car. Very interesting. It sounds like you have quite a bit of personal experience | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
On December 03 2013 06:27 canikizu wrote: 1. Being chased by gangster. 2. Take out phone 3. Go to Amazon 4. Buy a gun and get it delivered by drone. 5. Continue running for 30 minutes. 6. Gun got delivered. 7. Profit. Holy shit, you just broke life. I've never heard a better plan ever. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On December 03 2013 06:18 ElMeanYo wrote: I wonder how these things will dodge power lines, trees, other aircraft, etc. How can you be sure they won't land on the customer's head once they get there? Is someone remotely piloting them or are they automatic? So many questions. Trees and power lines can be dodged with sufficiant altitude when your position isn't where you start or where you land I guess? Same can be said for bridges and stuff like that. Skycrapers could possibly be made into a map on whatever coordinates those things but as long as you fly over streets that shouldn't even be required. Avoiding other aircraft shouldn't be that probelmatic either. If you're talking about planes, they're not going to be flying that high. If you're talking about other amazon-drones it shouldn't be a problem to have some kind flight surveillance for those things alone, based on their GPS data I guess? Wouldn't be suprised if that'd be a necessity if you want to make something like that. Where to land is a bit tricky I guess but having to register a GPS-spot where that stuff can land (as in, nothing like a tree is in the way if said drone is right above the spot and just lowers it's altitude) could be possible but probably a bit techy for most of their customers?  | ||
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NTTemplar
609 Posts
On December 03 2013 06:18 ElMeanYo wrote: I wonder how these things will dodge power lines, trees, other aircraft, etc. How can you be sure they won't land on the customer's head once they get there? Is someone remotely piloting them or are they automatic? So many questions. they will be automatic, look up some videos of what drones can do and you will see dodging power lines, trees other aircrafts and customers will not be a problem. A good video was posted in this very thread even. | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
Duck hunt with amazon drones. I am entertained. | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On December 03 2013 06:29 GeneralStan wrote: Very interesting. It sounds like you have quite a bit of personal experience He probably does. I remember having a case study on UPS way back in business school. They had some examples of the way they engineer the efficiency out of their drivers but nothing this detailed. The drivers put up with it because they are paid well. | ||
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On_Slaught
United States12190 Posts
On December 03 2013 04:13 andrewlt wrote: A 10-mile radius covers 314 sq miles. New York - 302.6 sq miles Los Angeles - 469 sq miles London - 607 sq miles Tokyo - 845 sq miles They don't need to cover people living in the middle of nowhere. Frankly it's MORE useful for people living in the middle of nowhere. There is almost no additional cost just driving them around in major cities since there is somebody you need to deliver to on every street corner anyways. The real use and power of this technology is NOT getting it to the guy living downtown, but the guy living in the middle of nowhere. Why have a truck go 500 miles out of the way when a drone can do that in a fraction of the time? Once the drone technology gets better that will be the prime use (that is until drones do everything). | ||
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cekkmt
United States352 Posts
On the contrary I think many people here care if a random gunshot goes off in their neighborhood. | ||
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TheRabidDeer
United States3806 Posts
On December 03 2013 04:44 TheFish7 wrote: Let's assume that range is not an issue, and that Amazon has a distribution warehouse in the middle of central park and every major city. You still have all of the engineering feats that would need to take place to program these drones to not only automatically navigate themselves to an address, but also avoid other drones and the occasional skyscraper along the way. Assuming that can be done through some clever AI, these drones still need to run on some type of energy source, which would need to be only marginally more expensive than current methods despite the immense diseconomies of scale involved in moving from truckloads to one 5 pound package at a time. These drones will need to be maintained, which will require technicians to be trained in the how. Guys who were stealing packages have now suddenly moved up to stealing drones. Amazon has special agreements with the USPS to deliver packages, if you're taking business from that now you're pissing off your vendors. The list of business requirements for a project like this is extremely long, even for a pilot program in a single city. 4-5 years is not feasible, and the only conclusion I can draw from this is that Amazon's marketing team is incredibly clever. The engineering behind navigation isn't that hard. Google has had cars driving while surrounded with unpredictable moving objects for a long time now.... a static building is easy. I am more curious about how it handles with weather and winds | ||
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