EPTOn May 28 2019 07:40 Zaros wrote:
I apologise for my lack of paying attention lately, but where do these numbers come from? Did you guys have a new vote when I was looking away?
UK Politics Mega-thread - Page 531
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Excludos
Norway7954 Posts
I apologise for my lack of paying attention lately, but where do these numbers come from? Did you guys have a new vote when I was looking away? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17852 Posts
On May 28 2019 19:36 Wombat_NI wrote: That’s wishful thinking IMO, it presupposes that Brexit will actually deliver any of the things that caused those people to fe (rightly) dissatisfied in the first place. Labour were on an upward curve before Brexit dominated all politics, they had some popular policies and if it comes down to it again anytime soon I think many of those will be popular again. You can’t keep all of the benefits of global capitalism in its current form and have none of the downsides, politicians don’t have the balls to outright say this but it is the case. Want cheap consumer goods from all over the world, but you want manufacturing jobs that can’t produce them cheaply enough, pick one. I mean that’s super simplistic but, you get my point. Lack of a proper decentralisation strategy that would push jobs out of London and into post-industrial heartlands is a massive failure of all involved and is a British political failure not a European one. Life would be better for all concerned if this were the case IMO, in all sorts of areas. Urbanization is also a product of the times: agriculture is no longer done with 100s of people. It's done with a few people and lots of machines. So moving from an agrarian economy to an industrial economy causes the first wave of urbanization. The second wave is that all these (rich) cities now have a need for all kinds of services, which create a viable economic drive of their own, and the service economy causes a second wave of urbanization. Internet-based services *could* reverse the trend, but need a good internet connection to the countryside for that to happen. Something that is generally not the case anywhere. Not to mention, you still need the datacenter, which needs an even better internet uplink, as well as LOTS of electricity, which is generally only available near big cities. Programs to reverse urbanization exist, but are far from easy to implement. Not only because it's difficult to create the economic conditions where it makes sense for businesses to move away from the city (even with London being exorbitantly expensive, it's still worth the businesses' money to be there), but because the people who have moved to the city may complain about traffic/prices/crowd, but also like a lot of the services that only a city can offer: ample choice of entertainment, and fine dining. Easy/fast access to education and health services. And yes, that comes at the cost of paying 1000 pounds for a crummy little apartment, instead of living in a big house in the countryside for the same price. But then you have the choice between a pub meal and the other pub meal when you want to go out for dinner. Also, you can't find chirimoyas (or you name whatever exotic ingredient you enjoy) at the local market. To have that, you have to drive into the city. And that's kinda the problem in a nutshell: people want the benefits of country living with the services that the scale of a city can provide. It's just as impossible as having cheap goods and well-paying manufacturing jobs. | ||
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Slydie
1899 Posts
On May 28 2019 19:58 Excludos wrote: I apologise for my lack of paying attention lately, but where do these numbers come from? Did you guys have a new vote when I was looking away? Complain against manipulated figures: post manipulated figures. Nothing to see here. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland23854 Posts
Although your points are all valid and interesting for the record. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9346 Posts
Maybe those American extremists on the right will realize that their funding for this guy is wasted. They can't even bring him over there since he got arrested for trying to enter the US using a false passport. On a European election night when the Brexit party dominated across the UK, perhaps the most eye-catching story in North West England was the humiliating drubbing suffered by the anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson. Having claimed for weeks to be on the crest of an international movement – one that elected Donald Trump in the US – the man whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon had expected to “walk into Brussels like Connor McGregor” upon his election. In the end, Robinson won only 2.2% of the vote – losing his £5,000 deposit – and sneaked out of the election count in central Manchester barely an hour after he had arrived. He tried to put a brave face on it, claiming the establishment had “arranged and organised” for him to be banned from social media to scupper his election bid, but it was a resounding defeat for the founder of the English Defence League. | ||
KwarK
United States41991 Posts
On May 28 2019 19:50 Razyda wrote: So they vote BoJo... Sorry couldnt stop myself  I think you put to much trust in people, as for myself I wouldnt be surprised if random animal from youtube videos got a seat, because somebody put it on as a candidate. I would support that animal at this point. Foxy McFoxface for appointment to the Lords and then government. | ||
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Longshank
1648 Posts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_4hL2Xw5qU | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On May 28 2019 20:13 Slydie wrote: Complain against manipulated figures: post manipulated figures. Nothing to see here. It's even funnier if you read the twitter thread. Here's his argument. "Yeah, conservatives weren't all in favour of leave - i'll still count them as leave so it's easier. Labour weren't all in favour of remain - so i'll leave them out. They were split 50/50 i recon, so it wouldn't matter". I mean.. Right then. Sure, it's not 100% correct to take conservative 100% leave and labour 100% remain, but to argue that labour is 50/50 while counting conservative 100% leave is just retarded. If you count conservative 100% leave, labour is 100% remain. If you can't be arsed to do the math, leave both out. But of course, then the numbers don't look as fine anymore, do they. Since that was a big point of Nettles, 30% (that's the highest estimate) of Labour voted leave. In fact, Ashcroft, the pollster that Nettles argued with, put them at 25%. But lets be even more generous, we go for the full maximum, even ignoring margin of error which is 4%, that's 34%. Hell, make it 35%. And while we're at it, we (wrongly) count all conservative for Leave too. Lee Morgans "math": Leave 7.595.145 Remain 7.115.033 Now adding Labour, since he was too "lazy" (you'll see why). Leave 8.416.684 Remain 8.540.748 Let me briefly reiterate. This is the already blatantly manipulated number by Lee Morgan (100% conservatives leave), plus 35% of Labour votes on top (exact numbers are 1.525.715, or 65%, Remain - 821539, or 35%, for leave - out of a total of 2347255 labour votes). These 35% weren't polled anywhere either. It's higher than it was ever polled (which ranges from 24%-34%). The widely respected British Election Study (BES) conducted a face-to-face survey of 2,194 people across the country. Its central estimate for the 2017 election was that 30% of Labour voters had voted Leave in the referendum. As this figure is based on a survey, there is a margin of error involved. In this case it is four percentage points, so the survey estimate is actually between 26% and 34% The BES figure is somewhat higher than the estimate from Ipsos-Mori, which put it at 24% Lord Ashcroft Polls conducted a poll on election night in 2017 in which 25% of those who said they had voted Leave in 2016, said they had voted Labour. The latest estimate from Comres is that 26% of those who voted Labour in 2017 voted Leave in 2016. And YouGov reckons that 29% of those who voted Labour in 2017 and voted in the EU Referendum, voted Leave. At the very best this result can be seen as "okay we got no idea, we indeed need some form of confirmation either way", as a Brexiter. To argue that Brexit "won" or remain "lost" is only possible if you literally ignore 15% or whatever of the entire vote for convenience. Like Lee Morgan. | ||
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KwarK
United States41991 Posts
In a general election where UKIP get nothing then it may make sense to conclude that a bunch of UKIP voters voted Conservative. But in an EU election where Brexit (UKIP) were on the ballot and did really well it would be very foolish to assume that the Conservative electorate would be full of Brexit supporters. Quite the opposite, the only rational assumption would be that the remaining Conservative vote is the half of the party that is pro EU. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On May 28 2019 18:59 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Personally i would have thought socialists oppose the harsh austerity imposed by the EU on nations like Greece. For working class people doesn’t the EU free movement of people increase the supply of lower skilled workers thus depressing wages and job opportunities for indigenous working class Brits? I mean its great for the wealthy in London who can get maids, gardeners and plumbers dirt cheap but what is socialist about that? Why did Sunderland vote leave 60/40 in 16 and for the brexit party 39.8% in the recent eu elections with the labour vote crashing by half from 40% to 20%? Is it cos they fick? Thats the feeling in the London bubble. Support a 2nd referendum and Labour will be destroyed in working class areas outside London.They’re finished. The EU also brings massive economic subsidies that keep entire sections of the UK (many of them predominantly working class) afloat. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html Also yes, many of them are thick. Many people voted to leave without the faintest idea of what the EU actually did for their areas, despite a ton of information being put front and centre and available for them to view. The Remain campaign was shit, but after a certain point there's simply no excuse for not getting at least slightly educated about an issue. I'm bored of stupid people whining about 'the elites' when 'the elites' are just people who paid the slightest attention in school and learned how to think. And can we dispense with the idea that this was pushed by anyone other than the elites? There wasn't a single working class voice involved at any point in the leave campaign. Boris, Gove, Farage, every one of them monied elites. The fact that some people in the working class think that these people are 'one of them' is laughable. They all view the working classes with utter contempt. And no, Nettles, Labour is neither finished, nor will it be destroyed in working class areas outside London. Labour is getting destroyed right now because it won't support that despite the Labour membership demanding it. Not to mention, any sane englishman should want a second referendum once we have a clear option on the table. It's fact that very few people voted for the deal that's on the table right now. A huge number of people voted based on the idea that we could essentially just leave the EU without any negative consequences and get everything we want... because that's exactly what the leave campaign said would happen. At this point we know that's not the case. You tell most Labour voters that among the Conservatives brilliant ideas to help stimulate the post-Brexit economy is deregulate the NHS and open it to foreign AMERICAN investment, and you'll start seeing some very different opinions. You're being your typically clueless self and seeing the people who voted for Brexit as a single mass instead of a weird mish-match of groups from across the economic spectrum who come to the same conclusion from completely different directions and for completely different reasons while hoping for a completely different outcome. The working classes are fucked. Things are going to get measurably worse for them post-Brexit. There's no debate on that score anymore. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland23854 Posts
On May 29 2019 09:52 iamthedave wrote: The EU also brings massive economic subsidies that keep entire sections of the UK (many of them predominantly working class) afloat. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html Also yes, many of them are thick. Many people voted to leave without the faintest idea of what the EU actually did for their areas, despite a ton of information being put front and centre and available for them to view. The Remain campaign was shit, but after a certain point there's simply no excuse for not getting at least slightly educated about an issue. I'm bored of stupid people whining about 'the elites' when 'the elites' are just people who paid the slightest attention in school and learned how to think. And can we dispense with the idea that this was pushed by anyone other than the elites? There wasn't a single working class voice involved at any point in the leave campaign. Boris, Gove, Farage, every one of them monied elites. The fact that some people in the working class think that these people are 'one of them' is laughable. They all view the working classes with utter contempt. And no, Nettles, Labour is neither finished, nor will it be destroyed in working class areas outside London. Labour is getting destroyed right now because it won't support that despite the Labour membership demanding it. I’m personally sickened by your elite-esque elitism, just because people appear completely uninformed every time they discuss an issue doesn’t mean they’re uninformed. Personally I’m glad a bunch of such folks voted, though many may have been relatively uninformed going in, this was swiftly remedied in the campaign by the promises made by those proposing to leave, all of them realistic and achievable, absolutely | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On May 29 2019 10:07 Wombat_NI wrote: I’m personally sickened by your elite-esque elitism, just because people appear completely uninformed every time they discuss an issue doesn’t mean they’re uninformed. Personally I’m glad a bunch of such folks voted, though many may have been relatively uninformed going in, this was swiftly remedied in the campaign by the promises made by those proposing to leave, all of them realistic and achievable, absolutely I'm still | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On May 28 2019 21:33 Jockmcplop wrote: There's always a little bit of positive news even on really bad days LOL Maybe those American extremists on the right will realize that their funding for this guy is wasted. They can't even bring him over there since he got arrested for trying to enter the US using a false passport. Good riddance to him. It's really a win-win in my eyes. My congratulations to all you who registered a protest vote against the conservatives for their management of EU membership after the EU referendum result. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland23854 Posts
On May 29 2019 10:15 iamthedave wrote: I'm still I suppose if nothing else it does at least show Gove to have some kind of political savvy in reading the political winds, so he’s at least got something over the woman he wants to replace. If Brexit does bring in the kind of negatives that some are forecasting, even close to those, I see the brunt of that falling out the people who voted for it. If such a thing does occur that’ll be rather interesting to see how it shifts the political landscape | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On May 29 2019 10:26 Wombat_NI wrote: I suppose if nothing else it does at least show Gove to have some kind of political savvy in reading the political winds, so he’s at least got something over the woman he wants to replace. If Brexit does bring in the kind of negatives that some are forecasting, even close to those, I see the brunt of that falling out the people who voted for it. If such a thing does occur that’ll be rather interesting to see how it shifts the political landscape Going back to serious talk... yes, we're in an interesting position. Change is in the air. But as people keep pointing out, it's very dangerous to make too many guesses based on obvious protest voting. The Tories are taking an absolute pounding right now, but how much of that is because of a focus on this one divisive issue that the party can't agree with itself about? Until some semblance of normality returns we aren't going to know if all of this is 'the Tories are shit, get rid of them' or 'the Tories are shit at this one thing, get rid of them for now'. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2050 Latest Poll and Map, would be a crazy result but if Labour and the Lib dems are splitting their vote roughly 50:50 the Conservatives or the Brexit Party (depending on if brexit is delivered by the time of the election or not) could sweep a landslide majority by just getting into the low to mid 30s. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11338 Posts
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On May 31 2019 07:12 Zaros wrote: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786 https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2050 Latest Poll and Map, would be a crazy result but if Labour and the Lib dems are splitting their vote roughly 50:50 the Conservatives or the Brexit Party (depending on if brexit is delivered by the time of the election or not) could sweep a landslide majority by just getting into the low to mid 30s. Next to zero chance of that happening. Remember the Brexit Party doesn't even have policies yet. Nobody's voting Farage into office without him giving some indication of what he's going to do in power. Conservatives could landslide it under those circumstances, though. If it comes to actual PM the Tories are going to default to the Tories rather than a policy-less Brexit Party. And I'm relatively confident that any policies Farage comes up with will be shit because he's not a very good politician. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13750 Posts
On May 28 2019 23:36 KwarK wrote: I would support that animal at this point. Foxy McFoxface for appointment to the Lords and then government. A town in Minnesota elected a dog as their mayor for a few terms after having a string of corrupt ones. It ironically forced the city council to compromise and work together to get anything done as the tie-breaking vote was incapable of letting them out of that. People were okay with it enough to keep voting for him. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4315 Posts
"It gives a stepping stone for the far right and that’s very worrying. We had that politics in this area for a long time, with the BNP and the National Front. I wouldn’t want it to be inflicted on the rest of society." (Times Magazine) Yet the Equality and Human Rights Commission is investigating the Labour party for Anti-Semitism.Labour joins the BNP as the only political parties to be investigated by the Equality and Human Rights Commission.So don't mention the BNP when you have that in common with them and maybe get rid of the intolerant bigots in your own party before you start claiming others are the bigots?.. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jun/02/labour-antisemitism-probe-ehrc-evidence-from-100-witnesses Mason said that antisemitism within the party had shown no signs of reducing since the investigation was launched: “It’s ongoing. The Labour party has just emerged from the pre-election period and, for that period, constituency Labour parties aren’t allowed to hold meetings, but now that they can again, we’ve got constituencies debating and rejecting the EHRC, calling it all a smear, diminishing the experience of Jewish members. “Nothing has changed. We continue to see the same behaviour that we have seen for a very long time and no action taken to tackle it.” | ||
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