EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 107
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:02 SolaR- wrote: I am ignorant on modern politics in the UK. What will happen if the UK leaves the EU? I would assume serious financial reprecussions? Can anyone enlighten me? Possibly. Kinda hard to tell. It kinda depends on how spiteful countries react, considering that the UK has to pretty much get trade deals from scratch. Without the economic powerhouse of the EU as leverage. Could go either way, my bet is that there will be a bad awakening soon for brexiteers. So if Leave wins Scotland will vote for Independence in which case Cameron might have a scenario of being the only Prime Minister which is losing not only Europe but Scotland as well. IIRC that vote for Independence is not certain, but very likely. But i don't think that's something you could put on Camerons shoulders. He might be an idiot, but he'd be just a scapegoat for the retardism of the entire empire. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So if Leave wins Scotland will vote for Independence in which case Cameron might have a scenario of being the only Prime Minister which is losing not only Europe but Scotland as well. Scotland won't get another referendum le alone leave the uk, PM Boris or whoever can just deny a referendum forever, Scotland doesn't have the power to call one itself and most Scottish people do not want another even with brexit | ||
KwarK
United States44201 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So if Leave wins Scotland will vote for Independence in which case Cameron might have a scenario of being the only Prime Minister which is losing not only Europe but Scotland as well. They'll certainly bring it up again. But Scottish independence referendums are held at the pleasure of Westminster. We will see. I'm not convinced a leave vote will even result in leaving though. It'll be a strong bargaining tool and might result in the creation of two tier membership of the EU but the people are expressing their opinion, not enacting policy. What to do about that opinion remains entirely in the hands of Westminster. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Espers
United Kingdom606 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:01 Wegandi wrote: So let me get this right: The people who are idiots, are supposed to be bright enough to elect the right people who do have the knowledge to make the "right" decisions, but the people aren't smart enough to actually vote on issues as large as political unions? Did you take a moment to spot the dichotomy there? Dumb people are supposed to be smart enough to vote in the right Technocrats. Why not just skip the people voting part altogether, or do you need some pretense of legitimacy so you feign support for democracy? I might want to add that I'm no fan of democracy, and tend to share the same view that the common person if given all the power will quickly devolve into a nasty state of affairs, but to move from that to well, they should be ruled by wise omnipresent technocrats who know what is best for all veers way off the farm imho. They're supposed to vote the technocrats who promise them what they want, that's a long way off voting on an EU referendum where most people haven't the slightest clue about the political, legal and economic implications. Not to mention the information that's been provided in a relatively short span of time hasn't been of the highest quality. The dangerous people in this circumstance are those who are extremely ignorant yet extremely confident, see any Britain First rally for examples of those kinds of uninformed idiots who are the most convinced that they've got the "right" answer. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:08 Zaros wrote: Scotland won't get another referendum le alone leave the uk, PM Boris or whoever can just deny a referendum forever, Scotland doesn't have the power to call one itself and most Scottish people do not want another even with brexit Yeah, holding a country that desires to decide for itself at gunpoint or hostage sounds like a good plan to keep the UK united. Oh, btw, most scottish people actually DO want to decide for themselves. That's why they voted SNP. | ||
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DeepElemBlues
United States5079 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So if Leave wins Scotland will vote for Independence in which case Cameron might have a scenario of being the only Prime Minister which is losing not only Europe but Scotland as well. i highly doubt that england will be giving scotland another shot at an independence referendum any time soon england is feeling its oats once more, hasnt happened in a while but it sure is now scotland's only route back to the EU may be to simply declare independence and dare england to do something about it On June 24 2016 12:10 KwarK wrote: They'll certainly bring it up again. But Scottish independence referendums are held at the pleasure of Westminster. We will see. I'm not convinced a leave vote will even result in leaving though. It'll be a strong bargaining tool and might result in the creation of two tier membership of the EU but the people are expressing their opinion, not enacting policy. What to do about that opinion remains entirely in the hands of Westminster. trying to ignore public opinion and negotiate a half-in half-out status for the UK in regards to the EU would be politically disastrous for whoever tried to make it happen, cameron or whoever. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:15 m4ini wrote: Yeah, holding a country that desires to decide for itself at gunpoint or hostage sounds like a good plan to keep the UK united. Oh, btw, most scottish people actually DO want to decide for themselves. That's why they voted SNP. SNP lost ground at the last election and polls have shown 55% do not want another referendum if the uk leaves the eu. | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:12 Espers wrote: They're supposed to vote the technocrats who promise them what they want, that's a long way off voting on an EU referendum where most people haven't the slightest clue about the political, legal and economic implications. Not to mention the information that's been provided in a relatively short span of time hasn't been of the highest quality. The dangerous people in this circumstance are those who are extremely ignorant yet extremely confident, see any Britain First rally for examples of those kinds of uninformed idiots who are the most convinced that they've got the "right" answer. There's the gib. The vote primarily isn't about economic benefits, it's about self-determination. I can empathize with their viewpoint. I'm sure the Commissars will be in a tiff though. lmao. (In the same vein I wish that Florida would give Northern Florida the option to leave or Southern Florida, or Florida from DC, and everything in between) People should have a say who they want to be politically united with, not Technocrats/Government officials. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:19 Zaros wrote: SNP lost ground at the last election and polls have shown 55% do not want another referendum if the uk leaves the eu. Nice misrepresentation. Now, in actual facts, it's 45% wanting another referendum. That's counted WITHOUT undecided people, as clearly was stated too. And in even funnier facts, that was counted before the current referendum was called for. None of the polls tracked by ScotCen Social Research since the referendum show backing for independence below 45 per cent when ‘don’t knows’ are excluded. Further: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/nicola-sturgeon-snp-will-discuss-using-euro-if-scotland-independ/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/01/nicola-sturgeon-second-indy-ref-likely-while-im-first-minister/ | ||
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KwarK
United States44201 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:15 DeepElemBlues wrote: i highly doubt that england will be giving scotland another shot at an independence referendum any time soon england is feeling its oats once more, hasnt happened in a while but it sure is now scotland's only route back to the EU may be to simply declare independence and dare england to do something about it trying to ignore public opinion again and negotiate a half-in half-out status for the UK in regards to the EU would be politically disastrous for whoever tried to make it happen, cameron or whoever. In one post you argued that a clear Scottish voting bloc stating they want to stay in the EU will be ignored and that the British voting bloc (including the Scottish one) voting to leave cannot be ignored. Care to explain that? As for the half in half out being political suicide, I think people quite like being able to holiday in Spain and buy and sell goods all across Europe. Even the leave camp likes the single market, what they don't like is the loss of sovereignty to the Federalist project. They don't want to see a United States of Europe, they just want goods to move freely. This is a clash between the political project of Europe and the economic project of Europe and I would be surprised if the UK is the only country not fully supporting the political side of the project. The leave vote isn't necessarily a "burn it all down" vote, it is a vote for change but that doesn't mean that everything must change. And you must remember that the leave parties, the BNP and UKIP, are completely powerless in Westminster. They hold seats in the European Parliament only because that uses a form of PR, in a FPTP system they have no power at all. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Even in the best case,england not leaving in the end,it would be a huge delay. Then in November the usa will get a weak president,the least bad of two bad choices. Things are not looking that bright,the instability in the world will only grow. Renegotiating the eu ? That will take years, And the whole point of the eu is to take powers away from national governments and come with 1 central policy, Not to give it back to national governments and let every country have their own policy again. | ||
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killa_robot
Canada1884 Posts
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rezoacken
Canada2719 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:28 killa_robot wrote: So if the UK does leave the EU (looking likely at this point), what are the odds that this leads to the dismantling of the EU entirely? Overnight no chance but if anti europe movements get elected in France or in Germany then there is a good chance. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:28 killa_robot wrote: So if the UK does leave the EU (looking likely at this point), what are the odds that this leads to the dismantling of the EU entirely? Watch the swedes Danes and Dutch | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
No country profits more from the eu then the Netherlands. The danes they can,they not part of the euro zone. Similar situation as England. | ||
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Espers
United Kingdom606 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:32 Espers wrote: shit's over, england more likely to win the euros than stay in the eu Yeah.. That's not gonna happen. I'd love to see them lose against Wales though, somehow. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On June 24 2016 12:28 killa_robot wrote: So if the UK does leave the EU (looking likely at this point), what are the odds that this leads to the dismantling of the EU entirely? Eight other countries want their own referendum on exit from the EU. Each of them have a reasonable chance of voting to leave. Difficult days for the Europe project are definitely coming. | ||
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