EPTOn February 14 2021 20:02 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
How else can you explain Dogecoin becoming the 7th highest market cap crypto, when it was #45 two weeks prior? Dogecoin was created in 3 hours as a joke.
What I said was it's hard to know which cryptos will fail and which will succeed and that governments could attempt to ban them.I agree there is a reshuffling of the monetary system but you think the central banks will just allow these unregulated decentralised cryptos to just take over while they lose control?
Now if you look back over the past 3 weeks the governments of both India and Nigeria have announced they want to ban/crack down on cryptos.Thats over 1.5 billion people. https://www.coindesk.com/india-and-nigerias-crypto-crackdowns-continue-old-trends
I've already posted links showing Treas sec Yellen wants to regulate the crypto market more in the US.
Invest, but don't pretend there is no risk.
How else can you explain Dogecoin becoming the 7th highest market cap crypto, when it was #45 two weeks prior? Dogecoin was created in 3 hours as a joke.
What I said was it's hard to know which cryptos will fail and which will succeed and that governments could attempt to ban them.I agree there is a reshuffling of the monetary system but you think the central banks will just allow these unregulated decentralised cryptos to just take over while they lose control?
Now if you look back over the past 3 weeks the governments of both India and Nigeria have announced they want to ban/crack down on cryptos.Thats over 1.5 billion people. https://www.coindesk.com/india-and-nigerias-crypto-crackdowns-continue-old-trends
I've already posted links showing Treas sec Yellen wants to regulate the crypto market more in the US.
Invest, but don't pretend there is no risk.
- For the rest, yes Dogecoin is a joke. And yes it zoomed 10x. But it was also the subject of a WSB like pump and dump with millions participating, and is incredibly memeable. It was on billboards all over the country and being tweeted out by Musk, Snoop Dog, and many famous celebrities. Ape together strong.
- Its certainly hard to know which crypto will fail and which will succeed. Multiple ones surely will in various categories. Right now BTC is the overwhelming winner in the class "SoV", the most valuable and important characteristic of money. As such, it occupies the largest market share and is a $1T network. BTC has massive network effect going for it, as well as first mover advantages. Given its size, and the game theoretic incentives around it, BTC is far more likely to be Facebook than to be MySpace. But, its definitely possible that a superior technology might one day knock BTC of its perch. Might.
- Other cryptos will obviously win in other categories. DeFi has a strong potential niche. Some cool stuff going on with ETH sidechans as well as BNB. They will corner marketshares, but not as much as the SoV category winner by a longshot.
- Regulations attempts were a concern I took seriously up until perhaps the middle of this year, evaporating completely when MicroStrategy got in the game. That window is more or less shut. There are too many massive institutions with too much money to stop BTC/crypto. A few countries will try to regulate, but fail because VPNs are a thing, and you can just trade "P2P". The amount of capital and types of institutions now in the game is enough to be incredibly resilient to any regulation attempts, and to be successful basically the whole world needs to regulate it together. Odds of this happening feel well below 1%.
So no, I dont think the central banks will just sit back and allow it to happen (some will, depending on the country and the amount of institutions with money that talks). They will resist here and there, and fail.
Then there are a few categories of other threats:
- Security issues, 51% attacks, etc. - These are all possible, but generally believed to be low probability events
- Economic Climate: A swift economic recovery with an end to QE and other aspects could really slow BTC growth. This is also a low probability event. All forecasts are for a sluggish recovery, and the pandemic is still raging. There is no reason I'd expect a significant increase in energy usage/total goods and services exchanged this year. This also holds true on a 5-10 year timeframes because of EROEI decline. Probably the only thing that brings the worldwide economic situation out of a long tailspin is the discovery/invention of a new energy with EROEI greater than oil from the early 50s.
