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On February 14 2021 20:02 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:How else can you explain Dogecoin becoming the 7th highest market cap crypto, when it was #45 two weeks prior? Dogecoin was created in 3 hours as a joke. What I said was it's hard to know which cryptos will fail and which will succeed and that governments could attempt to ban them.I agree there is a reshuffling of the monetary system but you think the central banks will just allow these unregulated decentralised cryptos to just take over while they lose control? Now if you look back over the past 3 weeks the governments of both India and Nigeria have announced they want to ban/crack down on cryptos.Thats over 1.5 billion people. https://www.coindesk.com/india-and-nigerias-crypto-crackdowns-continue-old-trendsI've already posted links showing Treas sec Yellen wants to regulate the crypto market more in the US. Invest, but don't pretend there is no risk.
- For the rest, yes Dogecoin is a joke. And yes it zoomed 10x. But it was also the subject of a WSB like pump and dump with millions participating, and is incredibly memeable. It was on billboards all over the country and being tweeted out by Musk, Snoop Dog, and many famous celebrities. Ape together strong.
- Its certainly hard to know which crypto will fail and which will succeed. Multiple ones surely will in various categories. Right now BTC is the overwhelming winner in the class "SoV", the most valuable and important characteristic of money. As such, it occupies the largest market share and is a $1T network. BTC has massive network effect going for it, as well as first mover advantages. Given its size, and the game theoretic incentives around it, BTC is far more likely to be Facebook than to be MySpace. But, its definitely possible that a superior technology might one day knock BTC of its perch. Might.
- Other cryptos will obviously win in other categories. DeFi has a strong potential niche. Some cool stuff going on with ETH sidechans as well as BNB. They will corner marketshares, but not as much as the SoV category winner by a longshot.
- Regulations attempts were a concern I took seriously up until perhaps the middle of this year, evaporating completely when MicroStrategy got in the game. That window is more or less shut. There are too many massive institutions with too much money to stop BTC/crypto. A few countries will try to regulate, but fail because VPNs are a thing, and you can just trade "P2P". The amount of capital and types of institutions now in the game is enough to be incredibly resilient to any regulation attempts, and to be successful basically the whole world needs to regulate it together. Odds of this happening feel well below 1%.
So no, I dont think the central banks will just sit back and allow it to happen (some will, depending on the country and the amount of institutions with money that talks). They will resist here and there, and fail.
Then there are a few categories of other threats:
- Security issues, 51% attacks, etc. - These are all possible, but generally believed to be low probability events
- Economic Climate: A swift economic recovery with an end to QE and other aspects could really slow BTC growth. This is also a low probability event. All forecasts are for a sluggish recovery, and the pandemic is still raging. There is no reason I'd expect a significant increase in energy usage/total goods and services exchanged this year. This also holds true on a 5-10 year timeframes because of EROEI decline. Probably the only thing that brings the worldwide economic situation out of a long tailspin is the discovery/invention of a new energy with EROEI greater than oil from the early 50s.
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I’m so glad I just DCA and pay zero attention to the day to day discussion over crypto and securities
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Pretty ridiculous if the antics of one guy have such a huge effect on something that aspires to be a currency. In my opinion it's completely unfit to be a currency anyway, but this just makes it like a real money online trading game.
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On May 14 2021 22:00 aseq wrote:
Pretty ridiculous if the antics of one guy have such a huge effect on something that aspires to be a currency. In my opinion it's completely unfit to be a currency anyway, but this just makes it like a real money online trading game.
He also stated he is looking into other cryptocurrencies for use as payment that have a far smaller carbon footprint so if you can predict which ones he will use and buy some you could make a good profit.
Also this morning China declared cryptocurrencies cannot be used as a form of payment in China.Likely this is to force more people into using their new digital Yuan that is currently in trial phase.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bitcoin-price-plunges-to-lowest-this-year-after-china-e2-80-98tightens-the-noose-claims-expert/ar-BB1gSVmE?ocid=uxbndlbing
According to a notice published on the People Bank of China's (PBOC) official WeChat account, virtual currencies including Bitcoin can not be used in the Chinese economy as they are not considered "real currencies". It added that financial institutions are not allowed to price products and services using cryptocurrencies.
China effectively banned internal "coin offerings" of cryptocurrencies back in 2017 which forced a lot of traders to exchange overseas.
Last month PBOC announced it was testing "digital yuan" in several regions as a way of monitoring the economy.
Much like the UK's anticipated "Britcoin" the currency is controlled by China's central bank as a new form of electronic money.
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On May 19 2021 12:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2021 22:00 aseq wrote:
Pretty ridiculous if the antics of one guy have such a huge effect on something that aspires to be a currency. In my opinion it's completely unfit to be a currency anyway, but this just makes it like a real money online trading game. He also stated he is looking into other cryptocurrencies for use as payment that have a far smaller carbon footprint so if you can predict which ones he will use and buy some you could make a good profit.
I agree, but you're mentioning it like it's an opportunity, while it's a problem. You care more about which coin is going to go up in market value than any intrinsic value of the coin itself. And all while the technology used by 90% of the coins is the same...and they're all facing the same long-term problems.
This has all turned about people making profit, instead of new technology introducing possibilities. I've turned from BTC enthousiast in 2013 to sceptic now. What we have is a hot mess of kids trying to get rich by gambling and a store-of-no-value that doesn't have any use as a currency whatsoever (and isn't making progress).
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If DOGE manages to remain neutral in energy use and SpaceX is able to launch its' 2022 DOGE satellite it could come back. But BTC might be too faraway to save as it is a massive polluter in terms of mining.
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On May 19 2021 12:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2021 22:00 aseq wrote:
Pretty ridiculous if the antics of one guy have such a huge effect on something that aspires to be a currency. In my opinion it's completely unfit to be a currency anyway, but this just makes it like a real money online trading game. He also stated he is looking into other cryptocurrencies for use as payment that have a far smaller carbon footprint so if you can predict which ones he will use and buy some you could make a good profit. Also this morning China declared cryptocurrencies cannot be used as a form of payment in China.Likely this is to force more people into using their new digital Yuan that is currently in trial phase. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bitcoin-price-plunges-to-lowest-this-year-after-china-e2-80-98tightens-the-noose-claims-expert/ar-BB1gSVmE?ocid=uxbndlbingShow nested quote +
According to a notice published on the People Bank of China's (PBOC) official WeChat account, virtual currencies including Bitcoin can not be used in the Chinese economy as they are not considered "real currencies". It added that financial institutions are not allowed to price products and services using cryptocurrencies.
China effectively banned internal "coin offerings" of cryptocurrencies back in 2017 which forced a lot of traders to exchange overseas.
Last month PBOC announced it was testing "digital yuan" in several regions as a way of monitoring the economy.
Much like the UK's anticipated "Britcoin" the currency is controlled by China's central bank as a new form of electronic money.
Isn't this just old news? Crypto has been illegal for form of payment in China for years now. What has changed?
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On May 19 2021 22:11 aseq wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2021 12:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On May 14 2021 22:00 aseq wrote:
Pretty ridiculous if the antics of one guy have such a huge effect on something that aspires to be a currency. In my opinion it's completely unfit to be a currency anyway, but this just makes it like a real money online trading game. He also stated he is looking into other cryptocurrencies for use as payment that have a far smaller carbon footprint so if you can predict which ones he will use and buy some you could make a good profit. I agree, but you're mentioning it like it's an opportunity, while it's a problem. You care more about which coin is going to go up in market value than any intrinsic value of the coin itself. And all while the technology used by 90% of the coins is the same...and they're all facing the same long-term problems.
Crypto’s are too volatile for use as currency, plus as I said before - I got out about 3 months ago because it was looking too risky for me.As soon as dogecoin went from #50 market cap to top 10 market cap I sold up (BTC and BCH).
Crypto’s currently crashing hard, most down 30% past 24 hours, Bitcoin core down 20% to 35k.Mix of stop losses and panic selling on the China news?
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If you’re not asking yourself about what you think it’s gonna be in at least 2 years don’t buy it and that’s a short time frame. IMO the worst case if there aren’t massive state bans on crypto is that it as a whole category only ends up being used as a vote token for a DeApp/store of value, if you feel even remotely more optimistic than that you should be DCA as much crypto as possible constantly
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This seems to be the lifecycle of crypto. It has had a few of these booms and busts in its life cycle now. I think if you believe in its potential as something more than just a store of value, then stay in the game for the long term.
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Heads up to my fellow American crypto investors.
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China just banned all crypto transactions and mining.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/business/china-cryptocurrency-bitcoin.html
China cracks down on cryptocurrency, banning all transactions.
China intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency on Friday, declaring all financial transactions involving cryptocurrencies illegal and issuing a nationwide ban on cryptocurrency mining, the power-hungry process in which computer networks compete to solve calculations in return for newly created crypto tokens.
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On September 24 2021 22:37 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:China just banned all crypto transactions and mining. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/business/china-cryptocurrency-bitcoin.htmlShow nested quote +China cracks down on cryptocurrency, banning all transactions.
China intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency on Friday, declaring all financial transactions involving cryptocurrencies illegal and issuing a nationwide ban on cryptocurrency mining, the power-hungry process in which computer networks compete to solve calculations in return for newly created crypto tokens.
How is this different from the last four or five times China has banned crypto?
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Before, they banned onshore cryptocurrency exchanges and banks/payment services allowing cryptocurrency transactions.Now, they are banning all transactions.So people cannot send each other any crypto whatsoever.
Mining was banned in some provinces since May at the least, but now banned in all.
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Yeah, but most people buy at the top and suffer losses. Thing is, you never hear about those stories, only about people who become rich. And people who become rich buy in bear markets. Right now the crypto market is in no mans land, there is higher likelihood that it will go down. Not saying it wont go up, im saying the likelihood of that happening is lower. Even if it does go up, not sure if that will be a sustained trend or just one last ditch attempt to lure in more bag holders. And I'd be especially careful of some big news in the coming weeks that might appear to be bullish. I've been in crypto since 2015 and Im seeing the same pattern I saw in 2018. Perhaps Im wrong, but I'd rather be on the safe side and not take any risks at this point.
As far as Bitcoin goes, the story that is decentralized, on the surface its true, but if you take a good look at the distribution of Bitcoins and how many actual mining nodes there are that secure the network, you wouldn't be making that claim. If you're getting your facts from rich people and especially laser eyes, it would be wise to actually verify the information because most of it is factually wrong.
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EPT
