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On April 05 2013 13:05 white_horse wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2013 10:12 heliusx wrote:On April 05 2013 09:58 jinorazi wrote:On April 05 2013 02:26 TheZanthex wrote:On April 04 2013 21:19 sgfightmaster wrote:On April 04 2013 18:09 ConGee wrote:On April 04 2013 18:04 sgfightmaster wrote:On April 04 2013 17:27 GoDannY wrote:On April 04 2013 17:06 sgfightmaster wrote:On April 04 2013 15:06 chimpandfrog wrote:
[quote]
Geopolitics of tin soldiers and horses is very different from geopolitics of spirit bombers, nuclear submarines and laser beams. If you don't see how or why I can explain. I really think your and many other posters ideas on "buffer states" need to be seriously revised. Btw I don't even understand what you wrote in your answer, who's doorstep?.. i'm not sure why anyone would be so confused or think buffer states are irrelevant. basically the balance of power would shift way in favour of USA if they could station troops/bases that close to china. this means they have more leverage in trade discussions, negotiations etc and thats not really what china wants, is it? I really doubt it is a benefit to inhale NK from a military/strategic standpoint tbh. Imagine if Korea reunites somehow, either by force or peaceful, this is not at all like the German reunion. I mean even with a fairly strong industry/infrastructure it took ages to get both parts of Germany to a fairly equal level economy-wise (which btw even today isnt the case really) . Now you have SK which is a modern, high-tech society but a heavily on trade relying economy. NK meanwhile is basicly living in the past for 50 years and way behind in every aspect. Building up this area will be more than a heavy burden that noone can afford, even with all force combined. By that, I dont want to neglect that the reunion would be beneficial from a human standpoint, considering the camps (KZ) in NK, the political prisoners and also the aspect of reuniting the nation itself. i dont know much about germany east or west so that was pretty interesting. all we were discussing is the possibility of china intervening in a war between NK and SK so i pointed out that having NK completely overrun would be strategically bad for china. It still makes less sense for China to support NK and risk pissing off its top trading partner. If NK launches a military offensive and SK and the US intervene, they wouldn't produce any direct military aid to NK. if taiwan ever declared independence from china in an unambiguous, unequivocal manner, expect china to attack no matter how pissed off USA gets. there are certain lines that simply cannot be crossed. how do you know having american troops on the chinese border isn't an uncrossable line? to make such a confident statement that they wouldn't produce direct military aid Earlier in the thread they said that Obama was in talks with the Chinese leader, so maybe something diplomatic can be worked out. In any case, if the lack of a buffer zone is really what worries the Chinese, there's always the option of giving them the North Korean section of the peninsula or having a joint occupation or something of the like. I dunno, just tossing out ideas here. ...what? o.O i dont know about other koreans but i'll go batshit crazy Better than the status quo. Not that it would ever happen but the north would be much better off occupied by China. That is a bullshit outcome south koreans will never accept. Show nested quote +On April 05 2013 12:52 Shival wrote:
If anything will occupy the north it will be the UN, not China nor USA, not even both. Any other entity than the UN will result in catastrophy, within the north and outside of it.
Wouldn't that be nice. Too bad the UN is completely useless because the US and china are just going to ignore it. They have completely different self-interests when it comes to north korea, so they are going to end up in conflict when both sides move in to occupy it.
So if this was an option to peacefully have china occupy until further notice you would rather the status quo? Honestly the west isn't willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers on the peninsula again and SK couldn't do it alone.
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konadora
Singapore66358 Posts
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that is a couple days old I think and i could be mistaken but I think it had something to do about a mistranslation. While it kind of meant that NK authorized a nuclear strike, it didn't quite mean it that way. Hopefully someone else can comment and clear things up better for you.
IF that did just happen now, as in today, then that's fucked and we could be seeing something big happen soon...
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
Yeah thats the same exert from Yesterday morning (Korea time).
Same quotes but just a miss leading title xD
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I will worry more about North Korea authorizing a nuclear strike on the U.S. (or even threatening to do so, etc, etc) when they have a demonstrated capability of getting one here. I think that's still a few years off.
Now, if I was in South Korea, I would be a bit more worried.
I'm hoping this slow building tension is just a more active period of saber rattling from Kim Jong Un to show domestically that he's a bad ass and takes no shit from anywhere. Although I worry, because it seems like that family is getting progressively more crazy each generation.
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What is the reason for China's timidness in the recent development of NK's military movement? They should make it clear that relations will sour if they continue to bear arms, rather than just sit idly and watch as North Korea attempts to destroy the world. It's so unfortunate that years of propaganda have turned the NK citizens to mindless drones, the ones who will suffer are them. Hopefully, once the Kim Jong reign ends, NK will be finally free from the oppression of their own government.
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
Because China are the only trade partner for North Korea and the treaty deal is that (what i have read) China stock them with supplies which North Korea by, for in return China defend North Korea. So they have a defense treaty in place with eachother. No question that China might move to not help them if shit hits the fan, BUT they have to show they are willing to help as well i guess.
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On April 05 2013 13:13 heliusx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2013 13:05 white_horse wrote:On April 05 2013 10:12 heliusx wrote:On April 05 2013 09:58 jinorazi wrote:On April 05 2013 02:26 TheZanthex wrote:On April 04 2013 21:19 sgfightmaster wrote:On April 04 2013 18:09 ConGee wrote:On April 04 2013 18:04 sgfightmaster wrote:On April 04 2013 17:27 GoDannY wrote:On April 04 2013 17:06 sgfightmaster wrote:
[quote]
i'm not sure why anyone would be so confused or think buffer states are irrelevant. basically the balance of power would shift way in favour of USA if they could station troops/bases that close to china. this means they have more leverage in trade discussions, negotiations etc and thats not really what china wants, is it? I really doubt it is a benefit to inhale NK from a military/strategic standpoint tbh. Imagine if Korea reunites somehow, either by force or peaceful, this is not at all like the German reunion. I mean even with a fairly strong industry/infrastructure it took ages to get both parts of Germany to a fairly equal level economy-wise (which btw even today isnt the case really) . Now you have SK which is a modern, high-tech society but a heavily on trade relying economy. NK meanwhile is basicly living in the past for 50 years and way behind in every aspect. Building up this area will be more than a heavy burden that noone can afford, even with all force combined. By that, I dont want to neglect that the reunion would be beneficial from a human standpoint, considering the camps (KZ) in NK, the political prisoners and also the aspect of reuniting the nation itself. i dont know much about germany east or west so that was pretty interesting. all we were discussing is the possibility of china intervening in a war between NK and SK so i pointed out that having NK completely overrun would be strategically bad for china. It still makes less sense for China to support NK and risk pissing off its top trading partner. If NK launches a military offensive and SK and the US intervene, they wouldn't produce any direct military aid to NK. if taiwan ever declared independence from china in an unambiguous, unequivocal manner, expect china to attack no matter how pissed off USA gets. there are certain lines that simply cannot be crossed. how do you know having american troops on the chinese border isn't an uncrossable line? to make such a confident statement that they wouldn't produce direct military aid Earlier in the thread they said that Obama was in talks with the Chinese leader, so maybe something diplomatic can be worked out. In any case, if the lack of a buffer zone is really what worries the Chinese, there's always the option of giving them the North Korean section of the peninsula or having a joint occupation or something of the like. I dunno, just tossing out ideas here. ...what? o.O i dont know about other koreans but i'll go batshit crazy Better than the status quo. Not that it would ever happen but the north would be much better off occupied by China. That is a bullshit outcome south koreans will never accept. On April 05 2013 12:52 Shival wrote:
If anything will occupy the north it will be the UN, not China nor USA, not even both. Any other entity than the UN will result in catastrophy, within the north and outside of it.
Wouldn't that be nice. Too bad the UN is completely useless because the US and china are just going to ignore it. They have completely different self-interests when it comes to north korea, so they are going to end up in conflict when both sides move in to occupy it. So if this was an option to peacefully have china occupy until further notice you would rather the status quo? Honestly the west isn't willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers on the peninsula again and SK couldn't do it alone.
Nationalism, unfortunately, is never rational.
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On April 05 2013 17:33 Novacute wrote:
What is the reason for China's timidness in the recent development of NK's military movement? They should make it clear that relations will sour if they continue to bear arms, rather than just sit idly and watch as North Korea attempts to destroy the world. It's so unfortunate that years of propaganda have turned the NK citizens to mindless drones, the ones who will suffer are them. Hopefully, once the Kim Jong reign ends, NK will be finally free from the oppression of their own government.
North Korea destroying the world? What are you talking about? China knows they won't act and even if they do, they won't leave a scratch. They're smart not to do anything.
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"The U.S. Embassy informs U.S. citizens that despite current political tensions with North Korea there is no specific information to suggest there are imminent threats to U.S. citizens or facilities in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The Embassy has not changed its security posture and we have not recommended that U.S. citizens who reside in, or plan to visit, the Republic of Korea take special security precautions at this time. The U.S. Embassy takes as its highest priority the welfare of American citizens in Korea. Should the security situation change, the Embassy will issue updated information."
Keep things in perspective.
Edit: and this:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3727471.htm
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In the end this will probably have all been for the sake of showing Kim Jong Un as a fearless leader who can stand up to the world. The North Korean media goes on and on about how he is their greatest leader ever, nothing happens and in the eyes of the Korean people Kim Jong Un is left with the aura of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung.
Nothing to see here. We can all go back to sleep
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On April 05 2013 17:29 felisconcolori wrote:
I will worry more about North Korea authorizing a nuclear strike on the U.S. (or even threatening to do so, etc, etc) when they have a demonstrated capability of getting one here. I think that's still a few years off.
Now, if I was in South Korea, I would be a bit more worried.
I'm hoping this slow building tension is just a more active period of saber rattling from Kim Jong Un to show domestically that he's a bad ass and takes no shit from anywhere. Although I worry, because it seems like that family is getting progressively more crazy each generation.
I think this is a potential timebomb for the US. They have to topple the regime before it developes a real nuclear capability to ensure safety of their citizens. The game has changed from the previous incidents because of the nuke card.
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N. Korea loads two medium-range missiles on mobile launchers
North Korea has loaded two intermediate-range missiles onto mobile launchers and hidden them in an unidentified facility near the east coast, Seoul military sources said Friday, triggering speculation that the North is ready for an abrupt missile launch.
Earlier this week, the communist state had moved the "Musudan" medium-range missiles to its east coast, prompting the United States to send its advanced missile defense system to its base on the Pacific Ocean island of Guam.
South Korea has also sent its Aegis destroyers equipped with advanced radar systems to the East and West Seas.
South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials have been closely monitoring the North Korean facility believed to contain the Musudan missiles on the TELs (transporter-erector-launcher). The missile can fly 3,000-4,000 kilometers and is capable of hitting the U.S. base in Guam in the Pacific Ocean.
"Early this week, the North has moved two Musudan missiles on the train and placed them on mobile launchers," a senior military official familiar with the knowledge of the matter said.
The North's concealing the missiles atop the mobile launcher platform is seen as an attempt to launch missiles in a surprise move, the official said, noting it was not clear whether the move is for a test firing or military drills.
The isolated communist nation has not yet conducted a test firing of the Musudan missile, which was first revealed to the international community in October 2010 during a military parade in Pyongyang.
Some experts say that if North would attack or launch the missiles, it would be without a warning. They have hid the missiles underground (dunno) apparently. But more likely it seems that they are either a) showing off the capability/missile "power" or b) preparing for an test of some kind.
Worth mentioning, even if the Wikipedia page says that the missiles have been tested successfully before,
"As of 2010, Western sources had no indication that the missile system had ever been tested, or was operational"
![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/93/BM25_Musudan.jpg)
Musudan Missile.
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Sweden1692 Posts
"TRACY BOWDEN: Is there in any danger that Kim Jong-un has talked the talk and ultimately may have to walk to walk?
ANDREI LANKOV: Why? Is he stupid? Is he suicidal? Is he zealot? Does he believe in any ideology? Does he want to destroy the world in the name of God or whoever? Of course not. He loves his life. He loves his wife. He loves his cars and his toys. He's not going to start a war; he has no chances to win."
I like this Mr Lankov :D
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Sorry, should have put it in a spoiler 
+ Show Spoiler +
User was warned for this post
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Small update, which you can take how ever you want:
Reuters:
Russia in close contact with U.S., China, S.Korea over N.Korea's request to consider evacuating embassy staff: RIA cites Sergei Lavrov
Britain says North Korea has asked if it intends to evacuate its embassy in Pyongyang; says considering next steps
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We can confirm that the British Embassy in Pyongyang received a communication from the North Korean government this morning. It said that the North Korean government would be unable to guarantee the safety of embassies and international organisations in the country in the event of conflict from April 10.
Source
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On April 05 2013 12:44 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
I think people tend to forget that North Korea has a leader that wasn't even supposed to be the leader. This show of "force", if you can call it that, seems to be more a house cleaning method. If North Korea was even dumb enough to do something like even launching a scud than Russia, and China would be forced to take military action not to mention every south east asian country along with Western countries.
i'm living in a south east asian nation. most of us actually have no stake in this. the way i see it, the relevant parties in the korean peninsula are the koreas, japan, china and USA
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On April 05 2013 17:19 Shelke14 wrote:that is a couple days old I think and i could be mistaken but I think it had something to do about a mistranslation. While it kind of meant that NK authorized a nuclear strike, it didn't quite mean it that way. Hopefully someone else can comment and clear things up better for you. IF that did just happen now, as in today, then that's fucked and we could be seeing something big happen soon...
I think that Kim just signed a document saying something along the lines of "If we're going to nuke the US, then this is the plan that we're going to use". So he authorized the plan, not the execution of the plan (if I've understood things correctly). Basically the threat meant "We can now nuke you anytime we want, because we have our plan ready! So there!"
I guess North Korea could later threaten that they are considering authorizing the execution of the plan that has already been authorized.
Got to hand it to the Kim regime, though: I could never have imagined so many threats to make things look like war was just around the corner! I'm actually impressed, although the effect kind of dissipates after the tenth threat or so...
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On April 04 2013 20:33 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2013 20:32 baldgye wrote:On April 04 2013 20:13 Grettin wrote:
N. Korean defector in South crosses western sea border Why would people from the South(or who have escaped to the south) want to go back to the North? Don't they face horrible punishments for defecting in the first place? Thats the key question, maybe he has heard something from the North and doesn't want to be in the south incase of war, or maybe hes completely mad.
What? Why can't you guys just read a bit on North Korea before you go around discussing nonsense.
A huge percentage of the north koreans that get out of NK actually go back. The usual reasons are that they don't like the new life in South Korea etc. Too hard for them to adapt also missing their family.
With such a huge number that goes back to NK after leaving or "fleeing" I doubt there would be any horrible punishments.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://dailyoftheday.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/little-man-syndrome.jpg)
