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On April 17 2017 02:44 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 00:40 bardtown wrote:North Korea nuclear: US 'working with China' on responsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39614428It's such a difficult task. They need to come up with a strategy for disabling all their nuclear facilities, then they need to locate whatever submarines NK has so they can disable them simultaneously. And they probably need to disable everything that has the capability of firing into SK to stop some random retaliation. I think they'll take the easy route and do nothing. Maybe assassination of the North Korean leadership and top generals would be the best answer causing dissarray and power plays that would stop any response before an invasion but pretty sure that is a war crime.
Well it would be the less casualties consequence, so I guess it should not be considered as a war crime? In theory this is the best way to prevent huge conflict.
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On April 17 2017 03:34 cSc.Dav1oN wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 02:44 Zaros wrote:On April 17 2017 00:40 bardtown wrote:North Korea nuclear: US 'working with China' on responsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39614428It's such a difficult task. They need to come up with a strategy for disabling all their nuclear facilities, then they need to locate whatever submarines NK has so they can disable them simultaneously. And they probably need to disable everything that has the capability of firing into SK to stop some random retaliation. I think they'll take the easy route and do nothing. Maybe assassination of the North Korean leadership and top generals would be the best answer causing dissarray and power plays that would stop any response before an invasion but pretty sure that is a war crime. Well it would be the less casualties consequence, so I guess it should not be considered as a war crime? In theory this is the best way to prevent huge conflict.
Yeah, produce a giant power vacuum at the top of a psycho state with a giant army, guns aimed at seoul and some weird murderous secret police state. What could go wrong.
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Problem: NK situation could explode into a larger conflict.
Proposed solutions: nuke them, or start a coup.
Result: everything will work out great.
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On April 17 2017 00:40 bardtown wrote:North Korea nuclear: US 'working with China' on responsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39614428It's such a difficult task. They need to come up with a strategy for disabling all their nuclear facilities, then they need to locate whatever submarines NK has so they can disable them simultaneously. And they probably need to disable everything that has the capability of firing into SK to stop some random retaliation. I think they'll take the easy route and do nothing.
Or they could just negotiate with Kim, instead of threats, pressure, sanctions and isolations... I don't blame him for trying to develop nuclear weapons, if China decides not to support them they are on their own... Using violence will only escalate things and a lot of people will die and not just north koreans...
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On April 17 2017 03:51 raga4ka wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 00:40 bardtown wrote:North Korea nuclear: US 'working with China' on responsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39614428It's such a difficult task. They need to come up with a strategy for disabling all their nuclear facilities, then they need to locate whatever submarines NK has so they can disable them simultaneously. And they probably need to disable everything that has the capability of firing into SK to stop some random retaliation. I think they'll take the easy route and do nothing. Or they could just negotiate with Kim, instead of threats, pressure, sanctions and isolations... I don't blame him for trying to develop nuclear weapons, if China decides not to support them they are on their own... Using violence will only escalate things and a lot of people will die and not just north koreans...
I wonder whether it's harder to reason with people like this or with Kim Jong-un himself.
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On April 17 2017 03:46 LegalLord wrote:
Problem: NK situation could explode into a larger conflict.
Proposed solutions: nuke them, or start a coup.
Result: everything will work out great.
This is incredible.
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On April 17 2017 03:57 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 03:51 raga4ka wrote:On April 17 2017 00:40 bardtown wrote:North Korea nuclear: US 'working with China' on responsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39614428It's such a difficult task. They need to come up with a strategy for disabling all their nuclear facilities, then they need to locate whatever submarines NK has so they can disable them simultaneously. And they probably need to disable everything that has the capability of firing into SK to stop some random retaliation. I think they'll take the easy route and do nothing. Or they could just negotiate with Kim, instead of threats, pressure, sanctions and isolations... I don't blame him for trying to develop nuclear weapons, if China decides not to support them they are on their own... Using violence will only escalate things and a lot of people will die and not just north koreans... I wonder whether it's harder to reason with people like this or with Kim Jong-un himself.
I don't think it is that hard to reason with Kim Jong-Un. You just need to realize what his goals are.
1) Stay alive
2) Keep the regime intact
.....
281) Anything else.
The problem is that the NK situation is fucked up. There is no easy solution that does not involve a lot of people dying, so people keep on hoping that eventually, such a solution will turn up, hopefully in the form of a peaceful collapse of the NK regime.
NK does look very insane from the outside, but i don't think that the people in power are insane. They are probably bad people, but they seem to be rational if you actually understand their situation.
It is the same problem people have when talking about the middle ages. A lot of people seem to be convinced that basically everyone was really stupid and gullible. But realistically, most people made rational decisions based on their situation. NK is similar. Their situation is alien to us, and the net result is that everything looks insane. But most people will be acting rationally within an insane system.
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There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated.
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On April 17 2017 03:39 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 03:34 cSc.Dav1oN wrote:On April 17 2017 02:44 Zaros wrote:On April 17 2017 00:40 bardtown wrote:North Korea nuclear: US 'working with China' on responsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39614428It's such a difficult task. They need to come up with a strategy for disabling all their nuclear facilities, then they need to locate whatever submarines NK has so they can disable them simultaneously. And they probably need to disable everything that has the capability of firing into SK to stop some random retaliation. I think they'll take the easy route and do nothing. Maybe assassination of the North Korean leadership and top generals would be the best answer causing dissarray and power plays that would stop any response before an invasion but pretty sure that is a war crime. Well it would be the less casualties consequence, so I guess it should not be considered as a war crime? In theory this is the best way to prevent huge conflict. Yeah, produce a giant power vacuum at the top of a psycho state with a giant army, guns aimed at seoul and some weird murderous secret police state. What could go wrong.
The point being while they are in this power vacuum you invade the country and destroy/capture all their weapons before the next person can take charge, not leave them to it.
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On April 17 2017 04:11 Deleuze wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 03:46 LegalLord wrote:
Problem: NK situation could explode into a larger conflict.
Proposed solutions: nuke them, or start a coup.
Result: everything will work out great. This is incredible.
It's also misleading. The only way this could turn into a larger conflict is by the US ignoring China's interests. As long China gets to install their own puppet government they won't care if Kim Jong Un is assasinated.
The real danger isn't in how the US deals with North Korea. The danger is if they decide that now North Korea is in their sphere of interest and they get to dictate what happens after.
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On April 17 2017 06:11 hypercube wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 04:11 Deleuze wrote:On April 17 2017 03:46 LegalLord wrote:
Problem: NK situation could explode into a larger conflict.
Proposed solutions: nuke them, or start a coup.
Result: everything will work out great. This is incredible. It's also misleading. The only way this could turn into a larger conflict is by the US ignoring China's interests. As long China gets to install their own puppet government they won't care if Kim Jong Un is assasinated. The real danger isn't in how the US deals with North Korea. The danger is if they decide that now North Korea is in their sphere of interest and they get to dictate what happens after.
Perhaps a deal can be made where China backs an invasion and actively takes part in it to remove the North Korean Government and unite the two countries under a democratic government, but the USA agrees to pull back military bases/forces from the Korean Peninsular after the war is over.
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On April 17 2017 06:18 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 06:11 hypercube wrote:On April 17 2017 04:11 Deleuze wrote:On April 17 2017 03:46 LegalLord wrote:
Problem: NK situation could explode into a larger conflict.
Proposed solutions: nuke them, or start a coup.
Result: everything will work out great. This is incredible. It's also misleading. The only way this could turn into a larger conflict is by the US ignoring China's interests. As long China gets to install their own puppet government they won't care if Kim Jong Un is assasinated. The real danger isn't in how the US deals with North Korea. The danger is if they decide that now North Korea is in their sphere of interest and they get to dictate what happens after. Perhaps a deal can be made where China backs an invasion and actively takes part in it to remove the North Korean Government and unite the two countries under a democratic government, but the USA agrees to pull back military bases/forces from the Korean Peninsular after the war is over.
Perhaps, but I suspect the real barrier isn't China, but North Korea retaliating against South Korea during an invasion.
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On April 17 2017 05:44 bardtown wrote:
There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated.
This is the kind of fear mongering (and its associated call to military/sabotage action) that intensifies NK's need for nukes.
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On April 17 2017 06:55 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 05:44 bardtown wrote:
There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated. This is the kind of fear mongering (and its associated call to military/sabotage action) that intensifies NK's need for nukes.
This. Every time someone mentions sanctions, pressure, military intervention, NK vows to retaliate, probably poring every resource they have for food in to developing it's nukes and fires a few more test missiles. When NK feels that the foreigners have understood that the Kim dinasty is there to stay, and stop the threats and isolation maybe they will slow their nuclear program, or at least conduct their research more secretly without testing. There is no way in hell that South Korea will support any military intervention with some 11 thousand artillery, subs and different kinds of missile systems pointing at Seoul.
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United States24813 Posts
On April 17 2017 09:38 raga4ka wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 06:55 Sbrubbles wrote:On April 17 2017 05:44 bardtown wrote:
There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated. This is the kind of fear mongering (and its associated call to military/sabotage action) that intensifies NK's need for nukes. This. Every time someone mentions sanctions, pressure, military intervention, NK vows to retaliate, probably poring every resource they have for food in to developing it's nukes and fires a few more test missiles. When NK feels that the foreigners have understood that the Kim dinasty is there to stay, and stop the threats and isolation maybe they will slow their nuclear program, or at least conduct their research more secretly without testing. There is no way in hell that South Korea will support any military intervention with some 11 thousand artillery, subs and different kinds of missile systems pointing at Seoul.
Ignoring humanitarian crises is pretty cold. If the USA and other countries of the world could convince NK that we are all fine with dictatorships treating their people like crap, and that we won't intervene unless attacked directly, perhaps NK would reign in their spending and efforts on nukes, missiles, and artillery pointed at SK. Perhaps not (typically that's not how these things work, but I won't rule it out). However, it's pretty much impossible to convince NK of that because it's not true. Any dictator that does the horrible things that the Kim regime has done even just within the past few years is subject to intervention by major countries or alliances. To say otherwise is a global shift that affects more than just NK. You could argue that such a shift is justified, but again that's pretty cold.
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No good solutions. Welcome to geopolitics. This is what has kept me up at night for years, and yet nothing near my fears has occurred.
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On April 17 2017 06:55 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 05:44 bardtown wrote:
There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated. This is the kind of fear mongering (and its associated call to military/sabotage action) that intensifies NK's need for nukes.
Illogical. If they didn't have nukes and they weren't firing missiles into other countries' territories then nobody would be interested in them at all.
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On April 17 2017 19:15 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 06:55 Sbrubbles wrote:On April 17 2017 05:44 bardtown wrote:
There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated. This is the kind of fear mongering (and its associated call to military/sabotage action) that intensifies NK's need for nukes. Illogical. If they didn't have nukes and they weren't firing missiles into other countries' territories then nobody would be interested in them at all.
Yeah, like Iraq, which didn't have nukes and didn't fire missiles into other countries territories. Or Afghanistan. Or Ukraine. Nobody cared about them at all.
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On April 17 2017 20:09 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2017 19:15 bardtown wrote:On April 17 2017 06:55 Sbrubbles wrote:On April 17 2017 05:44 bardtown wrote:
There can be no peaceful collapse. There can be revolution (basically impossible because of their system) or a coup. You cannot just sit and wait while they increase the range of their nuclear missiles and amass more and more until they have the capability to destroy the entire US and finally feel safe. We have been trying to talk to them for years and years... it's extremely dubious to suggest that anything can be achieved through talking.
Whether they are insane or not is irrelevant. Most suicide bombers are not insane, they're just indoctrinated. This is the kind of fear mongering (and its associated call to military/sabotage action) that intensifies NK's need for nukes. Illogical. If they didn't have nukes and they weren't firing missiles into other countries' territories then nobody would be interested in them at all. Yeah, like Iraq, which didn't have nukes and didn't fire missiles into other countries territories. Or Afghanistan. Or Ukraine. Nobody cared about them at all.
Incorrect examples, NK it way more different problem then Iraq/Ukraine
The most militarized country in the world, military utopia that reminds USSR in ~1960, they are isolated and no one has any interest to make a relashionship with such creepy country. You can't fix their weird system of values that easily. The entire country of brainwashed slaves are glad to sacrifice themselves for Kim's dynasty and it doesn't matter who would it be, China, SK or USA. For decades they got no information abroad, they are not allowed to think the other way.
As for regime, I belive they understand that as soon as it falls - the leaders are jailed or dead cause of war crimes and other horrible shit they've done to own people, so there is no real reason for them to coup and why would anyone even consider coup with NK on such terms? The whole idea of their regime is based on thought - "we're the one and only island of piece and stability/prosperity in the world, and we are ready for a war!". And even if we all know it's a lies - locals have no idea, citizens won't break such regime on their own, so they need help from outside, but what kind of help remains a mystery honestly.
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EPT
