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President Obama Re-Elected - Page 1036

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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here.

The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301
mynameisgreat11
Profile Joined February 2012
599 Posts
October 25 2012 02:33 GMT
#20701
On October 25 2012 11:32 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:31 mynameisgreat11 wrote:
You guys should let xDaunt have his fun. He only has a couple more weeks to pretend.


To pretend that Obama still has a chance?




Ooooooh, snap!
Klondikebar
Profile Joined October 2011
United States2227 Posts
October 25 2012 02:34 GMT
#20702
On October 25 2012 11:26 BluePanther wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right


I'm sorry, but this thread has shown several times that Canada is probably the only country that has citizens that understand American politics even remotely well (and even then it's pretty shoddy when you get the the nuances). The rest of the world just hates republicans because they like to hate Bush. True Story.


Betting on elections is legal in Australia and their betting agencies predict American elections with alarming regularity. They aren't 100% accurate but they certainly understand American politics.
#2throwed
Mindcrime
Profile Joined July 2004
United States6899 Posts
October 25 2012 02:35 GMT
#20703
On October 25 2012 11:21 mynameisgreat11 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right


Looks like Pakistan didn't like the way Obama pronounced their country's name.


or violated its sovereignty
That wasn't any act of God. That was an act of pure human fuckery.
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-25 02:37:52
October 25 2012 02:37 GMT
#20704
On October 25 2012 11:29 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:26 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


And there it is...

RCP has the polling firm listed as (D) next to it's name. That does mean what I think it means right?

Reading comprehension isn't so good around here. Not only did Fox News not do the poll, but Fox News did not release the story....


Yep, I just knew someone would see "Fox" and assume it's FNC and claim bias. I am curious as to the internals of the poll though, can't seem to find them anywhere.
ThreeAcross
Profile Joined January 2011
172 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-25 02:39:33
October 25 2012 02:37 GMT
#20705
On October 25 2012 11:29 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:28 ThreeAcross wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


Local Fox =/= Fox News.

It is an interesting poll because Michigan has always been expected to be an Obama state. The fact that it is polling this close is surprising.


Even in August (before Ryan was introduced when Obama was a total shoe-in in the state) this polling firm showed a 4% Romney lead.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/mi-2012-president-48-romn_n_1819592.html

I'd hold my breath till I see enough polls to gauge this.


Good catch. I skimmed the release, but I couldn't find specifics on party affiliations. Will look into it more now before passing judgement.

Edit: Also, this was /after/ Ryan was announced. There was a specific question about how Ryan would affect a vote. So, it could just be a bounce from that.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-25 02:41:59
October 25 2012 02:39 GMT
#20706
On October 25 2012 11:37 ThreeAcross wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:29 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:28 ThreeAcross wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


Local Fox =/= Fox News.

It is an interesting poll because Michigan has always been expected to be an Obama state. The fact that it is polling this close is surprising.


Even in August (before Ryan was introduced when Obama was a total shoe-in in the state) this polling firm showed a 4% Romney lead.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/mi-2012-president-48-romn_n_1819592.html

I'd hold my breath till I see enough polls to gauge this.


Good catch. I skimmed the release, but I couldn't find specifics on party affiliations. Will look into it more now before passing judgement.


Yeah, I wanted to scan more of their polls, but as near as I can tell the only ones that got wide circulation showed Romney +14 in FL in August and Romney +4 in August in Wisconsin. If you find more I'd love to know, maybe those two were just flukes and they don't have any lean, but I can't find them.

Edit: Whoops, he was announced on 8/11? Holy cow time flies. I didn't realize I'd disliked the man so long. My bad. I /think/ the average bounce was less than +4 even five days later, though.
SayGen
Profile Joined May 2010
United States1209 Posts
October 25 2012 02:41 GMT
#20707
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right



That graph should be spread like wildfire, it will only help Romney.

anyone who thinks the rest of the world has Americas best intrests at heart is a fool.
The rest of the world hates us- why do anything they want- esp when it comes to policy decesion making.
Obama has failed on soo many things- it's about time to get him replaced.

More debt
Less freedom
More taxes
More broken promises
-----I say enough is enough you had 4 years to stop the bleeding- no one expected a full turnaround, but it's getting worse out there, you should of stopped the bleeding at least.

Good bye Obama please don't ever come back into politics.
We Live to Die
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-25 02:46:11
October 25 2012 02:42 GMT
#20708
On October 25 2012 11:37 ey215 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:29 xDaunt wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:26 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


And there it is...

RCP has the polling firm listed as (D) next to it's name. That does mean what I think it means right?

Reading comprehension isn't so good around here. Not only did Fox News not do the poll, but Fox News did not release the story....


Yep, I just knew someone would see "Fox" and assume it's FNC and claim bias. I am curious as to the internals of the poll though, can't seem to find them anywhere.

Most of the polls that I have seen still have party-ID internals way out of whack in favor of Obama. I have seen the arguments suggesting that this shouldn't matter, but I really am not convinced, if for no other reason than Romney has been crushing Obama among independents for months. Hell, I don't even really buy that there has been a 15-point swing towards Romney as these polls reflect. I simply can't imagine that there are really that many people who haven't made up their minds.
TotalBalanceSC2
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada475 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-25 02:53:19
October 25 2012 02:47 GMT
#20709
On October 25 2012 11:41 SayGen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right



That graph should be spread like wildfire, it will only help Romney.

anyone who thinks the rest of the world has Americas best intrests at heart is a fool.
The rest of the world hates us- why do anything they want- esp when it comes to policy decesion making.
Obama has failed on soo many things- it's about time to get him replaced.

More debt
Less freedom
More taxes
More broken promises
-----I say enough is enough you had 4 years to stop the bleeding- no one expected a full turnaround, but it's getting worse out there, you should of stopped the bleeding at least.

Good bye Obama please don't ever come back into politics.


You realize almost everyone not only wants America to do well, but NEEDS America to do well. Your economy has such a massive effect on the world that your economic state directly effects those of many other nations. Us Canadians for example need the US to be in good financial health to be able to buy our oil and wheat and lumber etc. to keep our economy going, since Canada is still primarily a resource based economy. That is just one local example, I am sure people can come up with others.

(On a sidenote we are your largest trading partner, even bigger than China)
nevermindthebollocks
Profile Joined October 2012
United States116 Posts
October 25 2012 02:47 GMT
#20710
On October 25 2012 11:26 BluePanther wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right


I'm sorry, but this thread has shown several times that Canada is probably the only country that has citizens that understand American politics even remotely well (and even then it's pretty shoddy when you get the the nuances). The rest of the world just hates republicans because they like to hate Bush. True Story.

and bush killed hundreds of thousands in the middle east and wrecked the global economy so maybe they know more about what the united states needs than many americans who would rather watch nascar and pro rasslin
Anarchy!
nevermindthebollocks
Profile Joined October 2012
United States116 Posts
October 25 2012 02:50 GMT
#20711
On October 25 2012 11:42 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:37 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:29 xDaunt wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:26 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


And there it is...

RCP has the polling firm listed as (D) next to it's name. That does mean what I think it means right?

Reading comprehension isn't so good around here. Not only did Fox News not do the poll, but Fox News did not release the story....


Yep, I just knew someone would see "Fox" and assume it's FNC and claim bias. I am curious as to the internals of the poll though, can't seem to find them anywhere.

Most of the polls that I have seen still have party-ID internals way out of whack in favor of Obama. I have seen the arguments suggesting that this shouldn't matter, but I really am not convinced, if for no other reason than Romney has been crushing Obama among independents for months. Hell, I don't even really buy that there has been a 15-point swing towards Romney as these polls reflect. I simply can't imagine that there are really that many people who haven't made up their minds.

so let me get this right, a poll that shows more support for obama must therfore be flawed?
Anarchy!
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
October 25 2012 02:50 GMT
#20712
On October 25 2012 11:42 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:37 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:29 xDaunt wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:26 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


And there it is...

RCP has the polling firm listed as (D) next to it's name. That does mean what I think it means right?

Reading comprehension isn't so good around here. Not only did Fox News not do the poll, but Fox News did not release the story....


Yep, I just knew someone would see "Fox" and assume it's FNC and claim bias. I am curious as to the internals of the poll though, can't seem to find them anywhere.

Most of the polls that I have seen still have voter-ID internals way out of whack in favor of Obama. I have seen the arguments suggesting that this shouldn't matter, but I really am not convinced, if for no other reason than Romney has been crushing Obama among independents for months. Hell, I don't even really buy that there has been a 15-point swing towards Romney as these polls reflect. I simply can't imagine that there are really that many people who haven't made up their minds.


I know the argument is that most of these polling firms are using a turnout model that is similar to the 2008 election. I don't buy that turnout model either. The question is how much does it change the polls?

One thing I'm curious about, is if the media keeps telling us that the party identification doesn't matter why does CNN go out of their way before announcing their debate night snap polls that more Republicans tend to watch the debates than Democrats and so the numbers may not reflect the actual electorate. (I think they end up with a 1/3 each D/R/I on that specific poll.)
BluePanther
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2776 Posts
October 25 2012 02:50 GMT
#20713
On October 25 2012 11:34 Klondikebar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:26 BluePanther wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right


I'm sorry, but this thread has shown several times that Canada is probably the only country that has citizens that understand American politics even remotely well (and even then it's pretty shoddy when you get the the nuances). The rest of the world just hates republicans because they like to hate Bush. True Story.


Betting on elections is legal in Australia and their betting agencies predict American elections with alarming regularity. They aren't 100% accurate but they certainly understand American politics.


Is that a poll of election experts or ordinary citizens? I'm pretty sure that's a poll of citizens.
sunprince
Profile Joined January 2011
United States2258 Posts
October 25 2012 02:51 GMT
#20714
On October 25 2012 11:35 Mindcrime wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:21 mynameisgreat11 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right


Looks like Pakistan didn't like the way Obama pronounced their country's name.


or violated its sovereignty


If they don't like it, maybe they should stop taking American foreign aid while harboring terrorist leaders.
BluePanther
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2776 Posts
October 25 2012 02:52 GMT
#20715
On October 25 2012 11:47 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:26 BluePanther wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:20 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Hey check this out. When you get away from fox news and get an unbiased view of who is better this is the result

[image loading]

single digits in almost every country for romney sounds about right


I'm sorry, but this thread has shown several times that Canada is probably the only country that has citizens that understand American politics even remotely well (and even then it's pretty shoddy when you get the the nuances). The rest of the world just hates republicans because they like to hate Bush. True Story.

and bush killed hundreds of thousands in the middle east and wrecked the global economy so maybe they know more about what the united states needs than many americans who would rather watch nascar and pro rasslin


Except my point is that in their minds, Republican = Bush. Any American who's honest about politics knows that's not true. But foreigners make that connection.

Also, foreigners are picking they president THEY want. They have THEIR interests driving THEIR opinion on who THEY want. This isn't a commentary on who they think will be best for US.
ziggurat
Profile Joined October 2010
Canada847 Posts
October 25 2012 02:53 GMT
#20716
[image loading]

I think most people in foreign countries know even less about american politics than americans. But the main reason for the difference is that Republicans (at least under Bush) had a very different attitude towards foreign policy than Obama or Clinton. In short:

Dems: Try to get what we want by acting nice
Repubs: Try to get what we want by acting tough

Of course other countries prefer niceness. Which actually works better is an open question.
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-25 02:55:18
October 25 2012 02:54 GMT
#20717
On October 25 2012 11:50 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:42 xDaunt wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:37 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:29 xDaunt wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:26 ey215 wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:22 Jaaaaasper wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.

The fact the it came from fox makes it look unreliable to my eye, but Obama has a lead even in their poll


And there it is...

RCP has the polling firm listed as (D) next to it's name. That does mean what I think it means right?

Reading comprehension isn't so good around here. Not only did Fox News not do the poll, but Fox News did not release the story....


Yep, I just knew someone would see "Fox" and assume it's FNC and claim bias. I am curious as to the internals of the poll though, can't seem to find them anywhere.

Most of the polls that I have seen still have party-ID internals way out of whack in favor of Obama. I have seen the arguments suggesting that this shouldn't matter, but I really am not convinced, if for no other reason than Romney has been crushing Obama among independents for months. Hell, I don't even really buy that there has been a 15-point swing towards Romney as these polls reflect. I simply can't imagine that there are really that many people who haven't made up their minds.

so let me get this right, a poll that shows more support for obama must therfore be flawed?


Many polls in August/September were using models that either had the same or larger margin of Democrats than the actual voting difference in the 2008 election. 2008 was an unprecedented turnout/wave election for Democrats and skeptics don't think that the difference will be as large this year. The "voter intensity" polling data points to that being the case.

Whether or not it skews the polls outside the margin of error is debatable.
BluePanther
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2776 Posts
October 25 2012 02:54 GMT
#20718
On October 25 2012 11:25 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 11:24 xDaunt wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:17 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 25 2012 11:08 xDaunt wrote:
Are we feeling the imminent blowout yet?

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%


Source.


So you're saying a poll conducted by a firm put Obama ahead? Oh no he'll lose! What's their past reliability? Do they have a history of partisan leaning? How reliable is their methodology? Perhaps most importantly, who did their results a week, two weeks, and a month ago show leading the race?

I mean c'mon, you don't see me posting the +3 Obama poll in Ohio for all those reasons.

Polls with ties below 50% are bad for incumbents, because undecideds tend to break for challengers. More importantly, this is Michigan, which should be solid blue Obama territory. Same with Pennsylvania. Romney is getting huge, unexpected support in these states with minimal to no expenditures of resources (more recently his campaign has been advertising in these states). All of Obama's efforts to keep Ohio won't matter if he loses these other states, and it is looking increasingly like he will. The movement over the past month unmistakably favors Romney.

Again, I think that the numbers are going to continue to drift towards Romney.


Their last poll of WI had Romney ahead by 4%. It's a gain for Obama over time. There's also not substantial evidence undecideds break for the challenger in presidential elections this late in the race.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/


When looking at Wisconsin, disregard any poll not done by Marquette. Trust me on this one.
DeepElemBlues
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States5080 Posts
October 25 2012 02:54 GMT
#20719
If the rest of the world has a problem with who we elect, they can remember that a democratic election means you can't complain about who wins, especially if its Hamas.
no place i'd rather be than the satellite of love
sunprince
Profile Joined January 2011
United States2258 Posts
October 25 2012 02:54 GMT
#20720
On October 25 2012 10:52 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2012 10:42 sunprince wrote:
On October 25 2012 10:33 Romantic wrote:
On October 25 2012 10:08 mynameisgreat11 wrote:
On October 25 2012 05:33 sc2superfan101 wrote:
so from now on, can anyone who is looking to ask a conservative/Republican a question about abortion and rape please refer that question to me so that I can answer it? Because apparently Republican politicians are having a hard time answering this question without sounding like misogynist asses. I mean how hard is this:

"Rape is one of the most heinous and terrible things that can happen to someone. We as a society have a moral duty to protect the victims and to pursue justice against the perpetrators, and it is my firm belief that we have a further obligation to provide the victims with as much help as humanly possible. As a {insert political/religious philosophy here}, I believe that all life is sacred, and I believe that the rights of the unborn child should be protected with every bit as much dedication and fervor as the rights of the mother."

but noooooooo... we can't be fucking politically savvy to save our gddamn lives. no way, Republicans have to start trying to redefine rape and wondering if maybe God didn't want the rape to happen or whatever the fuck that retard was saying. I mean, these are grown men and they can't even fucking get it right.

someone get them the hell out of my party because they make me look bad, and that's fucking saying something right there.


Which is why you're taking away the mother's right to choose what to do with her body.



I hate it when people arguing in favor of abortion reduce every argument down to this. You evil rights hater! Woman hater! People disagree on the value of fetuses. That is it. THAT IS IT. If you think fetuses are parasites and deserve no consideration you're fine with women killing them. If you think fetuses are much more valuable, even on the level of a born baby, you don't want people to be legally allowed to kill them. It is really simple.

Oh and yes the government routinely regulates peoples' lives down to the tiniest details. Funny how libertarian some people sound, but only in the context of aborting fetuses..


I would argue that even if you consider a fetus to have the same value as a sentient human being, it is still a violation of the mother's rights to force her to carry the fetus to term.

Just as we wouldn't force you to donate blood to save another human being, we shouldn't force women to be incubators if they choose not to.

i think politicians should all be asked if a 14 yr old girl wants an abortion should she get it and anyone who denises her that right is automatically dq'd. and none of this maybe if she pays $5000 or only if her parents say it is okay. if you wont protect freedom and dignity then you dont understand america


You need parental consent or special intervention by a court for all medical procedures on minors, and there's nothing wrong with that.
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